Increasingly modern science is helping to bring great clarity to an understanding of the very essence of our universe’s existence. Yet there remain some questions that will likely forever escape our ability to comprehend.
Some questions, such as the perennial “what is the meaning of life?” do not have a “Higgs-Boson” to provide a unifying hypothesis and can simultaneously provide contentment as well as contention.
I prefer to ask a very basic question that rarely has an answer. “What were they thinking?” Sometimes I ask a variant of that question – “What was I thinking?” Lately I’ve been asking the latter quite a bit.
What perplexes me, though, is how such two groups of smart people can convincingly commit themselves to opposite sides of an investment or so convincingly change their allegiances. I suppose that same observation can be applied toward the issue of nations going to war and then pursuing peace. The reasons aren’t always clear, yet the convictions are rock solid.
In this case, it’s one of my long time favorites and most recently under-performing stocks, Microsoft (MSFT) that is at the center of my attention. It happens to report earnings this coming week and any significant price changes ahead of earnings reflect conviction and large bets to back up that conviction.
For many, Microsoft has been an under-performer for a decade. I don’t look at it quite like that because of its option premiums and dividends while trading in a reasonably narrow price range. Lately, however, I haven’t been selling options as regularly as I had over nearly a decade of nearly continual share ownership. That’s because that price range had significantly narrowed and was well below my cost.
But this week really got my attention as shares skyrocketed, at least by Microsoft’s standards, about 6% over 2 days and surpassed $30. You may remember that $30 level, because that was just a bit above the level that many “smart” people finally publicly declared their love of the shares, just in tome to get in before a pronounced course reversal.
That was over a year ago. The price course higher was slow and under the radar. It’s rise, just as what happens to a frog in a pot of water that is slowly heated to the boiling point, went totally unrecognized by those that get paid for the opinions. The subsequent retreat, however was faster, but not of epic proportion.
But it was different this week. On no real news earlier in the week, shares surged. I don’t really recall the last time Microsoft had that kind of move higher without very positive news to propel it. I would assume, given it is a Dow Jones Index stock that it took the money of many smart people to make it rise as high and as quickly as it had done. I guess there was conviction behind the buying ahead of earnings. What else could account for the very high profile movement?
Then, just as quickly, actually even more quickly, the “smartest guys in the room” at Goldman Sachs (GS) downgraded Microsoft from “Neutral” to “Sell,” causing shares to fall 5% at time that the overall market was reaching for yet another new high. To be fair, Goldman Sachs tempered its conviction, having started at “Neutral” and not regressing downward to its “Conviction Sell” category.
Yet the market reacted with great conviction while I sat and asked the age old questions, happily having sold $29 calls earlier in the monthly cycle, finally getting back in that game as shares once again started a slow, below the radar ascent.
The reversals of late are frequent and very often without obvious catalyst, such as may be seen with shares of Baidu (BIDU) and Whole Foods (WFM). Then again, there weren’t necessarily catalysts to send them downward, either.
Sometimes reversing direction may take on a personal nature, as I’ve been bearish for more than a month and reluctant to commit to new positions while building cash and using longer term option contracts, where possible as often as possible. There does come a point when you begin to wonder what carries the greater cost. Missing out on further advances or chasing those advances. Although we don’t experience annual 20-30% gains very often, they do happen and they do have to start someplace. Maybe 10% over the first three months of the year is that place.
What’s missing though, is the conviction. My certainty of a correction was greater that is my current uncertainty. Having been wrong thus far shouldn’t be part of the equation, but it is hard to ignore.
For my personal trades I continue to be inclined to consider the increased safety of longer term monthly contracts, as I continue to expect some market correction, but I’m getting tired of waiting and missing out on some short term opportunities. Whatever convictions I may have or be evolving toward, I want to hedge those convictions.
In other words, I either have no convictions or am very flexible on them.
As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum and “PEE” categories, as earnings season gets into high gear this coming week (see details).
Walgreen (WAG) is one of those stocks that I regret having sold covered call options upon. It was also one of those rare instances in the past year that I waited to sell the options because I believed that shares would recover quickly from a precipitous drop. What i didn’t realize was just how great the recovery would be. Lately, the recoveries seem to be less quick and less robust, as the market appears to be more wary of mis-steps, even while in the midst of general enthusiasm. Despite impressive gains for the year, well ahead of the Health Care Index SPDR (XLV), Walgreen continues to be well poised to navigate through any health care model.
EMC Corp (EMC) in recent years has been defined by its wildly successful spin-off, VMWare (VMW). Following VMWare’s most recent disappointing guidance EMC has been defined by that guidance. I currently own shares and have also had other share lots assigned in the past few months. EMC reports earnings during the first week of the May 2013 option cycle, but appears to have developed support in the $23 level. I may consider adding shares or selling puts in advance of earnings, even though I am over-invested in the Technology sector and it has been under-performing.
McGraw Hill (MHP) continues its share rehabilitation after being put in the crosshairs of those that blame its actions for the past fiscal crisis. Whether it can successfully implement the famed “I was just doing my job” defense or not, it is still well below its previous trading levels.
Now that my cardiac rehabilitation has been completed, I don’t think I’ll ever need to don a pair of sneakers again. Fortunately, Footlocker (FL) can draw upon a population that isn’t very much like me and also sees fashion in pieces of rubber and cloth that are assembled far away by those that couldn’t qualify to work at FoxConn. It goes ex-dividend this week and although there is not a terribly large advantage to selling the option and attempting to also secure the dividend, it may be a good opportunity in a week that the general market is not showing large gains
As Chesapeake Energy (CHK) re-approached the $20 level that was my signal to purchase shares again after having owned numerous lots over the course of 2012. With much of the drama gone and the well deserved condemnation of telegraphing their need to sell assets at levels approaching distressed pricing, I think shares will actually even offer long term prospects, not just as a conduit for generating option premium income.
Joy Global (JOY) is one of those stocks that is very responsive to rumors concerning the Chinese economy, As much as Caterpillar (CAT) is increasingly levered to Chinese growth, Joy Global is much more so and has correspondingly larger moves upon news. Although I own Caterpillar and Deere (DE) at the moment, and those heavy movers are a little out of favor, with Joy Global near its yearly low and with earnings still a few weeks away, I may be tempted to pick up shares and capitalize on its always high option premium.
As the financial sector has been alternating between ups and downs in response to hypothetical stress tests and real stresses, none has been more responsive than Bank of America (BAC). After JP Morgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) reported earnings on Friday, April 12, 2013, it will be Bank of America’s turn next week. Having owned shares several times already this year, its shares have shown great resilience during that period. Although current option pricing doesn’t seem to be expecting a significant drop after earnings are released, it certainly is possible. However, the resilience provides me some reason to believe that even with a drop it won’t take an undue length of time to see shares ultimately assigned. The presence of extended weekly options on Bank of America also offers an expansion of strategies and premium price points.
Finally, Align Technology (ALGN) is just an incredible profit center for dentists that use the product. Speaking as a one time practicing dentist, basically an idiot can perform an increasingly wide range of orthodontic services utilizing the technology. It is one of the first stocks that I started following in order to validate the “PEE” thesis. Shares are very capable of large earnings related moves, but most recently the put premiums have become a little less welcoming, However, anything less than a 10% drop in share price can still result in a 1.3% ROI for the week. If you don’t mind the fact that its shares have dropped by 30% in the past in the aftermath of earnings that can be a good risk-reward offering, at least for some.
Traditional Stocks: EMC, McGraw Hill, Walgreen
Momentum Stocks: Chesapeake Energy, Joy Global
Double Dip Dividend: Footlocker (ex-div 4/17)
Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: Align Technology (4/18 PM), Bank of America (4/17 AM), Microsoft (4/18 PM)
Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. Some of the above selections may be sent to Option to Profit subscribers as actionable Trading Alerts, most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts. Alerts are sent in adjustment to and consideration of market movements, in an attempt to create a healthy income stream for the week with reduction of trading risk.
Some of the stocks mentioned in this article may be viewed for their past performance utilizing the Option to Profit strategy.