Daily Market Update – November 30, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update –  November 30, 2016 (Close)


This week not too much seemed to be happening, although the futures were pointing mildly higher in the morning.

That was happening as oil was surging, following a few days of sharp declines.

The backdrop to all of that was today’s OPEC meeting, as there was a volley of thought about whether OPEC will still be able to come to any kind of agreement that won’t find its various members cheating.

This morning, the belief was that OPEC would find a way to at least announce a production cut and energy prices were very sharply higher.

What made today really different was that at no pint in the day did the POEC agreement fall apart.

I think that it’s a good sign that the stock market futures weren’t following oil higher as they would have done just weeks ago.

It’s also a good sign that the stock market isn’t heading in the other direction as a response.

The reality is that whatever cuts OPEC implements that may result in an increase in end user price will quickly be met by non-OPEC member nations, such as the United States.

With a couple of new purchases this week and a rare DOH trade, my sights are now set on expiration Friday, which could still be a big mover, as our expectations are for good news from the Employment Situation Report.

From that perspective, all eyes are now on the FOMC meeting 2 weeks from today, with an expectation of a small interest rate increase.

Short of some huge surprise, there shouldn’t be much interest rate fear baked into pricing, so there’s not too much reason to expect any large moves in the next 2 weeks, although, this could be a “react on the news” sort of thing, even as it is so widely expected.

I’m fine with just sitting back and watching net asset value grow and taking whatever trade opportunities might come along, even if jumping the gun on rollovers.

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Daily Market Update – November 30, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  November 30, 2016 (8:00 AM)


This week not too much seems to be happening, although the futures are pointing mildly higher in the morning.

That’s happening as oil is surging, following a few days of sharp declines.

The backdrop to all of that is today’s OPEC meeting, as there is a volley of thought about whether OPEC will be able to come to any kind of agreement that won’t find its various members cheating.

This morning, the belief is that OPEC will find a way to at least announce a production cut and energy prices are very sharply higher.

I think that it’s a good sign that the stock market futures aren’t following oil higher as they would have done just weeks ago.

It’s also a good sign that the stock market isn’t heading in the other direction as a response.

The reality is that whatever cuts OPEC implements that may result in an increase in end user price will quickly be met by non-OPEC member nations, such as the United States.

With a couple of new purchases this week and a rare DOH trade, my sights are now set on expiration Friday, which could still be a big mover, as our expectations are for good news from the Employment Situation Report.

From that perspective, all eyes are now on the FOMC meeting 2 weeks from today, with an expectation of a small interest rate increase.

Short of some huge surprise, there shouldn’t be much interest rate fear baked into pricing, so there’s not too much reason to expect any large moves in the next 2 weeks, although, this could be a “react on the news” sort of thing, even as it is so widely expected.

I’m fine with just sitting back and watching net asset value grow and taking whatever trade opportunities might come along, even if jumping the gun on rollovers.

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Daily Market Update – November 29, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update –  November 29, 2016 (Close)


As the week is getting off to its start, it may look as if this may be a quiet week.

There are, however, a few things that were ahead this week that could have changed the breather from what is being called “The Trump Rally.”

That was the release of today’s GDP and then Friday’s Employment Situation reports.

There’s also the matter of that OPEC meeting that sent oil prices higher, once again in speculation that greedy partners could agree on anything, as we saw again today, may be an over-estimation of their abilities as a cartel.

Most recently, going back to about May, there have been a series of run ups in oil price predicated on that kind of agreement, only to be given back as greed won out.

Where that matters is that for much of 2016 oil and stocks have been closely linked.

At some point, though, maybe now, there will be the realization that in the face of an expanding economy the low price of oil is just great.

That should mean great for stocks, too, as the input price of energy has to be factored into just about every company’s profit and loss statement.

Today’s sharp decline in oil probably held the market back, but not as much as it would have a month or more ago. Maybe it was the revised GDP, now pointing to a 3.2% growth rate, that allowed the market to finish slightly higher,

After yesterday’s unexpectedly busy day of trading, I don’t expect to be doing much else for the rest of the week, other than looking for opportunities to roll over those 3 positions expiring this week and perhaps find some additional call sale opportunities or early rollover candidates.

In the meantime, I’ll just keep an eye on the news and events, as usual, content with this week’s income and wondering why all of 2016 couldn’t have been as busy as this Monday was.

In fact, it’s been more than a year since a typical Monday of trading has occurred, at least on a regular basis.

I don’t expect that will return anytime soon, but nothing in this realm feels better than the activity of trading if coupled with income generation and capital appreciation.

Here’s to 2017.

Maybe a return to earlier times.

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Daily Market Update – November 28, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  November 29, 2016 (7:30 AM)


As the week is getting off to its start, it may look as if this may be a quiet week.

There are, however, a few things ahead this week that could change the breather from what is being called “The Trump Rally.”

That’s the release of the GDP and the Employment Situation reports.

There’s also the matter of that OPEC meeting that sent oil prices higher, once again in speculation that greedy partners could agree on anything.

Most recently, going back to about May, there have been a series of run ups in oil price predicated on that kind of agreement, only to be given back as greed won out.

Where that matters is that for much of 2016 oil and stocks have been closely linked.

At some point, though, maybe now, there will be the realization that in the face of an expanding economy the low price of oil is just great.

That should mean great for stocks, too, as the input price of energy has to be factored into just about every company’s profit and loss statement.

After yesterday’s unexpectedly busy day of trading, I don’t expect to be doing much else for the rest of the week, other than looking for opportunities to roll over those 3 positions expiring this week and perhaps find some additional call sale opportunities or early rollover candidates.

In the meantime, I’ll just keep an eye on the news and events, as usual, content with this week’s income and wondering why all of 2016 couldn’t have been as busy as this Monday was.

In fact, it’s been more than a year since a typical Monday of trading has occurred, at least on a regular basis.

I don’t expect that will return anytime soon, but nothing in this realm feels better than the activity of trading if coupled with income generation and capital appreciation.

Here’s to 2017.

Maybe a return to earlier times.

.


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Daily Market Update – November 28, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update –  November 28, 2016 (Close)


This is likely to be the week that will confirm what the FOMC will do as they convene for their final meeting of 2016.

A year ago at this time, with whatever predicting power the members of the FOMC may have, they would never have predicted that there would not have been any interest rate increases prior to the final few weeks of 2016.

Their power to predict back at this time a year ago, was likely over-estimated.

Nonetheless, here we are.

This week we have a GDP Report and an Employment Situation Report and those should be the final bits of the equation.

You would have thought, though, that the FOMC would have been ahead of the curve.

Not only are those upcoming reports likely to suggest an ever strengthening economy, but the bond market has already effectively raised rates.

Just ask anyone in mid-mortgage application.

With a decent amount of cash to begin this week and no expiring positions, I would have ordinarily been interested in adding some new positions, but I did have 4 ex-dividend positions this week to account for that unending need for cash.

But that turned out to not be enough reason to sit on the sidelines, but I think that if the GDP and the Employment SItuation Report do point at a near certain increase from the FOMC, the response from investors may be a very positive one.

At least for now.

That’s what happened in 2015.

This time, though, I think it may continue for a while, as long as the increase is only 0.25% and the wording from the FOMC doesn’t suggest that another increase is right around the corner.

With that belief that there may be more to go on the upside, I was looking for any opportunity this week and am surprised at how many seemed to pop up, including any chance to rollover positions expiring in a few weeks as the December 2016 option cycle comes to its end.

There were actually some other trades that I was also hoping to make, in addition to the 4 that were completed, as I get ready to close out the books for the year.

Now, if every week could have gotten off to this kind of start, even with the nice gain on the year, I would never want to close out those books.

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Daily Market Update – November 28, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  November 28, 2016 (9:00 AM)


This is likely to be the week that will confirm what the FOMC will do as they convene for their final meeting of 2016.

A year ago at this time, with whatever predicting power the members of the FOMC may have, they would never have predicted that there would not have been any interest rate increases prior to the final few weeks of 2016.

Their power to predict back at this time a year ago, was likely over-estimated.

Nonetheless, here we are.

This week we have a GDP Report and an Employment Situation Report and those should be the final bits of the equation.

You would have thought, though, that the FOMC would have been ahead of the curve.

Not only are those upcoming reports likely to suggest an ever strengthening economy, but the bond market has already effectively raised rates.

Just ask anyone in mid-mortage application.

With a decent amount of cash to begin this week and no expiring positions, I would ordinarily be interested in adding some new positions, but I do have 4 ex-dividend positions this week.

That may be enough reason to sit on the sidelines, but I think that if the GDP and the EMployment SItuation Report do point at a near certain increase from the FOMC, the response from investors may be a very positive one.

At least for now.

That’s what happened in 2015.

This time, though, I think it may continue for a while, as long as the increase is only 0.25% and the wording from the FOMC doesn’t suggest that another increase is right around the corner.

With that belief that there may be more to go on the upside, I’ll be looking for any opportunity this week, but will also be looking ahead for any chance to rollover positions expiring in a few weeks as the December 2016 option cycle comes to its end and I get ready to close out the books for the year.

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Dashboard – November 28 – December 2, 2016

 

 

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:   The next few weeks will be focusing on the FOMC, but first we have to deal with this week’s GDP and Employment SItuation Report

TUESDAY:    It looks as if it may be another quiet day today, but the rest of the week may have reasons to react, or at least convince itself that it has reasons to react.

WEDNESDAY:  An increased GDP reported yesterday and who knows what comes on Friday, as the Employment SItuation Report is released? But most everyone knows what to expect in just 2 weeks as the FOMC meets and the market appears ready to accept an interest rate increase – as long as it’s a small one and doesn’t happen too often.

THURSDAY:  OK. December. The final dash is underway.

FRIDAY:. Employment Situation Report comes this morning and could swing market toward gains if the numbers convince everyone that the uncertainty is over. Of course, if the numbers aren’t so good, the market hates newly sown doubt.


 

 



 

                                                                                                                                           

Today's TradesCash-o-Meter

 

 

 





 “SNEAK PEEK AT NEXT WEEK” APPEARS ON FRIDAYS

Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Summary

  

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Weekend Update – November 27, 2016

For anyone who is capable of remembering the sentiment that pervaded markets less than 3 weeks ago, the continuing shattering of stock market records day after day has to come as a surprise.

For those that had the conviction of their opinions, and there were some very prominent people expecting a sell-off in the event of a Trump victory, you have to wonder whether it was worse to miss out on the rally or worse to have been so wrong while in the public eye.

As that watchful eye looked at the DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000, all ended the week closing at their all time highs.

Do you remember what happened when the FBI announced that they were looking into some emails discovered on a laptop owned by one of Hillary Clinton’s top aides? Do you then remember what happened when the all clear was then given just days ahead of the election?

The conventional wisdom was that the uncertainty associated with the unpredictability of a Trump Administration was the antithesis to what the stock market needed to move higher.

That conventional wisdom was certainly reflected in the stock market’s exaggerated movements.

Do you remember the worldwide overnight plunges when it appeared as if Donald Trump would emerge victorious?

And then a funny thing happened.

After a quick 500 point gain in the DJIA when all of those earlier convictions were thrown out the window, the market has just had a slow and steady climb higher.


Continue reading on Seeking Alpha


  

 

 

 

 

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Week In Review – November 21 – 25, 2016

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review


NOVEMBER 21 – 25, 2016

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
0  /   0  3 0 0   /   0 0   /   0 0 1

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

November 21 – 25, 2016

New Record, new record and more new records.

That pretty much sums things up, yet the S&P 500 is up only 8.3%.

Still a good year, but record after record, after record.

This week had no new positions opened as the S&P 500 advanced 1.5%, or about 20% of the year’s gain.

I was, once again, though pretty happy with this week, even though I didn’t open any new positions.

More importantly, while conserving cash from the previous week’s assignments, there was again opportunity to put some idle positions to work with the sale of calls on 3 uncovered positions.

With one ex-dividend position and those 3 call sales there was some generation of income, but there was also the ability to keep up with the advancing market.

Existing positions actually bested the market by 0.1% on the week, adding to their very good performance in 2016.

On paper, anyway, they are well ahead of the 8.3% advance in the S&P 500, but I’m always reluctant to talk about things like that until the profits are booked and not just on paper.

There were no new closed positions this week, so performance of closed positions in 2016 goes unchanged, still sitting with only 27 closed on the year, but still hoping to at least make it to a paltry 30 by the year’s end.

This was another week with  really not too much going on.

If anything, we just got one week closer to the FOMC’s next meeting and increasing certainty that there will be an interest rate increase at that time.

No panic, yet, and it’s looking as if there may not be any panic.

While we do hit these new highs, we’re not doing it in a way as to raise any eyebrows.

That’s exactly the way i
t was in 2007. We just wore higher and higher.

Nothing really spectacular, just hard earned positive days, but without those triple digit moves to make people giddy or nervous.

Because of that, I think that we are still headed even higher, unless something stunning happens in the next month or so.

Anything larger than a 0.25% rate increase, or anything that might question the validity of the Presidential election, could create some angst, but I’m not counting, nor hoping for either.

Next week does have the GDP and then the Employment Situation Report, nut unless they too have some really big surprises, there isn’t even anything any of the FOMC members speaking next week can really do or say to change investor sentiment.

With cash still on hand and with nothing on schedule for expiration next week, I take some solace in having about 4 ex-dividend positions. I wouldn’t mind a little bit of profit taking before considering spending any of that cash, but I’m very unlikely to go chasing the market if it moves higher.

If it does, I’ll just be happy to get some more paper profits and perhaps get a chance to sell some more calls or be in a better position to roll some positions over when the December 2016 option cycle is up for its expiration.

I otherwise expect to remain quiet again next week, but certainly wouldn’t mind another week like this one.

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  none

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:   none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: GMC, INTC, WY

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  none

< p>Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions    HFC (11/23 $0.33)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: GME (11/29 $0.37), MOS (11/29 $0.275), ANF )11/30 $0.20), BAC (11/30 $0.075)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



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Daily Market Update – November 25, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  November 18, 2016 (7:30 AM)


The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: none

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:     HFC (11/23 $0.33)

The following are ex-dividend next week: GME (11/29 $0.37), MOS (11/29 $0.275), ANF )11/30 $0.20), BAC (11/30 $0.075)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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