Daily Market Update – November 30, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update –  November 30, 2016 (Close)


This week not too much seemed to be happening, although the futures were pointing mildly higher in the morning.

That was happening as oil was surging, following a few days of sharp declines.

The backdrop to all of that was today’s OPEC meeting, as there was a volley of thought about whether OPEC will still be able to come to any kind of agreement that won’t find its various members cheating.

This morning, the belief was that OPEC would find a way to at least announce a production cut and energy prices were very sharply higher.

What made today really different was that at no pint in the day did the POEC agreement fall apart.

I think that it’s a good sign that the stock market futures weren’t following oil higher as they would have done just weeks ago.

It’s also a good sign that the stock market isn’t heading in the other direction as a response.

The reality is that whatever cuts OPEC implements that may result in an increase in end user price will quickly be met by non-OPEC member nations, such as the United States.

With a couple of new purchases this week and a rare DOH trade, my sights are now set on expiration Friday, which could still be a big mover, as our expectations are for good news from the Employment Situation Report.

From that perspective, all eyes are now on the FOMC meeting 2 weeks from today, with an expectation of a small interest rate increase.

Short of some huge surprise, there shouldn’t be much interest rate fear baked into pricing, so there’s not too much reason to expect any large moves in the next 2 weeks, although, this could be a “react on the news” sort of thing, even as it is so widely expected.

I’m fine with just sitting back and watching net asset value grow and taking whatever trade opportunities might come along, even if jumping the gun on rollovers.

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Daily Market Update – November 30, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  November 30, 2016 (8:00 AM)


This week not too much seems to be happening, although the futures are pointing mildly higher in the morning.

That’s happening as oil is surging, following a few days of sharp declines.

The backdrop to all of that is today’s OPEC meeting, as there is a volley of thought about whether OPEC will be able to come to any kind of agreement that won’t find its various members cheating.

This morning, the belief is that OPEC will find a way to at least announce a production cut and energy prices are very sharply higher.

I think that it’s a good sign that the stock market futures aren’t following oil higher as they would have done just weeks ago.

It’s also a good sign that the stock market isn’t heading in the other direction as a response.

The reality is that whatever cuts OPEC implements that may result in an increase in end user price will quickly be met by non-OPEC member nations, such as the United States.

With a couple of new purchases this week and a rare DOH trade, my sights are now set on expiration Friday, which could still be a big mover, as our expectations are for good news from the Employment Situation Report.

From that perspective, all eyes are now on the FOMC meeting 2 weeks from today, with an expectation of a small interest rate increase.

Short of some huge surprise, there shouldn’t be much interest rate fear baked into pricing, so there’s not too much reason to expect any large moves in the next 2 weeks, although, this could be a “react on the news” sort of thing, even as it is so widely expected.

I’m fine with just sitting back and watching net asset value grow and taking whatever trade opportunities might come along, even if jumping the gun on rollovers.

.


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Daily Market Update – November 29, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update –  November 29, 2016 (Close)


As the week is getting off to its start, it may look as if this may be a quiet week.

There are, however, a few things that were ahead this week that could have changed the breather from what is being called “The Trump Rally.”

That was the release of today’s GDP and then Friday’s Employment Situation reports.

There’s also the matter of that OPEC meeting that sent oil prices higher, once again in speculation that greedy partners could agree on anything, as we saw again today, may be an over-estimation of their abilities as a cartel.

Most recently, going back to about May, there have been a series of run ups in oil price predicated on that kind of agreement, only to be given back as greed won out.

Where that matters is that for much of 2016 oil and stocks have been closely linked.

At some point, though, maybe now, there will be the realization that in the face of an expanding economy the low price of oil is just great.

That should mean great for stocks, too, as the input price of energy has to be factored into just about every company’s profit and loss statement.

Today’s sharp decline in oil probably held the market back, but not as much as it would have a month or more ago. Maybe it was the revised GDP, now pointing to a 3.2% growth rate, that allowed the market to finish slightly higher,

After yesterday’s unexpectedly busy day of trading, I don’t expect to be doing much else for the rest of the week, other than looking for opportunities to roll over those 3 positions expiring this week and perhaps find some additional call sale opportunities or early rollover candidates.

In the meantime, I’ll just keep an eye on the news and events, as usual, content with this week’s income and wondering why all of 2016 couldn’t have been as busy as this Monday was.

In fact, it’s been more than a year since a typical Monday of trading has occurred, at least on a regular basis.

I don’t expect that will return anytime soon, but nothing in this realm feels better than the activity of trading if coupled with income generation and capital appreciation.

Here’s to 2017.

Maybe a return to earlier times.

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Daily Market Update – November 28, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  November 29, 2016 (7:30 AM)


As the week is getting off to its start, it may look as if this may be a quiet week.

There are, however, a few things ahead this week that could change the breather from what is being called “The Trump Rally.”

That’s the release of the GDP and the Employment Situation reports.

There’s also the matter of that OPEC meeting that sent oil prices higher, once again in speculation that greedy partners could agree on anything.

Most recently, going back to about May, there have been a series of run ups in oil price predicated on that kind of agreement, only to be given back as greed won out.

Where that matters is that for much of 2016 oil and stocks have been closely linked.

At some point, though, maybe now, there will be the realization that in the face of an expanding economy the low price of oil is just great.

That should mean great for stocks, too, as the input price of energy has to be factored into just about every company’s profit and loss statement.

After yesterday’s unexpectedly busy day of trading, I don’t expect to be doing much else for the rest of the week, other than looking for opportunities to roll over those 3 positions expiring this week and perhaps find some additional call sale opportunities or early rollover candidates.

In the meantime, I’ll just keep an eye on the news and events, as usual, content with this week’s income and wondering why all of 2016 couldn’t have been as busy as this Monday was.

In fact, it’s been more than a year since a typical Monday of trading has occurred, at least on a regular basis.

I don’t expect that will return anytime soon, but nothing in this realm feels better than the activity of trading if coupled with income generation and capital appreciation.

Here’s to 2017.

Maybe a return to earlier times.

.


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Daily Market Update – November 28, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update –  November 28, 2016 (Close)


This is likely to be the week that will confirm what the FOMC will do as they convene for their final meeting of 2016.

A year ago at this time, with whatever predicting power the members of the FOMC may have, they would never have predicted that there would not have been any interest rate increases prior to the final few weeks of 2016.

Their power to predict back at this time a year ago, was likely over-estimated.

Nonetheless, here we are.

This week we have a GDP Report and an Employment Situation Report and those should be the final bits of the equation.

You would have thought, though, that the FOMC would have been ahead of the curve.

Not only are those upcoming reports likely to suggest an ever strengthening economy, but the bond market has already effectively raised rates.

Just ask anyone in mid-mortgage application.

With a decent amount of cash to begin this week and no expiring positions, I would have ordinarily been interested in adding some new positions, but I did have 4 ex-dividend positions this week to account for that unending need for cash.

But that turned out to not be enough reason to sit on the sidelines, but I think that if the GDP and the Employment SItuation Report do point at a near certain increase from the FOMC, the response from investors may be a very positive one.

At least for now.

That’s what happened in 2015.

This time, though, I think it may continue for a while, as long as the increase is only 0.25% and the wording from the FOMC doesn’t suggest that another increase is right around the corner.

With that belief that there may be more to go on the upside, I was looking for any opportunity this week and am surprised at how many seemed to pop up, including any chance to rollover positions expiring in a few weeks as the December 2016 option cycle comes to its end.

There were actually some other trades that I was also hoping to make, in addition to the 4 that were completed, as I get ready to close out the books for the year.

Now, if every week could have gotten off to this kind of start, even with the nice gain on the year, I would never want to close out those books.

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