Daily Market Update – June 30, 2015 (Close)

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – June 30, 2015  (Close)

 

Yesterday’s 350 point loss on the realization that a deadline was looming for Greece and the European Union to come to some kind of a short term agreement was, as these things usually are, well overblown.

I’m not necessarily of the belief that the market is entitled to just keep going higher and higher and I would like to see some kind of correction and ensuing increase in volatility, but yesterday’s action wasn’t really warranted.

The situation in Greece is also not the kind of thing that should be expected to supress our own markets for very long as, if anything, instability in Europe just makes us a better alternative, in the same way that the introduction of Quantitative Easing by the ECB made Europe a better investing alternative.

There can be no sane person who would have thought that a solution to the Greek debt crisis would come at any time other than at the 11th hour. To have waited until then to express surprise by dumping stocks doesn’t make too much sense, particularly if you still hold onto the belief that the market is a discounting mechanism.

This morning there’s some guarded optimism that a solution, at least for the current problem of a payment due to the ECB, may be at hand. Of course, that still leaves a payment that will be due to the IMF in about a month and it leaves a bigger picture of just what happens if Greek debt is written down or forgiven, as the Greek government believes is appropriate, to the other debtor nations in the EU.

For the EU, Greece itself is small potatoes, but what it may unleash could be the real thing.

The market has a long way to go if it’s going to erase yesterday’s 350 point loss. This morning’s pre-open futures indicated that it may at least try, but that attempt wouldn’t even be close to recapturing the losses even if it had been able to be sustained throughout the session.

Which it wasn’t

While a triple digit gain in the futures would ordinarily be a reason to feel optimistic, this morning it could only raise the quetion of “that’s all?”

While yesterday’s decline was the largest in quite a while, it is emblematic of a market that has alternated between ups and downs and made little net movement in 2015. Yesterday’s loss wiped out index gains for 2015. While for a single day a 350 point decline is big, if that was your margin between a gain and a loss after 6 months, you really didn’t accomplish too much in the course of those 6 months.

And when the 6 months did come to its end at the end of today’s trading, you really do have to wonder why all of that energy was expended to end up having gone nowhere.

With a little bit of cash still remaining after actually having made a purchase yesterday, I would be more than content to sit back and let the market regain whatever it could and just bring us to Thursday’s sentinel event; the Employment Situation Report.

Unfortunately, it didn’t regain too much today and so that still leaves Thursday.

There
‘s reason to believe that the employment statistics will again reflect a strengthening economy and that could easily upset those worried about interest rates.

But that’s another issue where you have to wonder what it is that will catch anyone by surprise. Janet Yellen has more than telegraphed that an interest rate increase will be coming and that it will likely be small and it would be an automatically recurring one.

So why panic?

Why not discount the high likelihood that the rate increase will happen and just move on?

I know that there’s no answer to that question, but it is a continually frustrating one especially when it’s so apparent that there’s limited capability of learning from the past.

At least we’ll have earnings season beginning once again to maybe act as a counter-balance to external events and get stocks to react to fundamentals, even if only for a short while.

 

 

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Daily Market Update – June 30, 3015

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – June 30, 2015  (8:45 AM)

 

Yesterday’s 350 point loss on the realization that a deadline was looming for Greece and the European Union to come to some kind of a short term agreement was, as these things usually are, well overblown.

I’m not necessarily of the belief that the market is entitled to just keep going higher and higher and I would like to see some kind of correction and ensuing increase in volatility, but yesterday’s action wasn’t really warranted.

The situation in Greece is also not the kind of thing that should be expected to supress our own markets for very long as, if anything, instability in Europe just makes us a better alternative, in the same way that the introduction of Quantitative Easing by the ECB made Europe a better investing alternative.

There can be no sane person who would have thought that a solution to the Greek debt crisis would come at any time other than at the 11th hour. To have waited until then to express surprise by dumping stocks doesn’t make too much sense, particularly if you still hold onto the belief that the market is a discounting mechanism.

This morning there’s some guarded optimism that a solution, at least for the current problem of a payment due to the ECB, may be at hand. Of course, that still leaves a payment that will bve due to the IMF in about a month and it leaves a bigger picture of just what happens if Greek debt is written down or forgiven, as the Greek government believes is appropriate, to the other debtor nations in the EU.

For the EU, Greece itself is small potatoes, but what it may unleash could be the real thing.

The market has a long way to go if it’s going to erase yesterday’s 350 point loss. This morning’s pre-open futures indicate that it may at least try, but that attempt wouldn’t even be close to recapturing the losses.

While a triple digit gain in the futures would ordinarily be a reason to feel optimistic, this morning it may only raise the quetion of “that’s all?”

While yesterday’s decline was the largest in quite a while, it is emblematic of a market that has alternated between ups and downs and made little net movement in 2015. Yesterday’s loss wiped out index gains for 2015. While for a single day a 350 point decline is big, if that was your margin between a gain and a loss after 6 months, you really didn’t accomplish too much in the course of those 6 months.

With a little bit of cash still remaining after actually having made a purchase yesterday, I would be more than content to sit back and let the market regain whatever it could and just bring us to Thursday’s sentinel event; the Employment Situation Report.

There’s reason to believe that the employment statistics will again reflect a strengthening economy and that could easily upset those worried about interest rates.

But that’s another issue where you have to wonder what it is that will catch anyone by surprise. Janet Yellen has more than telegraphed that an interest rate increase will be coming and that it will likely be small and it would be an automatically recurring one.

So why panic?

Why not discount the high likelihood that the rate increase will happen and just move on?

I know that there’s no answer to that question, but it is a continually frustrating one especially when it’s so apparent that there’s limited capability of learning from the past.

At least we’ll have earnings season beginning once again to maybe act as a counter-balance to external events and get stocks to react to fundamentals, even if only for a short while.

 

 

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Daily Market Update – June 29, 2015 Close

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – June 29, 2015  (Close)

 

It may be a good thing that this is going to be a holiday shortened week.

It may be a week of bookends, as the week was getting off to a very negative start on news yesterday of Greece closing its banks to avoid a run on deposits. The week will end on Thursday, as the Employment SItuation Report will be released and could revive fears of an interest rate increase again.

This morning’s pre-open futures were pointing to a nearly 200 point decline on the DJIA, but that represented a much better state than was the case yesterday evening as the DJIA was down 300 points.

Too bad that didn’t matter, as even a 300 point loss would have been better than the eventiual 350 point loss.

It’s hard to believe that the situation this morning would have been unexpected, as it’s difficult to point to a single situation over the years that has had a hard deadline but where a resolution occured well in advance of that deadline.

In this case the hard deadline in July 1, but the difference may be that even with two days remaining until that deadline, it doesn’t look as if a solution will be achieved in time. It’s not  easy for the Greek government to come to an agreement with its creditors by July 1st, if it’s calling for a referendum by its citizens on July 5th.

So that’s what we will be dealoing with as the week was ready to begin.

While most everyone believes that we are long overdue for a correction, somehow I don’t believe that this will end up being the precipitating factor. Despite a terrible day in overseas markets, including the Chinese markets that are having their own issues, this sort of worldwide weakness usually drives investors to safety and that means money flowing into the US.

Of course, first you have to get over the initial shock of what shouldn’t have been a shock to anyone.

Following that initial shock, we are now about 4% lower on the S&P 500. That’s almost mini-correction territory.

With a little more cash on hand after a single assignment last week, but with only two positions set to expire this week, it looked like another very quiet week of trading ahead as the morning started.

It’s not easy to imagine that this week could be even quieter than last week,  but it was certainly within the realm of possibility, particularly with one less day of trading opportunity.

Even with weakness this morning, which can be tempting to want to take advantage of, it may not be the opening to do so. If doing so, the question may become one of deciding between the trading week shortened premiums available this week or using an extended weekly option.

However, since I want to retain cash, or at least have a decent chance of recycling it so that it can also be used next week, it may be better to take the paltry premiums available this week, which may get a little bump higher from the added volatility this morning.

Still, my prevailing mood is one of penury. I don’t really want to be spending down the cash reserve.

With that mindset, the trade in Cisco, to capture its dividend, looked good, until the market decided to begin a second phase downward.

Now, after having made that trade and watching the DJIA move down about another 200 points from the time of that trade, I really don’t want to be spending down what remains of the cash reserve. That’s especially true as Thursday’s Employment Situation Report could be the second of this week’s one – two punch and it’s not easy justifying why you would take on additional risk in advance of what is known to be a sensitive area and one that has provoked some fear when it has given good news.

The expectation has to be for more of the good news to continue and that would be likely met in a pessimistic way by those who have been sensitive to the prospects of rising interest rates.

For now, that means the entire market. But just as they will be able to get past the European banking crisis and the possible loss of an EU member nation, they’ll learn to get over a small, non-recurring increase in interest rates, especially if next week’s earnings get off on the right foot.


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Daily Market Update – June 29, 2015

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – June 29, 2015  (9:00 AM)

 

It may be a good thing that this is going to be a holiday shortened week.

It may be a week of bookends, as the week is getting off to a very negative start on news yesterday of Greece closing its banks to avoid a run on deposits. The week will end on Thursday, as the Employment SItuation Report will be released and could revive fears of an interest rate increase again.

This morning’s pre-open futures are pointing to a nearly 200 point decline on the DJIA, but that represents a much better state than was the case yesterday evening as the DJIA was down 300 points.

It’s hard to believe that the situation this morning would have been unexpected, as it’s difficult to point to a single situation over the years that has had a hard deadline but where a resolution occured well in advance of that deadline.

In this case the hard deadline in July 1, but the difference may be that even with two days remaining until that deadline, it doesn’t look as if a solution will be achieved in time. It’s not  easy for the Greek government to come to an agreement with its creditors by July 1st, if it’s calling for a referendum by its citizens on July 5th.

So that’s what we will be dealoing with as the week is ready to begin.

While most everyone believes that we are long overdue for a correction, somehow I don’t believe that this will end up ebing the precipitating factor. Despite a terrible day in overseas markets, including the CHinese markets that are having their own issues, this sort of worldwide weakness usually drives investors to safety and that means money flowing into the US.

Of course, first you have to get over the initial shock of what shouldn’t have been a shock to anyone.

With a little more cash on hand after a single assignment last week, but with only two positions set to expire this week, it looks like another very quiet week of trading ahead.

It’s not easy to imagine that this week could be even quietr than last week, , but it’s certainly within the realm of possibility, particularly with one less day of trading opportunity.

Even with weakness this morning, which can be tempting to want to take advantage of, it may not be the opening to do so. If doing so, the question may become one of deciding between the trading week shortened premiums available this week or using an extended weekly option.

However, since I want to retain cash, or at least have a decent chance of recycling it so that it can also be used next week, it may be better to take the paltry premiums available this week, which may get a little bump higher from the added volatility this morning.

Still, my prevailing mood is one of penury. I don’t really want to be spending down the cash reserve.

That’s especially true as Thursday’s Employment Situation Report could be the second of this week’s one – two punch and it’s not easy justifying why you would take on additional risk in advance of what is known to be a sensitive area and one that has provoked some fear when it has given good news.

The expectation has to be for more of the good news to continue and that would be likely met i
n a pessimistic way by those who have been sensitive to the prospects of rising interest rates.

For now, that means the entire market. But just as they will be able to get past the European banking crisis and the possible loss of an EU member nation, they’ll learn to get over a small, non-recurring increase in interest rates, especially if next week’s earnings get off on the right foot.


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Dashboard – June 29 – July 2, 2015

 

 

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:   Although the pre-opening futures aren’t as bad this morning as they were yesterday evening as the Greek debt crisis will be coming to a head, it will be a day to strap on, as the opening day of a shortened week isn’t looking very welcoming

TUESDAY:   It will take an awfully big bounce to make up for yesterday’s 350 point loss. The pre-opening futures are making an attempt, as today is the day that Greece must decide whether to come to an agreement with its lenders, although the story could start anew next month as more money is due.

WEDNESDAY:  So Greece is now in default, but maybe a deal can be made? At least that’s what may be lifting the market this morning, but if the futures gains do hold, as yesterday’s didn’t, it’s still a long way from voiding Monday’s plummet.

THURSDAY:  The pre-open futuers are quiet ahead of this week’s early Employment Situation Report, as the real excitement may not begin until Monday, when the results of the Greek referendum become known.

FRIDAY:. Have a Happy and Safe FOurth of July

 

 

 

 

 



 

                                                                                                                                           

Today's TradesCash-o-Meter

 

 

 





 “SNEAK PEEK AT NEXT WEEK” APPEARS ON FRIDAYS

Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Summary

  

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Weekend Update – June 28, 2015

To call the stock market of this past week “a dog” probably isn’t being fair to dogs.

Most everyone loves dogs, or at least can agree that others may be able to see some positive attributes in the species. It’s hard, however, to have similar equanimity, even begrudgingly so, toward the markets this week.

What started off strongly on Monday and somehow wasn’t completely disavowed the following day, devolved unnecessarily on Wednesday and without any strong reason for doing so.

In fact, it was a week of very little economic news. We were instead focused on societal news that likely made little to no impression on the markets as a whole, although one sector did stand out.

That sector was health care, as the Supreme Court’s decision on the Affordable Care Act was a re-affirmation of a key component of the legislation and delayed any need to come up with an alternative, while still allowing Presidential contenders to criticize it heading into election season.

That’s a win – win.

It also keeps the number of uninsured at their lowest levels ever and puts more money in the pockets of hospitals and insurers, alike.

That’s another win – win.

While those two are usually on the opposite sides of most health care related arguments investors definitely agreed that the Affordable Care Act was and will continue to be additive to their bottom lines.

There is no health care flag, however.

The “Rainbow Flag” got a big thumbs up last week as the Supreme Court re-affirmed the right to dignity and the universal right to have access to divorce courts. The Court’s decision and its impact on businesses and the economy was a topic of speculation that was designed to fill air time and empty columns in the business section, as it came on a quiet day to end the week.

The Confederate Flag, of course, got a big thumbs down, after 150 years of quiet and thoughtful deliberation over its merits and what it represented. The decision by major retailers to stop sales of items with the Confederate flag on them can only mean that their demand wasn’t very significant and those items will probably be sent overseas, just as is done with the tee shirts of the losing Super Bowl team, so we can expect to see lots of photos of strangely attired impoverished third world children in the future.

And that leaves Greece, the EU, the IMF and the World Bank. For those most part, those aren’t part of our societal concerns, but they do concern markets.

Just not too much this past week.

The European Union was very forward thinking in the design of its flag. Rather than being concrete and having the 12 stars represent its member nations, those stars are said to represent characteristics of those member states. In other words Greece could leave the EU and the flag remains unchanged. Although the symbolism of the stars being arranged in a circle to represent “unity” may have to come under some scrutiny.

The growing realization is that would likely not be the same for the EU itself, as an exit by Greece would ultimately be “de minimis.” Either way, we should get some more information this week, as IMF chief Christine Legarde’s June 30th line in the sand regarding Greece’s repayment is quickly approaching.

It may be too late for a proposed “Plan B” for Greece to prevent default, as the European Union is now in its 86th trimester.

Still, despite a week of little news, somehow it was another week of pronounced moves in both directions that ultimately managed to travel very little from home.

New and existing home sales data suggested a strengthening in that important sector and the revised GDP indicated that the first quarter wasn’t as much of a dog as we all had come to believe. But there really wasn’t enough additional corroborating data to make anyone jump to the conclusion that core inflation was now exceeding the same objective that Janet Yellen had just stated weren’t being met.

So any concerns about improving economic news shouldn’t have led anyone to begin expressing their fears of increased interest rates by selling their stocks.

But it did.

Wednesday’s sell-off followed the news that the revised 2015 first quarter GDP was only down by 0.2% and not the previously revised 0.7%.

That makes it seem as if nerves and expectations for a long overdue correction or even a long overdue mini-correction are ruling over common sense and rational thought.

As usual, the week’s poten
tial stock selections are classified as being in Traditional, Double-Dip Dividend, Momentum or “PEE” categories.

The coming week is a holiday shortened one and will have the Employment Situation Report coming on Thursday, potentially adding to interest rate nervousness if numbers continue to be strong.

After Micron Technology’s (NASDAQ:MU) earnings disappointment last week it may be understandable why a broad brush was used within the technology sector to drive prices considerably lower on Friday. However, it wasn’t Micron Technology that introduced the weakness. The past two weeks haven’t been particularly kind to the sector.

At a time that I’m under-invested in technology and otherwise very reluctant to commit new funds, the sector has a disproportionate share of my attention in competition for whatever little I’m willing to let go.

With Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) having also recently reported disappointing earnings and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX) reporting in the next 3 weeks, it may be an interesting period.

While Micron Technology brought up concerns about PC sales, they are more dependent upon those than some others that have found salvation in laptops, tablets and mobile devices.

What was generally missing from Micron’s report, however, was placing the blame for lower revenues on currency exchange, unlike as was just done by Oracle. Micron focused squarely on decreasing product demand and pricing pressure.

That lack of adverse impact from currency exchange is a theme that I’m expecting as the upcoming earnings season begins. Whereas the previous earnings reports provided dour guidance on expectations of USD/Euro parity, the Dollar’s relative weakness in the most recent quarter may provide some upside surprises.

With share prices in Microsoft and Intel having dropped, this may be a good time to add positions in both, as they could both be significant beneficiaries of an improvement in currency exchange, as both await any bump coming from the introduction of Windows 10. I haven’t owned shares of Microsoft for a while and have been looking for a new entry point. At the same time, I do own shares of Intel and have been looking for an opportunity to average down and ultimately leave the position, or at least underwrite some of the paper losses with premiums on contracts written on an additional lot of shares.

While Seagate Technology doesn’t report its earnings until July 15th, following its weakness over the last 7 weeks, I’m considering the sale of puts in the weeks in advance of earnings. Those premiums are elevated and will become even more so during the actual week of earnings. In the event of an adverse price move, there might be a need to rollover the puts to try and avoid or delay assignment. However, at some point in the August 2015 option cycle the shares will be ex-dividend, so a shift in strategy, pivoting to share ownership maybe called for if still short the put options.

While Oracle and Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) don’t report earnings for a while, both have upcoming ex-dividend dates that add to their appeal. In the case of Oracle, it’s ex-dividend date is on Monday of the following week, which opens the possibility of ceding the dividend to early assignment in exchange for getting two weeks of premium and the opportunity to recycle proceeds from an assignment into another income producing position.

Also going ex-dividend on the Monday of the following week is The Gap (NYSE:GPS). It is one of my favorite stocks, even though it rarely seems to be doing anything right these days.

Part of its allure is that it continues to provide monthly sales data and the uncertainty with those report releases consistently creates option premium opportunities usually seen only quarterly for most stocks as they prepare to release earnings.

As long as The Gap continues to trade in a range, as it has done for quite some time, there is opportunity by holding shares and serially selling calls, while collecting dividends, as the company attempts to figure out what it wants to be, as it closes stores, yet announces plans to take over the Times Square Toys ‘R Us location, for those NYC tourists that just have to jet a pair of khakis to remember their trip.

Finally, American Express (NYSE:AXP) goes ex-dividend this week. It has been extremely range bound ever since the initial shock of losing its co-branding relationship with Costco (NASDAQ:COST) in 2016.

My wife informed me this morning that after about 30 years of near exclusive use of American Express, she has replaced it with another credit card. While that’s not related to the Costco news, it is something that American Express will likely be experiencing more and more in the coming months. That may, of course, explain the spate of mailings I’ve recently received to entice continuing loyalty.

While that comes at a cost, that’s still tomorrow’s problem and the market has likely discounted the costs of the partnership dissolution, as well as the lost revenues.

I like the price range and I like the option premium and dividend opportunities for as long as they may persist, but my loyalty to shares may only go for a week at a time.

Traditional Stocks: Intel, Microsoft

Momentum Stocks: Seagate Technology

Double-Dip Dividend: American Express (6/30), Cisco (7/1), Oracle (7/6), The Gap (7/6)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: none

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. The above selections may become actionable, most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts, in adjustment to and consideration of market movements. The overriding objective is to create a healthy income stream for the week with reduction of trading risk.

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Week in Review – June 22 – 26, 2015

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

June 22 – 26, 2015

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
0 / 0 2 1 1 /  0 3  /  0 0 1

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

June 22 – 26 2015

Still Another week with no new positions opened and if not for finally a little bit of buyer interest in an otherwise very quiet options market today, it was almost the first week of not executing a single trade.

There continues to be nothing to make one want to commit money to new positions.

As with last week and the week before,  whatever surges higher there were, became largely erased as the market showed no ability to consolidate its activity in either direction. 

The S&P 500 ended the week 0.4% lower despite a very nice start to begin the week that saw a triple digit gain in the DJIA.

There was, however, an assignment for the week and just a little more cash added to the still too small reserve. The 44 closed lots in 2015 continue to out-perform the market. They are an average of 5.0% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been 1.3% higher. That  3.7% difference represents a 283.3% performance differential.  

Up until Friday, it was really looking as if the unthinkable was going to happen.

Not that there weren’t attempts to get some trades executed earlier in the week, but the options market has been very, very quiet, other than for names in the news.

Most of the activity has been related to buy outs and takeovers and has been very isolated by sector. Most everything else in the broader market has continued to be weak and the options market has reflected a belief that lots of those stocks weren’t likely to be heading higher in the near term.

That’s made it very difficult to get anything resembling fair prices, especially when looking at rollovers. In those cases the cost of buying back option contracts in order to close a position before opening a new one is just too expensive relative to the pitiful premiums in forward weeks.

The lack of optimism may also be reflected in the less than effusive way IPOs were received this week, as the market wa beginning to see a peak in IPOs and was beginning to lose some appetite for them, perhaps remembering what tends to happen when the market gets into an IPO frenzy stage.

WIth the exception of some GDP news, there wasn’t much of interest that really moved markets this week, but they did move, although as in previous weeks, the market didn’t really go anywhere after it was all said and done.

Most of the news, even the Greek banking crisis news did little to get the market’s attention this week, as it was a week where most attention was directed toward the Supreme Court and the rulings that were handed down this week.

On a societal level it was a very busy week, but on an economic level it was about as quiet as it can get.

With that out of the picture, next week’s holiday shortened week that comes a week before earnings season starts all over again, is likely to be another abysmally quiet one for my trading.

With just a little more in cash reserves, it’s still well below where I’d like to see my cash position, so I’m reluctant to plow those reserves back into the market at a point when there continues to be so much uncertainty, but the bias appears to be negative.

Even Friday’s gain, which was very mild, was misleading, in that half of the DJIA advance came from a single stock. While that was happening, the broader S&P 500 actually fell and added to its weekly loss.

The problem with not re-investing that cash, however, is that the past 3 weeks have generated less premium income than I generally look forward to and the past 2 weeks haven’t had the same number of ex-dividend positions as in the weeks prior.

The only saving grace for this week is that some of those ex-dividend positions from those previous weeks were hitting accounts this week, but it still doesn’t have the same feel to me as actively generating option premium income from trading.

With only 2 positions set to expire next  week, at least both are currently in range for either rollovers or assignments, but there can still be some news coming from Greece that could shake things up a bit, as we get ready for Independence Day.

With that in mind, as well as the fact that the Employment Situation Report will be released a day early, due to the holiday, there may also be reason to want to avoid having too much at risk for expiration on that date.

Looking ahead, as quiet as this week was, it’s very likely that next week will be very similar.

Any early strength in the week would be welcome if itt gives any opportunity to get some more of those uncovered positions covered and I would continue looking at longer term options, even as the premiums continue to be so low. Hopefully the combination of the extra time, perhaps a dividend or two and using an out of the money strike may generate some competitive returns while we wait to see what near term direction the market will take.

 

 

 

 

 This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   none

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled ov
er, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle
: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  GPS (9/118)

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  KO (9/18), MRO (1/16)

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: MOS

Calls Expired:  BBY, GPS, KMI

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend PositionsDOW (6/26 $0.42)  

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: EMC (6/29 $0.11), WFM (6/20 $0.13)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBYCHK, CLF,  FCX, GPS, HAL, INTC, JCP, JOY, KMILVSMCP, MOS, RIG, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



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Daily Market Update – June 26, 2015

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – June 26, 2015  (8:30 AM)

 

The Week in Review will be posted by 6 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.


The following trade outcomes are possible today:


Assignments:  MOS

Rollovers:   none

Expirations:   BBY, GPS ($41), GPS (42.50), KMI 


The following were ex-dividend this week:  DOW (6/26 $0.42)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  EMC (6/29 $0.115), WFM (6/30 $0.13)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made before 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update – June 25, 2015 (Close)

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – June 25, 2015  (Close)

 

Yesterday was one of those days that no one really saw coming.

The futures market certainly didn’t have any clue and there really wasn’t much in the way of news to have sent the market reeling, erasing all of the gains for the week.

With no news coming from Greece, the only real news for the day was the revision of the first quarter’s GDP, indicating that the decline was only 0.2% and not the 0.7% that was previously reported.

What that may mean to some is that the slowdown wasn’t as bad as the market had been discounting, with regard to how long interest rate increases could be held off.

That’s a pretty big stretch of the importance of the GDP revision. It’s not too likely that the FOMC will look back at 4 month old data and use it to make forward predictions. No matter how you look at it the GDP still shrunk during the first quarter and at its current rate, the first half year will be a very slow one as far as economic growth goes.

That doesn’t give the kind of data that an increase in interest rates would be predicated upon. While there’s still more data to come between now and the next FOMC meeting in July, it looks as if there’s going to need to be some significant additional data to even warrant an interest rate increase in September.

Too bad, because most are beginning to be in agreement that we just need to get it over and move on in the realization that a small increase in the interest rate, especially if it’s not the first of a series of increases, isn’t going to choke the economy to a standstill.

With the market’s pre-opening futures showing some bounce back, but only a fraction of what was lost yesteday, this was mounting up to be a week that I’ve been sitting and watching trades expire as they wait for price points that never came. Today was more of the same as 2 trades that were attempted just sat all day, even as I tried to tweak the prices.

Even with any bounce higher and that bounce was getting smaller as the early futures trading was nearing the opening bell, there was very little reason to think about adding new positions, as there’s so much uncertainty. The market continues to sit at a very precarious position, not necessarily because of its heights, but more because of its continuing tentativeness and inability to have any kind of breakout.

The fact that the market can’t even do more than a 3% rollback is a little worrisome and may give some creedance to Carl Icahn, you expressed the opinion that the market is overheated, although he put particular emphasis on high yielding investments.

Add to that the flurry of IPOs lately and you begin to draw some parallels in your mind about all of the previous times when companies were tripping over one another in trying to bring their shares public.

By this time next week we should at least have some near term answer to what will be happening in Greece and we will be just 2 weeks away from another earnings season, but until then, there’s not much reason to expect that any of these triple digit moves higher that we’ve seen lately have any real basis as being anything other than reactions to the large losses that immediately preceded them.

There’s still a little time to see some trades get made this week, but it’s looking like it may be a complete shutout. Even where a rollover may be possible, the cost of closing the position relative to the premium received is just so small for anything other than looking a
t a longer term timeframe.

I’ve spent a good deal of time looking at October and even January 2016 expirations.

Hopefully, when the dust settles tomorrow, the portfolio will at least keep pace with the market, which for this week, to this point, still means being at a loss for the week.

Even that can be a victory, but if you’re in it for the income, as I am, that victory has little meaning during weeks like this.

.

 

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Daily Market Update – June 25, 2015

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – June 25, 2015  (8:30 AM)

 

Yesterday was one of those days that no one really saw coming.

The futures market certainly didn’t have any clue and there really wasn’t much in the way of news to have sent the market reeling, erasing all of the gains for the week.

With no news coming from Greece, the only real news for the day was the revision of the first quarter’s GDP, indicating that the decline was only 0.2% and not the 0.7% that was previously reported.

What that may mean to some is that the slowdown wasn’t as bad as the market had been discounting, with regard to how long interest rate increases could be held off.

That’s a pretty big stretch of the importance of the GDP revision. It’s not too likely that the FOMC will look back at 4 month old data and use it to make forward predictions. No matter how you look at it the GDP still shrunk during the first quarter and at its current rate, the first half year will be a very slow one as far as economic growth goes.

That doesn’t give the kind of data that an increase in interest rates would be predicated upon. While there’s still more data to come between now and the next FOMC meeting in July, it looks as if there’s going to need to be some significant additional data to even warrant an interest rate increase in September.

Too bad, because most are beginning to be in agreement that we just need to get it over and move on in the realization that a small increase in the interest rate, especially if it’s not the first of a series of increases, isn’t going to choke the economy to a standstill.

With the market’s pre-opening futures showing some bounce back, but only a fraction of what was lost yesteday, this is mounting up to be a week that I’ve been sitting and watching trades expire as they wait for price points that never came. Even with any bounce higher and that bounce is getting smaller as the early futures trading is nearing the opening bell, there’s very little reason to think about adding new positions, as there’s so much uncertainty. The market continues to sit at a very precarious position, not necessarily because of its heights, but more because of its continuing tentativeness and inability to have any kind of breakout.

The fact that the market can’t even do more than a 3% rollback is a little worrisome and may give some creedance to Carl Icahn, you expressed the opinion that the market is overheated, although he put particular emphasis on high yielding investments.

Add to that the flurry of IPOs lately and you begin to draw some parallels in your mind about all of the previous times when companies were tripping over one another in trying to bring their shares public.

By this time next week we should at least have some near term answer to what will be happening in Greece and we will be just 2 weeks away from another earnings season, but until then, there’s not much reason to expect that any of these triple digit moves higher that we’ve seen lately have any real basis as being anything other than reactions to the large losses that immediately preceded them.

There’s still a little time to see soem trades get made this week, but it’s looking like it will be an extremely quiet week. Hopefully, if that does end up to be the case, the portfolio will at least keep pace with the market, which for this week, to this point, means being unchanged.

Even that can be a victory, but if you’re in it for the income, as I am, that victory has little meaning
during weeks like this.

.

 

Click here for reuse options!
Copyright 2015 TheAcsMan