Daily Market Update – October 31, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update –  October 31, 2016 (Close)


This will be a busy week.

Lots and lots of earnings reports are still ahead, before next week sees retailers begin to report.

And another big and complex deal was announced over the weekend.

And there is an FOMC meeting this week.

And the week ends with an Employment Situation Report.

With all of that going on, I don’t think I’ll be doing that much trading, but I would like to.

I have only one ex-dividend position this week and no positions expiring, so there is a real paucity of income for the week.

I don’t like that, but even as I do have some cash on hand, my preference is not to go even lower than the already low level from which I have wanted to emerge for what seems like the longest of times.

This may be an interesting week, especially if there is a really big surprise from the FOMC.

Friday’s GDP could be enough for the FOMC to make an interest rate decision.

So much is being pegged on the fact that there is no Chairman’s press conference scheduled as an explanation for why an increase couldn’t possibly come this month.

I’m certain that if Janet Yellen decided that she wanted an audience she could get one very quickly.

For my part, I just want the same that I’ve wanted all through 2016.

Any opportunities to sell calls on uncovered positions would be really, really welcome.

Today was just a total waste of a day when it all settled. Not much happened from beginning to end and very little happened in-between. There was only a 7 point range on the S&P 500 and less than 60 points on the DJIA.

It may as well have been another Sunday, but without the football.

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Daily Market Update – October 31, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  October 31, 2016 (7:30 AM)


This will be a busy week.

Lots and lots of earnings reports are still ahead, before next week sees retailers begin to report.

Another big and complex deal was announced over the weekend.

There is an FOMC meeting this week.

And the week ends with an Employment Situation Report.

With all of that going on, I don’t think I’ll be doing that much trading, but I would like to.

I have only one ex-dividend position this week and no positions expiring, so there is a real paucity of income for the week.

I don’t like that, but even as I do have some cash on hand, my preference is not to go even lower than the already low level from which I have wanted to emerge for what seems like the longest of times.

This may be an interesting week, especially if there is a really big surprise from the FOMC.

Friday’s GDP could be enough for the FOMC to make an interest rate decision.

So much is being pegged on the fact that there is no Chairman’s press conference scheduled as an explanation for why an increase couldn’t possibly come this month.

I’m certain that if Janet Yellen decided that she wanted an audience she could get one very quickly.

For my part, I just want the same that I’ve wanted all through 2016.

Any opportunities to sell calls on uncovered positions would be really, really welcome.

.


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Dashboard – October 31 – November 4, 2016

 

 

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:    A big week ahead. Lots of earnings, another big deal, FOMC and Employment Situation Report.

TUESDAY:    Lots of earnings today and tomorrow as November gets off to its start, with hopes of breaking a 3 month losing streak

WEDNESDAY:  Another big day ahead with earnings and presumably no FOMC surprise.

THURSDAY:  The S&P 500 has gone into a stealth 7 day decline, the longest in 5 years, as next week may bring some really important earnings news to  give traders a reason to do something, other than participating in the attrition of this recent decline

FRIDAY:. Big day possibly, as we await the morning’s Employment Situation Report and see whether the S&P 500 makes in nine consecutive down days.


 

 



 

                                                                                                                                           

Today's TradesCash-o-Meter

 

 

 





 “SNEAK PEEK AT NEXT WEEK” APPEARS ON FRIDAYS

Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Summary

  

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Weekend Update – October 30, 2016

It’s good to have certainty in all matters of life.

I think.

There’s no doubt that stock market investors like to have certainty, or at the very least they really don’t like uncertainty.

Personally, when it comes to investing and the opportunities present when pursuing the sale of options, I like that intersection between certainty and uncertainty, especially if there is a volley back and forth, but the range is well defined.

That’s because that volley gives rise to more generous option premiums even as the risk may not reflect what is being paid.

Within that context, I’ve liked 2016, other than the brief reaction served up in response to the December 2015 interest rate increase decision by the FOMC.

With 2016 coming to an end in just 2 months and after the past week of corporate earnings, it was still hard to know where the economy was standing and whether the FOMC might have better justification to finally implement another rate increase, as we’ve all been expecting for almost a year.

So far, this most recent earnings season hasn’t provided very much of a pattern of good news on top and bottom line beats and there hasn’t very much in the way of optimistic guidance being given.

What certainty was missing over the past week with regard to the direction of the economy gave way to some certainty on Friday, however.

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Week in Review – October 24 – 28, 2016

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review


October 24 –  28, 2016

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
0  /  1 2 1 0   /   0 0   /   1 0 4

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

October 24 – 28, 2016

This was yet another one of those weeks in which I had no idea what the week was all about, but I still think that something is brewing.

I said that last week, too.

And the week before, too.

This time, though, I’m not certain whether I should be pleased or displeased. That wasn’t the case last week when I as pretty happy about the outcome..

I was again pleased to have made an opening position trade and pleased to be able to roll that over and still have it positioned to be able to take assignment of the short puts if necessary, immediately before its ex-dividend date.

That one new position ended the week 0.3% lower, but that was still 0.4% higher than both the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500.

The S&P 500 itself was down 0.7% for the week.

I was also pleased with all of the trading that I was able to get done, but existing positions trailed the S&P 500 by 0.5%, just as it beat by 0.9% last week.

Add to that the opportunity to sell calls on 2 uncovered positions and the 4 ex-dividend positions and I ended up being pretty happy, even as the overall positions lagged the market.

There were no new closed positions on the week and 2016 is looking like it will have fewer than 30 closed positions on the year.

There was actually a fair bit of news this week, but nothing really to move markets.

What news came from earnings was very much mixed and the really good news from the GDP was overshadowed by some political news.

On top of that interest rates moved higher and oil moved lower.

There was no trend and no really good news from companies offering their guidance.

The GDP, however, was stronger than might have been expected, given some of the numbers that are coming our way.

Maybe when the retailers start shedding some light on what they project we may finally see some real movement in the market.

What direction is still anyone’s guess.

The GDP release on Friday gave more reason to believe that the FOMC was going to have reason to act within the next 6 weeks or so, especially as interest rates are beginning their climb.

If traders are fearful, and the sudden interest in buyouts and mergers may indicate a fear that cheap money will be disappearing, the direction could be south, just as it was last year.

However, cooler and smarter heads prevailed, although it did take a month of pain for those smarter people to take control of markets.

WIth no assignments this week and no positions set to expire, I wouldn’t mind spending some cash to make cash, but I’m still wary.

That hasn’t stopped me before, but 2016 hasn’t exactly been one of robust buying anyway, even as it has been a good year for the bottom line and the overall income production has been acceptable, although not great.

It is time for great again, but I don’t think it’s coming next week.


This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  MRO puts

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:   none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: BMY, HPQ

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: MRO $14.50

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  none

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  MRO $15

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions    F (10/25 $0.15), KMI (10/28 $0.125), MS (10/27 $0.20), WY (10/26 $0.31)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  INTC (11/3 $0.26)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



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