Daily Market Update – October 31, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update –  October 31, 2016 (Close)


This will be a busy week.

Lots and lots of earnings reports are still ahead, before next week sees retailers begin to report.

And another big and complex deal was announced over the weekend.

And there is an FOMC meeting this week.

And the week ends with an Employment Situation Report.

With all of that going on, I don’t think I’ll be doing that much trading, but I would like to.

I have only one ex-dividend position this week and no positions expiring, so there is a real paucity of income for the week.

I don’t like that, but even as I do have some cash on hand, my preference is not to go even lower than the already low level from which I have wanted to emerge for what seems like the longest of times.

This may be an interesting week, especially if there is a really big surprise from the FOMC.

Friday’s GDP could be enough for the FOMC to make an interest rate decision.

So much is being pegged on the fact that there is no Chairman’s press conference scheduled as an explanation for why an increase couldn’t possibly come this month.

I’m certain that if Janet Yellen decided that she wanted an audience she could get one very quickly.

For my part, I just want the same that I’ve wanted all through 2016.

Any opportunities to sell calls on uncovered positions would be really, really welcome.

Today was just a total waste of a day when it all settled. Not much happened from beginning to end and very little happened in-between. There was only a 7 point range on the S&P 500 and less than 60 points on the DJIA.

It may as well have been another Sunday, but without the football.

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Daily Market Update – October 31, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  October 31, 2016 (7:30 AM)


This will be a busy week.

Lots and lots of earnings reports are still ahead, before next week sees retailers begin to report.

Another big and complex deal was announced over the weekend.

There is an FOMC meeting this week.

And the week ends with an Employment Situation Report.

With all of that going on, I don’t think I’ll be doing that much trading, but I would like to.

I have only one ex-dividend position this week and no positions expiring, so there is a real paucity of income for the week.

I don’t like that, but even as I do have some cash on hand, my preference is not to go even lower than the already low level from which I have wanted to emerge for what seems like the longest of times.

This may be an interesting week, especially if there is a really big surprise from the FOMC.

Friday’s GDP could be enough for the FOMC to make an interest rate decision.

So much is being pegged on the fact that there is no Chairman’s press conference scheduled as an explanation for why an increase couldn’t possibly come this month.

I’m certain that if Janet Yellen decided that she wanted an audience she could get one very quickly.

For my part, I just want the same that I’ve wanted all through 2016.

Any opportunities to sell calls on uncovered positions would be really, really welcome.

.


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Dashboard – October 31 – November 4, 2016

 

 

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:    A big week ahead. Lots of earnings, another big deal, FOMC and Employment Situation Report.

TUESDAY:    Lots of earnings today and tomorrow as November gets off to its start, with hopes of breaking a 3 month losing streak

WEDNESDAY:  Another big day ahead with earnings and presumably no FOMC surprise.

THURSDAY:  The S&P 500 has gone into a stealth 7 day decline, the longest in 5 years, as next week may bring some really important earnings news to  give traders a reason to do something, other than participating in the attrition of this recent decline

FRIDAY:. Big day possibly, as we await the morning’s Employment Situation Report and see whether the S&P 500 makes in nine consecutive down days.


 

 



 

                                                                                                                                           

Today's TradesCash-o-Meter

 

 

 





 “SNEAK PEEK AT NEXT WEEK” APPEARS ON FRIDAYS

Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Summary

  

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Weekend Update – October 30, 2016

It’s good to have certainty in all matters of life.

I think.

There’s no doubt that stock market investors like to have certainty, or at the very least they really don’t like uncertainty.

Personally, when it comes to investing and the opportunities present when pursuing the sale of options, I like that intersection between certainty and uncertainty, especially if there is a volley back and forth, but the range is well defined.

That’s because that volley gives rise to more generous option premiums even as the risk may not reflect what is being paid.

Within that context, I’ve liked 2016, other than the brief reaction served up in response to the December 2015 interest rate increase decision by the FOMC.

With 2016 coming to an end in just 2 months and after the past week of corporate earnings, it was still hard to know where the economy was standing and whether the FOMC might have better justification to finally implement another rate increase, as we’ve all been expecting for almost a year.

So far, this most recent earnings season hasn’t provided very much of a pattern of good news on top and bottom line beats and there hasn’t very much in the way of optimistic guidance being given.

What certainty was missing over the past week with regard to the direction of the economy gave way to some certainty on Friday, however.

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Week in Review – October 24 – 28, 2016

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review


October 24 –  28, 2016

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
0  /  1 2 1 0   /   0 0   /   1 0 4

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

October 24 – 28, 2016

This was yet another one of those weeks in which I had no idea what the week was all about, but I still think that something is brewing.

I said that last week, too.

And the week before, too.

This time, though, I’m not certain whether I should be pleased or displeased. That wasn’t the case last week when I as pretty happy about the outcome..

I was again pleased to have made an opening position trade and pleased to be able to roll that over and still have it positioned to be able to take assignment of the short puts if necessary, immediately before its ex-dividend date.

That one new position ended the week 0.3% lower, but that was still 0.4% higher than both the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500.

The S&P 500 itself was down 0.7% for the week.

I was also pleased with all of the trading that I was able to get done, but existing positions trailed the S&P 500 by 0.5%, just as it beat by 0.9% last week.

Add to that the opportunity to sell calls on 2 uncovered positions and the 4 ex-dividend positions and I ended up being pretty happy, even as the overall positions lagged the market.

There were no new closed positions on the week and 2016 is looking like it will have fewer than 30 closed positions on the year.

There was actually a fair bit of news this week, but nothing really to move markets.

What news came from earnings was very much mixed and the really good news from the GDP was overshadowed by some political news.

On top of that interest rates moved higher and oil moved lower.

There was no trend and no really good news from companies offering their guidance.

The GDP, however, was stronger than might have been expected, given some of the numbers that are coming our way.

Maybe when the retailers start shedding some light on what they project we may finally see some real movement in the market.

What direction is still anyone’s guess.

The GDP release on Friday gave more reason to believe that the FOMC was going to have reason to act within the next 6 weeks or so, especially as interest rates are beginning their climb.

If traders are fearful, and the sudden interest in buyouts and mergers may indicate a fear that cheap money will be disappearing, the direction could be south, just as it was last year.

However, cooler and smarter heads prevailed, although it did take a month of pain for those smarter people to take control of markets.

WIth no assignments this week and no positions set to expire, I wouldn’t mind spending some cash to make cash, but I’m still wary.

That hasn’t stopped me before, but 2016 hasn’t exactly been one of robust buying anyway, even as it has been a good year for the bottom line and the overall income production has been acceptable, although not great.

It is time for great again, but I don’t think it’s coming next week.


This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  MRO puts

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:   none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: BMY, HPQ

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: MRO $14.50

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  none

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  MRO $15

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions    F (10/25 $0.15), KMI (10/28 $0.125), MS (10/27 $0.20), WY (10/26 $0.31)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  INTC (11/3 $0.26)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



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Daily Market Update – October 28, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  October 24, 2016 (7:30 AM)


The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: MRO $14.50 (puts), MRO ($15 puts)

Rollovers: none

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:    F (10/25 $0.15), KMI (10/28 $0.125), MS (10/27 $0.20), WY (10/26 $0.31)

The following are ex-dividend next week:  INTC (11/3 $0.26)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

.


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Daily Market Update – October 27, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update –  October 27, 2016 (Close)


Yesterday wasn’t a great day for the market, but it wasn’t really bad either.

That made two consecutive days of real boring activity.

Today, the morning’s futures appeared to want to be a clone of both of those days, which were days characterized by no really great earnings news and no great guidance.

The morning’s news yesterday got off to a decent start with some optimistic news, this time not so much earnings related, but more on the buyout front.

Suddenly, that activity has heated up as maybe there is a perception that prices are cheap and cheap money is coming to an end.

You would, however, think that perhaps the end of cheap money could be a reason to drive share prices a bit lower, but if you’re spending other people’s money, why wait?

There are lots of earnings to come today, both before and after the bell.

Meanwhile, the early morning futures were again fairly flat, but they had improved from where they started trading in the earliest part of the session.

They actually ended the day higher, even though it was another boring day, except for one opportunity to sell some calls on an uncovered position. 

As has been the case since the last few months of 2015, that has meant looking at a longer dated option, though.

With that done, my eyes were and will be predominantly on oil, as both expiring positions are in that sector and earnings are coming up next week, so I would like to have a plan in hand and be able to execute over the next 2 trading days.

At the moment, the plan is to take assignment of those short puts, if necessary and the hope to sell some calls that expire during the week of the upcoming ex-dividend date, which was just announced as being on Monday, November 14th.

Otherwise, it will likely continue being a very quiet and watchful week with attention focusing on Friday morning’s GDP release.

If that number is strong and if it is accompanied by some revisions to previous months, traders could look for buyers as they seek to take profits.

However, unless the Atlanta Federal Reserve is wrong, and they haven’t been all year long, they continued recently to be dour about the GDP, so it may be instrumental to take their cue, even as employment statistics are improving and consumers are reportedly returning.

It may really take the retail earnings reports in a couple of weeks to set the record straight and maybe pave the way for whatever remains of 2016.

.


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Daily Market Update – October 27, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update –  October 27, 2016 (Close)


Yesterday wasn’t a great day for the market, but it wasn’t really bad either.

That made two consecutive days of real boring activity.

Today, the morning’s futures appeared to want to be a clone of both of those days, which were days characterized by no really great earnings news and no great guidance.

The morning’s news yesterday got off to a decent start with some optimistic news, this time not so much earnings related, but more on the buyout front.

Suddenly, that activity has heated up as maybe there is a perception that prices are cheap and cheap money is coming to an end.

You would, however, think that perhaps the end of cheap money could be a reason to drive share prices a bit lower, but if you’re spending other people’s money, why wait?

There are lots of earnings to come today, both before and after the bell.

Meanwhile, the early morning futures were again fairly flat, but they had improved from where they started trading in the earliest part of the session.

They actually ended the day higher, even though it was another boring day, except for one opportunity to sell some calls on an uncovered position. 

As has been the case since the last few months of 2015, that has meant looking at a longer dated option, though.

With that done, my eyes were and will be predominantly on oil, as both expiring positions are in that sector and earnings are coming up next week, so I would like to have a plan in hand and be able to execute over the next 2 trading days.

At the moment, the plan is to take assignment of those short puts, if necessary and the hope to sell some calls that expire during the week of the upcoming ex-dividend date, which was just announced as being on Monday, November 14th.

Otherwise, it will likely continue being a very quiet and watchful week with attention focusing on Friday morning’s GDP release.

If that number is strong and if it is accompanied by some revisions to previous months, traders could look for buyers as they seek to take profits.

However, unless the Atlanta Federal Reserve is wrong, and they haven’t been all year long, they continued recently to be dour about the GDP, so it may be instrumental to take their cue, even as employment statistics are improving and consumers are reportedly returning.

It may really take the retail earnings reports in a couple of weeks to set the record straight and maybe pave the way for whatever remains of 2016.

.


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Daily Market Update – October 27, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  October 27, 2016 (Close)


Yesterday wasn’t a great day for the market, but it wasn’t really bad either.

That made two consecutive days of real boring activity.

Today, the morning’s futures appeared to want to be a clone of both of those days, which were days characterized by no really great earnings news and no great guidance.

The morning’s news yesterday got off to a decent start with some optimistic news, this time not so much earnings related, but more on the buyout front.

Suddenly, that activity has heated up as maybe there is a perception that prices are cheap and cheap money is coming to an end.

You would, however, think that perhaps the end of cheap money could be a reason to drive share prices a bit lower, but if you’re spending other people’s money, why wait?

There are lots of earnings to come today, both before and after the bell.

Meanwhile, the early morning futures are again fairly flat, but they had improved from where they started trading in the earliest part of the session.

My eyes are predominantly on oil, as both expiring positions are in that sector and earnings are coming up next week, so I would like to have a plan in hand and be able to execute over the next 2 trading days.

Otherwise, it will likely continue being a very quiet and watchful week with attention focusing on Friday morning’s GDP release.

If that number is strong and if it is accompanied by some revisions to previous months, traders could look for buyers as they seek to take profits.

However, unless the Atlanta Federal Reserve is wrong, and they haven’t been all year long, they continued recently to be dour about the GDP, so it may be instrumental to take their cue, even as employment statistics are improving and consumers are reportedly returning.

It may really take the retail earnings reports in a couple of weeks to set the record straight and maybe pave the way for whatever remains of 2016.

.


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Daily Market Update – October 26, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update –  October 26, 2016 (Close)


Yesterday wasn’t a great day for the market, but it wasn’t really bad either.

Today, the morning’s futures appeared to want to be a clone of yesterday, which was a day characterized by no great earnings news and no great guidance.

The morning’s news yesterday got off to a decent start with some optimistic guidance from DuPont, but there was absolutely no follow through.

After the market’s close, Apple showed that its primary money maker was slowing down, but its share price was pretty resilient, despite the lack of any really good news.

Today ended up being another day without direction, nor with any leadership.

At it’s best, you could say that the day was mixed, but at least didn’t follow along with oil, which was again weaker on the day.

We still have so many earnings reports to come in the next 2 weeks that there’s still time for a happy picture to be painted ahead of December’s FOMC meeting, but the early round hasn’t been very impressive.

Still, that could change where it really counts in about 2 weeks as retailers begin their reports.

Those retailers are, by and large, at pretty low prices and they could use a boost. But. the real importance attached to their earnings will be the guidance they provide, especially if they can finally see the silver lining ahead.

I’m not as sanguine about that as I was a week ago, though.

Friday’s GDP will tell us something, but its really up to the retailers to let us know not only what has happened in the last quarter, but what they see ahead.

That may go a long way toward creating confidence that whatever the FOMC may do will be the correct path to take.

Last year, it wasn’t and I’m certain no one wants to repeat that, nor the ensuing sell off to start 2016.

Earnings reported after the trading session’s close were, by and large, better and could conceivably have some follow through for tomorrow, but there really weren’t any big names reporting earnings.

This week is now nearly at its end and with little to distinguish it.

Old timers will tell you that is exactly when the unexpected happens:

When you don’t expect it.

.


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