Daily Market Update – March 31, 2016 (Close)

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – March 31, 2016 (Close)

The past 2 days of mild rallies could only have been attributed to the unexpectedly dovish tone from Janet Yellen.

Once always the messenger of dovish outlooks, she had become less so as the expectation was increasingly for some very minor tightening with a barely noticeable increase in interest rates.

There’s been no doubt that traders haven’t liked the idea of even a 0.25% increase even if it meant that remaining so low was a reflection of a moribund economy.

The past couple of days were a reflection of still embracing an economy hobbling along, rather than rejoicing in one that is growing.

Obviously, anyone old enough would be concerned about unbridled growth and inflation, but it’s still so hard to understand the fears associated with even a series of increases, if they were indeed as small as everyone suspects they would be.

This morning’s futures were flat ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report and stayed that way all through the session, as we may find out whether Yellen’s dovish tone is the one that will hold the day or whether some of the more hawkish Federal Reserve Governors are the ones who have it all pegged properly.

With only a single position set for expiration this week and time running out on the week, I didn’t expect to do much today, so I wasn’t disappointed. At least today still left me in a position tomorrow to either see an assignment or get to make a rollover.

It’s wasn’t too likely that in the day ahead of the Employment Situation report that too many would really stick their necks out, since even among those who should know the best, there’s lots of disagreement over the speed and intensity at which our economy is progressing.

It’s probably not a great idea to take sides when the really smart people can’t be in agreement, but it also may not be a good idea to take sides tomorrow in the event that emotions take hold.


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Daily Market Update – March 31, 2016

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – March 31, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The past 2 days of mild rallies could only have been attributed to the unexpectedly dovish tone from Janet Yellen.

Once always the messenger of dovish outlooks, she had become less so as thge expectation was increasingly for some very minor tightening with a barely noticeable increase in interest rates.

There’s been no doubt that traders haven’t liked the idea of even a 0.25% increase even if it meant that remaining so low was a reflection of a moribund economy.

The past couple of days were a reflection of still embracing an economy hobbling along, rather than rejoicing in one that is growing.

Obviously, anyone old enough would be concerned about unbridled growth and inflation, but it’s still so hard to understand the fears associated with even a series of increases, if they were indeed as small as everyone suspects they would be.

This morning’s futures are flat ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report, as we may find out whether Yellen’s dovish tone is the one that will hold the day or whether some of the more hawkish Federal Reserve Governors are the ones who have it all pegged properly.

With only a single position set for expiration this week and time running out on the week, I don’t expect to do much today, but will hopefully be in a position tomorrow to either see an assignment or get to make a rollover.

It’s not too likely that in the day ahead of the Employment Situation report that too many will really stick their necks out, since even among those who should know the best, there’s lots of disagreement over the speed and intensity at which our economy is progressing.

It’s probably not a great idea to take sides when the really smart people can’t be in agreement.


.

.



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Daily Market Update – March 30, 2016 (Close)

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – March 30, 2016 (Close)

Did anyone really expect Janet Yellen to be so dovish yesterday?

Based upon the reaction of markets all around the world, the answer to that question has to be that her tone was really unexpected.

Why investors would really totally disregard a longer term view of that dovishness is curious.

Basically, what Yellen had said was that the US economy, and perhaps at this point, more importantly, world economies weren’t chugging along strongly enough to really warrant what the FOMC has been hoping to do for quite some time.

That can’t really be the kind of news that can sustain a market’s move higher.

But maybe everything really is all relative. Maybe we’re still the best house in a worsening global neighborhood.

But still, not only is the strength that we have all been expecting to see just not materializing, it is also pointing out just how flawed either the FOMC’s crystal ball is or just how they’ve been getting ready to implement the wrong strategy.

Obviously, those two are related, but it would make a reasonable person question just how special the FOMC is when it comes to forecasting and setting monetary policy.

The same monkey who can pick stocks better than 90% of all professionals could probably just as well serve on the FOMC.

This morning’s futures are again pointing higher after yesterday’s rally and for the second day in a row, it is beginning to appear as if stocks and oil may go off in their own directions.

Again, as long as that direction takes stocks higher and oil goes lower, I’m all for that.

With this morning’s early rally I would be fine with just being able to see either a rollover or assignment of this week’s lone expiring position, but i think that i would rather get a chance to roll it over and keep collecting the premium.

I still have my eye on some of those positions that are ex-dividend on the Monday of next week, but it is again looking like a very quiet week for trading.

As long as asset value goes higher, especially if keeping up or exceeding the market, while continuing to collect some dividends, I’m OK with that, but would still prefer to do some more active trading.

The passivity is annoying, but again, it really should be the bottom line that’s the ultimate measure and not the ability to feed my beast and make trade after trade.

Although, in a perfect world….you can have it all.

At least there was some chance to sell some calls today, but it meant using as long a term contract as I have sold in a long, long time.

Still, income is income, especially if there’s no reason to believe that there won’t be more ups and downs along the way. This way, at least there’s something to make it a little more worthwhile.


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Daily Market Update – March 30, 2016

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – March 30, 2016 (7:30 AM )

Did anyone really expect Janet Yellen to be so dovish yesterday?

Based upon the reaction of markets all around the world, the answer to that question has to be that her tone was really unexpected.

Why investors would really totally disregard a longer term view of that dovishness is curious.

Basically, what Yellen had said was that the US economy, and perhaps at this point, more importantly, world economies weren’t chugging along strongly enough to really warrant what the FOMC has been hoping to do for quite some time.

That can’t really be the kind of news that can sustain a market’s move higher.

Not only is the strength that we have all been expecting to see just not materializing, but it is also pointing out just how flawed either the FOMC’s crystal ball is or just how they’ve been getting ready to implement the wrong strategy.

Obviously, those two are related, but it would make a reasonable person question just how special the FOMC is when it comes to forecasting and setting monetary policy.

The same monkey who can pick stocks better than 90% of all professionals could probably just as well serve on the FOMC.

This morning’s futures are again pointing higher after yesterday’s rally and for the second day in a row, it is beginning to appear as if stocks and oil may go off in their own directions.

Again, as long as that direction takes stocks higher and oil goes lower, I’m all for that.

With this morning’s early rally I would be fine with just being able to see either a rollover or assignment of this week’s lone expiring position, but i think that i would rather get a chance to roll it over and keep collecting the premium.

I still have my eye on some of those positions that are ex-dividend on the Monday of next week, but it is again looking like a very quiet week for trading.

As long as asset value goes higher, especially if keeping up or exceeding the market, while continuing to collect some dividends, I’m OK with that, but would still prefer to do some more active trading.

The passivity is annoying, but again, it really should be the bottom line that’s the ultimate measure and not the ability to feed my beast and make trade after trade.

Although, in a perfect world….you can have it all.


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Daily Market Update – March 29, 2016 (Close)

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – March 29, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was as quiet a trading day as we may have seen all year.

The trading range in the DJIA was less than 100 points and there was never any real feeling that things would break out in either direction.

While we have to wait until the end of the week for the Employment Situation Report, we may not have expected to wait that long for things to break out in either direction.

That’s because Janet Yellen was to speak today and over the course of the remainder of the week there will be some other opportunities for other members of the Federal reserve to try and capture the spotlight.

Increasingly, those other members try to put their own spin on things and they aren’t always in line with what used to be a single and unified voice.

That has caused some gyrations over the past couple of years and it seems increasingly so  during the Yellen term.

That likely has nothing to do with Yellen, but more to do with circumstances.

During most of Bernanke’s tenure everyone was pretty much in agreement over what needed to be the direction of interest rates and most everyone was singular in their determination to prevent disaster.

It’s a little different now and I would guess that even if Bernanke was still Chairman of the Federal Reserve, we would be hearing more and more personal o[pinions and dissension being expressed.

This morning, ahead of Chairman Yellen’s comments the market was again flat, as was the world overnight.

Oil, too, was fairly subdued yesterday, but the market didn’t follow it’s changing directions and its net change on the day very closely.

As long as oil may head lower, that’s fine, but if there’s a reason for oil to resume some of the strength it had seen in the previous month, I hope that stocks remember to follow along, even if not entirely rational to do so.

So what happened today?

Yellen was dovish and the market really liked it.

In fact, they liked it so much that the market didn’t even care that oil did go lower.

With no new purchases yesterday, I still am in the market to do something, but may be increasingly looking at some of those positions that are ex-dividend next Monday.

My preference is still to be able to generate some income from selling calls on uncovered positions and do have some in mind, waiting for appropriate bids.

Otherwise, this week may just be a story of conflicting stories and views of the economy while we await jobs news to end the week.

Ultimately, we’ll all be asking why anyone was afraid of a 0.25% interest rate increase.


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