HLF | TheAcsMan

Feb202016

Weekend Update – February 21, 2016

If you can remember as far back at the 1970s and even the early part of the 1980s, it still has to be hard to understand how we could possibly live in a world where we would want to see inflation.

It’s hard to think that what we thought was bad could actually sometimes be good medicine.

But when you start thinking about the “lost decades” in Japan, it becomes clear that there may be a downside to a very prolonged period of low interest rates.

Sometimes you just have to swallow a bitter pill.

And then, of course, we’re all trying to wrap our minds around the concept of negative interest rates. What a great deal when bank depositors not only get to fund bank profits by providing the capital that can be loaned out at a higher rate of interest than is being received on those deposits, but then also get to pay banks for allowing them to lend out their money.

For savers, that could mean even more bad medicine in order to make the economy more healthy, by theoretically creating more incentive for banks to increase their lending activity.

From a saver’s perspective one dose of bad medicine could have you faced with negative interest rates in the hope that it spurs the kind of economic growth that will lead to inflation, which always outpaces the interest rates received on savings.

That is one big bitter pill.

While the Federal Reserve has had a goal of raising interest rates to what would still be a very reasonable level, given historical standards, the stock market hasn’t been entirely receptive to that notion. The belief that ultra-low interest rates have helped to spur stock investing, particularly as an alternative to fixed income securities makes it hard to accept that higher interest rates might be good for the economy, especially if your personal economy is entirely wrapped up in the health of your stocks.

In reality, it’s a good economy that typically dictates a rise in interest rates and not the other way around.

That may be what has led to some consternation as the recent increase in interest rates hasn’t appeared to actually be tied to overt economic growth, despite the repeated claims that the FOMC’s decisions would be data driven.

Oil continued to play an important role in stock prices last week and was a good example of how actions can sometimes precede rational thought, as oil prices surged on the news of an OPEC agreement to reduce production. The fact that neither Iran nor Venezuela agreed to that reduction should have been a red flag arguing against the price increase, but eventually rational thought caught up with thought free reflexes.

While oil continued to play an important role in stock prices, there may have been more to account for the recovery that has now seen February almost completely wipe out it’s 2016 DJIA loss of 5.6%.

What may have also helped is the belief, some of which came from the FOMC minutes, that the strategy that many thought would call for small, but regular interest rate increases through 2016 may have become less likely.

The stock market looked at any reason for an increase in interest rates as being bad medicine. So it may not have been too surprising that the 795 point three day rise in the DJIA came to an abrupt stop with Fridays release of the Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) which may provide the FOMC with the data to justify another interest rate increase.

Bad medicine, for sure to stock investors.

But the news contained within the CPI may be an extra dose of bad medicine, as the increase in the CPI came predominantly from increases in rents and healthcare costs.

How exactly do either of those reflect an economy chugging forward?

That may be on the mind of markets as the coming week awaits, but it may be the kind of second thought that can get the market back on track to continue moving higher, similar to the second thoughts that restored some rational action in oil markets last week.

You might believe that a rational FOMC wouldn’t increase interest rates based upon rents and healthcare costs if there is scant other data suggesting a heating up of the economy, particularly the consumer driven portion of the economy.

While rents may have some consumer driven portion, it’s hard to say the same about healthcare costs.

Ultimately, the rational thing to do is to take your medicine, but only if you’re sick and it’s the right medicine.

If the economy is sick, the right medicine doesn’t seem to be an increase in interest rates. But if the economy isn’t sick, maybe we just need to start thinking of increasing interest rates as the vitamins necessary to help our system operate more optimally.

Hold your nose or follow the song’s suggestion and take a spoonful of sugar, but sooner or later that medicine has to be taken and swallowed.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in the Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or “PEE” categories.

It’s not so easy to understand why General Motors (GM) is languishing so much these days.

As bad as the S&P 500 has been over the past 3 months, General Motors has been in bear territory, despite continuing good sales news.

What has been especially impressive about General Motors over the past few years is how under its new leadership its hasn’t succumbed or caved in as legal issues and potentially very damaging safety related stories were coming in a steady stream.

I already own some shares of General Motors, but as its ex-dividend date is approaching in the next few weeks, I’m considering adding shares, but rather than selling weekly options, would be more inclined to sell the monthly March 2016 option in an effort to pocket a more substantial premium, the generous dividend and perhaps some capital gains in those shares.

I wrote about Best Buy (BBY) last week and a potential strategy to employ as both earnings and its ex-dividend date were upcoming.

This week is the earnings event, but the ex-dividend date has yet to be announced.

The strategy, however, remains the same and still appears to have an opportunity to be employed.

With an implied move of 8% next week, there may be an opportunity to achieve a weekly 1% ROI by selling put options at a strike 10% below Friday’s closing price.

The risk is that Best Buy has had earnings related moves in the past that have surprised the seers
in the options market. However, if faced with assignment, with one eye fixed on any upcoming announcement of its ex-dividend date, one can either seek to rollover those puts or take ownership of shares in order to secure its dividend and subsequently some call options, as well.

Alternatively, if a little risk adverse, one can also consider the sale of puts after earnings, in the event that shares slide.

Also mentioned last week and seemingly still an opportunity is Sinclair Broadcasting (SBGI). It, too, announces earnings this week and has yet to announce its upcoming ex-dividend date.

Its share price was buoyed last week as the broader market went higher, but then finished the week up only slightly for the week.

Since the company only has monthly option contracts available, I would look at any share purchase in terms of a longer term approach, in the event that shares do go lower after earnings are announced.

Sinclair Broadcasting’s recent history is that of its shares not staying lower for very long, so the use of a longer term contract at a strike envisioning some capital appreciation of shares could give a very satisfactory return, with relatively little angst. As a reminder, Sinclair Broadcasting isn’t terribly sensitive to oil prices or currency fluctuations and can only benefit from a continued low interest rate environment.

It’s hard now to keep track of just how long the Herbalife (HLF) saga has been going on. My last lot of shares was assigned 6 months ago at $58 and I felt relieved to have gotten out of the position, thinking that some legal or regulatory decision was bound to be coming shortly.

And now here we are and the story continues, except that you don’t hear or read quite as much about it these days. Even the most prolific of Herbalife-centric writers on Seeking Alpha have withdrawn, particularly those who have long held long belief in the demise of the company.

For those having paid attention, rumors of the demise of the company had been greatly exaggerated over the past few years.

While that demise, or at least crippling blow to its business model may still yet come to be a reality, Herbalife reports earnings this week and I am once again considering the sale of put options.

With an implied move of 14.3%, based upon Friday’s closing the price, the options market believes that the lower floor on the stock’s price will be about $41.75.

A 1.4% ROI on the sale of a weekly option may possibly be obtained at a strike price that is 20.4% below Friday’s close.

For me, that seems to be a pretty fair risk – reward proposition, but the risk can’t be ignored.

Since Herbalife no longer offers a dividend, if faced with the possibility of share ownership, I would try to rollover the puts as long as possible to avoid taking possession of shares.

While doing so, I would both hold my breath and cross my fingers.

Finally, as far as stocks go, Corning (GLW) has had a good year, at least in relative terms. It’s actually about 1.5% higher, which leaves both the DJIA and S&P 500 behind in the dust.

Shares are ex-dividend this week and I’m reminded that I haven’t owned those shares in more than 5 years, even as it used to be one of my favorites.

With its recently reported earnings exceeding expectations and with the company reportedly on track with its strategic vision, despite declining LCD glass prices, it is offering an attractive enough premium to even gladly accept early assignment in a call buyer’s attempt to capture the dividend.

With the ex-dividend date on Tuesday, an early assignment would mean that the entire premium would reflect only a single day of share ownership and the opportunity to deploy the ensuing funds from the assignment into another position.

However, even if not assigned early, the premiums for the weekly options may make this a good position to consider rolling over on a serial basis if that opportunity presents itself.

Those kind of recurring income streams can offset a lot of bitterness.

Traditional Stocks: General Motors

Momentum Stocks: none

Double-Dip Dividend: Corning (2/23 $0.135)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: BBY (2/25 AM), Herbalife (2/26 PM, Sinclair Broadcasting (2/24 AM)

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. The above selections may become actionable – most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts – in adjustment to and consideration of market movements. The overriding objective is to create a healthy income stream for the week, with reduction of trading risk.

Aug12015

Weekend Update – August 2, 2015

TheAcsManWeekend Update

Like many people I know who have seen the coming attractions for “Vacation,” I’m anxious to see the film having laughed out loud on the two occasions that I saw the coming attractions.

That’s one of the benefits of diminishing short term memory and ever lower standards for what I find entertaining.

My wife and I usually rotate over who gets to select the next movie we see, although it usually works out to a 3 to 1 ratio in her favor. We tend to like different genres. But on this one, we’re both in agreement.

I’m under no illusions that the upcoming “vacation” being taken by the Federal Reserve and its members will have anywhere near the hijinks that the scripted “Vacation” will likely have.

For a short while the usually very visible and very eager to share their opinion members of that august institution will not garner too much attention and the stock market will be left to its own devices to try and interpret the meaning of incoming economic data in a vacuum.

The greatest likelihood is that the Federal Reserve Governors and the members of the FOMC will also be busily evaluating the economic data that will continue to accrue during the remainder of the summer, even as they have a much abridged speaking schedule in August.

I count only 3 scheduled appearances for August, which means less opportunity to go off script or less opportunity to speak one’s own mind, regardless of how that mind may lack influence where it really matters.

That then translates into less opportunity to move markets through casual comments, observations or expressions of personal opinion, even when that opinion may carry little to no weight.

While FOMC members may be taking a vacation from their public appearances for a short while, they’ll be able to give some thought to the most recent economic data which isn’t painting a picture of an economy that is expanding to the point of worry or perhaps not even to the point of justifying action.

The GDP data reported this week came in below estimates and further there was no indication of wage growth. For an FOMC that continually stresses that it will be “data driven” one has to wonder where the justification would arise to consider an interest rate increase even as early as September.

This coming week’s Employment Situation Report could alter the landscape as could the upcoming earnings reports from retailers that will begin in about 2 weeks.

With less attention being paid to when an interest rate hike may or may not occur, perhaps more attention will be paid to the details that would trigger such an increase and interpret those details on their surface, such that good news is greeted as good news and bad news as bad. That would mean a greater consideration of fundamental criteria rather than interpretation of the first or second order changes that those fundamentals might trigger.

Meanwhile, the market continues to be very deceiving.

While the S&P 500 is only about 1.5% below its all time high and the DJIA is about 3.5% below its high, it’s hard to overlook the fact that 40% of the latter’s component companies are in bear market correction.

That seems to be such an incongruous condition and the failure to break out beyond resistance levels after successfully testing support could be pointing to a developing dynamic of higher lows, but lower highs. That’s something that technicians believe may be a precursor to a breakout, but of indeterminate direction.

A lot of good that is.

The fact remains that the market has been extremely unpredictable from week to week, exhibiting something resembling a 5 steps forward and almost 5 steps backward kind of pattern throughout 2015.

With this past week being one that moved higher and bringing markets closer to its resistance level, the coming week could be an interesting one if China remains under control and fundamentals coming from earnings and economic data paint a picture of good news.

Given my low volume of trading over the past few weeks I feel that I’ve been on an extended, but unplanned vacation. Unfortunately, there are no funny tales to recount and the weeks past feel like weeks lost.

Although I’ve never really understood those who complained about having “too much quality family time” and welcomed heading back to work, I think I now have a greater appreciation for their misery.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in the Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or ”
PEE” categories.

Last week I purchased shares of Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) with dividend capture in mind. However, on the day before the ex-dividend date shares surged beyond my strike price and I decided to roll those options over in a hope that I could either retain the dividend and get some additional premium, or, in the event of early assignment, simply retain the additional premium.

This week, despite semi-conductors still being embattled, I’m interested in adding shares of Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), also going ex-dividend during the week.

While patiently awaiting the opportunity to sell new calls on a much more expensive existing position, I’m very aware that Intel is one of those DJIA components in correction mode. However, I don’t believe Intel will be additionally price challenged unless caught in a downward spiraling market. While I’d love to see some rebound in price for my existing shares, I’d be more than satisfied with a quick turnaround of a new lot of shares and capture of dividend and option premium.

MetLife (NYSE:MET) is also ex-dividend this week. It, too, may be in the process of developing higher lows and lower highs, which may serve as an alert.

With interest rates under pressure in the latter half of the week, MetLife followed suit lower, with both peaking mid-week. Any consideration of adding shares of MetLife for a short term holding should probably be done in the context of the expectation for interest rates climbing. If you believe that interest rates are still headed lower, the prospect of dividend capture and option premium may not offset the risk associated with the share price being pulled toward its support level.

MetLife shares are currently a little higher priced than I would like, but with a couple of days of trading prior to the ex-dividend date, I would be more enticed to consider a dividend capture trade and the use of an extended weekly option if there is price weakness early in the week.

I haven’t owned shares of Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF) in a number of years, although it’s always on my watch list. I almost included it in last week’s selection list following it’s impressive earnings related plunge of about 13%, but decided to wait to see if it could show any attempt to stem the tide.

In a sector that has generally had positive earnings this past quarter the news that Capital One was setting aside 60% more for credit losses came as a stunner, as its profitability ratio also fell.

Some price stability came creeping back last week, however, although still leaving shares well off their highs from less than 2 weeks ago. Even after some price recovery, Capital One Financial joins along with those DJIA stocks that are in correction mode and may offer some opportunity after being oversold.

Despite still owning a much too expensive lot of shares of Abercrombie and Fitch (NYSE:ANF), I’m always attracted to its shares, even when I know that they are likely not to be good for me.

There’s something perverse about that facet of human nature that finds attraction with what most know is bound to be a train wreck, but it can be so hard to resist the obvious warning signals.

While having that expensive lot of shares the recent weakness in Abercrombie and Fitch shares that have taken it below the tight range within which it had been trading makes me want to consider adding shares for the fourth time in 2015.

The option premiums are generally attractive, befitting its penchant for large moves and there is nearly 4 weeks to go until it reports earnings, so there may be some time to manage a position in the event of an adverse price movement.

I might consider the sale of puts with Abercrombie, rather than a buy/write. The one caveat about doing so and it also pertains to being short calls, is that if the ensuing share price is sharply deviating from the strike price when looking to execute a rollover, the liquidity may be problematic and the bid-ask spreads may be overly large and detrimental to someone who feels pressure to make a trade.

Finally, for those that have real intestinal fortitude, both Green Mountain Keurig (NASDAQ:GMCR) and Herbalife (NYSE:HLF) have been in the cross hairs of well known activists and both report earnings this week.

The Green Mountain Keurig saga is a long one and began some years ago when questions arose regarding its accounting practices and issues of inventory. Thrown later into the equation were questions regarding the sale of stock by its founder who had also served as CEO and Chairman until he was fired.

What Green Mountain has shown is that second acts are possible, as it has, very possibly through a lifeline offered by Coca Cola (NYSE:KO), emerged from a seeming spiral into oblivion.

Somewhat ominously, at its recent earnings report and conference, Coca Cola made no mention of its investment in Green Mountain, which has seen its share price fall by more than 50% in the past 9 months. It has been down that path before, having fallen by about 65% just 4 years ago in 2 month period.

Are there third and fourth acts?

The options market is implying a price move of about 10.7%. Meanwhile, one can potentially obtain a 1% ROI for the week if selling a put contract at a strike as much as 14% below this past Friday’s close.

In light of how this current earnings season has punished those disappointing with their earnings, even that fairly large cushion between the implied move and the strike that could deliver a 1% ROI still leads to some discomfort. However, I would very much consider the sale of puts after the earnings report if shares do plunge.

Herbalife has had its own ongoing and long saga, as well, that may be coming toward some sort of a resolution as the FTC probe is nearly 18 months old and follows allegations of illegality made nearly 3 years ago.

Following a fall to below $30 just 6 months ago, a series of court victories by Herbalife have helped to see it realize its own second act, as shares have jumped by 65% since that time.

The options market is implying a share price move of about 16%.

Considering that any day could bring great peril to Herbalife shareholders in the event of an adverse FTC decision, that implied move isn’t unduly exaggerated, as more than business results are in play at any given moment.

However, if that intestinal fortitude does exist, especially if also venturing a trade on Green Mountain, a 1% ROI may possibly be obtained by selling puts at a strike nearly 29% below Friday’s closing price.

Now that’s a cushion, but it may be a necessary one.

If the news is doubly bad, combining disappointing earnings and the coincidental release of an FTC ruling the same week that Bill Ackman would immensely enjoy, I might recommend a vacation, if you can still afford one.

Traditional Stocks: Capital One Finance

Momentum Stocks: Abercrombie and Fitch

Double-Dip Dividend: Intel (8/5), MetLife (8/5)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: Green Mountain Keurig (8/5 PM), Herbalife (8/5 PM)

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. The above selections may become actionable, most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts, in adjustment to and consideration of market movements. The overriding objective is to create a healthy income stream for the week with reduction of trading risk.

Nov12014

Weekend Update – November 2, 2014

TheAcsManWeekend Update

It’s really hard to know what to make of the past few weeks, much less this very past one.

On an intra-day basis having the S&P 500 down 9% from its high point seemed to be the stop right before that traditional 10% level needed to qualify as a bona fide “correction.”

But something happened.

What happened isn’t really clear, but if you were among those that credited the words of Federal Reserve Governor James Bullard, who suggested that the exit from Quantitative Easing should be delayed, the recovery that ensued now appears more of a coincidence than a result.

That’s because a rational person would have believed that if the upcoming FOMC Statement failed to confirm Bullard’s opinion there would be a rush to the doors to undo the rampant buying of the preceding 10 days that was fueled under false pretenses.

But that wasn’t the case.

In fact, not only did the FOMC announce what they had telegraphed for almost a year, but the previously dissenting hawks were no longer dissenters and a well known dove was instead the one doing the dissenting.

I don’t know about you, but the gains that ensued on Thursday, had me confused, just as the markets seemed confused in the two final trading hours after the FOMC Statement release. You don’t have to be a “perma-bear” to wonder what it’s going to take to get some of your prophesies to be fulfilled.

Even though Thursday’s gains were initially illusory owing to Visa’s (V) dominance of the DJIA, they became real and broadly applied as the afternoon wore on. “How did that make any sense?” is a question that a rationally objective investor and a perma-bear might both find themselves asking as both are left behind in the dust.

I include myself in that camp, as I didn’t take advantage of what turned out to be the market lows as now new closing highs have been set.

Those new highs came courtesy of the Bank of Japan on Friday as it announced the kind of massive stimulus program that we had been expecting to first come from the European Central Bank.

While the initial reaction was elation and set the bears further into despair it also may have left them wondering what, if any role rational thought has left in the processes driving stocks and their markets.

Many, if not most, agree that the Federal Reserve’s policy of Quantitative Easing was the primary fuel boosting U.S. stock markets for years, having drawn foreign investor demand to our shores. Now, with Japan getting ready to follow the same path and perhaps the ECB next in line, we are poised to become the foreigners helping to boost markets on distant shores.

At least that what a confused, beaten and relatively poorer bear thinks as the new week gets underway.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or “PEE” categories.

I love listening to Howard Schultz defending shares of Starbucks (SBUX) after the market takes the stock lower after earnings. No one defends his company, its performance and its outlook better than Howard Schultz.

But more importantly, he has always followed up his assertions with results.

As with many stocks over the past two weeks, Starbucks is one, that in hindsight I should have purchased two weeks ago, while exercising rational thought processes that got in the way of recognizing bargain prices. Friday’s drop still makes it too late to get shares at their lows of 2 weeks ago, but I expect Schultz to be on the correct side of the analysis once again.

There’s not much disagreement that it has been a rough month for the energy sector. While it did improve last week, it still lagged most everything else, but I think that the Goldman Sachs (GS) call for $75 oil is the turning point. Unfortunately, I have more energy stocks than I would have liked, but expect their recovery and am, hesitatingly looking to add to the position, starting with British Petroleum (BP) as it is ex-dividend this week. That’s always a good place to start, especially with earnings already out of the way.

While I continue to incorrectly refer to BP as “British Petroleum” that is part of my legacy, just as its Russian exposure and legal liabilities are part of its legacy. However, I think that all of those factors are fully priced in. Where I believe the opportunity exists is that since the September 2014 highs up to the Friday’s highs, BP hasn’t performed as well as some of its cohorts and may be due for some catch-up.

I purchased shares of Intel (INTC) the previous week and was hoping to capture its dividend, as its ex-dividend date is this week.

Last week Intel had quite a ride as it alternated 4% moves lower and then higher on Thursday and Friday.

Thursday’s move, which caught most everyone by surprise was accompanied by very large put option trading, including large blocks of aggressive in the money puts with less than 2 days until expiration and even larger out of the money puts expiring in 2 weeks.

Most of the weekly puts expired worthless, as there was fairly low activity on Friday, with no evidence of those contracts getting rolled forward, as shares soared.

While initially happy to see shares take a drop, since it would have meant keeping the dividend for myself, rather than being subject to early assignment, I now face that assignment as shares are again well above the strike.

However, while entertaining thoughts of rolling those shares over to a higher strike at the same expiration date or the same strike at next week’s expiration, I may also consider adding additional shares of Intel, for its dividend, premiums and share appreciation, as well. Given some of the confusion recently about prospects for the semi-conductor industry, I think Intel’s vision of what the future holds is as good as the industry can offer if looking for a crystal ball.

What can possibly be said about Herbalife (HLF) at this point that hasn’t already been said, ad nauseum. I’m still somewhat stunned that a single author can write 86 or so articles on Herbalife in a 365 day period and find anything new to say, although there is always the chance that singular opinion expressed may be vindicated.

The reality is that we all need to await some kind of regulatory and/or legal decisions regarding the fate of this company and its business practices.

So, like any other publicly traded company, whether under an additional microscope or not, Herbalife reports earnings this week, having announced it also reached an agreement on Friday regarding a class action suit launched by a past dis
tributor of its products.

The options market is predicting a 16% movement in shares upon earnings release. At its Friday closing price, the lower end of that range would find shares at approximately $44. However, a weekly 1% ROI could still be obtained if selling a put option 35% below Friday’s close.

That is an extraordinary margin, but it may be borne out of extraordinary circumstances, as Monday’s earnings release may include other information regarding pending lawsuits, regulatory or legal actions that could conceivably send shares plummeting.

Or soaring.

On a more sedate, and maybe less controversial note, Whole Foods (WFM) reports earnings this week. I’m still saddled with an expensive lot of shares, that has been offset a bit by the assignment of 4 other lots this year, including this past week.

After a series of bad earnings results and share declines I think the company will soon be reporting positive results from its significant national expansion efforts.

While I generally use the sale of puts when considering an earnings related trade, usually because I would prefer not owning shares, Whole Foods is one that I would approach from either direction. While its payout ratio is higher than its peers, I think there may also be a chance that there will be a dividend increase, particularly as some of the capital expenditures will be decreasing.

While not reporting earnings this week, The Gap (GPS) is expected to provide monthly same store sales. It continues to do so, going against the retail tide, and it often sees its shares move wildly. Those moves are frequently on a monthly alternating basis, which certainly taxes rational thought.

Last month, it reported decreased same store sales, but also coupled that news with the very unexpected announcement that its CEO was leaving. Shares subsequently plummeted and have been very slow to recover.

As expected, the premium this week is significantly elevated as it reflects the risk associated with the monthly report. As with Whole Foods, this trade can also justifiably be approached wither from the direction of a traditional buy/write or put sale. In either case, some consideration should also be given to the fact that The Gap will also report its quarterly earnings right before the conclusion of the November 2014 option cycle, which can offer additional opportunity or peril.

Also like Whole Foods, I currently own a much more expensive lot of Las Vegas Sands (LVS), but have had several assigned lots subsequently help to offset those paper losses. Shares have been unusually active lately, increasingly tied to news from China, where Las Vegas Sands has significant interests in Macao.

Share ownership in Las Vegas Sands can be entertaining in its own right, as there has lately been a certain roller coaster quality from one day to the next, helping to account for its attractive option premium. In the absence of significant economic downturn news in China, which was the root cause of the recent decline, it appears that shares have found some support at its current level. Together with those nice premiums and an attractive dividend, I’m not adverse to taking a gamble on these always volatile shares, even in a market that may have some uncertainty attached to it.

Finally, Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) each reported earnings last week and were mentioned as potential earnings related trades, particularly through the sale of put options.

Both saw their shares drop sharply after the releases, however, the option markets predicted the expected ranges quite well and for those looking to wring out a 1% weekly ROI even in the face of post-earnings price disappointment were rewarded.

I didn’t take the opportunities, but still see some in each of those companies this week.

While Twitter received nothing but bad press last week and by all appearances is a company that is verging on some significant dysfunction, it is quietly actually making money. It just can’t stick with a set of metrics that are widely accepted and validated as having relevance to the satisfaction of analysts and investors.

It also can’t decide who to blame for the dysfunction, but investors are increasingly questioning the abilities of its CEO, having forgotten that Twitter was a dysfunctional place long before having gone public and long before Dick Costolo became CEO.

At its current price and with its current option premiums the sale of out of the money puts looks as appealing as they did the previous week, as long as prepared to rollover those puts or take assignment of shares in the event the market isn’t satisfied with assurances.

Facebook, on the other hand is far from dysfunctional. Presumably, its shares were punished once Mark Zuckerberg mentioned upcoming increased spending. Of course, there’s also the issue of additional shares hitting the markets, as part of the WhatsApp purchase.

Both of those are reasonable concerns, but it’s very hard to detract from the vision and execution by Zuckerberg and Cheryl Sandberg.

However, the option market continues to see the coming week’s options priced as if there was more than the usual amount of risk inherent in share pricing. I think that may be a mistake, even while its pricing of risk was well done the previous week.

Bears may be beaten and wondering what hit them, but a good tonic is profit and the sale of puts on Facebook could make bears happy while hedging their bets on a market that may put rational thought to rest for a little while longer.

Traditional Stocks: Starbucks, The Gap

Momentum: Facebook, Twitter, Las Vegas Sands

Double Dip Dividend: British Petroleum (11/5), Intel (11/5)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: Herbalife (11/3 PM), Whole Foods (11/5 PM)

Jul272014

More and More Earnings

TheAcsManDaily Market Update

After last week’s deluge of 150 of the S&P 500 companies reporting their earnings this week is a relatively calm one.

For all of its gyrations last week, including the sell-off on Friday, if you simply looked at the market’s net change you would have thought that it was a quiet week as well.

The initial week of earnings season did see seem promise coming from the financial sector. Last week was a mixed one, as names such as Facebook (FB) and Amazon (AMZN) went in very different directions and the initial responses to earnings didn’t necessarily match the final result, such as in the case of NetFlix (NFLX).

While some of the sell-off on Friday may be attributed to the announcement of additional European Council sanctions against Russia and perhaps even the late in the session downgrade of stocks and bonds by Goldman Sachs (GS), earnings had gotten most of the week’s attention.

The coming week offers another opportunity to consider potential trades that can profit regardless of the direction of share price movements, as long as they stay reasonably close to the option market’s predictions of their trading range in response to those reports.

In line with my own tolerance for risk and my own definition of what constitutes a suitable reward for the risk, I prefer the consideration of trades that can return at least 1% for the sale of a weekly put option at a strike level that is below the lower boundary defined by the option market’s assessment. Obviously, everyone’s risk-reward profile differs, but I believe that consistent application or standardizing criteria by individual investors is part of a discipline that can make such trades less anxiety provoking and less tied to emotional factors.

Occasionally, I will consider the outright purchase of shares and the sale of calls, rather than the sale of puts for such trades, but that is usually the case if there is also the consideration of an upcoming ex-dividend date, such as will be the case with Phillips 66 (PSX). Additionally, doing so would most likely be done if I had no hesitancy regarding the ownership of shares. In contrast, often when I sell puts I have no real interest in owning the shares and would much prefer expiration or the ability to roll over those contracts if assignment appeared likely.

This coming week there again appear to be a number of stocks deserving attention as the reward may be well suited to the level of risk, thanks to the option premiums that are enhanced before earnings are released.

As often is the case the stocks that are most likely to be able to deliver a 1% or greater premium at a strike level outside of the implied move range are already volatile stocks, whose volatility is even greater in response to earnings. While at first glance an implied move of 12%, as is the case for Yelp (YELP) may seem unusually large, past history shows that concerns for moves of that magnitude are warranted.

Among the companies that I am considering this coming week are Anadarko (APC), Herbalife (HLF), MasterCard (MA), Mosaic (MOS), Merck (MRK), Outerwall (OUTR), Phillips 66, T-Mobile (TMUS), Twitter (TWTR) and Yelp.

These potential trades are entirely based upon what may be a discrepancies between the implied price movement and option premiums that will return the desired premium. Generally, I don’t think very much about those issues that may have relevance prior to considering a purchase of shares. The focus is entirely on numbers and whether the risk-reward proposition is appealing. Issues such as whether people are tweeting enough or whether a company is based upon a pyramid strategy can wait until the following week. Hopefully, by that time I would be freed from the position and would be less interested in those issues.

Deciding to pull the trigger is often a function of the prevailing price dynamic. My preference when selling put contracts is to do so if shares are falling in price in advance of earnings. For example, last week I did not sell puts on Facebook (FB), as its shares rose sharply prior to earnings. In that case, that represented a missed opportunity, however.

Compared to the previous week’s close of trading when the market had a sizable gain, this past Friday there were widespread losses, perhaps resulting in a different dynamic as the coming week begins its trading.

While I would rather not take ownership of shares, there must be a realization that doing so may be inevitable or may require additional actions in order to prevent that unwanted outcome, such as rolling the put option forward, if possible.

If there is a large decline in share price well beyond that lower boundary, the investor should be prepared for an extended period of needing to juggle that position in order to avoid assignment while awaiting some price recovery. I have some positions, that I’ve done so for months. The end result may be satisfactory, but the process can be draining.

The table may be used as a guide for determining which of this week’s stocks meet risk-reward parameters. Re-assessments should be made as share prices option premiums and strike levels may change.

While the list can be used in executing trades before the release of earnings, there may also be opportunity to consider trades following earnings. I typically like to consider those trades if a stock moved higher before earnings and then plunged afterward, if in the belief that the response was an over-reaction to the news. In such cases there may be an opportunity to sell put options whose premiums will still see some enhancement as a reflection of the strong negative sentiment taking shares lower.

Ultimately, if large price movements are either anticipated or have already occurred there is usually some additional opportunity that arises with the perceived risk at hand. If the risk isn’t realized, or if the risk is managed appropriately, the reward can be very addictive.

Jul252014

Weekend Update – July 27, 2014

TheAcsManWeekend Update

It seems that almost every week over the past few months have both begun and ended with a quandary of which path to take.

Talk about indecision, for the previous seven weeks the market closed in the an alternating direction to the previous week. This past week was the equivalent of landing on the “green” as the S&P 500 was 0.12 higher for the week, but ending the streak.

Like the biology experiment that shows how a frog immersed in water that is slowly brought to a boil never perceives the impending danger to its life, the market has continued to set new closing record high after record high in a slow and methodical fashion.

With all the talk continuing about how money remains on the sidelines from 2008-9, you do have to wonder how getting into the market now is any different from that frog thinking about climbing into that pot as it nears its boiling point.

Unless there’s new money coming in what fuels growth?

That’s not to say that danger awaits or that the slow climb higher will lead to a change in state or a frenzied outburst of energy leading to some calamitous event, but the thought could cross some minds.

Perhaps Friday’s sell off will prompt some to select one path over another, although a single bubble doesn’t mean that as you’re immersed in a bath that it is coming to a boil. It may entirely be due to other reasons, such as your most recent meal, so it’s not always appropriate to jump to conclusions.

While the frog probably doesn’t really comprehend the slowly growing number of bubbles that seem to be arising from the water, investors may begin to notice the rising number of IPO offerings entering the market and particularly their difficulty in achieving pricing objectives.

I wonder what that might signify? The fact that suddenly my discount brokerage seems to be inundating me with IPO offers makes me realize that it does seem to be getting hotter and hotter around me.

This coming week I’ve had cash reserves replenished with a number of assignments, somehow surviving the week ending plunge and I see many prices having come down, even if just a little. That combination often puts me into a spending mood, that would be especially enhanced if Monday begins either on the downside or just tepidly higher.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or “PEE” categories.

The big news in the markets this week was Facebook (FB) as its earnings report continued to make clear that it has mastered the means to monetize a mobile strategy. While it produces nothing it’s market capitalization is stunning and working its way closer to the top spot. For those in the same or reasonably close sector, the trickle down was appreciated. One of those, Twitter (TWTR) reports earnings this week and the jury is still very much out on whether it has a viable product, a viable management team and even a viable life as an independent entity.

For all of those questions Twitter can be an exciting holding, if you like that sort of thing. I currently hold shares that were assigned to me after having fallen so much that I couldn’t continue the process of rolling over puts any longer. The process to recover has been slow, but speeded a bit by selling calls on the way higher. However, while that has been emotionally rewarding, but as may be the case when puts are sold and potential ownership is something that is shunned, has required lots of maintenance and maneuvering.

With earnings this week the opportunity arises again to consider the sale of new Twitter puts, either before earnings are released or if shares plunge, afterward.

The option market is implying an 11.7% move in shares upon earnings. a 1% weekly ROI may possibly be obtained at a strike price that’s 14.8% below Friday’s close.

While Twitter is filled with uncertainty, Starbucks (SBUX) has some history behind it that gives good reason to have continuing confidence. With the market having looked adversely at Starbucks’ earnings report, Howard Schultz gave an impassioned and wholly rational defense of the company, its operations and prospects.

In the past few years each time Starbucks shares have been pummeled after earnings and Schultz has done as he did on Friday, it has proven itself an excellent entry point for shares. Schultz has repeatedly shown himself to be among the most credible and knowledgeable of CEOs with regard to his own business and business strategy. He has been as bankable as anyone that can be found.

With an upcoming dividend, always competitive option premiums and Schultz standing behind it, the pullback on Friday may be a good time to re-consider adding shares, despite still trading near highs.

While I suppose Yelp (YELP) could tell me all about the nearest Starbucks and the experience that I might expect there, it’s not a site that gets my attention, particularly after seeing some reviews of restaurants that pilloried the businesses of places that my wife and I frequent repeatedly.

Still, there’s clearly something to be had of value through using the site for someone. What does have me interested is the potential opportunity that may exist at earnings. Yelp is no stranger to large moves at earnings and for those who like risk there can be reward in return. However, for those who like smaller dosages of each a 1% ROI for the week can potentially be achieved at a strike price of $58 based on Friday’s $68.68 closing priced and an implied move of 12%. Back in April 2014 I received an almost 3% ROI for the risk taken, but don’t believe that I’m willing to be so daring now that I’m older.

Following the market’s sharp drop on Friday it was difficult to not jump the gun a little bit as some prices looked to be either “too good” or just ready. One of those was General Motors (GM). Having survived earnings last week,
albeit with a sizeable share drop over the course of a few days and wading its way through so much litigation, it is quietly doing what it is supposed to be doing and selling its products. An energized consumer will eventually trade in those cars that have long passed their primes, as for many people what they drive is perceived as the best insight into their true standing in society. General Motors has traded nicely as it has approached $33 and offers a nice premium and attractive dividend, making it fit in nicely with a portfolio that tries to accentuate income streams even while shares my gyrate in price.

I never get tired of thinking about adding shares of eBay (EBAY). With some of my shares assigned this past Friday despite some recent price strength after earnings, I think it is now in that mid-point of its trading range from where it has been relatively easy to manage the position even with some moves lower.

Carl Icahn has remained incredibly quiet on his position in eBay and my guess, based on nothing at all, is that there is some kind of behind the scenes convergence of thought between Icahn and eBay’s CEO, John Donahoe, regarding the PayPal jewel.

With all of the recent talk about “old tech,” there’s reason to consider one of the oldest, Texas Instruments (TXN) which goes ex-dividend this coming week. Having recently traded near its year’s high, shares have come down considerably following earnings, over the course of a few days. While still a little on the high side, it has lots of company in that regard, but at least has the goods to back up its price better than many others. It, too, offers an attractive combination of dividend, premiums and still possibility of share appreciation.

Reporting earnings this week are both MasterCard (MA) and MetLife (MET). Neither are potential trades whose premiums are greatly enhanced by the prospects of earnings related surprises. Both, however, are companies that I would like to once again own, possibly through the sale of put options prior to earnings being announced.

MasterCard suffered on Friday as collateral damage to Visa’s (V) earnings, which helped drag the DJIA down far more than the S&P 500, despite the outsized contribution by Amazon (AMZN) which suffered a % decline after earnings. On top of that are worries again from the Russian market, which earlier in the year had floated the idea of their own credit system. Now new rules impacting payment processors in Russia is of concern.

MasterCard has been able to generate satisfactory option premiums during an otherwise low volatility environment and despite trading in a $72 – $78 range, as it has regular bounces, such as seen this past week.

I have been waiting for MetLife to trade down to about the $52 range for the past two months and perhaps earnings will be the impetus. For that reason I might be more inclined to consider opening a position through the sale of puts rather than an outright buy/write. However, also incorporated into that decision process is that shares will be going ex-dividend the following week and there is some downside to the sale of puts in the face of such an event, much as their may be advantage to selling calls into an ex-dividend date.

Finally, there hasn’t been much that has been more entertaining of late than the Herbalife (HLF) saga. After this past week’s tremendous alternating plunge and surge and the absolute debacle of a presentation by Bill Ackman that didn’t quite live up to its billing.

While there may certainly be lots of validity to Ackman’s claims, which are increasingly not being nuanced, the opportunity may exist on both sides of the controversy, as earnings are announced next week. Unless some significant news arises in addition to earnings, such as from the SEC or FTC, it is like any other high beta stock about to report earnings.

The availability of expanded weekly options makes the trade more appealing in the event of an adverse move bringing shares below the $61.50 level suggested by the implied volatility, allows some greater flexibility. However, because of the possibility of other events, my preference would be to have this be as short term of a holding as possible, such that if selling puts and seeing a rise in shares after earnings, I would likely sacrifice remaining value on the options and close the position, being happy with whatever quick profits were achieved.

Traditional Stocks: eBay, General Motors, MasterCard, MetLife, Starbucks

Momentum: none

Double Dip Dividend: Texas Instruments (7/29)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: Herbalife (7/28 PM), Twitter (7/29 PM), Yelp (7/30 PM)