Oct12016

Weekend Update – October 2, 2016

Weekend Update

Jim Carrey made, what was by most accounts, a truly putrid move entitled “The Number 23.”

At its heart was the “23 enigma,” which is the belief that most of life’s events and incidents are somehow related to the number 23.

For example, you liked how that new sweater fit on you? The number 23.

Need more proof? The burning of Joan of Arc? The number 23.

While those may be disputable to non-believers, this was certainly the week validating the 17 enigma.

Interestingly, the great director Alfred Hitchcock made a movie entitled “The Number 17,” which is regarded among his worst and is rarely ever screened.

This past week, however, the number 17 may have been the key to five days of indecisive trading that saw triple digit moves each day, only to see the S&P 500 end the week with a 0.2% movement.

What the past week gave us were 17 separate occasions during the week when members of the Federal Reserve gave scheduled presentations.

17 is a prime number.

The prime rate is based on the federal funds rate, which is set by the FOMC and their actions or inactions have been ruling markets for months.

Do you really need any more proof than that?

If you do not, that turns out to be very fortunate, but there’s not too much doubt that it has become a free for all in terms of getting one’s interest rate opinion out in front of as many people as possible.  

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Jul92016

Weekend Update – July 10, 2016

Weekend Update

 I still have a fascination with license plates and the bumper stickers put on their cars.

The license plate thing these days is more geared toward trying to decipher the message contained on someone’s vanity plates.

That often takes a combination of having a very open mind as to the intended grouping of letters and numbers and to the message.

Of course, the exercise isn’t complete until then driving past the car driver and either giving them a thumbs up or a shoulder shrug.

The bumper sticker thing is more just a question of reading and then trying to imagine what the person in the car will look like once going past them.

For example, in my experience, those with the “Choose Civility” bumper sticker tend to be very rude drivers, but they don’t look rude.

What both fascinations have in common is that as I get older, the distance that I need to get within range to be able to read the plates and the bumper stickers is increasingly getting smaller and smaller.

That brings some danger, but sometimes it’s really hard to resist.

When I say “sometimes,” I mean that I can never resist and it is the reason that my wife won’t let me drive when we’re together.

I need to be within range.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha

 

 

Mar252016

Weekend Update

All in all, if you think about the man made tragic events of the past week in Brussels, the very rational and calm manner in which world markets reacted was really re-assuring.

When we sometimes scratch our heads wondering whether the market will this time interpret good news as being bad or whether it will deem it good, you know that something is amiss.

It’s nice when clear and rational heads are in charge of things.

So often the way the market seems to react to events it’s not too easy to describe the action as having been rational and you really do have to wonder just who is running the place.

The same may be said for the Federal Reserve and its Governors.

It wasn’t always that way, though.

We always knew who was running the place.

While dictatorships may not be a good thing, sometimes a benevolent dictatorship isn’t the worst of all possible worlds.

There was a time that the individual members of the Federal Reserve and the FOMC kept their thoughts to themselves and knew how to behave in public and in private.

That is, up until about 11 years ago when newly appointed and now departed President of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Richard Fisher, had made a comment regarding FOMC monetary tightening policy and was subsequently taken to the woodshed by Alan Greenspan.

That error in judgment, offering one’s opinion, wasn’t repeated again until the new Federal reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, ushered in an era of transparency, openness and the occasional dissenting vote.

At that time, Fisher didn’t even disagree with Federal reserve policy. He was simply giving his opinion on the timing left in an existing policy, or perhaps just disclosing what he knew to be the remaining time of that particular approach.

Still, that kind of behavior was unheard of and not terribly well tolerated.

Now, under Janet Yellen, it seems as if the various Governors are battling with one another over who gets the most air time and who can make the most noise.

Clearly, inmates can be intelligent people, but there may be a very good reason why they’re not running the show.

Why the market often latches onto the words of an FOMC inmate or one who’s not even in that inner circle, particularly when those words may run counter to the Chairman’s own recent words, is every bit of a mystery as why those words were uttered in the first place.

But that is where we seem to be at the moment as the crystal clear clarity that we’ve come to expect from the Federal Reserve is sounding more like the noises coming from the Tower of Babel.

And we all know how that worked out.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in the Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or "PEE" categories.

When there is so much confusion abounding, sometimes it makes some sense to get right back to basics.

There isn’t a much more basic approach to stocks than looking for safe and reliable dividend paying companies, especially when the waters are murky or choppy.

While I don’t disagree with those who point to the out-performance of the universe of dividend paying stocks to the universe of non-dividend paying stocks, I’m not a big fan of the dividend itself and it’s usually fruitless to argue the belief held by many that it is the dividend that makes the company a worthwhile investment that is prone to outperform others.

Ultimately you pay for that dividend by virtue of your share price having gone down the amount of the dividend and you may have to pay taxes as well, on that distribution.

What I do like about dividends is how some of that inherent decline in the share price may end up being subsidized by an option buyer and that can boost the return.

Most of the time, my preference would be to be able to get the premium from having sold the option, most often of weekly duration, and also to be able to collect the dividend.

What i especially like, although it doesn’t happen too often, is when a stock is ex-dividend on a Monday.

In such cases, if the option buyer is going to exercise his right to snatch those shares at a pre-determined price, he must do so no later than the previous Friday.

What I like to do with those Monday ex-dividend positions is to sell an extended weekly option and then I don’t really care too much if those shares get taken away from me early. 

That’s because the additional week’s premium offsets the loss of the dividend while being able to take the cash from the assignment to invest in some other position.

Maybe even an upcoming ex-dividend position.

While not every position that I’m considering in the coming week will be ex-dividend the following Monday, that does characterize most of the potential trades for the coming week.

To put them all of those into a single basket, Cisco (CSCO),  Comcast (CMCSA), Deere (DE) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM) are all ex-dividend next Monday.

They each have their own story to tell and since 2016 has been an incredibly quiet one for me in terms of adding new positions, there is virtually no chance that i will be adding all of them.

At the moment I do own shares of Cisco, but none of the other positions, all representing different sectors.

With everything else being equal, I’d probably be more inclined to consider adding shares to a sector in which I may be under-invested.

For me, that would be the finance sector, which has been embattled all year as the expected interest rate climbs haven’t materialized.

For many, the decision by JM Morgan’s Jamie Dimon to buy $26 million in his own shares was the impetus to turn the market around from its steep 2016 losses.

That turnaround started on February 11, 2016.

Those shares are still far from their 2016 high and sooner or later the inmates trading stocks and the inmates making policy will be right about the direction of interest rates.

I still hold somewhat of a grudge against Comcast when I was a consumer of its services. However, it would be the height of irrationality to ignore it for what it could contribute to my non-viewing or non-internet surfing well-being.

Once a disruptor in its own right, Comcast is working hard to remain at the cutting edge or itself be displaced as the competition and the various means of delivering content are getting more and more complex to understand.

That may be its saving grace.

When you get right down to it, nothing is as simple as having a box, your television and your computer. While there’s decidedly nothing simplistic about what Comcast is doing and where it envisions going, at some point consumers may get overwhelmed by the growth in disparate and unconnected systems and may again long for bringing it all back together under a single roof.

Even if it is and continues to be challenged, Comcast is a few dollars below some resistance and I would feel comfortable adding shares in advance of its ex-dividend date.

I haven’t owned shares of Deere for a long time, just as I haven’t owned shares of caterpillar (CAT). The two of those used to be mainstays of my portfolio, if not both at the same time, then at least alternating, often with a new purchase being initiated as an ex-dividend date was approaching.

What appeals to me about Deere at the moment is that it is a little bit off from its recent highs and only a bit higher than where it stood on February 11th.

But more importantly, this week, as with all of the other potential selections, there is a nice dividend and an equally nice option premium. That combination lends itself to any number of potential contract lengths and strike levels, depending on one’s horizon.

While I especially like the Monday ex-dividend date, this is a position that i might consider wanting to hold for a longer period of time in an effort to either reap additional option premiums or some capital gains from shares, in addition to premiums and the dividend.

While I do already own shares of Cisco and it has bounced back nicely in the past 6 weeks, I think that it, too, has some more upside potential, if only to get it back to some resistance about 5% higher from its current level.

Like most others mentioned this week, there is a generous dividend and a generous option premium that make any consideration worthwhile.

As with Deere, while the Monday ex-dividend date may lead to one specific strategy, there may also be some consideration of utilizing longer dated contracts and further out of the money strike prices in order to capitalize on some anticipated price appreciation.

By contrast, I own shares of both The Gap (GPS) and Dow Chemical (DOW).

There has been absolutely nothing good that has been said about The Gap in far too long of a time.

There was a time that The Gap could be counted upon to alternated its monthly same store sales between worse than expected and better than expected results. as a result The Gap’s shares would frequently bounce back and forth on a monthly basis and it had periodically enhanced option premiums to reflect those consistent moves.

Lately though, the news has always been disappointing and the direction of shares has been unilateral, that is, until February 11th.

There’s not too much of a likelihood that The Gap’s recent performance is related to oil prices or interest rates, but it is certainly long overdue for a sustained move higher.

At its current level, i wouldn’t mind shares staying in the same neighborhood for a while and building some support for another leg. In the meantime, at this level there is some opportunity to collect the dividend and some reasonably health premiums, as well.

Finally, just as last week, I think that there may be opportunity in Dow Chemical.

While it has unjustifiably been held hostage by falling oil prices for more than a year, it has performed admirably. The market reacted positively when the announcement was made of its fairly complex merger and subsequently planned uncoupling with DuPont (DD), although the favor was lost as the rest of the market sank.

I continue to believe that there is relatively little risk associated with shares in the event the proposed merger runs into obstacles, as shares are trading at pre-announcement levels.

That combination of dividends and option premiums keeps making Dow Chemical an appealing consideration even as lunatics may be running around elsewhere.

 

Traditional Stocks: none

Momentum Stocks: none

Double-Dip Dividend: Comcast (4/4 $0.27), CSCO (4/4 $0.26), Deere (3/29 $0.60), DOW (3/29 $0.46), GPS (4/4 $0.23), JPM (4/4 $0.44)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: None

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. The above selections may become actionable – most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts – in adjustment to and consideration of market movements. The overriding objective is to create a healthy income stream for the week, with reduction of trading risk. 

Feb272016

Weekend Update – February 28, 2016

Weekend Update

It is really amazing that as big as the United States’ economy is, everything may now simply be part of a very delicate balancing act.

“Momentum” is a simple concept in classical mechanics and is generally expressed as the product of the mass of an object and its velocity.

The term “momentum” is often used when describing stocks, but many described as having momentum can be easily pushed off their track.

Another simple concept and part of classical physics, is that of “inertia.” Inertia is the resistance of any physical object to any change in its state of motion.

When a “momentum stock” has a relatively low market capitalization it isn’t too hard for resistance to match and overcome that momentum.

Greed and fear may play roles, too, in such cases, but those aren’t terms that Isaac Newton used very often.

The US economy may often move at what seems like a glacial speed, but its easy to overlook how difficult it is to alter its path due to its huge size.

That’s what makes the job of the FOMC so difficult. 

Outcomes resulting from their actions may take a long, long time to become obvious. Sometimes the FOMC acts to increase momentum and sometimes they have to act to increase resistance.

Stock market investors prefer the former, but history suggests that the early stages of the latter may be a great time for optimism.

While both momentum and inertia may be simple concepts, when considered together that’s not so much the case. Fortunately for the FOMC, the “Irresistible Force Paradox” suggests that there can be no such thing as an unstoppable object or an irresistible force.

Something has to give over the course of time.

While I’m no apologist for the George Bush presidency, the seeds for the beginning of an improvement in the economy often cited as beginning in about February 2009 could only have been sown much earlier. Similarly the economic stress in early 2001 could only have had its roots quite a bit earlier. However, our minds make temporal associations and credit or blame is often laid at the feet of the one lucky or unlucky enough to be in charge at the time something becomes obvious.

We’re now facing two delicate balances.

The first is the one continually faced by the FOMC, but that has been on most everyone’s mind ever since Janet Yellen became Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

The balance between managing inflation and not stifling economic growth has certainly been on the minds of investors. Cursed by that habit of making temporal associations, the small interest rate hike at the end of 2015, which was feared by many, could be pointed to as having set the stage for the market’s 2016 correction.

That leaves the FOMC to ponder its next step. 

While stressing that its decisions are “data driven” they can’t be completely dismissive of events around them, just as they briefly made mention of some global economic instability a few months ago, widely believed to have been related to China.

This past week’s GDP sent mixed messages regarding the critical role of the consumer, even as the previous week showed an increase in the Consumer Price Index. Whether rising health care costs or rising rents, which were at the core of the Consumer Price Index increase could hardly be interpreted as representing consumer participation, the thought that comes to mind is that if you’re a hammer everything looks like a nail.

The FOMC has to balance the data and its meaning with whatever biases each voting member may have. At the same time investors have to balance their fear of rising rates with the realization that could be reflecting an economy poised to grow and perhaps to do so in an orderly way.

But there’s another delicate balance at hand.

While we’ve all been watching how oil prices have whipsawed the stock market, there’s been the disconnect between lower oil prices borne out of excess supply and stock market health.

For those pleased to see energy prices moving higher because the market has gone in the same direction, there has to be a realization that there will be a point that what is perceived as good news will finally be recognized as being something else.

It’s hard to imagine that a continuing rise in oil will continue to be received as something positive by investors. Hopefully, though, that realization will be slow in coming. Otherwise, we face having had the worst of all worlds. Stocks declining as oil declined and then stocks declining as oil moves higher.

Now that JP Morgan Chase (JPM) has let everyone know just how on the hook it may be on its oil loan portfolio, it’s becoming more and more clear why the market is following in the same direction as oil has gone.

If the price of oil goes too low there may be drains on the banking system if there are defaults on those loans. We could again be hearing the phrase “too big to fail,” although this time instead of over-leveraged individuals losing their homes, all of the beneficiaries from the US oil boom could be at risk.

Of course, if oil goes too high and does so without being fundamentally driven, it can put a damper on a consumer driven economy that isn’t looking very robust to start.

We’re just 3 weeks away from the next FOMC Statement release and Chairman Yellen’s press conference may tip some balances. For much of the past two weeks the stock market has been celebrating higher oil and data suggesting no immediately forthcoming interest rate increase.

Of course, the FOMC may have its own irresistible force at play, perhaps explaining the earlier interest rate hike which didn’t seem to be supported by economic data. That force may be. a pre-determined intention to see rates rise

The market is of the belief that oil price momentum higher won’t meet its match in the negating force of increased interest rates, but one person may hold the balance in her hands.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in the Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or “PEE” categories.

Speaking of momentum and being easily thrown of track, Cypress Semiconductor (CY) comes to mind.

It trades at a high beta and is prone to volatile moves in either direction. It’s most recent direction has been lower, after having spiked sharply higher on news of its proposed buyout of another company.

When they were stranded at the alter by another suitor shares started a sharp descent from which it may finally be ready to emerge.

With a market capitalization of less than $3 billion it was easily knocked off track, but could just as easily get back on.

With an ex-dividend date in the April 2016 option cycle and with earnings in the May 2016 option cycle, I’m likely to add shares this coming week and will probably sell the April 2016 options while doing so.

I do have some concern about the company being able to continue its dividend, but IU don’t imagine that most who are invested in Cypress Semiconductor are doing it for the dividend, so I don’t believe that would represent significant downside pressure.

While February’s nice turnaround has left the S&P 500 significantly less in the hole for 2016. the financial sector has been continuing to have a difficult time as expectations for rising interest rates have proved premature.

American International Group (AIG) is near a 52 week low, but it hasn’t been the worst of that group even as it approaches a 20% correction for 2016.

What the downward pressure in the financial sector has brought has been enhanced option premiums. With a now respectable dividend as part of the equation and an ex-dividend the following week, I would consider selling something other than a weekly option

Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) is on a roll of late and has earnings announced this week. It has a habit of being explosive when it does announce earnings and also has a habit of quickly giving back gains from news perceived as being positive. However, it has not given back the gains since its gap higher in November 2015.

What may make consideration of Abercrombie interesting this week is that it is also ex-dividend on the same day as earnings are announced.

While I normally consider the sale of puts before or after earnings, the combination of earnings, an ex-dividend date and a 13.3% implied price move has me thinking a bit differently.

I’m thinking of buying shares and then selling deep in the money calls.

Based on Friday’s closing price of $28.50, the sale of a weekly $25 strike call option at a premium of $4 would result in an ROI of 1.8% if assigned early in order to capture the dividend.

Since the ex-dividend date is March 2nd, that early assignment would have to come on Tuesday, March 1st and would preclude earnings exposure.

If, however, early assignment does not occur, the potential ROI for a full week of holding could be 2.5%, but with earnings risk. The $25 strike price is within the lower boundary implied by the option market, so one has to be prepared for a price move that may require further action.

Weyerhauser (WY) is also ex-dividend this week and its 2016 YTD loss is nearly 15%. The consensus among analysts, who are so often very late to react to good or bad news, are solidly bullish on shares at these levels.

With its merger with Plum Creek Timber now complete, many expect significant cost savings and operational synergies. 

It’s dividend isn’t quite as high and its payout ratio is almost half that of Cypress Semiconductor, but still far too high to be sustained. REIT or no REIT, paying out more than 100% of your earnings may feel good for a while if you’re on the receiving end, but is only a formula for Ponzi schemers of “The Producers.”

For now, that doesn’t concern me, but with an eye toward the upcoming ex-dividend date, which is on a Friday, I would consider selling an extended weekly option and then wouldn’t mind terribly if the options were exercised early.

Finally, I’m not one to be very interested in getting in on a stock following a climb higher, nor am I one to spend too much time reading charts.

But Coach (COH) which is ex-dividend this week gives me some reason to be interested.

A one-time favorite of mine either right before an ex-dividend date or following a large earnings related price decline, I’ve been holding onto an uncovered lot of shares for quite some time. Only the dividend has made it tolerable.

Ordinarily, I wouldn’t be terribly interested in considering adding shares of Coach following a 16% climb in the past month. However, shares are now making their second run at resistance and there is an 11% gap higher if it can successfully test that resistance.

It has been a prolonged drought for Coach as it was completely made irrelevant by Kors (KORS) for quite some time. During that time Kors had momentum and was also perceived as the force to stop Coach.

Time and tastes can change lots of things. That’s another delicate balance and for now, the balance seems to be back on the side of Coach.

Traditional Stocks: American International Group

Momentum Stocks: Cypress Semiconductor

Double-Dip Dividend: Coach (3/2 $0.34), Weyerhauser (3/4 $0.31)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: Abercrombie and Fitch (3/2 AM)

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. The above selections may become actionable — most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts — in adjustment to and consideration of market movements. The overriding objective is to create a healthy income stream for the week, with reduction of trading risk.

Feb142016

Weekend Update – February 14, 2016

Weekend Update

It’s not only campaigns that are going negative.

After having watched the latest in political debates on both sides of the aisle, the negative finally coming to the surface should no longer come as a surprise.

Maybe the real surprise should have been just how long the professional politicians on both sides were able to keep that negativity mostly bottled up.

There’s certainly nothing illegal about engaging in a negative political campaign and we have heard time and time again that politicians pursue that unsavory strategy because it works.

It’s also a strategy that’s not unique to the United States. The last unicorn was apparently spotted in Canada and ex-Prime Minister of Great Britain, Tony Blair, was frequently called “Tony Bliar.”

Maybe the fact that such an approach works is why central banks around the world are increasingly giving some thought to going negative.

Negative interest rates are now all the rage after the Bank of Japan had already gone in that direction a few weeks ago.

This week there was at least some suggestion that particular strategy wasn’t entirely off the table in the United States as some are beginning to question just what arrows the Federal Reserve has left in its quiver in the event of an economic slowdown.

Janet Yellen, during her two day mandated session in front of Congressional committees this week said that she didn’t even know whether the Federal Reserve had the legal authority to implement negative interest rates in the United States, but that didn’t stop the worries over what such a scenario would mean with regard to the economy that drove it there.

While oil continued to be the major stock market mover for 2016, this week had some diversification as precious metals began to soar and interest rates continued to plunge.

Who would have predicted this just a couple of months ago when the FOMC saw it fit to begin a slow increase in interest rates?

But just as the week was looking as if it would create a February 2016 that would have us pining for the good old days of January 2016, oil rebounded and Jamie Dimon came to the rescue with a $26 million expression of confidence in the banking system.

Even in the economy of Djibouti, $26 million isn’t that big of a deal, but when Dimon elected to purchase shares in the open market for only the 3rd time in his tenure at JP Morgan Chase, it may have been the first vote of confidence in anything in 2016.

Fortunately, we have a holiday shortened trading week ahead to help us digest the gains seen on Friday that left the S&P 500 only 0.9% lower on the week.

While we’ve had a recent run of strong week ending trading sessions, there hasn’t been much in the way of staying power. Maybe a long weekend will help.

What the day off will also do is to give us a chance to actually try to understand the significance of negative interest rates even as the market seemed concerned just a couple of days earlier that a March 2016 interest rate hike wasn’t off the table.

Last week’s reactions by the market to interest rates was akin to being both afraid of the dark and the light as the market understandably went back and forth in spasms of fear and relief.

Going negative usually reflects some sort of fear and a concern that more conventional approaches aren’t going to deliver the hoped for results.

It may also reflect some desperation as there comes a perception that there is nothing really to lose.

I can understand a Presidential candidate using a profanity during a public appearance and I can even understand one Presidential candidate referring to another as “a jerk.”

That kind of negativity I get, but I’m having a really hard time understanding the concept of negative interest rates.

While I understand relative negative rates during periods of high inflation, the very idea that paying to keep your money in the bank would become similar to paying someone to store your cache of gold bars is confusing to me.

Why would you do that? Why would I want to pay money to a bank just so they could make even more money by putting my money to use?

I know that it’s not quite that simple, but I would be happy if I could get a bank to lend money to me at a negative interest rate, but somehow I don’t envision the APR on credit cards reflecting that kind of environment anytime soon.

Now, if you really wanted to spur consumer spending, that may be just the way to do it. Why not apply a monthly negative interest rate to a credit card balance and the longer you keep the balance open the more likely it will disappear as the negative interest accumulates and works down your debt.

The money you don’t spend on your monthly payments could easily then be used to spur even more consumer spending.

If that isn’t a win – win, then I just don’t know what would be.

I suppose I understand the theory behind how negative interest rates may prompt banks, such as Dimon’s JP Morgan Chase (JPM) to put deposits to work by increasing their lending activity, but I wonder how the lending risk is managed as thoughts of recession are coming to the surface.

As I recall, it wasn’t that long ago that poor management of lending risk put us all at risk.

The coming week will have the release of some FOMC meeting minutes and we may get to see whether there was even the slightest consideration given to going negative.

It’s not too likely that will have come up, but as we may now be witnessing, it is possible that the FOMC’s crystal ball is no better than those owned by the least informed of us.

What was clear, however, as the market began to sink back to a “bad news is good news” kind of mentality is that negative rates weren’t the kind of bad news that anyone could embrace.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in the Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or “PEE” categories.

Among many stocks that fared well on Friday as the market found a reason to mount some rebound from the onslaught earlier in the week was Best Buy (BBY).

Best Buy’s performance was especially impressive as it opened the d
ay 6% lower following a downgrade, they ended the day more than 1% higher.

I generally don’t want to add positions after a sharp climb higher, but as Best Buy is set to report earnings during the first week of the March 2016 option cycle, I am willing to consider the sale of puts in the week prior to those earnings, as the recent volatility has its rewards reflected in the available premiums.

If faced with assignment the premiums are enhanced due to earnings and there may be good opportunity to roll the short put position over, although if doing so, some thought has to be given to the upcoming ex-dividend date likely sometime before the beginning of the April 2016 option cycle.

If faced with assignment of shares just prior to that ex-dividend date, I’d be inclined to accept that assignment in order to have both the chance to sell calls and to possibly collect the dividend, as well.

While its options are less liquid than those of Best Buy, I would consider doing the same with Weyerhauser (WY), although earnings don’t have to be contended with until the May 2016 option cycle.

With an upcoming merger expected to close sometime in the first or second quarters of 2016, Weyerhauser has badly trailed the S&P 500 since the announcement was made 3 months ago.

That is despite the belief by many that the proposed merger with Plum Creek Timber (PCL) represents a good strategic fit and offers immediate financial synergy.

At this point, I just like the low price, the relatively high option premium and the potential to take ownership of shares in order to also try and collect the generous dividend just a few weeks away.

Due to the lesser liquidity of the options, there can also be some consideration to simply doing a buy/write and perhaps selecting an out of the money strike price with an expiration after the ex-dividend date.

Sinclair Broadcasting (SBGI) is another that hasn’t fared terribly well in the past few months and has also under-performed the S&P 500 of late.

It is a stock that I often purchase right before an ex-dividend date, as long as its price is reasonable by its historical standards.

For me, that reasonable price is around $29. It failed to break through resistance at $33 and has fallen about 18% in February, bringing the price to where I like to consider entry.

Share price hasn’t been helped by a recent downgrade on earnings warnings and the announced buyout of The Tennis Channel.

In the meantime, Sinclair Broadcasting remains the most potent play in local television in the nation and is increasingly diversifying its assets.

With earnings and an ex-dividend date both due early in the March 2016 option cycle and with only monthly options available, this is a position that I would consider selling longer term and out of the money contracts upon, such as the $30 June 2016 contract.

Sinclair Broadcasting’s stock price history suggests that it tends not to stay depressed for more than a couple of months after having approached a near term low. Hopefully, it’s current level is that near term low, but by using a June 2016 option expiration there may be sufficient time to ride out any further decline.

Following an even stronger gain than the S&P 500’s 1.9% advance to close the week, General Electric (GE) is now almost even with the S&P 500 for 2016.

That’s not a great selling point.

General Electric seems to have just successfully tested an important support level, but that risk does remain, particularly if the overall market takes another leg down.

In that case, there may be some significant risk, as there could be another 15% downside in an effort to find some support.

Thus far, the moves in 2016 have been fairly violent, both lower and higher, with an overall net downward bias. There isn’t too much reason to believe that pattern will soon reverse itself and for that reason option premiums, such as for General Electric are higher than they have been for quite some time.

While numerous stocks can make a case that their current prices represent an attractive entry level, General Electric can certainly pick up the pieces even if there is further downside.

The worst case scenario in the event of further price declines is that the General Electric position becomes a longer term one while you collect a nice dividend and maybe some additional option premiums along the way.

T-Mobile (TMUS) reports earnings this week.

I’m struck by two things as that event approaches.

The first is what seems to be an even increasing number of T-Mobile television ads and the increasing financial burden that must be accruing as it continues to seek and woo subscribers away from its competitors.

The second comes from the option market.

I generally look at the “implied move” predicted by the option market when a company is about to report earnings. For most companies, the option premiums near the strike price are very similar for both puts and calls, particularly if the current price is very close to the strike price. However, in the case of T-Mobile, there is considerable bias on the call side.

The implied move is about 8.1%, but about 5.4% of that is from the very high call premium. The clear message is that the option market expects T-Mobile to move higher next week. It’s unusual to see that much of a declaration of faith as is being demonstrated at the moment.

When I see something like that, the oppositional side of me even thinks about buying puts if I didn’t mind the almost all or none proposition involved with that kind of a trade.

However, rational though pushes that oppositional piece of me to the side and while I generally like the idea of selling puts ahead of earnings, in this case, there may be good reason to consider the purchase of shares and the sale of calls, perhaps even deep in the money calls, depending upon the balance of risk and reward that one can tolerate.

Finally, if you’ve been following the news, you know that it wasn’t a particularly good week to have been a cruise line or perhaps to have been a cruise line passenger. While there may be lots of great things about being a passenger, it seems that we hear more and more about how either a virus or the rough seas will take its toll.

With an upcoming ex-dividend date this week and a severe price descent, Carnival (CCL) is finally looking attractive to me again after nearly 18 months of not having owned shares.

With earnings early in the April 2016 cycle th
ere are a number of different approaches in the coming week to the shares.

One approach may simply be the purchase of shares and the concomitant sale of in the money February 2016 call options, which are the equivalent of a weekly option, as expiration is this Friday. In such as case, whether using the at the money or in the money strike, the intent is to at least generate option premium and perhaps the dividend, as well, while having the position exercised.

Alternatively, a larger premium can be exacted by selling a March 2016 out of the money option and more predictably ensuring the capture of the premium. With earnings coming early in the April 2016 option cycle, the more daring investor can also consider the use of even longer dated out of the money options in the hopes of getting an more substantive share gains in addition to the dividend and an earnings enhanced option premium.

I’m more inclined to go for the full journey on this one and extend my stay even if there may be some bumpiness ahead. 

Traditional Stocks: General Electric, Sinclair Broadcasting, Weyerhauser

Momentum Stocks: Best Buy

Double-Dip Dividend: Carnival (2/17 $0.30)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: T-Mobile (2/17 AM)

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. The above selections may become actionable – most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts – in adjustment to and consideration of market movements. The overriding objective is to create a healthy income stream for the week, with reduction of trading risk.