Daily Market Update – August 31, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update – August 31, 2016 (Close)


Yesterday was a return to the recent kind of normal we had come to expect.

Stocks traded in a very narrow range all through the day as most eyes were now looking toward Friday morning.

That’s when the Employment Situation report is released and we may get a better idea of when the FOMC may be increasing interest rates.

The Boston and Chicago Federal Reserve Presidents spoke in China yesterday and both seemed to believe that an interest rate hike was near, but they had very differing views of the economy.

The Chicago Federal Reserve President said that he believed there was evidence of the US economy slowing down, but that there would be an interest rate hike, anyway.

The Boston Federal Reserve Federal Reserve President believed that the economy was strengthening and meeting the FOMC’s targets.

So, the question is whether its September or December.

What is forgotten is that a number of months ago the FOMC said that it wasn’t tied by any particular scheduled meeting to make such an announcement.

Still, the next question is how the market would react to September, December or anything in between.

Friday may give some clue.

With a new position opened yesterday, I didn’t expect to be doing very much else for the rest of the week, so today wasn’t a disappointment in that regard.

It was a disappointment, though, in not being able to capitalize on the sale of any calls on uncovered positions, as I still had my eyes on a few possibilities, but today’s weakness didn’t help.

Today was weak, but for no real reason other than oil continued weak and that there is still that big overhang on Friday.

With no expiring positions it continues to be a good time to be on the beach or relaxing somewhere until summer is officially over and maybe the market finds some reason to respond to something and kick up its volatility just a little.

For now, it’s hard to imagine how it could ever get any lower, but there hasn’t been very much to excite markets or traders.

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Daily Market Update – August 31, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update – August 31, 2016 (7:30 AM)


Yesterday was a return to the recent kind of normal we had come to expect.

Stocks traded in a very narrow range all through the day as most eyes are now looking toward Friday morning.

That’s when the Employment Situation report is released and we may get a better idea of when the FOMC may be increasing interest rates.

The Boston and Chicago Federal Reserve Presidents spoke in China yesterday and both seemed to believe that an interest rate hike was near, but they had very differing views of the economy.

The Chicago Federal Reserve President said that he believed there was evidence of the US economy slowing down, but that there would be an interest rate hike, anyway.

The Boston Federal Reserve Federal Reserve President believed that the economy was strengthening and meeting the FOMC’s targets.

So, the question is whether its September or December.

What is forgotten is that a number of months ago the FOMC said that it wasn’t tied by any particular scheduled meeting to make such an announcement.

Still, the next question is how the market would react to September, December or anything in between.

Friday may give some clue.

With a new position opened yesterday, I don’t expect to be doing very much else for the rest of the week.

With no expiring positions it continues to be a good time to be on the beach or relaxing somewhere until summer is officially over and maybe the market finds some reason to respond to something and kick up its volatility just a little.

For now, it’s hard to imagine how it could ever get any lower, but there hasn’t been very much to excite markets or traders.

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Daily Market Update – August 30, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update – August 30, 2016 (Close)


Yesterday was a nice surprise.

I don’t really understand its basis, as the conventional wisdom was that positive consumer economic news was of the kind that didn’t give reason to suspect that interest rates would go higher in September.

While that was happening, what did make sense was that oil had a sharp decline, stocks went higher.

That hasn’t really been the case all through 2016, but yesterday made sense, while 2016 hasn’t.

This morning there appeared to be no follow through to yesterday’s strength and you would expect that to continue being the case, at least until Friday morning.

That’s when the Employment Situation Report is released and a really strong number could mean an interest rate increase as early as September.

At the moment, it feels as if that were to be the case, the market might react negatively, as it appears that most everyone has emotionally accepted a December increase, but not any sooner.

For my part, I think that if there are strong numbers on Friday, traders will quickly get over any disappointment and go on toward a strong buying spree.

Then, heading into the end of the year, it will either be disappointment that the economy wasn’t strong enough to support a second rate hike or disappointment that it did.

So, I would love to see a little disappointment now and the rebound after, just to have a chance to lighten up on some positions and move into more cash as the year comes to its end.

2016 has been a good year and I wouldn’t mind freezing it in time by securing some of the profits, while still trying to milk as many option premiums and dividends out from the portfolio.

Today was a day mostly spent frozen in time as the market moved very little in a narrow range.

Still, there was an opportunity to spend some money as investors punished again on an earnings miss.

Hopefully, time will heal that wound and by then I can have the premium, the dividend and some capital gains to go along with all of those other ex-dividend positions this week.

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Daily Market Update – August 30, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update – August 30, 2016 (7:30 AM)


Yesterday was a nice surprise.

I don’t really understand its basis, as the conventional wisdom was that positive consumer economic news was of the kind that didn’t give reason to suspect that interest rates would go higher in September.

While that was happening, what did make sense was that oil had a sharp decline, stocks went higher.

That hasn’t really been the case all through 2016, but yesterday made sense, while 2016 hasn’t.

This morning there appears to be no follow through to yesterday’s strength and you would expect that to continue being the case, at least until Friday morning.

That’s when the Employment Situation Report is released and a really strong number could mean an interest rate increase as early as September.

At the moment, it feels as if that were to be the case, the market might react negatively, as it appears that most everyone has emotionally accepted a December increase, but not any sooner.

For my part, I think that if there are strong numbers on Friday, traders will quickly get over any disappointment and go on toward a strong buying spree.

Then, heading into the end of the year, it will either be disappointment that the economy wasn’t strong enough to support a second rate hike or disappointment that it did.

So, I would love to see a little disappointment now and the rebound after, just to have a chance to lighten up on some positions and move into more cash as the year comes to its end.

2016 has been a good year and I wouldn’t mind freezing it in time by securing some of the profits, while still trying to milk as many option premiums and dividends out from the portfolio.

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Daily Market Update – August 29, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update – August 29, 2016 (Close)


It;s the final week of summer and the confusion about interest rates has now been all cleared up.

That is to say that there should be no confusion about the continuing confusion over the timing of those rate increases and their number during the remainder of 2016.

So that leaves this week’s Employment Situation Report and not much else

That is, unless oil and stocks re-establish their strange relationship, which they seem to have done over the past week or two.

That didn’t seem to be the case this morning as the futures were evolving, but this is likely to be a very quiet week on volume traded and some things may get exaggerated on the light volume.

But as the day started out it became clear that oil and stocks would go their own ways, as oil went lower.

The confusion, however, continued, as there was an indication of increasing consumer participation, but that was interpreted as not leading to an earlier interest rate hike than a single one in December.

In other words, good news was good news, but not for any logical reason.

With a little bit of cash to spend, I wouldn’t mind opening some new positions for the week, but would really love to have a repeat of last week.

Last week there were 2 rollovers and the sale of calls on two uncovered positions, in addition to having opened  a new position.

What was missing last week were any ex-dividend positions.

This week already has 4 ex-dividend positions so there is already some income accounted for, but it would be nice to add to those and especially to put more of those uncovered positions to work.

Last week’s single new position came on the last day of trading for the week, which is something that I don’t often do.

This week there is some considerable uncertainty with Friday’s data release, but I would probably execute any new position trades prior to then, especially if there’s a dividend capture in the equation, as well.

Otherwise, it may be a return to the quiet weeks that have been the hallmark of this summer.

This may, again, just be a good week to hang out at the beach.


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Daily Market Update – August 29, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update – August 29, 2016 (7:30 AM)


It;s the final week of summer and the confusion about interest rates has now been all cleared up.

That is to say that there should be no confusion about the continuing confusion over the timing of those rate increases and their number during the remainder of 2016.

So that leaves this week’s Employment Situation Report and not much else.

That is, unless oil and stocks re-establish their strange relationship, which they seem to have done over the past week or two.

That doesn’t seem to be the case this morning as the futures are evolving, but this is likely to be a very quiet week on volume traded and some things may get exaggerated on the light volume.

With a little bit of cash to spend, I wouldn’t mind opening some new positions for the week, but would really love to have a repeat of last week.

Last week there were 2 rollovers and the sale of calls on two uncovered positions, in addition to having opened  a new position.

What was missing last week were any ex-dividend positions.

This week already has 4 ex-dividend positions so there is already some income accounted for, but it would be nice to add to those and especially to put more of those uncovered positions to work.

Last week’s single new position came on the last day of trading for the week, which is something that I don’t often do.

This week there is some considerable uncertainty with Friday’s data release, but I would probably execute any new position trades prior to then, especially if there’s a dividend capture in the equation, as well.

Otherwise, it may be a return to the quiet weeks that have been the hallmark of this summer.

This may, again, just be a good week to hang out at the beach.


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Dashboard – August 29 – September 2, 2016

 

 

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:   Oil and the Employment Situation Report should be the stories for the week, with interest rates maybe taking a break until the latter is released on Friday

TUESDAY:   After an unexpectedly strong day yesterday, it looks as if the futures are back on track for summer doldrums, although Friday’s Employment Situation Report still beckons

WEDNESDAY: It looks as if it might continue to be quiet today as most are awaiting Friday’s Employment Situation Report and debating September versus December, forgetting that the FOMC has said that an off cycle announcement is a possibility.

THURSDAY:  Yesterday seemed to follow oil lower, but we are still in a tight range and that appears to be continuing in the morning’s futures as we all await tomorrow’s Employment Situation report

FRIDAY:.  


 

 



 

                                                                                                                                           

Today's TradesCash-o-Meter

 

 

 





 “SNEAK PEEK AT NEXT WEEK” APPEARS ON FRIDAYS

Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Summary

  

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Weekend Update – August 28, 2016

I’m not entirely certain I understood what happened on Friday.

While it’s easy to understand the “one – two” punch, such as memorialized in Tennessee Ernie Ford’s song “Sixteen Tons,” it’s less easy to understand what has happened when a gift is so suddenly snatched away.

After not having attended the previous year’s Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank hosted soiree in Jackson Hole, this year Janet Yellen was there.

She was scheduled to speak on Friday morning and the market seemed to be biding its time all through the week hoping that Friday would bring some ultimate clarity.

Most expected that she would strike a more hawkish tone, but would do so in a way as to offer some comfort, rather than to instill fear, but instead of demonstrating that anticipation by buying stocks earlier in the week, traders needed the news and not the rumor.

The week was shaping up like another in a string of weeks with little to no net movement. Despite the usual series of economic reports and despite having gone through another earnings season, there was little to send markets anywhere.

Most recently, the only thing that has had any kind of an impact has been the return of the association between oil prices and the stock market and we all know that the current association can’t be one that’s sustainable.

So we waited for Friday morning.

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Week in Review – August 22 – 26, 2016

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

 

August 22 – 26, 2016

 

 

 

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
1  /  1 2 2 0   /   0 0  /   0 0 0

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

August 22 – 26, 2016

This wasn’t exactly another in a series of flat weeks, but it was somewhat of a disappointment.

As far as the market goes, that is.

I was personally pretty happy, though.

For starters, there was actually a new purchase for the week, even as it came in its final hours.

That new purchase was 2.0% higher on the week and beat the unadjusted S&P 500 by 0.6% and the unadjusted S&P 500 by 2.2%

The unadjusted S&P 500 was 0.6% lower on the week and the adjusted S&P 500 was 0.1% lower.

Still it was a good week.

But that’s only because existing positions didn’t lose as much as the S&P 500.

They still lost value, though.

But, as is usually the case, in the longer term, your portfolio serves you better by its ability to outperform during declines.

What was good was that there were 2 rollovers and 2 positions had new calls written on them, while some others are now within striking distance of becoming contributing members once again to my coffers.

There were no ex-dividend positions, but that changes next week.

Since there were no new closed positions for the week, the tally remains the same. Those positions closed in 2016 are still 6.8% higher, while the comparable performance for the S&P 500 during the same holding periods has been 1.8% higher. That represents a 279% difference in return on closed positions. Once again,  I’d be much more impressed if there were far more of those closed positions to point toward. With such few closed positions for the year, the differential could just as easily have been in the other direction and of a similar magnitude, yet also signifying little.

The market was really all over the place on Friday as the festivities at Jackson Hole came to their end.

What looked like it was going to be the gain to deliver the week from a loss turned out to be a loss that just compounded the mild losses from earlier in the week.

I was still pretty happy about things.

I had the surprising opportunity to trade far more than I thought would be the case.

Some rollovers, some new short positions and even dipping into cash a little bit to open a new position, as well.

It was no accident that the new position is paying a nice dividend in a week or so, though.

I do want those dividends these days as volatility is really drying up the premiums.

As I look at my expiration dates on outstanding short positions, I can’t even begin to recognize myself, as there are so many being written a month, two months or even longer out, instead of the weekly calls that i had really grown to cherish.

With still some cash to invest, I don’t mind the prospect of doing so next week.

With no expiring positions, I would like to have some opportunity to generate some more income, although there is some comfort knowing that there are a number of ex-dividend positions next week and for the remainder of September.

Following Friday’s words from Janet Yellen, Stanley Fischer and the GDP release, it’s hard to really know where the economy is and what the FOMC will be looking at, as far as its time table for an interest rate increase.

From the market’s reaction today, it’s clear that there are multiple sides to the story, multiple interpretations and multiple reactions.

 

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):

New Positions Opened:  GME

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:   none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  MRO (9/26)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: GDX (10/21)

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: INTC (11/2016), MS (11/2016)

Put contracts expired: MRO

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  none

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions   none

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: ANF (8/31 $0.20), BAC (8/31 $0.05), HAL (9/2 $0.18), KSS (9/2 $0.52)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)

* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.

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Daily Market Update – August 26, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update – August 26, 2016 (7:30 AM)


The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: none

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:   none

The following are ex-dividend next week:   ANF (8/31 $0.20), BAC (8/31 $0.05), HAL (9/2 $0.18), KSS (9/2 $0.52)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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