Apr232016

Weekend Update – April 24, 2016

Weekend Update

Most of us can recall a time when we were embarrassed, unless you need for denial is a stronger than your memory.

It’s probably much worse when there are a lot of people around as witnesses.

It may be even worse if your antics are under embargo, finally being released at 2 PM, say on a Wednesday, and then really called into question the following day with the planned release of the GDP.

There’s nothing like being under the spotlight, especially when purposefully bringing attention to yourself and then somehow messing up.

I imagine, that even as poised and calm as she appears as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, a young Janet Yellen may have been as easily subject to embarrassment as a child as any of us.

Obviously, I also imagine that the hairdo hasn’t changed over the years.

Of course, it could be really helpful to know what the actual GDP statistic will be and having your performance altered to meet the demands of reality.

This coming week has an FOMC Statement release which is followed barely 20 hours later by news of the GDP for the first quarter of 2016.

As the FOMC meeting gets underway on Tuesday, there is no doubt awareness of the consensus calling for lackluster GDP growth and the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s own decreased estimate just a few weeks ago.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha

 

Jan232016

Weekend Update – January 24, 2016

Weekend Update

With the early part of the Republican primaries having focused on one candidate’s hair, it reminded me of that old complaint that people sometimes made that their hair had a mind of its own.

For better or worse the political hair jokes have pretty much finally run their course as the days tick down to a more substantive measure of a candidate’s character and positions on more weighty matters.

While it was nice seeing some gains for the week and finally having some reason to not curse 2016, there’s no mistaking the reality that the stock market hasn’t had much of a mind of its own after the first 14 trading days of the new year.

Bad hair days would have been a lot easier to take than the bad market days that have characterized much of the past  6 weeks.

The combination of China and the price of oil have led the market down and up on a daily basis and sometimes made it do flips during the course of a single trading day.

With the price of oil having climbed about 23% during the week from its multi-year lows, the market did what it hadn’t been able to do in 2016 and actually put together back to back daily gains. Maybe it was entirely coincidental that the 48 hours that saw the resurgence in the price of crude oil were the same 48 hours that saw the market string consecutive gains, but if so, that coincidence is inescapable.

While that’s encouraging there’s not too much reason to believe that the spike in the price of oil was anything more than brave investors believing that oil was in a severely over-sold position and that its recent descent had been too fast and too deep.

That pretty much describes the stock market, as well, but what you haven’t seen in 2016 is the presence of those brave souls rushing in to pick up shares in the same belief.

Of the many “factoids” that were spun this week was that neither the DJIA nor the NASDAQ 100 had even a single stock that had been higher in 2016. That may have changed by Friday’s closing bell, but then the factoid would be far less fun to share.

Instead, oil has taken the fun out of things and has dictated the direction for stocks and the behavior of investors. If anything, stocks have been a trailing indicator instead of one that discounts the future as conventional wisdom still credits it for doing, despite having put that quality on hiatus for years.

That was back when the stock market actually did have a mind of its own. Now it’s more likely to hear the familiar refrain that many of us probably heard growing up as we discovered the concept of peer pressure.

“So, if your best friend is going to jump out of the window, is that what you’re going to do, too?”

With earnings not doing much yet to give buyers a reason to come out from hiding, the coming week has two very important upcoming events, but it’s really anyone’s guess how investors could react to the forthcoming news.

There is an FOMC announcement scheduled for Wednesday, assuming that the nation’s capital is able to dig out from under the blizzard’s drifts and then the week ends with a GDP release.

With a sudden shift in the belief that the economy was heading in one and only one direction following the FOMC’s decision to increase interest rates, uncertainty is again in the air.

What next week’s events may indicate is whether we are back to the bad news is bad news or the bad news is good news mindset.

It’s hard to even make a guess as to what the FOMC might say next week.

“My bad” may be an appropriate start with the economy not seeming to be showing any real signs of going anywhere. With corporate revenues and unadulterated earnings not being terribly impressive, the oil dividend still not materializing and retail sales weak, the suggestion by Blackrock’s (BLK) Larry Fink last week that there could be layoffs ahead would seem to be the kind of bad news that would be overwhelmingly greeted for what it would assuredly represent.

When the FOMC raised interest rates the market had finally come around to believing that a rise in rates was good news, as it had to reflect an improving economic situation. If the next realization is that the improving situation would last for only a month, you might think the reception would be less than effusive.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in the Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or “PEE” categories.

Last week was the first week since 2008 or 2009 that I made no trades at all and had no ex-dividend positions. No new positions were opened, nor were any call or put rollovers executed.

Other than a few ex-dividend positions this week, I’m not certain that it will be any different from last week. I haven’t opened very many new positions of late, having to go back nearly 2 months for a week with more than a single new position having been opened.

Unlike much of the past 6 years when market pullbacks just seemed like good times to get good stocks at better prices, the past few months have been offering good prices that just kept getting better and better.

If you had been a buyer, those better and better prices were only seen that way by the next series of prospective buyers, who themselves probably came to bemoan how less they could have paid if only they waited another day or two. 

The gains of the final two days of last week make me want to continue the passivity. Anyone having chased any of those precious few days higher lately has ended up as disappointed as those believing they had picked up a bargain.

At some point it will pay to chase stocks higher and at some point it will pay to run after value.

I’m just not convinced that two days of gains are enough to  signal that value is evaporating.

The biggest interests that I have for the week are both earnings related trades. Both Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB) report earnings this week.

If you’re looking for a stock in bear market correction over the past 6 months, you don’t have to go much further then Apple (AAPL). Along with some of his other holdings, Apple has punished Carl Icahn in the same manner as has been occurring to mere mortals.

Of course, that 21% decline is far better than the 27% decline fro just a few days ago before Apple joined the rest of the market in rally mode.

Interestingly, the option market doesn’t appear to be pricing in very much uncertainty with earnings upcoming this week, with an implied move of only 6.2%

Since a 1% ROI can only be achieved at a strike level that’s within that range, I wouldn’t be very excited in the sale of out of the money puts prior to earnings. The risk – reward proposition just isn’t compelling enough for me. However, if Apple does drop significantly after earnings then there may be reason to consider the sale of puts.

There is some support at $90 and then a few additional support levels down to $84, but then it does get precarious all the way down to $75.

Apple hasn’t been on everyone’s lips for quite a while and we may not get to find out just how little it has also been on people’s wrists. Regardless, if the support levels between $84 and $90 are tested after earnings the put premiums should still remain fairly high. If trying this strategy and then faced with possible assignment of shares, an eye has to be kept on the announcement of the ex-dividend date, which could be as early as the following week.

While Apple is almost 20% lower over the past 6 months, Facebook has been virtually unchanged, although it was almost 30% higher over the past year.

It;s implied move is 6.8% next week, but the risk – reward is somewhat better than with Apple, if considering the sale of puts prior to earnings, as a 1% ROI for the sale of a weekly option could be obtained outside of the range defined by the option market. As with Apple, however, the slide could be more precarious as the support levels reflect some quick and sharp gains over the past 2 years.

For those that have been pushing a short strategy for GameStop (GME), and it has long been one of the most heavily of shorted stocks for quite some time, the company has consistently befuddled those who have had very logical reasons for why GameStop was going to fall off the face of the earth.

Lately, though, they’ve had reason to smile as shares are 45% lower, although on a more positive note for others, it’s only trailing the S&P 500 by 2% in 2016. They’ve had some reasons to smile in the past, as well, as the most recent plunge mirrors one from 2 years ago.

As with Apple and Facebook, perhaps the way to think about any dalliance at this moment, as the trend is lower and as volatility is higher, is through the sale of put options and perhaps considering a longer time outlook.

A 4 week contract, for example, at a strike level 4.6% below this past Friday’s close, could still offer a 3% ROI. If going that route, it would be helpful to have strategies at hand to potentially deal with an ex-dividend date in the March 2016 cycle and earnings in the April 2016 cycle.

One of the companies that I own that is going ex-dividend this week is Fastenal (FAST). I’ve long liked this company, although I’m not enamored with my last purchase, which I still own and was purchased a year ago. As often as is the case, I consider adding shares of Fastenal right before the ex-dividend date and this week is no different.

What is different is its price and with a 2 day market rally that helped it successfully test its lows, I would be interested in considering adding an additional position.

With only monthly options available, Fastenal is among the earliest of earnings reporters each quarter, so there is some time until the next challenge. Fastenal does, however, occasionally pre-announce or alter its guidance shortly before earnings, so surprises do happen, which is one of the reasons I’m still holding shares after a full year has passed.

In the past 6 months Fastenal has started very closely tracking the performance of Home Depot (HD). While generally Fastenal has lagged, in the past 2 months it has out-performed Home Depot, which was one of a handful of meaningfully winning stocks in 2015.

Finally, Morgan Stanley (MS) is also ex-dividend this week.

Along with the rest of the financials, Morgan Stanley’s share price shows the disappointment over the concern that those interest rate hikes over the rest of the year that had been expected may never see the light of day.

This week’s FOMC and GDP news can be another blow to the hopes of banks, but if I was intent upon looking for a bargain this week among many depressed stocks, I may as well get the relationship started with a dividend and a company that I can at least identify the factors that may make it move higher or lower.

Not everything should be about oil and China.

 

Traditional Stocks: none

Momentum Stocks:  GameStop

Double-Dip Dividend: Fastenal (1/27 $0.30), Morgan Stanley ($0.15)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings:  Apple (1/26 PM), Facebook (1/27 PM)

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. The above selections may become actionable – most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts – in adjustment to and consideration of market movements. The overriding objective is to create a healthy income stream for the week, with reduction of trading risk.

 

Jan232016

Weekend Update – January 24, 2016

Weekend Update

With the early part of the Republican primaries having focused on one candidate’s hair, it reminded me of that old complaint that people sometimes made that their hair had a mind of its own.

For better or worse the political hair jokes have pretty much finally run their course as the days tick down to a more substantive measure of a candidate’s character and positions on more weighty matters.

While it was nice seeing some gains for the week and finally having some reason to not curse 2016, there’s no mistaking the reality that the stock market hasn’t had much of a mind of its own after the first 14 trading days of the new year.

Bad hair days would have been a lot easier to take than the bad market days that have characterized much of the past  6 weeks.

The combination of China and the price of oil have led the market down and up on a daily basis and sometimes made it do flips during the course of a single trading day.

With the price of oil having climbed about 23% during the week from its multi-year lows, the market did what it hadn’t been able to do in 2016 and actually put together back to back daily gains. Maybe it was entirely coincidental that the 48 hours that saw the resurgence in the price of crude oil were the same 48 hours that saw the market string consecutive gains, but if so, that coincidence is inescapable.

While that’s encouraging there’s not too much reason to believe that the spike in the price of oil was anything more than brave investors believing that oil was in a severely over-sold position and that its recent descent had been too fast and too deep.

That pretty much describes the stock market, as well, but what you haven’t seen in 2016 is the presence of those brave souls rushing in to pick up shares in the same belief.

Of the many “factoids” that were spun this week was that neither the DJIA nor the NASDAQ 100 had even a single stock that had been higher in 2016. That may have changed by Friday’s closing bell, but then the factoid would be far less fun to share.

Instead, oil has taken the fun out of things and has dictated the direction for stocks and the behavior of investors. If anything, stocks have been a trailing indicator instead of one that discounts the future as conventional wisdom still credits it for doing, despite having put that quality on hiatus for years.

That was back when the stock market actually did have a mind of its own. Now it’s more likely to hear the familiar refrain that many of us probably heard growing up as we discovered the concept of peer pressure.

“So, if your best friend is going to jump out of the window, is that what you’re going to do, too?”

With earnings not doing much yet to give buyers a reason to come out from hiding, the coming week has two very important upcoming events, but it’s really anyone’s guess how investors could react to the forthcoming news.

There is an FOMC announcement scheduled for Wednesday, assuming that the nation’s capital is able to dig out from under the blizzard’s drifts and then the week ends with a GDP release.

With a sudden shift in the belief that the economy was heading in one and only one direction following the FOMC’s decision to increase interest rates, uncertainty is again in the air.

What next week’s events may indicate is whether we are back to the bad news is bad news or the bad news is good news mindset.

It’s hard to even make a guess as to what the FOMC might say next week.

“My bad” may be an appropriate start with the economy not seeming to be showing any real signs of going anywhere. With corporate revenues and unadulterated earnings not being terribly impressive, the oil dividend still not materializing and retail sales weak, the suggestion by Blackrock’s (BLK) Larry Fink last week that there could be layoffs ahead would seem to be the kind of bad news that would be overwhelmingly greeted for what it would assuredly represent.

When the FOMC raised interest rates the market had finally come around to believing that a rise in rates was good news, as it had to reflect an improving economic situation. If the next realization is that the improving situation would last for only a month, you might think the reception would be less than effusive.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in the Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or “PEE” categories.

Last week was the first week since 2008 or 2009 that I made no trades at all and had no ex-dividend positions. No new positions were opened, nor were any call or put rollovers executed.

Other than a few ex-dividend positions this week, I’m not certain that it will be any different from last week. I haven’t opened very many new positions of late, having to go back nearly 2 months for a week with more than a single new position having been opened.

Unlike much of the past 6 years when market pullbacks just seemed like good times to get good stocks at better prices, the past few months have been offering good prices that just kept getting better and better.

If you had been a buyer, those better and better prices were only seen that way by the next series of prospective buyers, who themselves probably came to bemoan how less they could have paid if only they waited another day or two. 

The gains of the final two days of last week make me want to continue the passivity. Anyone having chased any of those precious few days higher lately has ended up as disappointed as those believing they had picked up a bargain.

At some point it will pay to chase stocks higher and at some point it will pay to run after value.

I’m just not convinced that two days of gains are enough to  signal that value is evaporating.

The biggest interests that I have for the week are both earnings related trades. Both Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB) report earnings this week.

If you’re looking for a stock in bear market correction over the past 6 months, you don’t have to go much further then Apple (AAPL). Along with some of his other holdings, Apple has punished Carl Icahn in the same manner as has been occurring to mere mortals.

Of course, that 21% decline is far better than the 27% decline fro just a few days ago before Apple joined the rest of the market in rally mode.

Interestingly, the option market doesn’t appear to be pricing in very much uncertainty with earnings upcoming this week, with an implied move of only 6.2%

Since a 1% ROI can only be achieved at a strike level that’s within that range, I wouldn’t be very excited in the sale of out of the money puts prior to earnings. The risk – reward proposition just isn’t compelling enough for me. However, if Apple does drop significantly after earnings then there may be reason to consider the sale of puts.

There is some support at $90 and then a few additional support levels down to $84, but then it does get precarious all the way down to $75.

Apple hasn’t been on everyone’s lips for quite a while and we may not get to find out just how little it has also been on people’s wrists. Regardless, if the support levels between $84 and $90 are tested after earnings the put premiums should still remain fairly high. If trying this strategy and then faced with possible assignment of shares, an eye has to be kept on the announcement of the ex-dividend date, which could be as early as the following week.

While Apple is almost 20% lower over the past 6 months, Facebook has been virtually unchanged, although it was almost 30% higher over the past year.

It;s implied move is 6.8% next week, but the risk – reward is somewhat better than with Apple, if considering the sale of puts prior to earnings, as a 1% ROI for the sale of a weekly option could be obtained outside of the range defined by the option market. As with Apple, however, the slide could be more precarious as the support levels reflect some quick and sharp gains over the past 2 years.

For those that have been pushing a short strategy for GameStop (GME), and it has long been one of the most heavily of shorted stocks for quite some time, the company has consistently befuddled those who have had very logical reasons for why GameStop was going to fall off the face of the earth.

Lately, though, they’ve had reason to smile as shares are 45% lower, although on a more positive note for others, it’s only trailing the S&P 500 by 2% in 2016. They’ve had some reasons to smile in the past, as well, as the most recent plunge mirrors one from 2 years ago.

As with Apple and Facebook, perhaps the way to think about any dalliance at this moment, as the trend is lower and as volatility is higher, is through the sale of put options and perhaps considering a longer time outlook.

A 4 week contract, for example, at a strike level 4.6% below this past Friday’s close, could still offer a 3% ROI. If going that route, it would be helpful to have strategies at hand to potentially deal with an ex-dividend date in the March 2016 cycle and earnings in the April 2016 cycle.

One of the companies that I own that is going ex-dividend this week is Fastenal (FAST). I’ve long liked this company, although I’m not enamored with my last purchase, which I still own and was purchased a year ago. As often as is the case, I consider adding shares of Fastenal right before the ex-dividend date and this week is no different.

What is different is its price and with a 2 day market rally that helped it successfully test its lows, I would be interested in considering adding an additional position.

With only monthly options available, Fastenal is among the earliest of earnings reporters each quarter, so there is some time until the next challenge. Fastenal does, however, occasionally pre-announce or alter its guidance shortly before earnings, so surprises do happen, which is one of the reasons I’m still holding shares after a full year has passed.

In the past 6 months Fastenal has started very closely tracking the performance of Home Depot (HD). While generally Fastenal has lagged, in the past 2 months it has out-performed Home Depot, which was one of a handful of meaningfully winning stocks in 2015.

Finally, Morgan Stanley (MS) is also ex-dividend this week.

Along with the rest of the financials, Morgan Stanley’s share price shows the disappointment over the concern that those interest rate hikes over the rest of the year that had been expected may never see the light of day.

This week’s FOMC and GDP news can be another blow to the hopes of banks, but if I was intent upon looking for a bargain this week among many depressed stocks, I may as well get the relationship started with a dividend and a company that I can at least identify the factors that may make it move higher or lower.

Not everything should be about oil and China.

 

Traditional Stocks: none

Momentum Stocks:  GameStop

Double-Dip Dividend: Fastenal (1/27 $0.30), Morgan Stanley ($0.15)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings:  Apple (1/26 PM), Facebook (1/27 PM)

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. The above selections may become actionable – most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts – in adjustment to and consideration of market movements. The overriding objective is to create a healthy income stream for the week, with reduction of trading risk.

 

Jan12016

Weekend Update – January 3, 3016

Weekend Update

The "What If" game is about as fruitless as it gets, but is also as much a part of human nature as just about anything else.

How else could I explain having played that game at a high school reunion?

That may explain the consistent popularity of that simple question as a genre on so many people’s must read lists as the New Year begins.

Historical events lead themselves so beautifully to the "What If" question because the cascading of events can be so far reaching, especially in an interconnected world.

Even before that interconnection became so established it didn’t take too much imagination to envision far reaching outcomes that would have been so wildly different around the world even a century or more later.

Imagine if the Union had decided to cede Fort Sumpter and simply allowed the South to go its merry way. Would an abridged United States have been any where near the force it has been for the past 100 years? What would that have meant for Europe, the Soviet Union, Israel and every other corner of the world?

Second guessing things can never change the past, but it may provide some clues for how to approach the future, if only the future could be as predictable as the past.

Looking back at 2015 there are lots of "what if" questions that could be asked as we digest the fact that it was the market’s worst performance since 2008.

In that year the S&P 500 was down about 37%, while in 2015 it was only down 0.7%. That gives some sense of what kind of a ride we’ve been on for the past 7 years, if the worst of those years was only 0.7% lower.

But most everyone knows that the 0.7% figure is fairly illusory.

For me the "what if" game starts with what if Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT) and a handful of others had only performed as well as the averages.

Of course, even that "what if" exercise would continue to perpetuate some of the skew seen in 2015, as the averages were only as high as they were due to the significant out-performance of a handful of key constituent components of the index. Imagining what if those large winners had only gone down 0.7% for the year would still result in an index that wouldn’t really reflect just how bad the underlying market was in 2015.

While some motivated individual could do those calculations for the S&P 500, which is a bit more complex, due to its market capitalization calculation, it’s a much easier exercise for the DJIA.

Just imagine multiplying the 10 points gained by Microsoft , the 30 pre-split points gained by Nike (NKE), the 17 points by UnitedHealth Group (UNH), the 26 points by McDonalds (MCD) or the 29 points by Home Depot (HD) and suddenly the DJIA which had been down 2.2% for 2015, would have been another 761 points lower or an additional 4.5% decline.

Add another 15 points from Boeing (BA) and another 10 from Disney (DIS) and we’re starting to inch closer and closer to what could have really been a year long correction.

Beyond those names the pickings were fairly slim from among the 30 comprising that index. The S&P 500 wasn’t much better and the NASDAQ 100, up for the year, was certainly able to boast only due to the performances of Amazon, Netflix (NFLX), Alphabet and Facebook (FB).

Now, also imagine what if historically high levels of corporate stock buybacks hadn’t artificially painted a better picture of per share earnings.

That’s not to say that the past year could have only been much worse, but it could also have been much better.

Of course you could also begin to imagine what if the market had actually accepted lower energy and commodity prices as a good thing?

What if investors had actually viewed the prospects of a gradual increase in interest rates as also being a good thing, as it would be reflective of an improving, yet non-frothy, economy?

And finally, for me at least, What if the FOMC hadn’t toyed with our fragile emotions and labile intellect all through the year?

Flat line years such as 2015 and 2011 don’t come very often, but when they do, most dispense with the "what if" questions and instead focus on past history which suggests a good year to follow.

But the "what if" game can also be prospective in nature, though in the coming year we should most likely ask similar questions, just with a slight variation.

What if energy prices move higher and sooner than expected?

What if the economy expands faster than we expected?

What if money is running dry to keep the buyback frenzy alive?

Or, what if corporate earnings actually reflect greater consumer participation?

You may as well simply ask what if rational thought were to return to markets?

But it’s probably best not to ask questions when you may not be prepared to hear the answer.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in the Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or "PEE" categories.

For those, myself included, who have been expecting some kind of a resurgence in energy prices and were disbelieving when some were calling for even further drops only to see those calls come true, it’s not really clear what the market’s reaction might be if that rebound did occur.

While the market frequently followed oil lower and then occasionally rebounded when oil did so, it’s hard to envision the market responding favorably in the face of sustained oil price stability or strength.

I’ve given up the idea that the resurgence would begin any day now and instead am more willing to put that misguided faith into the health of financial sector stocks.

Unless the FOMC is going to toy with us further or the economy isn’t going to show the kind of strength that warranted an interest rate increase or warrants future increases, financials should fare well going forward.

This week I’m considering MetLife (MET), Morgan Stanley and American Express (AXP), all well off from their 2015 highs.

MetLife, down 12% during 2015 is actually the best performer of that small group. As with Morgan Stanley, almost the entirety of the year’s loss has come in the latter half of the year when the S&P 500 was performing no worse than it had during the first 6 months of the year.

Both Morgan Stanley and MetLife have large enough option premiums to consider the sale of the nearest out of the money call contracts in an attempt to secure some share appreciation in exchange for a somewhat lo0wer option premium.

In both cases, I think the timing is good for trying to get the best of both worlds, although Morgan Stanley will be among the relatively early earnings reports in just a few weeks and still hasn’t recovered from its last quarter’s poorly received results, so it would help to be prepared to manage the position if still held going into earnings in 3 weeks.

By contrast, American Express reports on that same day, but all of 2015 was an abysmal one for the company once the world learned that its relationship with Costco (COST) was far more important than anyone had believed. The impending loss of Costco as a branded partner in the coming 3 months has weighed heavily on American Express, which is ex-dividend this week.

I would believe that most of that loss in share has already been discounted and that disappointments aren’t going to be too likely, particularly if the consumer is truly making something of a comeback.

There has actually been far less press given to retail results this past holiday season than for any that I can remember in the recent and not so recent past.

Most national retailers tend to pull rabbits out of their hats after preparing us for a disappointing holiday season, with the exception of Best Buy (BBY), which traditionally falls during the final week of the year on perpetually disappointing numbers.

Best Buy has already fallen significantly in th e past 3 months, but over the years it has generally been fairly predictable in its ability to bounce back after sharp declines, whether precipitous or death by a thousand cuts.

To my untrained eye it appears that Best Buy is building some support at the $30 level and doesn’t report full earnings for another 2 months. Perhaps it’s its reputation preceding it at this time of the year, but Best Buy’s current option premium is larger than is generally found and I might consider purchasing shares and selling out of the money calls in the anticipation of some price appreciation.

Under Armour (UA) is in a strange place, as it is currently in one of its most sustained downward trends in at least 5 years.

While Nike, its arch competitor, had a stellar year in 2015, up until a fateful downtrend that began in early October, Under Armour was significantly out-performing Nike, even while the latter was some 35% above the S&P 500’s performance.

That same untrained eye sees some leveling off in the past few weeks and despite still having a fairly low beta reflecting a longer period of observation than the past 2 months, the option premium is continuing to reflect uncertainty.

With perhaps some possibility that cold weather may finally be coming to areas where it belongs this time of the year, it may not be too late for Under Armour to play a game of catch up, which is just about the only athletic pursuit that I still consider.

Finally, Pfizer (PFE) has been somewhat mired since announcing a planned merger, buyout, inversion or whatever you like to have it considered. The initially buoyed price has fallen back, but as with Dow Chemical (DOW) which has also fallen back after a similar merger announcement move higher, it has returned to the pre-announcement level.

I view that as indicating that there’s limited downside in the event of some bad news related to the proposed merger, but as with Dow Chemical, Best Buy and Under Armour, the near term option premium continues to reflect perceived near term risk.

Whatever Pfizer;’s merger related risk may be, I don’t believe it will be a near term risk. From the perspective of a call option seller that kind of perception in the face of no tangible news can be a great gift that keeps giving.

Traditional Stocks: MetLife. Morgan Stanley, Pfizer

Momentum Stocks: Best Buy, Under Armour

Double-Dip Dividend: American Express (1/6 $0.29)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: none

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. The above selections may become actionable – most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts – in adjustment to and consideration of market movements. The overriding objective is to create a healthy income stream for the week, with reduction of trading risk.

Mar212015

Weekend Update – March 22, 2015

Weekend Update

The past week has to be one to make most people pause and try to understand the basis for what we just experienced.

In a week otherwise devoid of any meaningful news there was a singular event in the middle of the week and then a little bit of follow-up to help clarify that event.

That event was the release of this month’s FOMC Statement and the subsequent clarifying event was the press conference held by its Chair, Janet Yellen.

In its aftermath, I am more confused than ever.

Not so much about where interest rates are headed, nor when, but more about the thought processes that propel markets when expectations are so clearly defined and what our continuing expectations should be.

Most everyone who follows markets knows that the great debate of late has not been whether the FOMC was going to begin the process of raising interest rates, but when they were going to begin that process. Somehow, we believed that the answer to that question was going to come when we learned whether the word “patience” would continue to characterize the FOMC’s timetable with regard to its effort to “normalize the stance of monetary policy.”

Most had taken positions that the first rate increase would come either as early as this June or perhaps as late as September. The continuing use of the word “patience” was perceived as a sign that interest rate increases wouldn’t occur until sometime after June 2015.

So you have to excuse some confusion when the market reversed course by more than 300 points as it learned that the word “patience” was eliminated, but also received news that the FOMC didn’t foresee an interest rate increase before their next meeting in April 2015.

April?

That could mean that an increase by the May meeting was still on the table and the last time I looked, May came before June, especially if you believe a more hawkish approach is warranted.

Presumably, it was the fear of interest rate increases coming as early as June that was a source for recent market weakness.

As I parsed the words I couldn’t understand the way in which the news was initially embraced. While I expected that regardless of the wording outcome the market would find reason to move forward, I certainly didn’t expect the reaction that ensued, especially since the signal was so mixed and really offered nothing to get excited about, nor to fear.

No rate increase likely in April? That’s the best the FOMC could do?

But in a world where even the slightest of interest rate increases is feared, despite the past evidence suggesting that it should be embraced, the very thought of an increase possibly coming before June should have sent buyers heading for the exits.

Yet it was more than good enough, at least for a couple of hours, and actually represented the first in 7 trading sessions where the market reversed course intra-day, having had triple digit moves in opposite directions each and every one of those days.

Now clearly that has to inspire confidence for whatever is to come next.

It’s a good thing that I don’t believe very much in chart analysis, because it would otherwise be very tempting to notice that the previous 7 trading sessions shows a clear pattern of lower highs and higher lows when looking at the net change and an even more compelling series of higher highs and higher lows when looking at the DJIA closing levels.

Yet, at the same time, it has been nearly 4 weeks ever since the DJIA has been able to string together as little as 2 consecutive days of gains.

Perhaps not to coincidentally the last time the market was able to do that was on the occasion of Janet Yellen’s two day mandated congressional testimony during which time she re-iterated a dovish position regarding the initiation of interest rate increases. But barely 2 days later suspicion of her intentions set in as the Vice-Chairman of the FOMC, Stanley Fischer struck a more hawkish tone that just a week later seemed to be validated by the Employment Situation Report.

Despite the fact that there has been no other corroborating evidence to drive the data that the FOMC insists that it values, the market lost its forward momentum from February until Janet Yellen once again took center stage.

Why people just didn’t believe her all along is a mystery, just as it is a mystery that they again chose to believe her.

How long will the trust in her comforting words last this time?

Perhaps Friday’s GDP release, coming on the same day as a scheduled speech by Stanley Fischer will give us some idea of the staying power of the dove when faced with a circling hawk.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or
“PEE” categories.

It was neither a good week to be DuPont (NYSE:DD) nor eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) as both received analyst downgrades and saw their shares fall significantly when compared to the S&P 500 over the previous 7 sessions.

DuPont’s downgrade came amid worries of problems in its agricultural and chemical segments, along with concerns about the kind of currency headwinds that we’re likely to be hearing much more about in the coming weeks as the next earnings season gets ready to begin.

While those are all important issues, certainly important enough to see DuPont’s shares fall nearly 9% relative to the S&P 500 in the past week, there was lots of activist related news that may be setting the stage for a more contentious kind of fight than Nelson Peltz usually gets himself into. However, it is that activist position that the analyst recognized as a risk to his overall negative outlook as Peltz took to the media last week to be both more accommodating in his requests to DuPont, but also to voice his frustrations.

In the meantime the recent drop in share price is similar to other such drops seen in the past year that have been at levels representing higher lows and that have set the stage for climbs to higher highs.

While Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW) may be suffering from some of the same issues as DuPont and has the added liability of oil interests in Kuwait, it is at least seemingly at peace with its own activist investors, or at the very least the relations are not overtly adverse at the moment.

Dow Chemical has been very much tied to energy prices these past few months even as its CEO Andrew Liveris has clearly stated that on a net basis the decrease in energy prices is beneficial to Dow Chemical, as it pays more for energy input than it depends on revenue from energy outputs.

Shares are ex-dividend this week and are attractively priced, although as long as energy is under pressure and as long as Liveris’ contention goes ignored, the shares will be under pressure. I currently own shares and Dow Chemical was for a long time a staple in my portfolio, both as a long term holding and as a frequent trading vehicle. At the current price I think a new position could be used as either a longer term holding or a serial trade.

eBay has been absent from my portfolio for a couple of months as I’ve grown too uneasy with it flirting near the $60 level to consider re-purchasing shares. Even the $57.50 level puts me at unease, but a recent downgrade calling into question the value of its PayPal unit in light of increasing competition, most recently from Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) was welcome and did bring shares closer to the upper level at which I had some comfort.

Shares recovered nicely from the initial reaction to the downgrade, but still trailed the S&P 500 by 5% over the past 7 trading sessions.

In the past I have very much liked owning eBay when it was mired in a tight range, yet still delivered appealing option premiums due to the occasional earnings related surprises. The story changed once activism entered the picture and shares started moving beyond the 2 year price range in the belief that PayPal had great value beyond what was already reflected in eBay’s price.

With each passing day, however, the luster of PayPal may be diminishing, even as it still remains an extremely valuable brand and service.

As it sits at the upper end of where I would consider taking a position, I would be very interested in either adding shares and selling calls or selling puts on any further drop in price. If selling puts this is one position that I wouldn’t mind taking assignment on in the event of an adverse price move, but would still look at the possibility of simply rolling over those puts to forward weeks.

AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) is increasingly becoming an interesting company. While it certainly has some challenges as it’s chief revenue generating drug goes off patent next year, it has certainly been actively pursuing other lucrative areas, including management of Hepatitis C and cancer therapy, with its planned purchase of Pharmacyclics (NASDAQ:PCYC).

While shares have recovered somewhat from its recent low following an analyst downgrade, they are still nearly 8% lower YTD, but the company is certainly not standing still. In addition to upside potential, the shares offer attractive option premiums and an upcoming dividend that’s well ahead of that offered by its one time parent.

I’m not much of a video gamer even though I can get easily get sucked in by useless activities of a repetitive nature. My guess is that a combination of lack of skill, lack of attention span and allegiance to pinball have kept me indifferent to much of the last 25 years of home entertainment.

This week, however, GameStop (NYSE:GME) and Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) have my attention.

I was actually happy to see my shares of GameStop get assigned this past week ahead of earnings this week. The timing was good as its generous dividend was captured without having to think about the risk of its upcoming earnings.

GameStop is a company that many have written off for years, pointing toward its paleolithic business model, the challenges of brick and mortar as well as streaming competition and the always large short interest looming over shares.

But somehow it continues to confound everyone.

With shares about 10% higher in March the option market is implying a price move of 7.8% upon earnings release. Meanwhile a 1% ROI may be able to be obtained even if shares fall almost 10% following the news. As with eBay, GameStop is a company that I wouldn’t mind owning if puts were at risk of being assigned. However, I’d be much more willing to sell puts if there was some price weakness heading into earnings. Otherwise, I would wait until after earnings and again consider the sale of puts in the event of a large price drop.

The last time I purchased Activision was after its own large price drop following earnings this past February when the company announced record earnings but provided weak forward guidance.

Shares, however, recovered quickly as Activision announced a large share buyback and increased dividend. Since then the shares have been trading in a fairly tight range and they are ex-dividend this week.

That dividend, however, is an annual one and on that basis is paltry. However, if shares end up being a short term holding the dividend yield can be very attractive, especially taken together with the option premiums available when selling calls.

Finally, LuLuLemon (NASDAQ:LULU) reports earnings this week and appears to be back in favor with shoppers as the company appears to be sufficiently distanced from its founder. Time may have been the best of all remedies to their particular problem as shares have shown great recovery.

The option market is implying an earnings related move of 8% and a 1% ROI may be able to be obtained when selling puts at a strike level 10.1% below Friday’s closing price. In the past, LuLuLemon has had some very significant earnings moves, with 15-20% moves not being out of the norm.

However, unlike a number of other stocks mentioned this week, LuLuLemon had nicely out-performed the S&P 500 over the past 7 trading sessions. For that reason I would be inclined to wait until after earnings are released and would consider either a sale of puts or a buy/write in the event of a large price drop.

Traditional Stocks: AbbVie, DuPont, eBay

Momentum Stocks: none

Double Dip Dividend: Activision (3/26), Dow Chemical (3/27)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: GameStop (3/26 PM), LuLuLemon (3/26 AM)

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. The above selections may become actionable, most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts, in adjustment to and consideration of market movements. The overriding objective is to create a healthy income stream for the week with reduction of trading risk.