Daily Market Update – August 29, 2016



Daily Market Update – August 29, 2016 (7:30 AM)

It;s the final week of summer and the confusion about interest rates has now been all cleared up.

That is to say that there should be no confusion about the continuing confusion over the timing of those rate increases and their number during the remainder of 2016.

So that leaves this week’s Employment Situation Report and not much else.

That is, unless oil and stocks re-establish their strange relationship, which they seem to have done over the past week or two.

That doesn’t seem to be the case this morning as the futures are evolving, but this is likely to be a very quiet week on volume traded and some things may get exaggerated on the light volume.

With a little bit of cash to spend, I wouldn’t mind opening some new positions for the week, but would really love to have a repeat of last week.

Last week there were 2 rollovers and the sale of calls on two uncovered positions, in addition to having opened  a new position.

What was missing last week were any ex-dividend positions.

This week already has 4 ex-dividend positions so there is already some income accounted for, but it would be nice to add to those and especially to put more of those uncovered positions to work.

Last week’s single new position came on the last day of trading for the week, which is something that I don’t often do.

This week there is some considerable uncertainty with Friday’s data release, but I would probably execute any new position trades prior to then, especially if there’s a dividend capture in the equation, as well.

Otherwise, it may be a return to the quiet weeks that have been the hallmark of this summer.

This may, again, just be a good week to hang out at the beach.


Dashboard – August 29 – September 2, 2016







MONDAY:   Oil and the Employment Situation Report should be the stories for the week, with interest rates maybe taking a break until the latter is released on Friday

TUESDAY:   After an unexpectedly strong day yesterday, it looks as if the futures are back on track for summer doldrums, although Friday’s Employment Situation Report still beckons

WEDNESDAY: It looks as if it might continue to be quiet today as most are awaiting Friday’s Employment Situation Report and debating September versus December, forgetting that the FOMC has said that an off cycle announcement is a possibility.

THURSDAY:  Yesterday seemed to follow oil lower, but we are still in a tight range and that appears to be continuing in the morning’s futures as we all await tomorrow’s Employment Situation report






Today's TradesCash-o-Meter





Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution








Weekly Summary


Weekend Update – August 28, 2016

I’m not entirely certain I understood what happened on Friday.

While it’s easy to understand the “one – two” punch, such as memorialized in Tennessee Ernie Ford’s song “Sixteen Tons,” it’s less easy to understand what has happened when a gift is so suddenly snatched away.

After not having attended the previous year’s Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank hosted soiree in Jackson Hole, this year Janet Yellen was there.

She was scheduled to speak on Friday morning and the market seemed to be biding its time all through the week hoping that Friday would bring some ultimate clarity.

Most expected that she would strike a more hawkish tone, but would do so in a way as to offer some comfort, rather than to instill fear, but instead of demonstrating that anticipation by buying stocks earlier in the week, traders needed the news and not the rumor.

The week was shaping up like another in a string of weeks with little to no net movement. Despite the usual series of economic reports and despite having gone through another earnings season, there was little to send markets anywhere.

Most recently, the only thing that has had any kind of an impact has been the return of the association between oil prices and the stock market and we all know that the current association can’t be one that’s sustainable.

So we waited for Friday morning.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha




Week in Review – August 22 – 26, 2016

Option to Profit

Week in Review



August 22 – 26, 2016





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Weekly Up to Date Performance

August 22 – 26, 2016

This wasn’t exactly another in a series of flat weeks, but it was somewhat of a disappointment.

As far as the market goes, that is.

I was personally pretty happy, though.

For starters, there was actually a new purchase for the week, even as it came in its final hours.

That new purchase was 2.0% higher on the week and beat the unadjusted S&P 500 by 0.6% and the unadjusted S&P 500 by 2.2%

The unadjusted S&P 500 was 0.6% lower on the week and the adjusted S&P 500 was 0.1% lower.

Still it was a good week.

But that’s only because existing positions didn’t lose as much as the S&P 500.

They still lost value, though.

But, as is usually the case, in the longer term, your portfolio serves you better by its ability to outperform during declines.

What was good was that there were 2 rollovers and 2 positions had new calls written on them, while some others are now within striking distance of becoming contributing members once again to my coffers.

There were no ex-dividend positions, but that changes next week.

Since there were no new closed positions for the week, the tally remains the same. Those positions closed in 2016 are still 6.8% higher, while the comparable performance for the S&P 500 during the same holding periods has been 1.8% higher. That represents a 279% difference in return on closed positions. Once again,  I’d be much more impressed if there were far more of those closed positions to point toward. With such few closed positions for the year, the differential could just as easily have been in the other direction and of a similar magnitude, yet also signifying little.

The market was really all over the place on Friday as the festivities at Jackson Hole came to their end.

What looked like it was going to be the gain to deliver the week from a loss turned out to be a loss that just compounded the mild losses from earlier in the week.

I was still pretty happy about things.

I had the surprising opportunity to trade far more than I thought would be the case.

Some rollovers, some new short positions and even dipping into cash a little bit to open a new position, as well.

It was no accident that the new position is paying a nice dividend in a week or so, though.

I do want those dividends these days as volatility is really drying up the premiums.

As I look at my expiration dates on outstanding short positions, I can’t even begin to recognize myself, as there are so many being written a month, two months or even longer out, instead of the weekly calls that i had really grown to cherish.

With still some cash to invest, I don’t mind the prospect of doing so next week.

With no expiring positions, I would like to have some opportunity to generate some more income, although there is some comfort knowing that there are a number of ex-dividend positions next week and for the remainder of September.

Following Friday’s words from Janet Yellen, Stanley Fischer and the GDP release, it’s hard to really know where the economy is and what the FOMC will be looking at, as far as its time table for an interest rate increase.

From the market’s reaction today, it’s clear that there are multiple sides to the story, multiple interpretations and multiple reactions.



This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):

New Positions Opened:  GME

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:   none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  MRO (9/26)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: GDX (10/21)

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: INTC (11/2016), MS (11/2016)

Put contracts expired: MRO

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  none

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions   none

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: ANF (8/31 $0.20), BAC (8/31 $0.05), HAL (9/2 $0.18), KSS (9/2 $0.52)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)

* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.

Daily Market Update – August 26, 2016



Daily Market Update – August 26, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: none

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:   none

The following are ex-dividend next week:   ANF (8/31 $0.20), BAC (8/31 $0.05), HAL (9/2 $0.18), KSS (9/2 $0.52)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT