Week In Review – August 15 – 19, 2016

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

August 15 – 19, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
0  /  0 0 0 0   /   1 1  /   0 0 2

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

August 15 – 19, 2016

This was yet another in a series of flat weeks, but it was another in which my complaints may fall on deaf ears.

This was another week of no new purchases and so again there wasn’t too much to think or talk about.

The S&P 500 was down 0.3% for the week and other than a little bit of action following the release of FOMC minutes, there was nothing of any interest for the rest of the week.

Still it was a good week.

There were 2 ex-dividend positions and the expiration of those puts that had been serially rolled over, after having gone out on a little bit of a limb by having rolled them over the previous week even though they were going to expire..

On top of that, even as the market was flat, existing positions again beat the S&P 500, this time by an additional 0.4%. even though that meant that the only finished 0.1% higher for the week.

With the expiration of those puts that added one additional position to the paltry list of closed lots for 2016. Those positions closed in 2016 are still 6.8% higher, while the comparable performance for the S&P 500 during the same holding periods has been 1.8% higher. That represents a 279% difference in return on closed positions. Once again,  I’d be much more impressed if there were far more of those closed positions to point toward. With such few closed positions for the year, the differential could just as easily have been in the other direction and of a similar magnitude, yet also signifying little.

With this week’s small advance. it does at least add to the nice performance thus far in 2016.

That’s better than the alternative, although this past week wasn’t one for generating very much in the way of income.

It wasn’t really a week for generating much of anything, including anything of interest.

While there may be some more signs that the FOMC is going to be able to find reason to increase interest rates, no one is really getting excited or getting frightened
.

For the most part earnings season is now over and for the most part is was fairly disappointing.

What may have been most disappointing is that no one seemed to offer anything positive for the rest of 2016.

On the one hand that could set us up for some positive surprises three months from now, but for now it didn’t really offer any kind of catalyst to move higher.

Still, we’re just a hair from those all time closing highs, so something must be going right.

With the expiration of those puts I do have some additional cash that I wouldn’t mind putting to use, although it’s not likely to get any easier next week, just as the past couple of weeks have been difficult to really identify anything with a reward worth the risk.

With no ex-dividend positions next week and the likelihood of the assignment of a short call position, it would be really nice to find something to invest in, but that likely share assignment makes me think that together with the expiration of puts this week, it might e a good time to collect some cash.



This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  none

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:   none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: none

Put contracts expired: MRO

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  none

Calls Expired:  FAST

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions   MRO (8/15 $0.05), HFC (8/19 $0.33)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: none

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Daily Market Update – August 19, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update – August 19, 2016 (7:30 AM)


The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: none

Expirations:   FAST, MRO (Puts)

The following were ex-dividend this week:   MRO )8/15 $0.05), HFC (8/19 $0.33)

The following are ex-dividend next week:   None

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update – August 18, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update – August 18, 2016 (Close)


The futures were again pointing to a flat open this morning.

I think I said that yesterday, as well, and could easily have said the same thing just about every morning for the past 7 weeks.

Still, if you look at the net result of the past 7 weeks it’s fairly considerable.

For anyone who remembers, that’s the way it was back in 2007, as well.

There was nothing of great significance going on, only a slow move higher and higher until reaching a top in October 2007.

I’m not even thinking of drawing a parallel and couldn’t even begin to imagine what could be the equivalent catalyst to make things crumble.

Instead, I just want to have an idea of what of insignificance is right around the corner and to which the market will react in one way or another.

Other than interest rates and the price of oil, the world, at least from the view of economists is pretty serene right now.

That’s not to say that it’s all good, just that it’s balmy and quiet out there.

This looks like another week of no trades, but at least there may be an opportunity to get some principal back with the expiration of some short puts on Marathon Oil.

I would still like to keep that position going, though, but if it does finally expire because I’m unable to wring another weekly 1% ROI or more out of it, I would welcome the opportunity to do it again and again.

Otherwise, it may just be more sitting around and wondering alongside everyone else just what is going on.

I was hoping, as the day began yesterday, that a couple of positions were in line to have some calls sold upon them, but they moved a bit out of contention yesterday and the situation remained unchanged today, as did the market for all intents and purposes.

We’ll see what tomorrow brings, but even as the week is still shaping up to be a good one on the basis of net asset value, I do want to generate more income than has been the case this week and do want more and more of those positions being put to work.

There are some more big earnings due this week, but once this week is over, there shouldn’t be too much to shake markets anymore until the next go around, at least from an earnings perspective.

When it will all be over, I think that this earnings season will be judged as being alright, but that doesn’t take into account the less than optimistic guidance just about everyone has served up.

In my mind, that sets us up for some strong moves in a few months as investors are surprised when companies report better than expected numbers, as there has to be something that is making FOMC members believe that an interest rate hike is going to be warranted before 2016 comes to a conclusion.


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Daily Market Update – August 18, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update – August 18, 2016 (7:30 AM)


The futures were again pointing to a flat open this morning.

I think I said that yesterday, as well, and could easily have said the same thing just about every morning for the past 7 weeks.

Still, if you look at the net result of the past 7 weeks it’s fairly considerable.

For anyone who remembers, that’s the way it was back in 2007, as well.

There was nothing of great significance going on, only a slow move higher and higher until reaching a top in October 2007.

I’m not even thinking of drawing a parallel and couldn’t even begin to imagine what could be the equivalent catalyst to make things crumble.

Instead, I just want to have an idea of what of insignificance is right around the corner and to which the market will react in one way or another.

Other than interest rates and the price of oil, the world, at least from the view of economists is pretty serene right now.

That’s not to say that it’s all good, just that it’s balmy and quiet out there.

This looks like another week of no trades, but at least there may be an opportunity to get some principal back with the expiration of some short puts on Marathon Oil.

I would still like to keep that position going, though, but if it does finally expire because I’m unable to wring another weekly 1% ROI or more out of it, I would welcome the opportunity to do it again and again.

Otherwise, it may just be more sitting around and wondering alongside everyone else just what is going on.

I was hoping, as the day began yesterday, that a couple of positions were in line to have some calls sold upon them, but they moved a bit out of contention yesterday.

We’ll see what today brings, but even as the week is still shaping up to be a good one on the basis of net asset value, I do want to generate more income than has been the case this week and do want more and more of those positions being put to work.

There are some more big earnings due this week, but once this week is over, there shouldn’t be too much to shake markets anymore until the next go around, at least from an earnings perspective.

When it will all be over, I think that this earnings season will be judged as being alright, but that doesn’t take into account the less than optimistic guidance just about everyone has served up.

In my mind, that sets us up for some strong moves in a few months as investors are surprised when companies report better than expected numbers, as there has to be something that is making FOMC members believe that an interest rate hike is going to be warranted before 2016 comes to a conclusion.


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Daily Market Update – August 17, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update – August 17, 2016 (Close)

The futures were again pointing to a flat open this morning.

That’s something that we should be getting used to, perhaps being a sign that the market is getting jittery about what is coming next.

The biggest reason to be worried is that maybe nothing is coming next.

If the economy continues as it has been going and there is no real evidence of the kind of growth that would justify even the smallest of interest rate increases, it’s going to be pretty hard to keep interest in buying sustained.

After hearing 2 of the Federal Reserve’s Presidents speak yesterday, ahead of today’s FOMC meeting minutes release, you would think that they’re seeing some kind of data or pattern that would justify a rate increase, but the market is getting far too many mixed signals.

Still, even with yesterday’s minor decline, it continues to be record high after record high.

We are even now at the point that this is only the 4th time in history that the market has gone up more than another 2% after surpassing its previous record closing high.

So this isn’t necessarily a unique period in time, but it is a pretty rare one.

At some point traders will wake up.

What we don’t know is whether they wake up to a realization that nothing has been warranted on the basis of fundamentals or whether they realized that as old as this bull market may now be, we’re still at the beginning.

It’s hard to believe that the latter will be the case, but as long as it’s surprises that you’re going to dismiss, you may as well dismiss everything that has already gotten us to where we are and whose reality has been validated.

As we were to come upon mid-week and the FOMC minutes were to be released, we did find reason for the market to wander from its flatness of the morning.

There were also some more earnings reports due and those were reason for an early market reaction, although yesterday’s news from Home Depot was met with a very muted response.

Today, the response was less muted, but it was also shorter.

That’s because the market liked what it saw in those FOMC minutes, even as they said nothing.

My expectations for any action today were small, but there were a couple of potential trades to open short call positions on currently uncovered positions.

That alone would have given me a reason to think that this week was worthwhile, but I’ll still be asking that question as tomorrow comes around.

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