Monthly Archives: August 2016

Daily Market Update – August 25, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The only things moving right now are energy and commodities, as stocks are taking a break.

Today, energy and commodities took a break right alongside stocks.

For the most part earnings haven’t really mattered in the broader picture as most everyone is now just waiting for the reality of an interest rate hike.

You would think that when that action finally comes that there would be a realization that the economy and the stocks that represent that economy would be worth an investment or two.

What could be unfortunate is if everyone also comes to the realization that the increasing price of oil is putting a damper on the party that wants to explode.

Otherwise, there really isn’t much to think about for the rest of 2016.

Of course, the totally unexpected can always happen.

A Trump victory, some unpredictable world events, natural calamities and on and on.

Hopefully, the world will be sedate and kind to everyone, including investors.

For the rest of this week we will be listening to whatever is said in public at Jackson Hole and to what is overheard.

Today, there was nothing to take anyone by surprise during the first day of that meeting and the market traded in a really narrow range.

The curiosity will all be over whether that interest rate increase could possibly come as early as next month.

Janet Yellen will speak on Friday and she may send markets to some new highs if she gives reason to not fear the interest rate increase and whatever other ones may await in 2017.

Lately, she hasn’t been much of a market mover, but should could be this time around, especially if she makes some suggestion that she isn’t interested in continuing in the position under whoever becomes our next President.

If she skips that part of the conversation and simply speaks up the hawkish stance most everyone is now pushing, the market will probably move higher.

If that’s the case, we are setting ourselves up for a classic “sell on the news,” but the news may still be months away.

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Daily Market Update – August 25, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The only things moving right now are energy and commodities, as stocks are taking a break.

For the most part earnings haven’t really mattered in the broader picture as most everyone is now just waiting for the reality of an interest rate hike.

You would think that when that action finally comes that there would be a realization that the economy and the stocks that represent that economy would be worth an investment or two.

What could be unfortunate is if everyone also comes to the realization that the increasing price of oil is putting a damper on the party that wants to explode.

Otherwise, there really isn’t much to think about for the rest of 2016.

Of course, the totally unexpected can always happen.

A Trump victory, some unpredictable world events, natural calamities and on and on.

Hopefully, the world will be sedate and kind to everyone, including investors.

For the rest of this week we will be listening to whatever is said in public at Jackson Hole and to what is overheard.

The curiosity will all be over whether that interest rate increase could possibly come as early as next month.

Janet Yellen will speak on Friday and she may send markets to some new highs if she gives reason to not fear the interest rate increase and whatever other ones may await in 2017.

Lately, she hasn’t been much of a market mover, but should could be this time around, especially if she makes some suggestion that she isn’t interested in continuing in the position under whoever becomes our next President.

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Daily Market Update – August 24, 2016 (Close)

As we approach the middle of the week, all eyes are now on the final 2 days of festivities coming from the beauty of Jackson Hole.

I’ve been there twice, coincidentally at this time of the year, but long before I had any interest in the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s party antics.

The likelihood is that Janet Yellen will say something that supports the notion that an interest rate hike is going to soon be obviously warranted.

The market will probably react positively to those kind of words, but then comes the questions as to what’s next.

What has to come next, in order for the market to move higher is that there is obvious evidence of the consumer again becoming involved in growing the economy.

At the same time there can’t be too much acceleration in the price of oil, while the dollar has to remain in its current range or get a little weaker.

Of course, it also wouldn’t hurt if the interest rate increase was small and that there wasn’t going to be much talk about another increase in the near future.

With all the good things possibly needing to happen to keep stocks moving higher, one thing that isn’t going to be need is competition from bonds.

I don’t think that there will be much to do for me this week as the single expiring position has already been rolled over, although some of the positions that I’ve been hoping to sell calls upon are looking more likely, so I would be very happy to pull that trigger.

That’s so even if it means putting them into suspended animation for a few months, as the low volatility doesn’t offer much in the way of premiums unless time is added into the equation in a meaningful way.

If in that process there’s also a dividend or two to be had and maybe some capital gains on the shares, as well, it is a little more palatable stretching things out.

Otherwise, not so much.

What surprised me today, as oil and the markets continued their recent re-discovery of one another, was the opportunity to rollover positions in the Gold Miners ETF following the big fall in gold.

Those positions have been great performers and consistent revenue creators, so I don’t mind seeing the big falls as they make this into a really long term holding that has generated lots of revenue and now will do so for at least one additional month.

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Daily Market Update – August 24, 2016 (7:30 AM)

As we approach the middle of the week, all eyes are now on the final 2 days of festivities coming from the beauty of Jackson Hole.

I’ve been there twice, coincidentally at this time of the year, but long before I had any interest in the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s party antics.

The likelihood is that Janet Yellen will say something that supports the notion that an interest rate hike is going to soon by obviously warranted.

The market will probably react positively to those kind of words, but then comes the questions as to what’s next.

What has to come next, in order for the market to move higher is that there is obvious evidence of the consumer againg becoming involved in growing the economy.

At the same time there can’t be too much acceleration in the price of oil, while the dollar has to remain in its current range or get a little weaker.

Of course, it also wouldn’t hurt if the interest rate increase was small and that there wasn’t going to be much talk about another increase in the near future.

With all the good things possibly needing to happen to keep stocks moving higher, one thing that isn’t going to be need is competition from bonds.

I don’t think that there will be much to do for me this week as the single expiring position has already been rolled over, although some of the positions that I’ve been hoping to sell calls upon are looking more likely, so I would be very happy to pull that trigger.

That’s so even if it means putting them into suspended animation for a few months, as the low volatility doesn’t offer much in the way of premiums unless time is added into the equation in a meaningful way.

If in that process there’s also a dividend or two to be had and maybe some capital gains on the shares, as well, it is a little more palatable stretching things out.

Otherwise, not so much.

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Daily Market Update – August 23, 2016 (Close)

There still isn’t too much on tap for this week as some jurisdictions have already started going back to school and the rest of us are trying to squeeze a last few days out of summer.

The market was higher in the pre-opening following a day yesterday that actually had some volatility, albeit in a pretty tight range.

Today it was just about the same range, but without the volatility, although the market did give up most of its early gain when the final bell tolled.

Yesterday was a great reflection of just how undecided everyone happens to be, as we went up and down all through the day with no real news to account for anything.

It really wasn’t too different today. There was still no commitment from anyone.

While we do have some economic news this week and some more, although relatively unimportant earnings to come, the real news will be made in parsing the words coming from the attendees of the Jackson Hole meeting later in the week.

As the GDP is released on Friday, we will undoubtedly focus on what Janet Yellen says, which is expected to echo what Stanley Fischer said.

That is, we are pretty close to having the conditions to increase interest rates.

Will that be in September is the question for now. A strong GDP might make that the case.

Otherwise, we are quickly approaching the one tear anniversary of the first increase in about 9 years.

I did make one rollover trade yesterday and that leaves nothing else on the table.

No dividend positions, no expiring positions.

Nothing.

I either need to make some trades or have the market move some select stocks higher so that they can start making some money.

I didn’t expect to do very much today, but that has been a recurring theme that I’m not thrilled about these days.

At least there was no disappointment.

Maybe that will come tomorrow.

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