Category Archives: Week in Review

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

MARCH 14 – 18, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
0  /  0	0	1	1   /   0	0   /   0	0	3

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

March 14 – 18,  2016

At least this week it wasn’t all about oil.

For the first time in about 2 months we had a minor diversion from oil, thanks to an FOMC meeting.

There were no new positions opened this week.

Existing positions were able to match the performance of the S&P 500 for the week as it was 1.3% higher, as the market finally undid the losses of the first 6 weeks of 2016.

There was finally another assignment this week to join the solitary other assignment of 2016, marking the slowest start to a year that I can recall since 2008 and certainly the slowest for OTP.

To date, with only 2 assigned positions on the year, they are out-performing the S&P 500 for their holding periods by 3.2%, as the closed positions are 3.1% higher and the S&P 500 for the same periods of time is 3.0% higher.

Still, with such little activity, it does continue to feel good to seeing portfolio values, especially when that performance exceeds the market, as it did again this week and continues to build on its relative out-performance for all of 2016.

The market finished nicely higher for the week, following the trend that began at 2016’s low point on February 11th.

Oil continued higher, but despite some thought that maybe stocks were thinking about going their own way, by the latter part of the week any idea like that was thrown out.

What the week offered wa
s news from the FOMC that interest rates will not likely be increased as often as they may have originally planned.

Even though that reflects poorly on the economy, investors took that as being good news for them.

More cheap money is clearly more important than more economic expansion.

Just as with stocks following oil higher, at some point there has to be a realization that it’s the economy that should really matter and not being able to avoid a 0.25% increase in rates.

But that’s a realization for some other time.

It was nice to have a rollover this week and especially nice to have an assignment.

Although there were 3 ex-dividend positions this week, I still would have liked to have seen some more income opportunities. While Best Buy also had a Special Dividend, in addition to its regular dividend, I don’t really count those as the option strike prices are adjusted lower to account for those special dividends.

I had hoped to be able to sell some calls on uncovered positions, but simply couldn’t get what I thought were fair prices, as volatility started to decline across the board.

Nest week is a trading shortened week as markets will be closed on Friday.

There isn’t too much in the way of economic news next week, although the GDP will be released on Fridays as markets are closed.

Since the FOMC has already guided down on their GDP projection for 2016 there shouldn’t be too many surprises, although we won’t really know until the following Monday rolls along.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  none

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  M (4/1)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO: none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: GM

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:    BBY (3/15 $0.28), BBY (3/15 $0.45 Special Dividend), JOY (3/16 $0.01),  LVS (3/18 $0.72)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  none

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

MARCH 7 – 11, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
1  /  1	1	1	0   /   0	0   /   0	0	6

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

March 7 – 11,  2016

No matter how each week ends, it’s still pretty clear that all that matters was, is and maybe always will be, oil.

Seems like I’ve said that more than just a few times, because I actually said exactly the same thing last week and very similar words in previous weeks.

This past week again saw multiple examples, including multiple examples of intra-day reversals in oil and then the obligatory intra-day reversals in the stock market.

This week did have another rare event, which was the opening of a new position.

That new position was 1.9% higher on the week, finishing 0.8% higher than both the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500, as the latter was still a nice  1.2% higher, continuing a series of nicely performing weeks.

While there was some significant give back in the advance in commodities this week, it continues to be nice seeing portfolio values climb, especially when that performance exceeds the market, as it did again this week and continues to build on its relative out-performance for all of 2016.

Also feeling good was the ability to sell calls on another uncovered position and seeing some more become candidates as there’s lots of catch up going on.

The key is whether that catch up will continue to continue.

While oil continued to be center stage, there really was nothing else of interest going on for the week.

Following some steep climbs higher over the previous 2 weeks, commodities gave quite a bit back this week, but the market’s rally did broaden a little.

Next week comes the potential for some big news as there’s another FOMC Statement release and a Chairman’s press conference to follow.

That combination often has a way of making things pop, but its really uncertain what may be said, just as it’s really uncertain what the reaction could be, because it’s also not clear how we are willing to treat good economic news at the moment.

I think that it should be treated as welcome news, but that doesn’t really matter. The heat of the moment is all that really will matter.

There’s not too much likelihood of any change in interest rates next week, but you never know what minor change in wording can trigger fear or exhilaration.

I was just happy this week to actually make some trades and generate some revenue.

That was in addition to another nice week for ex-dividend positions, which slows down some next week, with only 3 ex-dividend stocks to contribute to the cash accumulation effort.

Next week is also the end of the March 2016 option cycle and there are only 2 positions sets to expire, so it’s not likely to be a very busy trading week.

With having used longer options the past few months the expiring ones are spread out more than before in a hope to buy time for continued price climbs and to get paid a little extra by waiting, in the form of premiums and dividends.

As long as there continues to be some relative out-performance and better yet absolute performance to the upside, I don’t really mind less trading, but I really do like it when positive moves are accompanied by more trading.

By my historical trading, three trades in a week is far from a busy week, but if 2016 is going to be the standard, well, then I’m absolutely exhausted.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  GM

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: GM

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO: IP

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: none

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:    HPE (3/7 $0.06), HPQ (3/7 $0.06), KSS (3/7 $0.50), NEM (3/8 $0.03), GM (3/9 $0.38), M (3/11 $0.36)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  BBY (3/15 $0.28), JOY (3/16 $0.01),  LVS (3/18 $0.72)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

FEBRUARY 29 – MARCH 4, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
0  /  0	1	0	0   /   0	0   /   0	0	7

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

February 29 – March 4,  2016

No matter how each week ends, it’s still pretty clear that all that matters was, is and maybe always will be, oil.

Seems like I’ve said that more than just a few times.

This past week again saw multiple examples, including multiple examples of intra-day reversals in oil and then the obligatory intra-day reversals in the stock market.

Sometimes, though, if only for brief periods of time, it looked as if some disassociations were beginning to happen, but the theme continued.

This week again, those reversals were good, as oil ended the week nearly 10% higher.

< strong>But yet again, there were no new positions opened for the week, as it is far too closely associated with oil and those moves in oil have not been based in anything that anyone can identify as being meaningful.

Still, this was a very good week.

The S&P was 2.6% higher, but the OTP Portfolio outpaced that by 2.4%, owing to the real strength in oil and commodities.

Continuing to watch portfolio value claw back does still feel good, especially when that performance exceeds the market, as it did again this week and for all of 2016.

Also feeling good was the ability to sell calls on another position and seeing some more become candidates as there’s lots of catch up going on.

The key is whether that catch up will continue.

While oil continued to be center stage, Friday’s Employment Situation Report may have given some solace to those afraid of an interest rate increase.

Despite the very strong numbers, the impact of part-time employment on the numbers and the falling average wage made the nearly 250,000 additional jobs not as impressive as it seemed at first blush.

With no reason to sell-off on Friday’s news the S&P 500 was able to end the week with another gain and now only 6.5% below its all time high.

What a difference the past 3 weeks have made, but it’s hard to imagine where the market would be had oil not surprised everyone with such a large net move higher.

As was the case just about a month ago when oil moved about 20% higher in a single week, it isn’t easy to maintain the gaps higher, so it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary to see profit taking come in on the oil side of the equation and subsequently pull stocks lower, too.

Unless of course the oil market continues to ignore fundamentals or the stock market decides to divorce itself from energy prices dominated by increasing delivery of supply.

In addition to having watched portfolio value increase nicely again this week, there was also the matter of having had 7 ex-dividend positions.

With no positions expiring this week and none for next week, I would still like to consider spending some of my limited cash, but having another 6 ex-dividend positions next week gives me some source for income without having to put anything additional at risk.

What next week does have is nothing.

There is really very little economic news in advance of the following week’s FOMC Statement release.

While next week might have been the perfect time to announce an interest rate increase, as there is a Chairman’s press conference, the general belief is that a rate hike is off the table until the June 2016 meeting.

Since so many people believe that to be the case, there has to be some trepidation if the FOMC decides that they’ve seen enough and want to be ahead of the curve and not reactive.

That would also explain the first interest rate increase, which in hindsight may still not look as having been data driven, but with each passing day that feeling may be waning.

While I would like to do something more meaningful than just watching and making an occasional trade, I might still consider trading that for some continued portfolio asset increases next week as we get closer to the FOMC meeting

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  none

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO: CSCO

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: none

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: &nb
sp;  ANF (3/2 $0.20), BAC (3/2 $0.05), COH (3/2 $0.34), HAL (2/29 $0.18), HFC (3/2 $0.33), MOS (3/1 $0.28), WY (3/4 $0.31)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:   HPE (3/7 $0.06), HPQ (3/7 $0.06), KSS (3/7 $0.50), NEM (3/8 $0.03), GM (3/9 $0.38), M (3/11 $0.36)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

FEBRUARY 22 – 26, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
0  /  0	2	0	0   /   0	0   /   0	0	0

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

February 22 – 26,  2016

No matter how each week ends, it’s pretty clear that all that matters was, is and maybe will be, oil.< /strong>

This past week saw multiple examples, including multiple examples of intra-day reversals in oil and then the obligatory intra-day reversals in the stock market.

This week, those reversals were good.

But again, there were no new positions opened for the week, as it continues to be mostly a situation of the market going lower and then stocks attempting to erase some of those losses.

During the week the S&P 500 was 1.6% higher and that was good enough again for me. Watching portfolio value claw back does feel good, especially when that performance exceeds the market, as it did by 0.9%

Also feeling good was the ability to sell calls on a couple of uncovered positions, although some other hoped for trades went unrequited.

This was another week of nothing more than oil, oil and oil.

With some suggestion that the economy may be heating up, maybe more than just rents and health care, has to come the concern that interest rates will be rising soon.

In the past, that has mostly been a concern and received lots of negative reaction, but as the March 2016 FOMC meeting draws more near, we may get to see whether the market has a more forward looking penchant, rather than being so negative about the prospect that would actually reflect an improving economy.

With no new assignments this week, I at least do look forward to 7 ex-dividend positions next week, but would still love to see some chance to open some new positions and put some existing positions to work.

Even as prices do show some ability to climb and volatility does decrease, there is still the chance to secure some better premiums than was the case through almost all of 2015.

Increasingly, I look at using the longer term options and am slowly seeing some light at the end of the tunnel for some positions that had been badly beaten down
, but could end up having been reasonably good performers, even if assigned at their purchase prices.

I’d rather be able to get even more than that when having to hold a position for an unduly long time, but for me, it’s still about beating the index for the same period of holding time.

I hope that the market doesn’t forget to follow oil higher in the event that there is some sustained move in that direction. It would be a real shame to have seen it follow oil lower, only to come to the realization that a move higher has some real negative implications with regard to the expense side of life.

So, I wouldn’t mind making some trades next week, but I also wouldn’t mind more passivity, as long as asset values continue to climb and make up for some lost ground.

I haven’t asked for much lately, so I hope that’s not over-stepping my boundaries.

 

.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  none

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  BBY

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: eBay

Calls Expired:  Ford

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:    none

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:   ANF (3/2 $0.20), BAC (3/2 $0.05), COH (3/2 $0.34), HAL (2/29 $0.18), HFC (3/2 $0.33), MOS (3/1 $0.28), WY (3/4 $0.31)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.