Category Archives: Week in Review

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

APRIL 18 – 22, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
1  /  1	1	1	0   /   0	0   /   1	0	1

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

April 18 – 22, 2016

This was one of the best weeks that I can remember in a long, long time.< /strong>

For the market it was a decent week, but for a change, most everything went well on a personal note.

There was a single new position opened for the week and it out-performed both the adjusted and unnadjusted S&P 500 by 2.1%

That was just pure luck, though.

That position ended the week 2.6% higher, while the S&P 500 was 0.5% higher on the week.

Even better was that existing positions, continuing to find strength in energy, commodities and really all around, ended the week 1.4% higher than the S&P 500.

The only negatives were that there were no assignments and one short position got assigned.

With no assignments, closed positions continue to be 7.8% higher, while the comparable performance for the S&P 500 during the same holding periods has been 2.7% higher. That represents a 189.2% difference in return on closed positions. Unfortunately, though, there are very few closed positions on the year.

I’m not quite certain what the theme was this week.

Sure, there were earnings and sure, oil was higher on the week, but I’m not really certain what made the market do what it did.

Mostly, I find the last two days of the week, when some big names disappointed, to be pretty optimistic.

Up until then, the market had been happy with earnings beating lowered expectations.

But the fact that it could brutally punish some names for not only missing earnings, but continuing to provide lower guidance, yet still close higher, is pretty impressive.

I was just happy to have made a trade and gotten a chance to roll it over, while at the same time being able to sell calls on an uncovered position.

There was only a single ex-dividend position, but all in all, getting some income for the week, while watching asset value continue to climb nicely higher, left me feeling pretty good.

With a little bit of  cash for next week, but less than I thought, as the one possible assignment turned into a rollover, I still am open to the idea of adding some new positions, especially since I have none expiring next week.

While there are 3 ex-dividend positions next week, I’d like to add to the income stream.

Other than earnings next week, which promises to make things busy, maybe an FOMC Statement and the GDP release the following day could shake things up a bit.

I guess that if the FOMC announced a rate hike it would be pretty embarrassing if the GDP was flat, but you never do know.

For now, even as volatility falls, I hope that markets continue this move higher, as the bottom line is really all that matters and I do enjoy watching some recovery in beaten down energy and commodity prices, while it lasts.

I think that those increases can last, I’m just wondering how long the market will follow, but as long as it has already done so, why stop now?

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  M

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: M

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO: WY

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: MAT, MRO

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  STX

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:   FAST (4/22 $0.30)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  F (2/27 $0.15), MS (2/27 $0.15), KMI (2/28 $0.125)

For the coming week the existing positio
ns have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

APRIL 11 – 15, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
0  /  1	1	1	2   /   0	0   /   0	0	0

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

April 11 – 15, 2016

This was just another in a series of weeks that have characterized 2016. Which is exactly what I said last week, maybe even the week before, as well.< /strong>

Once again, there was absolutely nothing of fundamental value to inspire markets in either direction.

Instead, it continues to be all about oil and rumors about oil.

This week the news was that at the end of the week we would see Saudi Arabia and Russia agree to oil production decreases.

We went through that rumor a couple of months ago and when it didn’t materialize, markets gave back all of their gains.

We’ll see what Monday brings as there are already murmurings about Russia’s cooperation, just as the previous agreement was undone by Iran’s unwillingness to participate in basic economic fundamentals.

In the meantime, there was one new positioned opened for the week and it seriously under-performed the unadjusted S&P 500 by 7.3% and the adjusted S&P 500 by 5.6%

It was 5.7% lower, while the unadjusted S&P 500 finished the week % higher and the adjusted S&P 500 ended the week % lower.

At least existing positions offered some comfort as they beat the performance of the S&P 500 for the week finishing 0.9% better than the overall market and for a change wasn’t a hollow victory, as those positions did manage to move 2.5% higher on the week.

There were also two assignments, adding to the paltry few for 2016.

Those positions are 7.8% higher, while the comparable performance for the S&P 500 during the same holding periods has been 2.7% higher. That represents a 189.2% difference in return on closed positions. Unfortunately, though, there are very few closed positions on the year.

This was just another week of the same old stuff, except that for the most part stocks went higher.

It was all about oil, even as earnings started to trickle out.

With banks beginning to report and at least not stinking the place up, there is some hope that the ensuing weeks could yet bring something positive to bear.

With some of the latest economic data that has been coming through, there isn’t too much reason to believe that the consumer has come to life and that we’ll see evidence of that in the past quarter’s earnings, but after a few years of waiting for exactly that to happen, sooner or later it will have to be the case.

That’s just like having been waiting for the past 2 years for oil to start recovering in price.

That “sooner or later” stuff gets old pretty fast, but it’s hard to walk away from that belief.

With one assignment this week, there’s a little more cash to fuel some purchases, but 2016 has just been so slow, that I’m not terribly convinced that I’ll let go of any cash next week.

With no positions up for rollover and only a single ex-dividend position next week, I’d love to have some additional opportunity to generate some cash, but I’ll be waiting along with others to see what happens with the weekend meeting of the big oil producers.

While stocks and oil weren’t in total lock step this week, a big move in oil in either direction could change that very quickly, although I think that the handwriting is finally on the wall for that association to be coming to its rational end.

But here, too, the sooner or later approach has been much more heavily weighted on the “later” part of the equation.

I’m ready for something in the here and now.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  STX (puts)

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO: HPQ

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: STX

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: MAT, MRO

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:   none

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  FAST (4/22 $0.30)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

APRIL 4 – 8, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
0  /  0	0	1	0   /   0	0   /   0	0	3

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

April 4 – 8.March 28 – , 2016

This was just another in a series of weeks that have characterized 2016.

There was absolutely nothing of fundamental value to inspire markets in either direction.

Instead, it continues to be all about oil, with markets also sometimes reacting to occasional remarks from those who have say over where and when interest rates may be heading.

Friday initially looked like it might put some distance between itself and its baseline to start 2016, but the early strong gain disappeared and it was only the final 15 minutes that could bring the market into positive territory.

For the day and for the year.

Although I was willing to open new positions this week, I could find no reason to do so, even after a nice start to the week.

Instead of last week, in which I did the same and just watched, this time the S&P 500 finished 1.2% lower as the previous week finished 1.8% higher.

Existing positions matched the performance of the S&P 500 for the week finishing 0.1% better than the overall market, but again, that’s a hollow victory, as those positions were still 1.1% lower on the week.

For the most part, the Janet Yellen inspired rally of last week held.

Not in terms of points gained this week, but rather in there being no real challenge to the dovish tone that she had expressed.

With the FOMC minutes being released this week and with a few FOMC Governors speaking, it would have been very easy for some competing thoughts about the economy or the timing of interest rates to have reared their heads.

Instead, it was mostly calming words.

What moved the market and as the tally was settled, into negative territory, was again oil.

This week oil had some big moves up and big moves down.

The stock market followed, although its moves weren’t as exaggerated.

There was no point during this week that I felt ready to add new positions. That despite the fact that I was hoping to do so and was willing to part with some of the remaining small cash reserve.

Despite a good start to the week, I didn’t see any reason for confidence and the market’s action was fairly tepid and seemed even more unpredictable than usual.

Having just finished the first quarter, it seems all too neat and clean that the second quarter should begin as if nothing had preceded it.

The market’s decline for the week leaves it right where it started 2016 as we are about to head into a new earnings season next week.

I’m still prepared to add new positions, but I generally am not thrilled about doing so as a new season begins.

I often like to wait to get the financial sector out of the way and see whether it sets a tone, or not.

The over-riding tone, however, for the past year is that earnings season has been one quarter of disappointment after another.

With the big rush of stock buybacks already accomplished, and often at far higher stock prices, it may be interesting to see how comparisons fare, as the artificial boost to the metric that everyone follows, the P/E, can be so easily manipulated.

Next week marks the end of the April 2016 option cycle and for the first time in as long as I can recall, I was about to head into that ending week with nothing to expire.

That is until yesterday’s early rollover of the single position expiring this week.

Back when volatility was low, I hated to see a stock that was rolled over eventually head above its strike price before the close of trading on Friday. That’s because I preferred to get the assignment proceeds and plow the cash into some other income generating position.

But this week, with the volatility still high, at least on that position, I didn’t mind squeezing more return out of it and making it into a serial rollover position.

Otherwise, with only that position set to expire next week, it may be another very quiet week as we await those earnings and any hint that the economy may be doing better than we’ve giving it credit for.

I don’t know if that will be received as good or bad news, but it should be taken with a smile and could give the market reason to move higher.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  none

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: MRO

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO: none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: none

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:    CSCO (4/4 $0.26), GPS (4/4 $0.23), WFM (4/6 $0.135)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  none

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

MARCH 28 – APRIL 1, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
0  /  0	2	1	0   /   0	0   /   0	0	3

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

March 28 – April 1,  2016

This week was one that had very little of fundamental value going for it, until Friday’s Employment Situation Report.

Until that point, it was all Janet Yellen inspired.

Once again, no new positions were opened this week as there really was no reason to believe that anything of substance would occur or have any kind of sustaining impact.

By “sustaining” I mean more than a day or two.

For what was mostly a week of watching, the S&P 500 ended the week 1.8% higher.

Existing positions weren’t able to match the performance of the S&P 500 for the week as they were hobbled by oil reacting to Saudi Arabia’s line in the sand over production cuts.

Still, as energy wavered, the market closed the book on the first quarter of 2016, which was truly a tale of two very different halves and which worked out nicely from a more global strategic perspective.

After coming off a rare week lower since the market turned on February 11th, Janet Yellen gave doves a reason to smile.

Even the more hawkish Federal Reserve Governors couldn’t upset the optimistic tone that had come back to the market as we headed into the Employment Situation Report.

Despite an initial negative reaction to another 200,000+ monthly increase in new jobs, the market quickly reversed itself and closed up nicely higher for the week.

As the first quarter of 2016 came to its end, it’s amazing how it has really been a tale of two halves.

There was the world before February 11th and the world after.

Nothing of any kind of substance has changed, but the world is so very, very different for traders.

For now, though, it does seem that traders are still more likely to look at news the opposite way in which a normal person would interpret the news.

Good is bad and bad is good.

For the most part no news is also good news.

This week at least had some ex-dividend positions and a chance to roll over some uncovered positions, in addition to getting an opportunity
to roll over the single expiring position.

In keeping with the theme of 2016 and the latter part of 2015, where possible, there’s been some reason to use longer term expiration dates.

Sometimes the reason is to accumulate some more dividends and sometimes it’s to take advantage of some volatility and maybe even to capitalize on some gains in the shares themselves.

That was the case this week as the process of gaining cover for uncovered positions is still progressing far too slowly, for my tastes.

It remains, however, a long term outlook and I don’t mind using short term, mid-term and long term approaches all in the name of boosting return and waiting out some of the ups and downs that every market seems to have.

With no assignments this week, I’m still scraping the bottom of the barrel for some cash, but wouldn’t be overly hesitant to borrow from myself, as a form of margin, if anything looks appealing.

At the moment, some positions do look appealing, despite the market’s second half of the first quarter story.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  none

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO: CY, CY

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: none

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:    CY (3/29 $0.11), DOW (3/29 $0.48), EMC (3/30 $0.11)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  CSCO (4/4 $0.26), GPS (4/4 $0.23), WFM (4/6 $0.135)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

MARCH 21 – 25, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
2  /  2	0	1	0   /   0	0   /   0	0	0

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

March 21 – 25,  2016

This was supposed to be a very quiet week as much of the world was getting ready to celebrate Easter.

There was very little on the economic news front and one less trading day, but still, lots can happen. There certainly was a lot that happened, but the impact of events in Europe haven’t translated into markets gone out of control.

Before those events I saw fit to open 2 new positions and it wasn’t the horror in Brussels to blame, but instead the downdraft in oil.

As a result new positions trailed both the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500 by 1.2%. 

Those new positions were 1.9% lower, while the S&P 500 ended the week 0.7% lower.

Existing positions were able to match the performance of the S&P 500 for the week as it was 1.3% higher, as the market finally undid the losses of the first 6 weeks of 2016.

This was thew first week in quite a while that the markets were lower.

Riding on the coattails of oil most all sectors have been moving higher since February 11th, but that came to a halt this week as oil was significantly lower and the market had to also deal with the kind of tragedy that we hope to never have to hear about, much less endure.

With news that more oil rigs were sidelined this week as inventories were rising, you can only imagine that the supply – demand cycle will continue to play out, as at some point the lack of drilling results in relatively lower supply and perhaps oil can find some footing again.

But predicting doesn’t usually work out very well, as anyone who had bet that interest rates would have by now been well on their way toward climbing higher and higher.

What this week did have was a rarity for 2016.

That being the opening of more than one new position.

Fortunately, despite the bottom falling out of the energy sector on Wednesday, there was still an opportunity to roll over that one expiring position and to at least generate a little more premium cash, while the volatility remains high.

What this week also will have, and it is another rarity, is the announcement of what may significant economic news coming on a day that there is no stock trading.

In this case, it’s tomorrow’s GDP, which could hold the keys to whether or not that next interest rate increase might be here before June.

Whatever will be that number, there’s not too much we can do but watch as the futures may react and leave us to wonder what Monday may bring.

Next week isn’t quite as quiet, particularly with a number of Federal reserve Governors hitting the streets to share their opinions, which often seem quite at odds with one another.

Beyond that, we do have another Employment Situation Report to contend with.

And then, there’s also that issue of oil and whether stocks will continue to follow, or perhaps do like they did this week and not be so predictable in their direction nor magnitude.

With some ex-dividend positions next week, but only one expiring position, I wouldn’t mind opening another new position or more, but I’ll be ve
ry curious to see what that GDP number will be like and how the markets may react if the number is surprising in whatever direction it may elect.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  CY, MRO

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  MRO (4/8)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO: none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: none

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:    none

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  CY (3/29 $0.11), DOW (3/29 $0.48), EMC (3/30 $0.11)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.