Category Archives: Week in Review

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

NOVEMBER 2 – 6, 2015

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
1   /   1	0	4	2   /   0	0  /  0	0	2

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

November 2 – 6, 2015

The week started off with lots of promise and ended with a fizzle, but saw the market probably do the right thing heading into the Employment Situation Report on Friday.

There was only 1 new position opened for the week and it surpassed the unadjusted S&P 500 by 0.1% and the adjusted S&P 500 by 1.3% .

That single position was 1.1% higher for the week while the unadjusted S&P 500 was 1.0% higher and the adjusted S&P 500 was 0.2% lower.

That large discrepancy between adjusted and unadjusted performance is related to the timing of the purchase of that single position which happened on Tuesday, rather than on Monday when the market had its large gain.

Once again energy and commodities continued their weakness, despite having dome mid-week strength.

For the year the 70 closed lots in 2015 continue to outperform the market. They are an average of 4.6% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been  1.1% higher. That difference represents a 334.5% performance differential. 

The big news for the week was the Employment Situation Report, but it seems as if the market completely discounted the good news in its early trading for the week and then ended up actually taking it for what it was.

Good news.

This was yet another week of no real news, other than for Friday’s Employment Situation Report. Although there were lots of earnings reports, the reality is that Facebook doesn’t really matter as far as being a barometer of things.

Next week, though, as retailers do begin releasing their earnings, those could very well be the barometer that we and more importantly, the FOMC, have been looking for.

With a very strong gain in employment, well above the threshold that the FOMC has set, some strong retail numbers could finally convince everyone that the time has finally come for that interest rate increase.

If it does finally come in December, the IMF and ECB can’t get too upset with us, as we came close to waiting and holding off until 2016 as could possibly have been the case.

With only a single new position opened this past week and 2 assignments, there will be a little more added to the cash reserve, which is something that I’ve wanted to see for quite some time.

So far, it has worked out well borrowing from myself, in essence the equivalent of having used margin, in order to fuel some new position purchases over the past 2 months.

With those assignments and the rollovers for the week, in addition to the 2 ex-dividend positions, I finished the week reasonably satisfied, although I would have liked it if the week hadn’t gotten off to such a strong start and I could have perhaps added some of those ex-dividend trades.

I was also a little disappointed in not being able to sell any options on uncovered positions as the trades I had put in hoping to get made just wilted away as the week came to its end.

Next week, with cash in hand, I am definitely on the look out for some good reason to spend. With no contracts expiring next week I would like to be able to find a way to generate some cash from the money pile, but again, I’m not prone to being reckless with that money.

My hope is that there is some weakness to begin the week, just as I had hoped would have happened this week.

There are a couple of potential dividend plays next week and I think my focus will continue in that area, especially as volatility has again fallen so low.

Given how well the market seems to have accepted the good employment numbers, I think that it may be in a state of mind to act very rationally if retailers do start reporting good numbers next week. 

A little good news on the retail front could be just the thing to send the market beyond its August highs.

While that’s sad for volatility, it may be just the thing to take us into the holidays.

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  MS

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  BBY (11/27), WMT (12/11)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: F

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: INTC, MS

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: INTC (11/4 $0.24), BP (11/4 $0.60)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:   IP (11/12 $0.49)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, CHK, CLF, COH, CY, FAST, FCX, GDX, GPS, HAL, HPQ, INTC, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS,  MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

October 26 – 30, 2015

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
2   /   3	0	1	1   /   1	0  /  0	0	4

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

October 26 – 30, 2015

This was a week that didn’t know what it really wanted and ended up with no conviction following a strong FOMC related move forward.

There were 3 new positions opened for the week and they surpassed the unadjusted S&P 500 by1.0 % and the adjusted S&P 500 by 0.8%.

Those positions were 1.2% higher for the week while the unadjusted S&P 500 was 0.2% higher and the adjusted S&P 500 was 0.4% higher.

Once again energy and commodities continued their weakness, despite making up some ground on Friday to end the week.

It just wasn’t enough to let existing positions surpass even a mediocre broader market.

For the year the 68 closed lots in 2015 continue to outperform the market. They are an average of 4.6% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been  1.1% higher. That difference represents a 319.3% performance differential. 

The big news for the week was the FOMC Statement release.

Prior to the release and for the two days after the release, the market was basically comatose, although it went for a wild alternating ride in the 20 minutes surrounding the release.

Earnings reports for the week made very little difference.

All of that leads to us next week and wondering what will be there to move markets, particularly since the really important retail sector doesn’t report until the following week.

< span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: medium; line-height: 1.538em;">This past week was a decent one in that there were some good opportunities to open positions and collect some dividends.

It would have been nicer if there were some opportunities to sell calls on existing positions, but at least there were some assignments and a rollover for the week, in addition to those ex-dividend positions.

With some of that money getting put back for recycling, I wouldn’t mind being able to make the same trades as were made this week, taking a look at Morgan Stanley and Seagate Technology once again, just as a few weeks earlier it had been Bank of America and General Electric that were in play for a number of consecutive weeks.

That’s boring, but it can be a really good type of boring.

With the money to spend, I would really like to see the week open on a decline. If it does so, I’d be inclined to add as many new positions as in the past few weeks. Otherwise, I’d be happy to hold onto my money and look for any opportunity to sell calls on those existing, non-performing positions.

Next week may just be one big question mark and unless there’s some big or unexpected news, that may be the theme until the December FOMC meeting.

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  F, MS, STX, (puts)

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: F

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  none

Put contracts expired: STX

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: MS

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: KMI (10/29 $0.51), WY (10/28 $0.31), MS (10/28 $0.15), F (10/28 $0.15)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:   

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, CHK, CLF, COH, CY, FAST, FCX, GDX, GPS, HAL, HPQ, INTC, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS,  MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

October 19 – 23, 2015

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
2   /   3	1	4	3   /   1	0  /  0	0	1

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

October 19 – 23, 2015

The latter part of the week was a perfect storm and in a good way for the market and it had its fourth consecutive gaining week, ever since the turnaround on the day the last Employment Situation Report was released.< /strong>

There were 3 new positions opened for the week, but they lagged both the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500 by 1.0%

Those positions were still 1.1% higher for the week, but just couldn’t keep pace with the S&P 500 which finished 2.1% higher thanks to the tremendous gains on Thursday and Friday.

This week energy and commodities continued their weakness, as did healthcare, but everything else was buoyed the last two days of the week.  Existing positions were flat for the week lagging the overall market, just as in the previous as they were compromised by energy and materials.

For the year the 66 closed lots in 2015 continue to outperform the market. They are an average of 4.8% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been  1.1% higher. That difference represents a 321.9% performance differential. 

Earnings reports started coming this week and they were for the most part pretty uninspiring until the close of trading on Thursday.

On that day the market was already heading toward a 320 point gain as the ECB gave US markets a gift before the open by suggesting that their version of QE was going to continue.

The rally was prolonged with the first real set of good earnings numbers and they came from important players: Google, Microsoft and Amazon, representing 3 very different segments of the consumer discretionary and business worlds.

If they were reporting better revenues and profits how could that not have some meaning for the broader economy?

So stocks surged again, further helped by a rate decrease by the People’s Bank of China in their effort to jump start their economy which was just reported to be struggling along with a GDP growing at just 7%.

Just 7%?

So this was a good week all around.

There were 3 new positions opened and 4 positions were rolled over, in addition to finding some coverage for an uncovered position.

There was also a single ex-dividend position.

Best of all, there was the assignment of 3 positions and the expiration of one short put sale, helping to free up some cash to either sit or be redeployed.

With all of that, however, there are no positions set to expire next week, so the likelihood is that if any new positions are opened with the increased cash position, they will look for either a dividend or a weekly time frame.

My expectation had been that the coming week was likely to show some euphoria as there was little reason to suspect that the FOMC would raise interest rates. Since we are back on a “bad news is good news” mindset, that would likely give reason for more buying.

However, with so much of an advance this week and someone bound to raise the issue of how far off will that rate increase now be once we’ve seen such strong earnings from some key players, I’m not as convinced of next week’s strength, anymore.

With next week still offering so many companies reporting earnings some care has to be taken to not get overly exposed to companies that have that added risk feature. Despite the great earnings reported by Google et al, the earnings season has otherwise not been very encouraging and has offered lots of punishment for those disappointing even by just a little.

With cash available next week, I would again be happy to see some weakness creep back in, at least maybe to start the week.

Friday’s strong close has placed some of the positions that I was eyeing for next week more expensive than I would like, so I may be more passive than  I would prefer to be as the next week gets off to its start.

With volatility suddenly taking a dive and returning close to where it was a month ago some of the easy new position trades and rollovers will likely be on hiatus, but next week may hold some surprises if the FOMC takes note of some evidence of an economy that’s heating up in key sectors and changes the wording of its statement to reflect that observation.

I’ll be tuned in.

 

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  MS, STX, (puts), WMT

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  IP (12/18)

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  INTC (1/16/16)

Put contracts expired: STX

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: BBY ($33.50), MET, MS

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: FAST (10/23 $0.28)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:   KMI (10/29 $0.51), WY (10/28 $0.31)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, CHK, CLF, COH, CY, FAST, FCX, GDX, GPS, HAL, HPQ, INTC, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS,  MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

October 12 – 16, 2015

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
3   /   3	2	0	3   /   0	2  /  0	0	2

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

October 12 – 16, 2015

Following multiple consecutive weeks of indecisive trading, last week was anything but indecisive, but this week we were back again to not knowing what we want.

There were 3 new positions opened for the week and they surpassed the adjusted S&P 500 by 0.5% and the unadjusted and adjusted S&P 500 by 0.6%

Those positions were 1.6% higher for the week while the adjusted S&P 500 finished 1.1% higher and the unadjusted S&P 500 finished 0.9% higher.

This week it was the turn for weakness to re-appear in energy and materials.  Existing positions were lower for the week and this time they lagged the overall market, just as previous weeks they were lead higher by energy and materials.

For the year the 62 closed lots in 2015 continue to outperform the market. They are an average of 4.9% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been  1.1% higher. That difference represents a 339.2% performance differential. 

Earnings reports started coming this week and they were, if nothing, confusing.

The market took some big moves during the week, but for no real reason. What happened was simply a return to much of the summer when there was a back and forth volley between large moves higher and equally, if not larger moves lower.

This week the market ended up with a net result that took the middle ground and at least gave little to lose any stomach lining over, although these days individual shares are prone to erode more lining than ever before.

Actually, the combination of large moves up and large moves lower that leaves you with a net positive can actually be as close to an ideal situation as you can define, because those back and forths drive up volatility supported option premiums while at the same time seeing assets grow, rather than getting eroded.

It was another week that saw more new positions established than had been the case during most of the summer and I’m happy to see that continuing to be the case. Next week it would be easier to continue on that path if the week opens with some significant weakness and closes with strength.

Those are by far the best.

WIth another week having some assignments I’m also happy to see some cash getting put back into the still all too small pile and wouldn’t mind putting the money back to work next week.

A couple of new positions finding cover and a couple of ex-dividend positions for the week generated enough income to keep me pacified over the week, although there were also 2 positions that saw their options expire.

Next week continues earnings and they actually will be much more representative than this week had been, which was predominated by the financials.

I’m definitely open to putting money to work, as next week doesn’t have very many expiring positions and only a single ex-dividend position. The challenge will be trying to discern between value and value traps.

Lately there has been a lot of luck as most of the recent new positions represented real value, but as we still see from day to day, the market is very capable of moving strongly in any direction and without requiring  a reason for doing so.

While I’m willing to spend money next week, that would be much more likely if the market is either flat or lower to start the week. Today’s gain continues the market’s resurgence that started two weeks earlier and had been almost uninterrupted. A little bit of a breather or some movement backward to fill in the ground beneath the more than 6% gain the  past week would be really nice.

 

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  ABBV, ANF, MET

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  GDX ($21 12/15), GDX ($22 1/15/16)

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: ABBV, ANF,  MET

Calls Expired:  EMC, MRO

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: FCX (10/13 $0.05), ABBV (10/13 $0.51)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:   FAST (10/23 $0.28)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, CHK, CLF, COH, CY, FAST, FCX, GDX, GPS, HAL, HPQ, INTC, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS,  MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

October 5 – 9, 2015

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
2   /   2	3	1	4   /   0	0  /  0	0	1

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

October 5 – 9, 2015

Following multiple consecutive weeks of indecisive trading, there was no question what the frame of mind was this week.

It was higher, higher and higher. Even if  a given day didn’t really add much to the indexes, what they didn’t do was go much lower, as has been the case whenever the market was able to put together even just a single good day over the past couple of months.

There were 2 new positions opened for the week and they lagged the unadjusted and adjusted S&P 500 by 1.6%. They did well, but couldn’t keep up with the market, since they were capped by their strike prices in a week that the market just kept moving higher.

Those positions were 1.7% higher for the week while the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500 finished a remarkable 3.2% higher.

Thanks to continuing strength in energy and materials, despite some give back to end the week, existing positions performed well and out-performed an already strong market. They were actually an unusually large 1.2% ahead of the S&P 500 for the week, but as with past weeks they also represent a liability in the event of their weakness.

For the year the 59 closed lots in 2015 continue to outperform the market. They are an average of 4.8% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been  1.1% higher. That difference represents a 350.6% performance differential. 

If you were looking for a theme this week it was easy to find.

It looks as if we’re back to partying over the prospects of a delay in interest rates once again.

That’s a really sudden change from just a couple of weeks ago and is an example of what to do when life gives you lemons.

Maybe it’s not so hard to explain why the sudden re-embrace of what is beginning to sound like a weaker than expected economy, but that could mean having to go through the fear of a rise in interest rates again.

Sooner or later there has to be one, but it just keeps seeming later and later even after it seemed to be right around the corner.

This was a good week from just about every perspective.

There was finally a week that had a meaningful number of assignments and there were no stocks having options expire worthless.

Additionally, there was some opportunity to create new covered positions and to still be able to take some advantage of the mildly elevated volatility. There was even a chance to rollover a position that wasn’t due for a while, as its price just rocks back and forth with the energy complex and with each of those gyrations opportunity presents itself to make some additional return on a fundamentally sound position.

Next week marks the end of the October 2015 option cycle and uncharacteristically, there aren’t many positions set to expire next week.

What there is, is more cash than usual to put back to work, although I would really like to see the market consolidate just a little. It has gone up too much and too fast since the previous Friday, so that should lead people to believe that we’re either at a precipice of a break out higher or a drop back to reality.

That doesn’t really help, though.

Both are plausible, but I don’t think that I want to get overly reckless with the cash that will suddenly be available for re-investment next week.

Earnings will really get off the ground next week as financials begin to report, but as we’ve seen for the last couple of years, that sector can be strong, but nothing has to follow.

The real key will be whether we finally see retail reporting earnings that reflect the fall out from lower energy prices.

If really looking for a reason for markets to go higher, that is the best catalyst that I can think of and is definitely not one to fear, even if leading to increased interest rates.

 

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:   ANF, MET

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  HFC (10/30)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  BAC (12/18), CSCO (11/20), GM (1/15/16)

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: ANF, BAC, GE, MET

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: GPS (10/5 $0.23)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:   FCX (10/13 $0.05)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, CHK, CLF, COH, CY, FAST, FCX, GDX, GPS, HAL, HPQ, INTC, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS,  MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.