Category Archives: Week in Review

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

JANUARY 11 – 15, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
1  /   1	1	0	0   /   0	10   /  1	0	1

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

January 11 – 15,  2016

Last week I said that It doesn’t get much worse than this past week.

Welcome to this week.

While last week was the worst start ever to a year, now it’s just simply the worst 2 week start to any year.

There was again just one new position opened on the week and that was one position too many, even as it looked as if it may have been a good decision for just a few hours, as had been the case last week..

That position ended the week 4.8% lower while the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500 were both 2.2% lower.

The only shred of good news was that as bad as the week was, the existing positions still fared better than the overall market, but that is rarely any real solace.

Maybe the fact that the second week of the year wasn’t as bad as the first week of the year could also be a shred of good news.

Existing positions under-performed the S&P 500 by 0.4% on the week, adding to the disappointment.

Last week they out-performed, but still finished lower.

A loss is still a loss, even if not a loss in relative terms.

There were no assignments on the week. No surprise, there and none yet for 2016.

The loss for this week was less than it could have been, if not for a partial bounce back on Thursday that brought the S&P 500 almost back to a breakeven for the week, if only for day.

Once again, there was absolutely nothing of virtue to report upon for the week. With lots of expiring positions for the week as the January 2016 option cycle came to its end, there was even less to crow about.

With only one new purchase and 1 ex-dividend position, there was no generation of meaningful income, despite getting a brief opportunity to sell some calls on an uncovered position. Any hope of rollovers was dashed early in the week.

Unlike last week when there was some news that could account for market nervousness, this week had no real news other than the continued and accelerating weakness in the price of oil.

The market has completely embraced an irrational response to what should be good news.

Blackrock’s Larry Fink, who is widely agreed to be a pretty smart guy said what we all should know.

He said that the price of oil is being completely driven by over-supply and not being depressed due to diminished demand.

You can understand why markets wouldn’t like decreased demand, but it’s very hard to understand the reaction to stable or growing demand in the face of decreasing energy prices.

Whatever.

It is a big “whatever” though and at some point the market will be returning to a more rational response.

For next week, with no cash being added to the tiny cash reserve pile, I’m not overly enthused about spending any money.

I dipped my toes in each of the past 2 weeks and can better understand why no one has really been rushing in to buy stocks, even as prices seem ridiculously low.

Next week has only one position set to expire and it’s not too likely that anything good will happen in that regard, so it’s looking like another fallow week.

.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  BAC

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  M (3/18)

Put contracts expired: TWTR

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: none

Calls Expired:  BAC, BBY, CSCO, CY, DOW, GDX, GM, HFC, INTC, WY

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:   WFM (1/13 $0.135)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: none

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

JANUARY 4 – 8, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
1  /   1	0	0	0   /   0	4   /  0	0	2

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

January 4 – 8, 2016

It doesn’t get much worse than this past week.

In fact, if you’re talking about the worst week ever to start a new year, it has nver been worse than this past week.

There was just one new position opened on the week and that was one position too many, even as it looked as if it may have been a good decision for just a few hours.

That position ended the week 6.1% lower while the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500 were both 5.9% lower.

The only shred of good news was that as bad as the week was, the existing positions still fared better than the overall market, but that is rarely any real solace.

Existing positions outperformed the S&P 500 by 1.8%, but that still meant that they were 4.1% lower on the week.

A loss is a loss.

There were no assignments on the week. No surprise, there.

The loss for this week was pretty stunning, especially since so many were of the belief that the flatness of 2015 was bound to translate into a good 2016.

That still may be the case, but the hole dug in the first week of the year is a pretty deep one.

So deep, that no first week of the year has ever witnessed those kind of depths.

There was absolutely nothing of virtue to report upon for the week.

With only one new purchase and 2 ex-dividend positions, there was no generation of meaningful income and any hope of rollovers was dashed by mid-week, as the losses piled on and on.

That leaves us with next week.

That’s the final week of the January 2016 option cycle and things don’t look very optimistic.

With a fair number of positions set to expire next week, I already had my thoughts on early rollovers, but there wasn’t a single moment during the course of the week that offered any opportunity to push your troubles down the line.

With an avalanche of bad news this week it’s not too surprising that our markets swooned.

We were through this barely 6 months ago when China went south and are now back again.

At that time I was expecting that the respite we saw was going to be short lived. I really didn’t expect it to have lasted this long.

Now the question is when we will realize that we are the dog and that the tail shouldn’t be wagging us.

With no assignments this week and with relatively little cash, I don’t expect to be on the lookout for any places to part with my money.

With no sign of relief and selling getting worse and worse as the final day of the week wore on, there’s no reason to think that we’re at the end of the selling and we certainly didn’t see very many people showing their bravery during the course of the week.

Those that did probably have some regrets about having done so.

With today’s drop we’re again 10% below the August high, but we’re also about 9% below the recovery high in November 2015.

Those mental landmarks in charts can either be support or can offer no resistance at all.

Back in August there was no resistance at all and it pretty much came in one big swoop.

This week there were lots of those swoops, but the numbers to be on the lookout for on the S&P 500 are 1913, then 1884 and then 1867.

I’d prefer not to see those get tested and would trade off some of the increased volatility for some price recovery.

.

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  MS

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: none

Calls Expired:  BAC, BBBY, DOW, MS

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:   CSCO (1/4 $0.21), GPS (1/4 $0.23)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: WFM (1/13 $0.135)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CY, FAST, FCX, GDX, GPS, HAL, HPQ, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS,  M, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

NOVEMBER 23 – 27, 2015

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
2  /   2	0	3	3   /   0	1   /  0	0	2

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

November 23 – 27, 2015

< strong>This was a week that may as well not even happened.

After 3 trading days in which the market didn’t move the needle and then a little break for Thanksgiving, the week closed on Friday without ever getting that needle to budge even the slightest bit.

There were 2 new positions for the week and they beat both the adjusted and undadjusted S&P 500 by 1.6%

Those positions were up 1.6% while the S&P 500 was unchanged.

Despite some continuing weakness in energy and commodities, existing positions out-performed the S&P 500 by 0.3% after a couple of weeks of having lagged, as those particular sectors were weak.

For the year the 74 closed lots in 2015 continue to outperform the market. They are an average of 4.6% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been  1.1% higher. That difference represents a 327.1% performance differential. 

While this was yet another week in which there wasn’t too much in the way of real economic news, the market did get to test the resolve of traders.

That test came when the revised GDP was released and it showed even stronger growth. That likely means that the FOMC will be in a better position to justify an announcement of an interest rate hike in about 12 days from today.

Instead of a big sell off, which would have indicated an about face by traders who seem to have come to accept an upcoming increase and instead of a big rally, the market did nothing.

That was the story for the week, although if fine tuning the reaction, there was some initial disappointment and then that, too, got appropriately resolved.

Without the ups and downs that have characterized so many of the past weeks over the last 3 months, there wasn’t any real bouncing around, but it still turned out to be a decent week.

With 2 new positions opened, 3 rollovers, 2 ex-dividend positions and 3 assignments, there was a little for everyone.

I especially like those occasions when I can rollover the same position twice, as was the case this week.

Unfortunately, there was also a position that expired without assignment, nor rollover and that gets added to a much too long of a list of similar positions.

WIth a decent amount of cash getting added to reserves, I’m willing to use some or even all of it next week in the pursuit of generating some new income flow.

On the other hand, there are 2 positions set for expiration next week which could potentially be the source of some income, but more importantly, there are 6 positions going ex-dividend next week, include some that have multiple lots.

That means that there may be a little bit less of a need to look for income producing trades for the week.

Next week does have an Employment SItuation Report to end the week, but there’s not very much before then, other than lots of Federal Reserve Governors who are willing to share their opinions and will be doing so in the week prior to their next meeting.

The expectation has to be that the Employment Situation Report will deliver a solid number. With that comes the additional expectation that traders will take that number in a rational way and bid the market even higher.

It’s not too likely that there will be a disappointing number, but if there was
one, you could probably look for a marked sell-off, unless those FOMC Governors give strong reason to believe that the FOMC is now hell bent on getting that rate increase decussion made prior to 2016.

For me, the likelihood is that if the market doesn’t go down to open the week or at least not move much higher, it will be a very slow trading week for me. As we sit only about 2% below all time highs, the market is within easy striking distance of more new highs or a technical correction point.

Guessing where things go is  really like flipping coin, but despite knowing that none of the previous flips has any predictive value for an upcoming flip, I’d still rather know that the market has come off of a decline before putting any new money at risk.

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  BBY, PFE

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  HFC (12/24)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  HFC (1/15/16)

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: STX

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: BBY, KO, PFE

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:  MAT (11/23 $0.38), KO (11/27 $0.33)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  HAL (12/1 $0.18), MOS (12/1 $0.28), HFC (12/2 $0.33), COH (12/2 $0.34), BAC (12/2 $0.05), WMT (12/2 $0.49)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CY, FAST, FCX, GDX, GPS, HAL, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS,  MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

NOVEMBER 16 – 20, 2015

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
1  /   1	1	4	1   /   0	0   /  0	0	1

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

November 16 – 20, 2015

< strong>After a terrible week last week, this week could just as easily have been that way, but instead was strong throughout the week.

It could easily have sold off upon the release of the FOMC minutes, but now seems ready to accept what we all knew had to be coming sooner, rather than later.

There was only one new position for the week, but despite rising 1.7%, it could keep up with the market that nearly erased the entire loss from the previous week.

The adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500 rose a very impressive 3.3% on the week, after having fallen an equally impressive 3.6% the pror week.

But it was still one of those weeks where surpassing was only in relative tems as those positions were 1.5% lower for the week while the unadjusted S&P 500 was 3.6% lower and the adjusted S&P 500 was 2.9% lower.

Energy and commodirties continued to be weak, but retail wasn’t as bad as had been the case the prior week.

For the year the 71 closed lots in 2015 continue to outperform the market. They are an average of 4.6% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been  1.1% higher. That difference represents a 313.8% performance differential. 

This was yet another week where there really wasn’t too much in the way of real economic news, but the market didn’t really seem to need much in the way of real economic news.

After getting off to a really good start on Monday, it looked as if it would do the same on Tuesday, but then backed away from the gains it had hoped to add on.

What made the week really impressive, beyond the 3.3% gain, was how it came back after having given up on that Tuesday rally.

Also, with release of the FOMC minutes and the clearly hawkish tone of the members, the market didn’t shrink away and head into a deep sell-off, as it had some other times.

That’s different.

Even though it may be hard to see the justiication for a rate increase at this time, the market is now ready for it.

It had been ready for it back in September, as well and then changed its mind and took us into our first real correction in years. 

What’s fascinating is that the market correction didn’t last long, but if you still look at the components of that market, the individual corrections in so many of those stocks continues, as the breadth is very, very narrow.

Who knows where the wind will blow next, but I was happy with the week, especially in being able to at least get an assignment of the single poisition opened and being able to roll all of the expiring positions over.

Next week is a holiday shortened week and so premiums will be a little bit lower, in addition to being dragged down by the low volatility.

With a little bit of cash receycled, I wouldn’t mind spending some money, although as is usually the case after a quick run higher, I would much rather see some of the gains given back before spending too much.

With only 2 positions set to expire next week, the likelihood is that if I can identify a purchase on Monday, i would try to look for a weekly expiration, otherwise, it may make more sense to look at extended weekly expirations and to spend more time thinking about enjoying the upcoming holiday

 

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  MS

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  CSCO (1/15/16), F 912/18/15)

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  WY

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: STX

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: MS

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: MRO (11/16 $0.05)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:   MAT (11/23 $0.38), KO (11/27 $0.33)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, CHK, CLF, COH, CY, FAST, FCX, GDX, GPS, HAL, JCP, JOY, KM
I, KSS, LVS,  MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

NOVEMBER 9 – 13, 2015

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
2   /   3	0	1	0   /   0	1  /  0	0	1

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

November 9 – 13, 2015

This week picked up where last week ended and didn’t really get any better, whereas last week at least did have some bright spots.

There were 3 new positions opened for the week and they surpassed the unadjusted S&P 500 by 2.1% and the adjusted S&P 500 by 1.4% .

That’s another 

But it was still one of those weeks where surpassing was only in relative tems as those positions were 1.5% lower for the week while the unadjusted S&P 500 was 3.6% lower and the adjusted S&P 500 was 2.9% lower.

It was another week with a relatively large discrepancy between adjusted and unadjusted performance reflecting how the market deteriorated over the week and there were some efforts to capitalize on that weakness.

This week, instead of energy and commodities being the basis for weakness, it was retail that added on to the already wary market’s lack
of desire to buy anything.

For the year the 70 closed lots in 2015 continue to outperform the market. They are an average of 4.6% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been  1.1% higher. That difference represents a 334.5% performance differential. 

There wasn’t too much in terms of real economic news this week, but that didn’t stop the markets from having some general malaise and then some tantrum-like behavior.

Malaise was understandable, but the really disappointing retail sales numbers combined with an ever increasingly sounding hawkish FOMC can understandably lead people to wonder whether it makes any sense to tighten up credit, even by only 0.25%, when no one is buying much of anything.

Hard to make an argument for not giving into the fear.

I did part with more cash than I had been expecting to try and make up for the lack of any meaningful income stream coming out of this week activity and expiring positions.

Like most everything, they were caught in the continuing whirlwind lower, even though it looked as if all was clear at the time of their purchase.

With no assignments this week, there was no replenishment of cash reserves, so I will not be as likely to spend next week.

With a number of positions set to expire next week, the greatest likelihood is that if I do part with some cash it will be with some longer term time frames in mind when looking to sell options on the positions.

With Thanksgiving week coming up and markets open on that Friday, that would be a likely week to consider, as the following week could be, as well.

What would be nice, though, is some clarity.

What would be helpful is for the FOMC to finally do something and get things over with.

The back and forth has really been fairly ridiculous and unsettling for just about everyone.

Hopefully that’s not being lost on the person or people who matter the most when it comes to the decision process, even though the stock market’s performance is really not something that they should be using to create policy.

But making the decision to raise rates, especially if only 0.25%, would let us move on and let the FOMC get back to more analytical and intellectual pursuits, instead of talking and hawking policy.

This was a disappointing week by most all standards. 

There wasn’t much in the way of activity and net asset value declined. At least there was some ability to generate income from the new positions this week and there was an ex-dividend position.

Fortunately, the one position expiring this week was able to be rolled over and the other new positions opened this week started off life with some longer expiring contracts, so at least there’s some hope for them.

With no assignments this week and no cash being replenished, I’m not overly eager to dip into cash reserves next week. My primary focus will be on managing those positions that expire as the November 2015 option cycle comes to its inglorious end.

 

 

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  IP, M STX (puts)

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  IP

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO:  none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: none

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: IP (11/12 $0.44)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:   MRO (11/16 $0.05)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, CHK, CLF, COH, CY, FAST, FCX, GDX, GPS, HAL, HPQ, INTC, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS,  MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.