Monthly Archives: November 2016

Daily Market Update –  November 23, 2016 (Close)

With these trade shortened holiday weeks anything can happen, but from the view this morning it looked as if the Trump rally would now take a day of rest as much of the nation was in transit.

Futures appeared to be fairly quiet this morning as the day began with more new record closing highs.

When it was all over, there were more record highs.

Nothing huge, but still new highs, even as the S&P 500 was up only 0.08% and the NASDAQ was actually down 0.1%.

People like to talk about those round numbers, so yesterday was a big day as the DJIA closed above 19000 for the first time and the S&P 500 closed over 2200 and today they stayed above those levels.

There is plenty of reason to think that when these kind of new highs are hit it is just a launching board for a sharp move higher.

There is also plenty of evidence to suggest when we hit these kind of new highs there is profit taking ahead.

Then there is plenty of evidence to suggest that when we hit these new highs and there is subsequent profit taking, that becomes a launching pad for new highs.

Although another test of those highs may be in store, with more evidence indicating that the third time is a charm.

Then, there is also plenty of evidence that when we hit these kind of new highs there is a correction ahead.

Take your pick.

I think that we may have more new highs ahead, but I also think that the FOMC enters back into the equation.

Not just with its announcement next month, but also with the frequency and size of interest rate decisions in 2017.

For the rest of 2016, I think we may coast and end up looking at the year as a very positive one for the markets, but more importantly, for ourselves.

Even more importantly, I hope everyone has a happy and healthy Thanksgiving.

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Daily Market Update –  November 23, 2016 (7:30 AM)

With these trade shortened holiday weeks anything can happen, but for now it looks as if the Trump rally may now take a day of rest as much of the nation is in transit.

Futures appear to be fairly quiet this morning as the day begins with more new record closing highs.

People like to talk about those round numbers, so yesterday was a big day as the DJIA closed above 19000 for the first time and the S&P 500 closed over 2200.

There is plenty of reason to think that when these kind of new highs are hit it is just a launching board for a sharp move higher.

There is also plenty of evidence to suggest when we hit these kind of new highs there is profit taking ahead.

Then there is plenty of evidence to suggest that when we hit these new highs and there is subsequent profit taking, that becomes a launching pad for new highs.

Although another test of those highs may be in store, with more evidence indicating that the third time is a charm.

Then, there is also plenty of evidence that when we hit these kind of new highs there is a correction ahead.

Take your pick.

I think that we may have more new highs ahead, but i also think that the FOMC enters back into the equation.

Not just with its announcement next month, but also with the frequency and size of interest rate decisions in 2017.

For the rest of 2016, I think we may coast and end up looking at the year as a very positive one for the markets, but more importantly, for ourselves.

.

Daily Market Update –  November 22, 2016 (Close)

With these trade shortened holiday weeks anything can happen, but for now it looks as if the Trump rally may continue after taking a week off.

Markets hit all time highs yesterday on all indexes and they looked like they were getting ready to do the same again today and they ended up staying true to that theme all day long.

That still leaves me in a frame of mind to simply go along for the ride and then, wherever may be possible, sell some calls on existing uncovered positions.

I tried doing that today and also tried some early rollovers, but without any luck.

Maybe tomorrow.

Now, I would simply like to close the books on 2016 although it won’t be a year in which I closed lots of trades.

Instead, it will, hopefully, finish as a year with just a nice increase in net asset value, but without realizing a lot of those gains.

I hope that 2017 has more trades closing and more new trades getting made.

Those all represent realized gains and they can’t evaporate overnight like the paper ones can do at any moment in time.

I’m still not against spending any cash to generate some income this week, but at this point, I’m not thrilled about buying into strength at a time when premiums are so low from their already depressed volatility and the trade shortened week.

Or, I could just do like yesterday and sit around doing nothing.

Sounds like a good plan for tomorrow and the rest of the week.

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Daily Market Update –  November 22, 2016 (9:30 AM)

With these trade shortened holiday weeks anything can happen, but for now it looks as if the Trump rally may continue after taking a week off.

Markets hit all time highs yesterday on all indexes and they look like they’re getting ready to do the same again today.

That still leaves me in a frame of mind to simply go along for the ride and then, wherever may be possible, sell some calls on existing uncovered positions.

I would simply like to close the books on 2016 although it won’t be a year in which i closed lots of trades.

Instead, it will, hopefully, finish as a year with just a nice increase in net asset value, but without realizing a lot of those gains.

I hope that 2017 has more trades closing and more new trades getting made.

Those all represent realized gains and they can’t evaporate overnight like the paper ones can do at any moment in time.

I’m still not against spending any cash to generate some income this week, but at this point, I’m not thrilled about buying into strength at a time when premiums are so low from their already depressed volatility and the trade shortened week.

Or, I could just do like yesterday and sit around doing nothing.

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Daily Market Update –  November 21, 2016 (Close)

This is an odd week.

That’s because I have more money to spend than in quite a while, thanks to 2 assignments and the expiration of some short puts.

It’s also a holiday shortened trading week with no positions set to expire and only one ex-dividend position.

Ordinarily, that would see me wanting to create some income opportunities for the week.

But my inclination at the moment is not to dip into cash reserves.

Part of that is because I don’t want to dip into those hard earned cash reserves, but the other half is that the premiums just aren’t very good.

Early this morning I already had my sights on the price of oil hoping that there might be an opportunity to re-open another new position in that old 2016 favorite, Marathon Oil.

But it didn’t look as if the move was going to be in the right direction, so that was off the map, too and stayed that way throughout the day.

Last week was a quiet one from a market movement perspective, even as I was happy with the amount of trading that I was able to do and the ability to create some income flow while also adding to cash reserves.

This week could very easily also be a quiet market week, especially from my trading perspective, but it could also be a volatile one due to the anticipated low trading volume.

At times like that I would rather not flip a coin if considering committing new cash, so I may just stay on the sidelines.

If so, I don’t mind any outcome.

A move higher takes me for a ride and a move lower may open up some buying opportunities for the cash.

That cash doesn’t burn the same hole in my pockets as it used to, anyway.

Today it was just a ride higher and with energy and commodities again out-performing, as they’ve done through all of 2016.

That’s why I have had a smile for most of the year, but it’s also why I didn’t have one for much of 2015.

We’ll see what awaits in 2017, but whatever it is, at some point markets are going to come to the realization that there wasn’t too much sense in following energy higher, nor in following it lower, until the real tenets of supply and demand kick in.

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