Daily Market Update – November 21, 2016



Daily Market Update –  November 21, 2016 (7:30 AM)

This is an odd week.

That’s because I have more money to spend than in quite a while, thanks to 2 assignments and the expiration of some short puts.

It’s also a holiday shortened trading week with no positions set to expire and only one ex-dividend position.

Ordinarily, that would see me wanting to create some income opportunities for the week.

But my inclination at the moment is not to dip into cash reserves.

Part of that is because I don’t want to dip into those hard earned cash reserves, but the other half is that the premiums just aren’t very good.

Early this morning I already had my sights on the price of oil hoping that there might be an opportunity to re-open another new position in that old 2016 favorite, Marathon Oil.

But it doesn’t look as if the move is in the right direction, so that may be off the map, too.

Last week was a quiet one from a market movement perspective, even as I was happy with the amount of trading that I was able to do and the ability to create some income flow while also adding to cash reserves.

This week could very easily also be a quiet market week, especially from my trading perspective, but it could also be a volatile one due to the anticipated low trading volume.

At times like that I would rather not flip a coin if considering committing new cash, so I may just stay on the sidelines.

If so, I don’t mind any outcome.

A move higher takes me for a ride and a move lower may open up some buying opportunities for the cash.

That cash doesn’t burn the same hole in my pockets as it used to, anyway.


Dashboard – November 21 – 25, 2016







MONDAY:   Anything goes during a holiday shortened trading week, but this one looks like it will get off to a slow start.

TUESDAY:    More record closing highs and the futures look like they want even more. I’m happy watching for now.








Today's TradesCash-o-Meter





Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution








Weekly Summary


Weekend Update – November 20, 2016

You might be able to easily understand any reluctance that the FOMC has had in the past year or maybe even in the year ahead to raise interest rates.

To understand why those decision makers could be scarred, all you have to do is glance back to nearly a year ago.

At that time, after a 9 year period of not having had a single increase in interest rates, the FOMC did increase interest rates.

The data compelled them to do so, as the FOMC has professed to be data driven.

Presumably, they did more than just look in the rear view mirror, casting forward projections and interpreting what are sometimes conflicting pieces of the puzzle.

At the time, the conventional wisdom, no doubt guided somewhat by the FOMC’s own suggestions, was that the small increase was going to be the first and that we were likely to see a series of such increases in 2016.

Funny thing about that, though.

Data is not the same as a crystal ball. Data is backward looking and trends can stop on a dime, or if I were to factor in the future value of money based upon the increase in the 10 Year Treasury note ever since Election Day, considerably more than a dime.

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Week In Review – November 14 – 18, 2016


Option to Profit

Week in Review

NOVEMBER 14 – 18, 2016

0  /   0  2 2 2   /   1 3   /   0 0 1


Weekly Up to Date Performance

November 14 – 18, 2016

Well this week was pretty much the antithesis to last week.

Probably a good thing, though.

I was pretty happy with this week, even though I didn’t open any new positions.

The S&P 500 finished the week 0.9% higher and existing positions did well.

More importantly, there was again opportunity to put some idle positions to work and there were opportunities to add to the cash reserves thanks to some assignments and the expiration of some short puts.

There were also a couple of rollovers.

The only negative was that there were some expirations, as well, but as has been the case all through 2016, a little patience may pay off.

With 3 new closed positions this week, there are now 27 on the year.

That’s nothing compared to past years, especially when you consider that 11 of those closed positions were a single stock.

The average closed position in 2016 is 7.3% higher, as long as you conveniently omit MolyCorp. That compares to 2.0% for the S&P 500 during the various time periods of holding, representing a 256.6% differential.

There really wasn’t too much going on this week, other than more data to suggest that the FOMC will have an easy decision in a few weeks.

That’s because retail sales have been better than expected, as long as you don’t think too much about specialty retailers.

It’s also because the bond market has been doing the FOMC’s work for it as interest rates continue moving higher since the Presidential election.

I was very happy to have a nice combination of assignments, rollovers and call sales this week.

Mostly, I don’t mind getting more into cash as we look forward a few weeks to the FOMC meeting.

While we all expect action this time around, the expectation continues to be for just a 0.25% increase.

That’s probably what it will be, but in the back of my mind I think about the possibility of a 0.50% increase.

That would probably decimate traders.

Not likely to happen, but I don’t mind having some more cash than has been the case for quite some time.

Next week is a holiday shortened one and while I won’t mind dipping into cash, the premiums aren’t likely to be very enticing for just 4 days of trading.

I’m looking forward to a quiet week, but we all know that these light volume weeks can also bring some surprises, so even if there are few if any trades to be made, there will be reason to watch with some interest.

As earnings are now almost complete, the rest of 2016 will be an FOMC watch and thoughts about strategic selling.

While there haven’t been too many gains in 2016 for the overall market, even as we are at new highs, it has been a very good year, but I’ll still be happy to see it go.

.Happy Thanksgiving to all.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):

New Positions Opened:  none

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:   none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  M

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: IP

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone


Put contracts expired: MRO

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assig
:  MRO, MS

Calls Expired:  COH, GME, INTC

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions    MRO (11/14 $0.05)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: HFC (11/23 $0.33)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)

* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.

Daily Market Update – November 18, 2016



Daily Market Update –  November 18, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: MRO, MS

Rollovers: none

Expirations:   COH, GME, INTC, MRO (puts)

The following were ex-dividend this week:    MRO (11/14 $0.05)

The following are ex-dividend next week:  HFC (11/23 $0.33)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT.

With IP and M already rolled over earlier in the week, it looks as if it may be a very quiet day of personal trading today.