Daily Market Update – October 17, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update –  October 17, 2016 (Close)


There’s not too much scheduled this week outside of earnings, so we may actually get a chance to focus on fundamentals.

There aren’t even very many Federal Reserve  speakers this week, so those earnings and especially guidances, may really be front and center.

What everyone is looking forward to is a break to the past 6 quarters of sub-par earnings and tepid guidance.

I had been looking forward to this week, as it was going to be the successful conclusion to the October 2016 option cycle, but now that “successful” qualifier is at real risk.

Barely a week ago I thought most of the week’s expiring positions were likely to either be assigned or rolled over.

Now, it doesn’t seem that way, although one of those originally set to expire this week was rolled over last week and I did get to roll over another position today, once again going long, by adding another month onto the existing contract.

Still, that changes things if the expiring positions aren’t going to contribute to my well being this week, even if they might yet again do so.

With less prospects for developing rollover revenue from those expiring positions, there was some need to add to existing positions. However, with minimal prospects of having assignments and replenishing cash, I also had a reluctance to dip into those reserves at a time that I would mind seeing them grow.

Such dilemmas.

Usually, I spend the money if there is anything that looks remotely attractive and this week would probably be no different.

It wasn’t, as I went back yet again to the well, more precisely the oil well, and repeated the trade of last week and some 8 other times in 2016.

What will probably be no different is that the trading during the rest of the week will likely be sparse, as there is also very little reason to get out ahead of the market on the long side, at a time when there may be need to simply get out of the market.

With a new position and a roll over already, along with one ex-dividend position, maybe I should call it a week.

While the market was exceptionally flat through most of the day, there’s still some hope for something good to hit the tape as companies report this week and may give markets a reason to be optimistic.

Today wasn’t really that day, as Netflix isn’t yet a market leader and IBM continues to not crush it, as it claimed victory by reporting flat revenues.

That’s been the story for lots of companies for far too long.

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Daily Market Update – October 17, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  October 17, 2016 (7:30 AM)


There’s not too much scheduled this week outside of earnings, so we may actually get a chance to focus on fundamentals.

There aren’t even very many Federal Reserve  speakers this week, so those earnings and especially guidances, may really be front and center.

What everyone is looking forward to is a break to the past 6 quarters of sub-par earnings and tepid guiance.

I had been looking forward to this week, as it was going to be the successful conclusion to the October 2016 option cycle, but now that “successful” qualifier is at real risk.

Barely a week ago I thought most of the week’s expiring positions were likely to either be assigned or rolled over.

Now, it doesn’t seem that way, although one of those originally set to expire this week was rolled over last week.

Still, that changes things if the expiring positions aren’t going to contribute to my well being this week, even if they might yet again do so.

With less prospects for developing rollover revenue from those expiring positions, there may be some need to add to existing positions. However, with minimal prospects of having assignments and replenishing cash, I also have a reluctance to dip into those reserves at a time that I would mind seeing them grow.

Such dilemmas.

Usually, I spend the money if there is anything that looks remotely attractive and this week will probably be no different.

What will also probably be no different is that the trading will likely be sparse, as there is also very little reason to get out ahead of the market on the long side, at a time when there may be need to simply get out of the market.

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Dashboard – October 17 – 21, 2016

 

 

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:   Other than earnings, this is a quiet week for scheduled events. Markets look like they will open to the negative, but not with too much conviction

TUESDAY:   A small loss yesterday and the market looks to erase that, even as some earnings in the important technology sector aren’t looking too good this morning

WEDNESDAY: A decent day yesterday and some decent earnings still from financials, but otherwise some of the outlooks are not as optimistic as we need to get buyers excited.

THURSDAY:  The market is in a position to break a 2 week losing streak and this morning could add a little to that margin as the monthly cycle comes to its end with lots of earnings to come still this week

FRIDAY:. Markets are poised to end the week higher, breaking a 2 week losing streak, even as earnings and guidances have been mixed.


 

 



 

                                                                                                                                           

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Weekly Summary

  

Weekend Update – October 16, 2016

As a movie a few years ago, “It’s Complicated,” starring Alec Baldwin, was a funny one that explored some aspects of life that many could relate to in one form or another.

A few weeks ago we were all surprised to learn of some new casting for the upcoming season of Saturday Night Live. But now after his successful appearances portraying Donald Trump, Alec Baldwin’s next role could very well be that of Janet Yellen.

While the Chairman of the Federal Reserve may not be as widely known as the Presidential candidate, for those that are aware of the very important role she plays in all of our lives, we could use something amusing to put events into perspective as we end so many days just shaking our heads wondering what is really going on.

Clearly, it’s complicated.

The one thing you know in life is that when you hear someone begin an explanation of anything with the qualifier “it’s complicated,” you had better be prepared to be deflated.

In the event you are paying attention to the world’s economies, deflated is not the direction anyone wants to be going.

Unlike the way it was portrayed in the movie, complications are usually not very funny, unless perhaps brought to life by Alec Baldwin.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha

  

Week in Review – October 10 – 14, 2016

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review


October 10 – 14, 2016

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
0  /  1 0 3 0   /   0 0   /   0 0 0

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

October 10 – 14, 2016

This was another one of those weeks in which I had no idea what the week was all about, but I still think that something is brewing.

Again, it’s also a week in which I have no idea whether to be pleased or displeased about this week.

I was pleased to have made an opening position trade and to have been able to roll some positions over, but I was displeased with the performance of existing positions in an otherwise weak time period.

The single new position outperformed the adjusted S&P 500 by 2.2% and the unadjusted S&P 500 by 1.8%.

That position was 0.8% higher for the week, while the unadjusted S&P 500 lost 1.0% and the adjusted S&P 500 was 1.4% lower.

What was good was also the opportunity to rollover the week’s sole expiring position and to also rollover a couple of longstanding positions that have been retracing their price and instead of being in line for assignment next week are now continuing to be income producers for another few months, at least.

That’s OK by me.

There were no new assignments of shares to add to the closed positions in 2016 and, therefore, no new cash to add to the reserves, that i would still like to see grow.

With mostly good news to end the week, the market managed to give up most of the big gain that it had made on the day and ended up the week with a 1% loss.

The bad news on the week, at least as far as investors go is that the odds of an interest rate increase by December is now thought to be about 70%.

Investors don’t seem to like that kind of certainty, nor do they like the kind of opinion that was expressed in the release of the last month’s FOMC meeting.

So, despite good bank earnings, there wasn’t too much to cheer about and the market spent most of the week just following oil back and forth.

With another purchase this week of a speculative position, I was just glad to be able to roll it over and hope to be able to do so again next week.

I was also happy to be able to rollover one of those positions set to expire next week and has been the case for the past year, there was another opportunity to extend the expiration date, this time into 2017.

I had been looking forward to next week’s month ending expiration, but the sudden turn in pricing now makes some of those assignments and rollovers look much less likely.

I’m hopeful that earnings next week may buoy the market which is in need of some kind of a catalyst.

I still have some cash as the week is about to begin and with only one ex-dividend position coming up and perhaps the chance of no rollovers or assignments, I would like to find some way to generate some income.

That of course is balanced with wanting to preserve cash, but I’ve had a hard time resisting some of the recent opportunities.

Most of the time I’ve been happy to have not been able to resist, but there’s still the occasional trade that should have been resisted.

Fortunately, in the past year I’ve become more patient with some of those positions and can wait to make an income generating trade, rather than jumping at a less than appealing trade.

Next week will be a busy one ith earnings and we may also get a more and more clear idea of what December may bring.

If that’s the case, there may be reason to hang on tightly, unless markets come to their senses and realize that it may be time to celebrate.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  MRO puts

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:   none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  GDX (1/20/2017)

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: MRO

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  none

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions    none

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  FAST (10/21 $0.30)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.