Weekend Update – October 9, 2016

About a year ago at this time, we were all waiting for what would turn out to be the first interest rate increase by the FOMC in nearly 9 years.

Once that increase finally arrived at the end of 2015, we were all preparing for what we were led to believe would be a series of small such increases throughout the course of 2016.

The problem, however, that stood in the way of those increases becoming reality was the FOMC’s insistence that their decisions would be data dependent. As we all know, the data to justify an increase in interest rates just hasn’t been there ever since that first increase.

The cynics, with the advantage of hindsight, might suggest that the data wasn’t even there a year ago, but that didn’t stop the FOMC from their action, which in short order took the market to its 2016 lows.

Back when those lows were hit in February, many credit Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase (JPM) for abruptly ending the correction by making a $26 million purchase of his own company’s shares. That wasn’t a terribly large amount of money, but it probably wasn’t a coincidence that the market turned on a dime.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha

 

Week in Review – October 3 – 7, 2016

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review


October 3 – 7, 2016

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
0  /  1 4 0 0   /   0 0   /   1 0 2

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

October 3 – 7, 2016

I have no idea what this week was all about, but something is brewing.

I also have no idea whether to be pleased or displeased about this week.

I was definitely displeased with the really poor timing in adding shares of a precious metal ETF.

I knew that there was a likelihood of continuing sharp volatility in that position, but I didn’t think that it would be sustained in a single direction.

That one position was 11.6% lower on the week, while the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500 were 0.7% lower.

Not even close.

What was better was how existing positions performed.

Existing positions were 0.1% lower on the week, but outperformed the S&P 500 by 0.6%.

That was mixed news, at best.

What was good was the opportunity to sell calls on multiple lots of two uncovered positions and doing so to try and capitalize on their healthy dividends and option premiums. Even though those positions were rolled out in time, all the way to January 2017, the opportunities that they presented still looked far better than the questionable alternatives that the market is offering.

There were no new assignments of shares to add to the closed positions in 2016 and, therefore, no new cash to add to the reserves, that i would desperately like to see grow.

What there was, however, was an assignment of the short puts position, which ended up deep in the hole for the week, but if that volatility continues may not be too big of a hole to dig out from under.

It’s really hard to know what comes next after Friday’s ambiguous Employment Situation report.

Stocks were basically all over the place for the week and were all over the place on Fri
day, as well.

Earnings season actually starts next week and that could take our mind off of the re-association between oil and stocks, interest rates, plunging precious metal prices and currency woes in Great Britain.

There is no greater clarity following this past week and unless corporate earnings or the guidance provided can do anything to clear things up, we may just be in store for more of this kind of annoying uncertainty and lack of conviction.

I still have some cash in reserve, but have no positions expiring next week and have no ex-dividend positions, so may very well be on the lookout for some opportunity to generate some income, but am very reluctant to do so with anything other than a quick hit.

However, that’s what I thought I was getting into this past week and those precious metals turned out to be a big, big disappointment.

At this point, I don’t particularly want any more disappointment, but I do want the income.

While we await earnings, we may get some cues from the many Federal Reserve speakers, especially since there is also a release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday.

Before Janet Yellen wraps up the week, there is also a retail Sales Report and that could shed some light on what the consumer is up to, as the evidence may be mounting that the consumer is getting back into action.

Interest rates, anyone?



This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  AGQ puts

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:   none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: DOW, DOW (January 2017), LVS, LVS (January 2017)

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  none

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  AGQ

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions    GPS (10/3 $0.23), BMY (10/5 $0.38)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: none

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Daily Market Update – October 7, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  October 7, 2016 (7:30 AM)


The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: AGQ puts

Rollovers: none

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:    GPS (10/3 $0.23), BMY (10/5 $0.38)

The following are ex-dividend next week:  none

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

.


Daily Market Update – October 6, 2016 (Close)

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – October 6, 2016 (Close)

 

Yesterday saw a nice rally that was led by oil, not that that really makes any more sense than it had made through much of 2016.

Nonetheless, it gave another opportunity to sell some calls on a non-performing position, but once again, the expiration date was measured in months and not in weeks.

While I do like trading and enjoy the activity, ultimately, it’s the bottom line and comparative performance that counts.

I suppose that if I can get to that bottom line objective it may not matter that I got there in a less enjoyable way, but it will matter to me.

Still, an opportunity is an opportunity and I don’t mind seeing the projected returns in the event of an assignment, even if it is still 3 or 4 months away.

For some reason, I still like looking at those nice percentage returns, especially when the stock hasn’t really moved very much.

For me, that never gets old, although waiting for assignments is both getting old and seeing me getting older and older.

That I could do without.

This morning, the day before the Employment Situation report was to be released, you would expect that markets would be cautious.

You may not have known it by the way the market ended, but there were times during today’s trading that it looked as if some caution was going to be thrown into the wind and that traders were inclined to not stand in the way of whatever might be unleashed tomorrow.

But that changed and the market recovered its losses to finish mixed on the day..

What the market has done the past couple of days is to once again take its cues from the oil market, despite the complete lack of sense in doing so.

Tomorrow may signal a return to an interest rate focus and I can’t imagine how anything would be greeted well, unless the employment numbers are weak.

At this point, it seems that anything that looks as if it could be justification for an interest rate increase is being scorned and then results in selling.

The expectations for tomorrow are fairly low.

Only 170,000 new jobs are expected when getting numbers in the 200,000 range have been pretty commonplace.

I hope to be able to get some more trades in, but only if they can put some laggards to work. I don’t want to spend down cash, especially having done so this week and having so poorly timed that purchase.

That may be the theme for a while.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – October 6, 2016

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – October 6, 2016 (7:30 AM)

 

Yesterday saw a nice rally that was led by oil, not that that really makes any more sense than it had made through much of 2016.

Nonetheless, it gave another opportunity to sell some calls on a non-performing position, but once again, the expiration date was measured in months and not in weeks.

While I do like trading and enjoy the activity, ultimately, it’s the bottom line and comparative performance that counts.

I suppose that if I can get to that bottom line objective it may not matter that I got there in a less enjoyable way, but it will matter to me.

Still, an opportunity is an opportunity and I don’t mind seeing the projected returns in the event of an assignment, even if it is still 3 or 4 months away.

For some reason, I still like looking at those nice percentage returns, especially when the stock hasn’t really moved very much.

For me, that never gets old, although waiting for assignments is both getting old and seeing me getting older and older.

That I could do without.

This morning, the day before the Employment Situation report is to be released, you would expect that markets would be cautious. What they’ve done the past couple of days is to once again take their cues from the oil market, despite the complete lack of sense in doing so.

Tomorrow may signal a return to an interest rate focus and I can’t imagine how anything would be greeted well, unless the employment numbers are weak.

At this point, it seems that anything that looks as if it could be justification for an interest rate increase is being scorned and then results in selling.

The expectations for tomorrow are fairly low.

Only 170,000 new jobs are expected when getting numbers in the 200,000 range have been pretty commonplace.

I hope to be able to get some more trades in, but only if they can put some laggards to work. I don’t want to spend down cash, especially having done so this week and having so poorly timed that purchase.

That may be the theme for a while