Dashboard – October 24 – 28, 2016







MONDAY:   The week looks as if it may get off to a positive start coming on the heels of lots of buyout and merger activity over the weekend, ahead of lots of earnings reports and a GDP release

TUESDAY:   A decent day yesterday and not obvious weakness in the cards today, as some equally decent guidance comes this morning from the chemical sector. That could be one of the signs that the FOMC will find its justification for moving forward

WEDNESDAY: With futures lower this morning, October could be the worst month since January, yet we’re on;y about 2% from all time highs with lots of time for something explosive to come.

THURSDAY:  Some more mergers hitting the wires this morning as earnings will be front and center before and after the closing bells today

FRIDAY:. As we await the GDP release, we also await to see which side of the breakeven line the market will land, as earnings reports this morning and late yesterday afternoon are doing little to move markets





Today's TradesCash-o-Meter





Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution








Weekly Summary


Weekend Update – October 23, 2016

This past week was the first full week of earnings for this most recent earnings season and you could be excused for wondering just how to interpret the data coming in.

The financial sector had fared well, but if you were looking for a pattern of revenue and earnings beats, or even looking for a shared sense of optimism going forward from a more diverse group of companies, you’ve been disappointed to date.

For the most part, this past week was one of mixed messages and the market really rewarded the messages that it wanted to hear and really punished when the messages didn’t hit the right notes.

With so much attention being placed on the expectation that the FOMC would have sufficient data to warrant an interest rate increase in December, you might have thought that companies would start painting a slightly more optimistic image of what awaited their businesses, perhaps based upon a building trend from the past quarter.

That optimistic guidance has yet to prevail even as some have been reporting better than expected revenues.

But no one should be surprised with the mixed messages that the market hasn’t been able to interpret and then use as a foothold to move in a sustained direction.

The mixed messages coming from those reporting just follows the wonderful example of streaming mixed messages that have been coming at us all year long from members of the Federal Reserve.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha



Week In Review – October 17 – 21, 2016


Option to Profit

Week in Review

October 17 –  21, 2016

0  /  1 2 2 0   /   1 4   /   0 0 1


Weekly Up to Date Performance

October 17 – 21, 2016

This was another one of those weeks in which I had no idea what the week was all about, but I still think that something is brewing.

I said that last week, too.

The difference was that for me it was easy to know whether to be pleased or displeased this week.

More or less.

For the most part, I was pleased.

I was pleased to have made an opening position trade and pleased to be able to turn that back into cash by the end of the week.

That one new position ended the week 1.8% higher, which was 1.4% higher than both the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500.

The S&P 500 itself was up 0.4% for the week.

I was also pleased with all of the trading that I was able to get done, as well as how existing positions were able to finish 0.9% higher than the S&P 500 for the week.

What I wasn’t too happy about were the positions that expired and now need to have new calls sold on them.

A week ago I though most if not all would either get assigned or be rolled over.

So much for that.

With another assignment this week, there are now 24 closed positions. They will forever be forever overshadowed by MolyCorp, when I look at their performance on the year, but as a group without MolyCorp, those positions have done very well versus the S&P 500. There just are too few of them for 2016.

There really wasn’t much news this week.

What there was happened to be mixed and there was also a tendency to overblow both the good and the bad when it came to earnings.

For my part, i was a happy camper.

There were rollovers, new short positions opened, an assignment and a dividend.

The cash flow was better this week and the account wasn’t drained.

Next week is another big earnings week and I’m hoping to do more of the same as this week.

I don’t mind opening any new positions and I wouldn’t mind selling more calls.

However, with 4 ex-dividend positions on the week, the same urgency isn’t there to generate income as it may have been on other weeks that had no positions available for rollover.

So I may sit back next week more than was the case this week.

However, I thoroughly enjoyed this week, which hasn’t been the case very often, even as 2016 is shaping up to have been a very good year.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):

New Positions Opened:  MRO puts

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:   none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  IP (11/20)

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone


Put contracts expired: MRO $14

Put contracts rolled over: MRO $15

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  none

Calls Expired:  BMY, CY, HPQ, WY

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions    FAST (10/21 $0.30)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  F (10/25 $0.15), KMI (10/28 $0.125), MS (10/27 $0.20), WY (10/26 $0.31)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)

* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.

Daily Market Update – October 21, 2016



Daily Market Update –  October 17, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: MRO $15 (puts)

Expirations:   BMY, CY, HPQ, MRO $14 (puts), WY

The following were ex-dividend this week:    FAST (10/21 $0.30) 

The following are ex-dividend next week:  F (10/25 $0.15), KMI (10/28 $0.125), MS (10/27 $0.20), WY (10/26 $0.31)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT


Daily Market Update – October 20. 2016 (Close)



Daily Market Update –  October 20, 2016 (Close)

With a lot of earnings already out early this morning that painted a mixed picture with regard to the past quarter and more importantly of the coming quarter, we still may be in a position to beat a 2 week losing streak in the market, despite that small loss today.

That would be nice, but there’s still a lot of news ahead in the coming weeks as we get ready for the earnings crescendo that typically comes as retailers report their earnings.

This season, we will also be paying really close attention to their Christmas season guidance, as their impression of the consumer is probably something that is always weighing heavily on the minds of the members of the FOMC.

Coincidentally, they may have a big decision on interest rates due at just about the same time and the big missing piece to the puzzle keep being the reluctant consumer.

There are some signs that may be changing, but no one has the pulse better on that sort of thing than the major retailers.

I’m now counting down the last hours for the week hoping to be able to either keep some positions alive or at least avoid the transaction costs of a rollover and have those positions close enough on Monday’s opening to be able to do something to allow them to generate some revenue, even if having to go out into 2017 to do so.

Why not, as I now have a position set to expire in March 2017.

That would have been unthinkable just a short time ago, other than for my LEAPS kind of buy and hold positions.

So far, this has been a better week than I thought that it might turn out to be and this morning’s sale of so,e calls on an uncovered position helped even more.

We’ll see what opportunities may come from the mixed messages that may continue to come tomorrow.and after.