Daily Market Update – September 7, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update – September 7, 2016 (7:30 AM)


Once the world fully expresses its outrage over the rumored loss of the phone jack in the new iPhone 7, we may have the chance to return to business, as normal.

It looks, though, as if the market is already set to do that, as the futures are trading unchanged.

That comes after a small gain yesterday that made it look as if the day was actually filled with some activity, when it wasn’t.

Yesterday was another day of very narrow range and had very little going on, even as there were some buyout stories that could have given the market a boost.

But basically, the market didn’t care about too much yesterday.

There isn’t too much reason for it to care about anything today or for the rest of the week, although like last week, there could easily be an outlier day that just as easily gets reversed the next day.

For now, nothing much matters until the FOMC meets.

In just 2 weeks we’ll find out whether they will be ahead of the seeable curve or whether even they can’t yet see where the curvature begins.

While i think it might be a good idea to not be ahead of the curve this time around, it’s a reasonable guarantee that no one on the FOMC would be of that belief.

So, we’ll find out in 2 weeks whether rates are nudging higher and just how markets will react, as they have made it pretty clear that while accepting an interest rate increase, they don’t want one now.

Either way, markets will get over it.

Yesterday, the odds of a September increase went lower, as there was some disappointing ISM news.

For the next 2 weeks every little piece of data will be looked at individually, whereas the data should be looked at in their totality.

The biggest pieces, Employment and GDP, are painting opposing pictures and defeating logic at every turn, so it may not be a bad idea to look more closely for any clues about what is really going on in the economy in some of the lesser indicators.

And then hope that you’re right.

The FOMC wasn’t in December 2015, but it’s hard to argue that anyone paid a price for that mis-read, even as the market had its first 10% correction in years.

That correction was only a blip, now that we can look back over the past 6 months.

I did try to get some trades in yesterday, but they were both rollovers.

Not much happened, but I hope to be able to have the chance to try again today and still won’t close the door on any new positions.

I’m not expecting much, but then the disappointments will be fewer.

Daily Market Update – September 6, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update – September 6, 2016 (Close)


Summer is pretty much over and we’re now getting back to normal.

For one thing, that means that over the course of the next 24 days we’ll be hearing a lot about the budget and the need for continuing appropriations to be made by October 1, 2016.

This time around, you can bet that at least one of the 2 main political parties does not want a shutdown, while maybe the other one does.

The other thing that you can count on is a continuation of the FOMC watch, as eyes will be focused on that small group as it meets in just 2 weeks.

Today, as the market closed pretty flat, the sentiment was that some weaker than expected ISM data suggested that there wouldn’t be an interest rate increase in those 2 weeks, but tomorrow may be another story, altogether.

Following last Friday’s Employment Situation report, no one probably expects the announcement of an interest rate increase, but those FOMC members have been pretty cagey about keeping everyone on their toes and guessing.

I’m guessing that there won’t be an increase, but those winds shift daily.

This week does have a couple of expiring positions and 6 ex-dividend positions, so I’m not feeling too much need to look for new positions.

With the uncertainty in the market, reflected once again in the flat futures this morning to start the week, there’s not too much reason to be very adventurous.

I wouldn’t mind adding to some of the dividend positions, but at this point I think I would just as soon focus myself on either getting those 2 expiring positions rolled over or assigned.

I did try that today on at least one of them, but got rebuffed on that, as well as a rollover of a position going ex-dividend on Friday.

While I’d like to add to cash reserves, I don’t mind the idea of continuing to roll either or both of those positions over.

There isn’t too much on tap this week to drive markets, but volume should be picking up, not that the contracted volume caused any upheavals in August.

This week, with only 4 trading days and low volatility, may simply be a return to the quietude of 2016.

Of course, if you were really paying attention to the news or rumor of news today, you would know that the real interest was over whether you’ll have to listen to that quietude without having an audio jack on your new iPhone.

Investor people problems

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Daily Market Update – September 6, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update – September 6, 2016 (9:00 AM)


Summer is pretty much over and we’re now getting back to normal.

For one thing, that means that over the course of the next 24 days we’ll be hearing a lot about the budget and the need for continuing appropriations to be made by October 1, 2016.

This time around, you can bet that at least one of the 2 main political parties does not want a shutdown, while maybe the other one does.

The other thing that you can count on is a continuation of the FOMC watch, as eyes will be focused on that small group as it meets in just 2 weeks.

Following last Friday’s Employment Situation report, no one probably expects the announcement of an interest rate increase, but those FOMC members have been pretty cagey about keeping everyone on their toes and guessing.

I’m guessing that there won’t be an increase, but those winds shift daily.

This week does have a couple of expiring positions and 6 ex-dividend positions, so I’m not feeling too much need to look for new positions.

With the uncertainty in the market, reflected once again in the flat futures this morning to start the week, there’s not too much reason to be very adventurous.

I wouldn’t mind adding to some of the dividend positions, but at this point I think I would just as soon focus myself on either getting those 2 expiring positions rolled over or assigned.

While I’d like to add to cash reserves, I don’t mind the idea of continuing to roll either or both of those positions over.

There isn’t too much on tap this week to drive markets, but volume should be picking up, not that the contracted volume caused any upheavals in August.

This week, with only 4 trading days and low volatility, may simply be a return to the quietude of 2016.

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Dashboard – September 5 – 9, 2016

 

 

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:   Happy Labor Day

TUESDAY:   Even as everyone heads back to work after summer, will anything really change? Not too likely, this week, as eyes are probably focused on FOMC meeting in 2 weeks

WEDNESDAY: Yesterday closed stronger than the day deserved, but today it looks as if we’re back to the flat line to start the day, with little to move markets for the rest of the week.

THURSDAY:  One trade out of the gate yesterday, but today appears to be another flat day all around

FRIDAY:.  Another quiet week comes to an end, but with a mildly negative bias this morning



 

 



 

                                                                                                                                           

Today's TradesCash-o-Meter

 

 

 





 “SNEAK PEEK AT NEXT WEEK” APPEARS ON FRIDAYS

Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Summary

  

Weekend Update – September 4, 2016

These are sensitive times.

For the longest time the FOMC and investors were the closest of allies.

The FOMC gave investors what they craved.

With cheap money increasingly made available investors could do what they want to do the most.

Invest.

In return, if you believe in trickle down economics, the great wealth created by investors would then get re-invested into the economy, helping to fund the creation of jobs, which in turn would fuel increasing demand for consumer products.

That would result in a virtuous cycle that would grow the economy, with the FOMC carefully controlling growth to keep the 40 years’ worth of inflation fears soothed.

Surely that was a win – win scenario, in theory, at least.

Then came the rumors.

Those rumors were started, fueled and spread by the very FOMC that created good times for most everyone that had a discretionary dollar to invest.

The fear that those rumors of an interest rate increase coming soon, perhaps a series of them in 2016, would become reality, periodically sowed selling waves into the blackened hearts of investors.

With even the doves among the FOMC members beginning to utter tones spoken by hawks, investors knew that their glory days were numbered and began expressing some slow acceptance of an interest rate increase.

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