Week in Review – August 29 – September 2, 2016

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

August 29 – September 2, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
1  /  1 0 0 0   /   0 0  /   0 0 4

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

August 29 – September 2, 2016

The market showed a little bit of strength this week, but it showed no character.

The strength that it showed was pretty superficial, though, and doesn’t necessarily translate into anything reliable in the coming week.

It was another week of some, although not much, personal happiness in terms of performance and cash generation.

It was another week with a new position opened, a rarity for 2016.

Like the week preceding, that purchase was an after earnings report release and like the  previous week, the decline in the shares continued.

Hopefully, like the stock from the previous week, the next week will have a rebound and eliminate any regrets.

This week’s new purchase position was 4.0% lower. It trailed the unadjusted S&P 500 by 4.5% and the adjusted S&P 500 by 4.0%

On the week, the unadjusted S&P 500 was up 0.5%, while the adjusted S&P 500 was unchanged.

Existing stocks struggled to keep up with the unadjusted S&P 500, but still it was a good week.

That’s mostly because asset value continued to go higher and did so without oil and commodities 

It was also, however, due to 4 ex-dividend positions.

Since there were no new closed positions for the week, the tally remains the same. Those positions closed in 2016 are still 6.8% higher, while the comparable performance for the S&P 500 during the same holding periods has been 1.8% higher. That represents a 279% difference in return on closed positions. 


The market was mostly treading water this week as it awaited the release of the Employment Situation Report.

That was understandable, particularly as there was good reason to believe that the report could spell the difference between an interest rate hike now, and maybe another before year’s end, or just a single rate hike in Decemer.

It was really anyone’s guess how the market would react to extreme numbers at either end of the spectrum, but its true colors really came out as the slightly disappointing numbers were greeted vary well and then when there was reason to believe that the weak numbers still didn’t rule out a September rate increase, the warm welcome was withdrawn.

No character.

At least not the kind of character you would want to associate with for very long.

With 2 positions set to expire next week and 5 ex-dividend positions and absolutely no idea of what drives the market at this point other than the FOMC’s upcoming meeting in a few weeks, I have no great need to open any new positions next week.

I would be fine with either seeing assignments or keeping the 2 expiring positions in contention to generate more option premium income.

With a holiday shortened week and volatility so low, the premiums aren’t going to be very spectacular anyway, so it might just be a good week to be a casual observer and then just casually take any opportunity that comes along for any existing, but uncovered positions.

That sounds like a plan.

Happy Labor Day.



This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  ANF

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:   none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  none

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions   ANF (8/31 $0.20), BAC (8/31 $0.05), HAL (9/2 $0.18), KSS (9/2 $0.52)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: BBY (9/9 $0.28), GM (9/7 $0.38), MOS (9/6 $0.275), WY (9/7 $0.31), COH (9/8 $0.33)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



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Daily Market Update – September 2, 2016

 

 

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:   Oil and the Employment Situation Report should be the stories for the week, with interest rates maybe taking a break until the latter is released on Friday

TUESDAY:   After an unexpectedly strong day yesterday, it looks as if the futures are back on track for summer doldrums, although Friday’s Employment Situation Report still beckons

WEDNESDAY: It looks as if it might continue to be quiet today as most are awaiting Friday’s Employment Situation Report and debating September versus December, forgetting that the FOMC has said that an off cycle announcement is a possibility.

THURSDAY:  Yesterday seemed to follow oil lower, but we are still in a tight range and that appears to be continuing in the morning’s futures as we all await tomorrow’s Employment Situation report

FRIDAY:.  Today may be a big day to cap off a week that has done little but continue the general trend of doing little over the past month


 

 



 

                                                                                                                                           

Today's TradesCash-o-Meter

 

 

 





 “SNEAK PEEK AT NEXT WEEK” APPEARS ON FRIDAYS

Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Summary

  

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Daily Market Update – September 1, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update – September 1, 2016 (Close)


Yesterday was a return to the recent kind of normal we had come to expect, as long as your definition of normal has been for stocks to follow oil.

That’s what it did yesterday, although at this point it may just be coincidental, as the relationship between the two hasn’t been that strong for the past few weeks.

There really wasn’t much else going on to account for the decline, other than perhaps to make up the gain seen earlier in the week.

This morning’s futures were again flat, as you might have thought would have been the theme for most of the week as we all awaited Friday’s Employment Situation report.

Today actually was fairly weak for much of the day, but eventually acquitted itself as the DJIA actually cliosed with a small gain, in  a show of some confidence, even as oil continued weak and markets had uncertainty about tomorrow.

No one is really expecting a very strong number, nor a very weak number.

It will really be interesting to see the reaction in either event.

The most likely to send stocks moving higher would be a number that came in line with projections or was actually lower.

That might give investors reason to believe that there would be less chance of an interest rate increase in September, which, if you haven’t noticed has now arrived.

I think a really strong number would send stocks lower, but they would likely not stay there too long, as there is reason to believe that investors would at some point come to accept the fact that rates are going higher because consumers are making and spending more money.

Within reason, that’s great news, although not always great for stocks, which are supposed to see these things happening 6 months before they do.

By that reckoning, the turnaround in February may have presaged what is going on now, but hindsight is a wonderful thing.

I still do have some money to spend, but am very unlikely to do so this week.

What i would really like to see is a market climb tomorrow and an opportunity to make some money by selling calls on anything that remains uncovered.

Slowly, that’s happening, but “slowly” is the key word.


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Daily Market Update – September 1, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update – September 1, 2016 (7:30 AM)


Yesterday was a return to the recent kind of normal we had come to expect, as long as your definition of normal has been for stocks to follow oil.

That’s what it did yesterday, although at this point it may just be coincidental, as the relationship between the two hasn’t been that strong for the past few weeks.

There really wasn’t much else going on to account for the decline, other than perhaps to make up the gain seen earlier in the week.

This morning’s futures are again flat, as you might have thought would have been the theme for most of the week as we all awaited Friday’s Employment Situation report.

No one is really expecting a very strong number, nor a very weak number.

It will really be interesting to see the reaction in either event.

The most likely to send stocks moving higher would be a number that came in line with projections or was actually lower.

That might give investors reason to believe that there would be less chance of an interest rate increase in September, which, if you haven’t noticed has now arrived.

I think a really strong number would send stocks lower, but they would likely not stay there too long, as there is reason to believe that investors would at some point come to accept the fact that rates are going higher because consumers are making and spending more money.

Within reason, that’s great news, although not always great for stocks, which are supposed to see these things happening 6 months before they do.

By that reckoning, the turnaround in February may have presaged what is going on now, but hindsight is a wonderful thing.

I still do have some money to spend, but am very unlikely to do so this week.

What i would really like to see is a market climb tomorrow and an opportunity to make some money by selling calls on anything that remains uncovered.

Slowly, that’s happening, but “slowly” is the key word.


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