Week In Review – September 5 – 9, 2016

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

September 5 – 9, 2016

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
1  /  1 0 1 1   /   0 1  /   0 0 6

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

September 5 – 9, 2016

Up until today, it was looking like any other week we’ve seen after the post-Brexit euphoria.

That is, basically nothing to report and very little actually happening.

Then came Friday and a little bit of a meltdown.

Last week, i said that the market showed no character.

This week, if it did have any character, it was the kind that would run for the doors or hide underneath the bed and do so for no reason, at all.

Still, for some odd reason, I found a reason to open a new position and did so during the final 3 hours of trading for the week.

That might be even more odd.

That new position was 0.6% higher, while the adjusted S&P 500 was 2.5% lower for the week and the unadjusted S&P 500 was 2.4% lower.

The new position out-performed the unadjusted S&P 500 by 2.9% and the unadjusted S&P 500 by 3.0%.

For me, it was actually a good week from a trading perspective.

There were 6 ex-dividend positions, one rollover, an assignment and a closed out position.

Unfortunately, there was also an expired position that will now be looking for an opportunity to generate some income.

What was shaping up to be a good week on the bottom line also fell apart on Friday, as the market tumbled.

Existing positions still managed to beat the market by an unusually large 1.8%, but were still 0.6% lower on the week.

With the closing of the old MolyCorp position, the performance of positions closed in
2016 got quite a hit. Additionally, the accounting for the closed EMC position is a little complex, as the spin off entity is accounted for separately and remains open.

With that said, positions closed in 2016 have gone from a 279% out-performance to a % under-performance.

Those positions are now 2.8% lower, while the comparable performance for the S&P 500 during the same holding periods has been 6.8% higher. That represents a -141.3%% difference in return on closed positions. 


Well, this turned out to be an interesting week, thanks to a single day.

There really wasn’t very much to account for the broad sell-off on Friday, except maybe for exhaustion.

I’m sure we’ll hear about some technical signal and we’ll certainly hear the phrase “profit taking,” but there was still no tangible reason for the fear expressed today.

Still it was fairly orderly, as we’re still about 20 points higher on the S&P 500 from where we were when the market first sent into its Brexit decline.

All in all, I was happy for the way the week went, though.

While the market went lower, that’s reversible.

What can’t be taken away are the dividends and the premiums for the week and some cash generation from the assigned and closed positions.

The one new position opened this week with just 3 hours left in trading, was specifically to either capture the dividend or capture the premium.

maybe both.

If only the premium is captured due to early assignment, I thought that the ROI for a single day of holding was enough to warrant the trade, although in this case, I would rather get the dividend, as well and have the oppportunity to do something else with those shares next Friday.

We still have another 10 days or so to go until the next FOMC meeting, so I’m not certain that Friday’s sell-off will be the last between now and 2 PM on that Wednesday.

Even with some money in cash reserves, I may be hesitant to put any more on the line.

To some degree, it’s a little easier sitting on the sidelines next week because there are another 5 ex-dividend positions and  and 5 expiring positions that at the moment show some promise for a combination of assignments and rollovers.

That may be enough to keep me occupied, although I thought the same this week and look what happened.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  HPQ

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:   none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  BBY

Calls Rolled over, taking profits
, into the monthly cycle
: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  MRO

Calls Expired:  ANF

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: EMC

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions   BBY (9/9 $0.28), GM (9/7 $0.38), GME (9/7 $0.37), MOS (9/6 $0.275), WY (9/7 $0.31), COH (9/8 $0.33)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: HPQ (9/12 $0.12), M (9/13 $0.38), NEM (9/13 $0.025), BBBY (9/14 $0.125), JOY (9/15 $0.01)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Daily Market Update – September 9, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update – September 9, 2016 (7:30 AM)


The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: MRO

Rollovers: ANF

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:    BBY (9/9 $0.28), GM (9/7 $0.38), GME (9/7 $0.37), MOS (9/6 $0.275), WY (9/7 $0.31), COH (9/8 $0.33)

The following are ex-dividend next week:  HPQ (9/12 $0.12), M (9/13 $0.38), NEM (9/13 $0.025), BBBY (9/14 $0.125), JOY (9/15 $0.01)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

.


Daily Market Update – September 8, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update – September 8, 2016 (Close)


It didn’t take too long to make a trade yesterday, but there’s wasn’t much reason to think that today would be any different.

The trade yesterday wasn’t really expected, either, as the market nor the stock had any particular movement.

That’s just been the  pattern for the past month, although some individual stocks have had some eye popping moves, mostly on the heels of earnings.

The market, though, has been mostly stuck in quicksand.

It doesn’t look as if there’s too much reason for that to change for what remains of this week and maybe not too much reason next week, as most are looking another week into the future, as the FOMC convenes.

This morning came a lone voice who not only doubted a rate increase in September, but also doubted one in December.

Most everyone else fully expects one to come at least by September.

If that lonely guy is right, I suspect that the market will quit its celebrating the continuance of cheap money and finally start what’s wrong with the money making machine that’s supposed to be our economy.

If rates don’t move higher in September, there may still be some partying ahead, but at some point someone is going to start asking the questions that are really long overdue.

That same person might ask aloud why the stock market has reacted positively when oil has moved higher.

Those two questions are a bad combination if anyone stops to think about it.

With trading volume still so low, there is time to think about those things.

This morning the futures were again flat and some may be scratching their heads to ask questions, but it doesn’t seem likely that anything severe is in the immediate works.

At this point, I’ll be happy if I can get my 2 expiring positions to either contribute to my weekly income flow or contribute to cash reserves.

One of each might be especially nice.

I did try to roll one of those positions over, but no luck. The other, barring a big decline tomorrow, will at least be returning some money to the cash pile

NOTE:  For those owning shares of EMC, the Dell deal closed yesterday and EMC no longer exists as a company.

In return, you received $24.05 per share in cash and you will see a new holding, Dell Technologies, Class V (DVMT).

You received 0.11146 shares of the new DVMT for each share of EMC. DVMT is a “tracking stock” for the 80% of shares of VMWare that were owned by EMC.

The tracking shares were priced at $48, so the value for each share received was about $5.35, meaning that the price paid by Dell for each share of EMC was $29.40.

That’s pretty straightforward.

What’s not straightforward, yet, and the CBOE hasn’t shed too much light on things, is what kind of adjustment exists on DVMT options, as they are trading on an adjusted basis. 

At this moment, I don’t know what the “deliverable” is on a DVMT contract, The deliverable is how many shares must be delivered for each contract.

I’ll keep checking the CBOE for any update 

Daily Market Update – September 8, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update – September 8, 2016 (7:30 AM)


It didn’t take too long to make a trade yesterday, but there’s not much reason to think that today would be any different.

The trade yesterday wasn’t really expected, either, as the market nor the stock had any particular movement.

That’s just been the  pattern for the past month, although some individual stocks have had some eye popping moves, mostly on the heels of earnings.

The market, though, has been mostly stuck in quicksand.

It doesn’t look as if there’s too much reason for that to change for what remains of this week and maybe not too much reason next week, as most are looking another week into the future, as the FOMC convenes.

This morning came a lone voice who not only doubted a rate increase in September, but also doubted one in December.

Most everyone else fully expects one to come at least by September.

If that lonely guy is right, I suspect that the market will quit its celebrating the continuance of cheap money and finally start what’s wrong with the money making machine that’s supposed to be our economy.

If rates don’t move higher in September, there may still be some partying ahead, but at some point someone is going to start asking the questions that are really long overdue.

That same person might ask aloud why the stock market has reacted positively when oil has moved higher.

Those two questions are a bad combination if anyone stops to think about it.

With trading volume still so low, there is time to think about those things.

This morning the futures are again flat and some may be scratching their heads to ask questions, but it doesn’t seem likely that anything severe is in the immediate works.

At this point, I’ll be happy if I can get my 2 expiring positions to either contribute to my weekly income flow or contribute to cash reserves.

One of each might be especially nice.

Daily Market Update – September 7, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update – September 7, 2016 (Close)


Once the world fully expresses its outrage over the rumored loss of the phone jack in the new iPhone 7, which we learned this afternoon was reality and not rumor, we may have the chance to return to business, as normal.

It looked, though, as if the market was already set to do that, as the futures are trading unchanged.

Unchanged is the usual and today turned out to be the usual.

That comes after a small gain yesterday that made it look as if the day was actually filled with some activity, when it wasn’t.

Yesterday was another day of very narrow range and had very little going on, even as there were some buyout stories that could have given the market a boost.

But basically, the market didn’t care about too much yesterday and it really didn’t care about much of anything today, except for energy and for a change energy had no impact on the market.

There isn’t too much reason for the stock market to care about anything today or for the rest of the week, although like last week, there could easily be an outlier day that just as easily gets reversed the next day.

For now, nothing much matters until the FOMC meets.

In just 2 weeks we’ll find out whether they will be ahead of the seeable curve or whether even they can’t yet see where the curvature begins.

While i think it might be a good idea to not be ahead of the curve this time around, it’s a reasonable guarantee that no one on the FOMC would be of that belief.

So, we’ll find out in 2 weeks whether rates are nudging higher and just how markets will react, as they have made it pretty clear that while accepting an interest rate increase, they don’t want one now.

Either way, markets will get over it.

Yesterday, the odds of a September increase went lower, as there was some disappointing ISM news.

For the next 2 weeks every little piece of data will be looked at individually, whereas the data should be looked at in their totality.

The biggest pieces, Employment and GDP, are painting opposing pictures and defeating logic at every turn, so it may not be a bad idea to look more closely for any clues about what is really going on in the economy in some of the lesser indicators.

And then hope that you’re right.

The FOMC wasn’t in December 2015, but it’s hard to argue that anyone paid a price for that mis-read, even as the market had its first 10% correction in years.

That correction was only a blip, now that we can look back over the past 6 months.

I did try to get some trades in yesterday, but they were both rollovers and the trades went unrequited.

I had hoped to be able to have the chance to try again today and the opportunity did arise to rollover the Best Buy position that goes ex-dividend on Friday.

Now, after having secured some additional premium, I hope that the position does get assigned early.

Even though there are now just 2 trading days left to the week, I’m still not closing the door on any new positions, but with all of those
ex-dividend positions, one rollover and possibly one assignment, it may again be time to head back to the beach.