Daily Market Update – September 19, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update – September 19, 2016 (7:30 AM)


This could be a big week, but there’s really no telling in which direction things might go.

It’s also possible that this past week already brought all of the wavering we could summon, as markets went back and forth on nothing at all.

This week, at least we have a central focus.

That’s Wednesday’s FOMC Statement release.

“Will they or won’t they?” is what’s on everyone’s minds, with guessing as to the immediate response being the second thing on everyone’s minds.

Since the FOMC is not likely to want to be perceived as being reactive in implementation of fiscal policy, there shouldn’t be too much surprise if they do raise rates this week.

Based on how markets have reacted whenever anyone of importance said anything resembling a hawkish stance, we could reasonably guess that an increase this week would result in a large sell-off.

But who knows?

The more things seem obvious, the less obvious they turn out to be.

With 3 assignments last week, I have more cash than I’ve had for a while and I’m not very anxious to spend it.

While I wouldn’t begrudge a nice move higher, at this point, I’d rather find some newly created bargains to purchase with that cash.

Alternatively, if the market does move higher, I wouldn’t mind selling some more call contracts, but I also wouldn’t mind some more positions getting closer to their strike prices and perhaps becoming potential assignments, as well.

That’s a change in tone for me.

While I’m always expecting some kind of sell-off, that hasn’t kept me from deploying cash, nor has it prompted me to raise cash.

This time may be a little bit different, as I really wouldn’t mind having more cash on hand.

I certainly wouldn’t want to stay  that way and I certainly would want to put cash to work, but at some point, unless the economy shows some reason to justify an increase in interest rates, there has to be some fallout, particularly if oil does start to move higher.

That would especially be the case if OPEC could ever get its act together and cause the price of oil to rise because of a decrease in supply.

For now, I’ll be glued to the screen until the mid-point of this week as the FOMC Statement is finally released.

This morning, markets are somewhat positive. You would think that they would be tentative, but logically, you would have thought that to be the case last week, too.

Dashboard – September 19 – 23, 2016

 

 

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:   Big week ahead, with futures pointing toward a higher open, despite some considerable risk of the FOMC moving ahead with a rise in interest rates.

TUESDAY:   Markets squandered a big gain yesterday, but there was no reason for that gain in the first place. The FOMC meeting starts today and expectations are for no rate hike, but watch for the wording in the statement.

WEDNESDAY: The Bank of Japan’s overnight policy re-direction may now pave the way for US markets to go higher, as futures are guardedly higher ahead of today’s FOMC Statement release.

THURSDAY:  Following yesterday’s boosts from the Bank of Japan and the FOMC, there may still be some rally left, as traders believe that are 3 more months ahead of cheap money to play with.

FRIDAY:. Markets may need to take a rest today and certainly couldn’t be blamed if they did.


 

 



 

                                                                                                                                           

Today's TradesCash-o-Meter

 

 

 





 “SNEAK PEEK AT NEXT WEEK” APPEARS ON FRIDAYS

Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Summary

  

Weekend Update – September 18, 2016

 

Everyone has been there at one time or another in their lives.

Maybe several times a day.

There is rarely a shortage of things and events that don’t serve or conspire to make us crazy.

Recurring threats of a government shutdown; the 2016 Presidential campaign; the incompetence in the executive suites of Twitter (TWTR) and pumpkin flavored everything, for example.

I add the FOMC to that list.

Although his annual Twitter campaign against pumpkin flavored everything has yet to start this year, there is scant evidence that Marek Fuchs, a wonderful MarketWatch columnist, has actually gone crazy.

However, as opposed to the hyperbole that typically characterizes the situation when someone is claiming to be made “crazy,” traders may be actually manifesting something bordering on the insane as members of the Federal Reserve toy with the fragile flowers they are in real life.

The alternating messages that have come from those members, who at one time, not too long ago, were barely seen, much less heard, have unsettled traders as the clock is ticking away toward this coming week’s FOMC Statement release.

Couple their deeply seated. but questionably held opinions regarding the timing of an interest rate increase, with the continuing assertion that the FOMC will be “data dependent,” and a stream of conflicting data and if you are prone to be driven crazy, you will be driven crazy.

Or, at the very least, prone to run on sentences.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha

 

 

Week in Review – September 12 – 26. 2016

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review


September 12 – 16, 2016

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
0  /  1 0 1 3   /   0 2   /   0 0 6

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

September 12 – 16, 2016

This was an interesting week and it gave a loud and clear message.

That message is that everyone still wants cheap money to stay cheap at least for another 3 months.

What the week had was lots of ups and downs as there is clearly a lot of unease out there.

I know that I feel that unease on my end of things.

There was one new position opened this week and it didn’t fare too well, as oil headed lower, but it still has been my go to posiotion for the year.

That position was down 1.0% for the week, while the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500 were both 0.6% higher.

Existing positions also felt the decrease in energy and commodity prices and they were actually down 0.2% on the week.

With 3 newly closed positions for the week the 2016 closed positions are 0.9% lower, due to the liquidation of the MolyCorp position and would otherwise be 6.6% higher, well ahead of the S&P 500, but the rules in accounting have to be applied.

It was an interesting week and I’m usually not one to try and spin things, but I did end the week fairly pleased, even as existing positions were 0.2% lower.

That’s because the week had 5 ex-dividend positions and the opportunity to rollover the one new position opened on the week.

More importantly, there were 3 assignments and I was happy to add to the cash reserves in the week ahead of the FOMC meeting.

That made me so happy, I was even willing to overlook the 2 expired positions.

That’s also because I think both of those have good prospects for the sale of new call positions and I was glad not to have to pay to buy back the expiring positions.

With cash in hand for next week, I really don’t know if I want to spend any before Wednesday’s meeting.

The move could be explosive in either direction and I don’t think I want to take a chance on risking more money at a time when the FOMC has been sending so many mixed signals.

I would certainly take any opportunity to sell calls on uncovered positions before next Wednesday, but on not too keen on much else.

What I am keen on is getting over this ridiculousness and all of the ado about 0.25%

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  MRO puts

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:   none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: MRO (9/30)

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  HPQ, IP, STX

Calls Expired:  DOW, GME

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: EMC

Calls Closed to Take P
rofits
: none

Ex-dividend Positions   HPQ (9/12 $0.12), M (9/13 $0.38), NEM (9/13 $0.025), BBBY (9/14 $0.125), JOY (9/15 $0.01)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:LVS (9/20 $0.72)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Daily Market Update – September 16, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update – September 16, 2016 (7:30 AM)


The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: HPQ, IP, STX

Rollovers: MRO (puts)

Expirations:   DOW, GME

The following were ex-dividend this week:    HPQ (9/12 $0.12), M (9/13 $0.38), NEM (9/13 $0.025), BBBY (9/14 $0.125), JOY (9/15 $0.01)

The following are ex-dividend next week:  LVS (9/20 $0.72)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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