Weekend Update – August 7, 2016

In the 57 years since “The Day the Music Died,” the S&P 500 has risen about 3800%

What’s not to like about that?

Among those perishing in that February plane crash was “The Big Bopper” whose signature hit song “Chantilly Lace” was telling the world what he liked. 

While it may be cute when a child gives you that kind of information, not much good is to come when an adult lets free with those unfiltered thoughts.

It may be even worse when they act upon those thoughts that no one needed to hear in the first place.

The Big Bopper’s album cover makes the words of the song even more creepy, but there must have been strains of that admittedly catchy tune playing as investors were awaiting last Friday’s Employment Situation Report.

Of course, as we all know, there is nothing creepy at all about being in love with money or letting it know what you especially like about it.

It was pretty obvious what investors wanted and liked when the data was released and seemed to put a nail into the shockingly low number of new jobs reported back in June 2016.

I don’t know what the equivalent is to the obligatory “chantilly lace” in the song, but the market definitely decided it was time to put a pretty face on the impending likelihood of an interest rate increase.

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Weekend Update – July 3, 2016

We often have an odd way of accepting someone’s decision to change their mind.

A change of mind is frequently thought to be a sign of a poorly conceived conviction or a poorly conceived initial position.

Few politicians change their minds because they know that they will be assailed for weakness or for having caved in, as opposed to having given careful and objective thought to a complex topic.

Of course, then there’s also the issue of a politician changing their mind simply for political expediency or political advantage.

That kind of distasteful behavior, although perhaps pragmatic, just stokes our cynicism.

We sometimes get upset at a child’s frequent changes of mind and want to instill some consistency that ultimately stifles ongoing thought and assessment.

At the same time, as parents, we are often faced with alternating opinions as to whether we need to be consistent in application and formulation of the rules we set or whether there should be some ability to make the rules a living entity that is responsive to events and circumstances.

When I was a child, I attended a “Yeshiva,” which is a Jewish version of a parochial school. We were taught to abide by Biblical laws, include the law regarding Kosher foods.

One day, when I was about 10 years old, I found a package of ham in our refrigerator and confronted my mother about the blatant violation of a sacred rule.

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Weekend Update – May 29, 2016

We’ve all been part of one of those really disingenuous hugs.

Whether on the giving or the receiving side, you just know that there’s nothing really good coming out of it and somehow everyone ends up feeling dirty and cheapened.

Every now and then someone on the receiving end of one of those disingenuous hugs believes it’s the real thing and they are led down the wrong path or become oblivious to what is really going on.

This week the market gave a warm embrace and hug to the notion that the FOMC might actually be announcing an interest rate hike as early as its June 2016 meeting.

The chances of that even being a possibility was slight, at the very best, just 2 or 3 weeks ago. Since then, however, there has been more and more hawkish talk coming even from the doves.

The message being sent out right now is that the FOMC is like a hammer that sees everything as a nail. In that sense, every bit of economic news justifies tapping on the brakes.

Traditionally, those brakes were there to slow down an economy that was heating up and would then lead to inflation.

Inflation was once evil, but now we recognize that there are shades of grey and maybe even Charles Manson had some good qualities.

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