Aug132013

Carl Icahn Spells the End of an Era at Apple

Daily Market Update

This afternoon came news via a simple 140 space statement that Carl Icahn currently had “a large position” in Apple (AAPL).

By all accounts his discussion with CEO Tim Cook were cordial. Icahn himself, in another 140 space blast referred to it as “nice,” and he anticipated speaking to Cook again shortly.

I currently own Apple shares that somewhat surprisingly weren’t assigned away from me last week in an effort to grab the dividend. Considering that shares were trading at about $465 prior to the ex-dividend and the strike price sold was $450, my expectation had been that assignment was a certainty. Especially since option premiums were no longer showing any time premium with such a deep in the money option.

But as many know when it comes to Apple stock, rational thought isn’t always a hallmark of ownership.

I still think back to a comment made to an earlier Seeking Alpha article I had written in May 2012, when Apple was trading at about $575

“I guess it’s hard to not have a certain bias towards a company that has turned $30,000 of your dollars into $600,000 and may if things go right turn it into a $1,000,000.”

I always wondered whether that individual had taken interim profits or whether subsequent to May 2012 had secured some profits as Apple dropped some 200 points. The fact that its author was a CPA wasn’t lost upon me.

At the time, I thought that an investing strategy of hoping to turn $30,000 into $1,000,000 was irrational, just as turning $600,000 into $1,00,00 was irrational.

What was abundantly clear, as I took a cynical view of Apple shares in repeated articles when analysts were calling for a $1,000 stock price was that emotion was at work among many investors. Part of the emotion was the fervent belief that Apple could only keep innovating and would always be an aspirational product with great margins.

However, one refrain that repeatedly was played was that Apple shares were destined to go much higher, based on an absurdly low price to earnings ratio.

The contention was that one the market starting placing a value on Apple shares more consistent with other technology stocks, Apple would soar far above its current level.

Of course, the seemingly rational analysis dismissed the fact that the market may in fact, have been rational in giving Apple a P/E in the 12 range, just like any well regarded retailer.

A retailer? Apple is a retailer and not a technology company? Granted, it is no longer “Apple Computer,” but why should Apple be considered anything but a technology company?

That’s where Carl Icahn comes in.

Despite his recent foray into Dell Computer (DELL), his history as an activist shareholder has not included many companies in the technology arena.

Icahn refers to Apple as being “undervalued” but he isn’t looking at a low P/E to buttress his opinion. He is looking at a continuing large cash position that he envisions as a means of expanding the already large share buyback, that to many has already been the source of Apple strength going from its near term lows to $450.

This is not a case of finding fault with leadership, this is not a case of someone seeking to prevent shareholders from being robbed blind in an insider buyout deal. Apple is very different from Dell in so many ways.

This is all about leveraging cash, without regard to product pipeline and without regard to product margins. This isn’t about cutting expenses or changing direction. It is as pure as you can get – it is about cash.

Icahn cares nothing about this company other than for the cash it holds. Cash which is unleveraged isn’t worth very much to him or anyone else. It certainly adds nothing to a company’s P/E.

Icahn cares nothing about this company other than for the cash it holds. Cash which is unleveraged isn’t worth very much to him or anyone else. It certainly adds nothing to a company’s P/E. It’s time to face the fact that the stock market has been entirely rational in assigning Apple the P/E it has for these past years. It was not going to ever be considered a technology company again. It is a retailer with a narrow range of products which are bought at the whims of a fickle consumer.

While not terribly different from David Einhorn’s earlier attempt to wiggle cash out of the Apple coffers, Icahn is relentless and scrappy. What starts as perhaps a nice discussion can quickly go elsewhere.

While there is a quick pop in Apple shares in the aftermath of the announcement and while I anticipate shares to move even higher, this is the end for the Apple that you knew and loved. It wasn’t the death of Steve Jobs, but rather the indirect impact of his absence that spells the end, as Apple becomes like so many other companies simply nothing more than a vessel for someone that will have as limited interest as a pedestrian day trader.

While I’ve believed that Apple was an eminently good trading stock once in went down below the $450 level in February 2013, I think that in the very near term its suitability as a trade is even further enhanced, despite the large move higher this afternoon.

In fact, in the case of Apple, I would even consider the rare decision to purchase shares without immediate and concomitant sale of call options.

As long as Carl Icahn is on your side, you may as well consider him in the same vein as those who warn that you should “never fight the Fed,”  even if you believe Apple is too large for even Carl Icahn to take on. That’s because this is now also a new era of cooperative behavior (against Bill Ackman, at least), where the big boys are capable of joining forces these days and will do so like vultures when there’s cash to be had.

The only caveat is that it’s not likely that you’ll enjoy dreams of turning $30,000 into a $1,000,00 and so I would be all for taking profits wherever they present themselves.

 

Jul202013

Weekend Update – July 21, 2013

Weekend Update

This week may have marked the last time Ben Bernanke sits in front of far less accomplished inquisitors in fulfilling his part of the obligation to provide congressional testimony in accordance with law.

The Senate, which in general is a far more genteel and learned place was absolutely fawning over the Federal Reserve Chairman who is as good at playing close to the vest as anyone, whether its regarding divulging a time table for the feared “tapering” or an indication of whether he will be leaving his position.

If anything should convince Bernanke to sign up for another round it would be to see how long the two-faced good will last and perhaps give himself the opportunity to remind his detractors just how laudatory they had been. But I can easily understand his taking leave and enjoying the ticker tape, or perhaps the “taper tick” parade that is due him.

But in a week when Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and Bernanke had opportunities to move the markets with their appearances, neither said anything of interest, nor anything that could be mis-interpreted.

Instead, at the annual CNBC sponsored “Delivering Alpha Conference” the ability of individuals such as Jim Chanos and Nelson Peltz to move individual shares was evident. What is also evident is that based upon comparative performance thus far in 2013, there aren’t likely to be many ticker tape parades honoring hedge fund managers and certainly no one is going to honor an index.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or “PEE” categories. There are many potential earnings related trades this week beyond those listed in this article for those interested in that kind of trade. (see details).

A portion of this week’s selections reflect the recently wounded, but certainly not mortally, from recent disappointing earnings. While there may not be any victory tours coming anytime soon for some of them, it’s far too short sighted to not consider the recent bad news as a stepping stone for short term opportunism.

In terms of absolute dollars lost, it’s hard to imagine the destruction of market capitalization and personal wealth at the hands of Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC) and eBay (EBAY). While no one is writing an epitaph for eBay, there are no shortage of obituary writers for Microsoft and Intel. However, although most all businesses will someday go that path, I don’t think that any of that triumvirate are going to do so anytime soon, although Microsoft’s nearly 11% drop on Friday was more than the option market anticipated. It was also more than an innocent cough and may not be good for Steve Ballmer’s health.

Since my timeframe is usually short, although I do currently have shares of Intel that will soon pass their one year anniversary, I don’t think their demise or even significantly more deterioration in share price will be anytime soon. All offer better value and appealing option premiums for the risk of a purchase. Additionally, both Intel and Microsoft have upcoming dividends during the August cycle that simply adds to the short term appeal. My eBay shares were assigned on Friday, but I have been an active buyer in the $50-52.50 range and welcomed its return to that neighborhood.

I currently own some shares of Apple (AAPL) and sold some $450 August 17, 2013 calls in anticipation of its upcoming earnings. While I normally prefer the weekly options, the particular shares had an entry of $445 and haven’t earned their keep yet from cumulative option premiums. The monthly option instead offered greater time protection from adverse price action, while still getting some premium and perhaps a dividend, as well. However, with earnings this week, the more adventurous may consider the sentiment being expressed in the options market that is implying a move of approximately 5% upon earnings. Even after Friday’s 1% drop following some recent strength, I found it a little surprising at how low the put premiums are compared to call options, indicating that perhaps there is some bullish sentiment in anticipation of earnings. I simply take that as a sign of the opposite and would expect further price deterioration.

I’m always looking to buy or add shares of Caterpillar (CAT). I just had some shares assigned in order to capture the dividend. After Chanos‘ skewering of the company and its rapid descent as a direct result, I was cheering for it to go down a bit further so that perhaps shares wouldn’t be assigned early. No such luck, even after such piercing comments as “they are tied to the wrong products, at the wrong time.” I’m not certain, but he may have borrowed that phrase from last year when applied to Hewlett Packard (HPQ). For me, the various theses surrounding dependence on China or the criticisms of leadership have meant very little, as Caterpillar has steadfastly traded in a well defined range and have consistently offered option premiums upon selling calls, as well as often providing an increasingly healthy dividend. To add a bit to the excitement, however, Caterpillar does report earnings this week, so some consideration may be given to the backdoor path to potential ownership through the sale of put options.

While Chanos approached his investment thesis from the short side, Nelson Peltz made his case for Pepsico’s (PEP) purchase of Mondelez (MDLZ). My shares of Mondelez were assigned today thanks to a price run higher as Peltz spoke. I never speculate on the basis of takeover rumors and am not salivating at the prospect of receiving $35-$38 per share, as Peltz suggested would be an appropriate range for a, thus far, non-receptive Pepsico to pay for Mondelez ownership. Despite the general agreement that margins at Mondelez are low, even by industry standards, it has been trading ideally for call option writers and I would consider repurchasing shares just to take advantage of the option premiums.

Fastenal (FAST) is just one of those companies that goes about its business without much fanfare and it’s shares are still depressed after offering some reduced guidance and then subsequently reporting its earnings. It goes ex-dividend this week and offers a decent monthly option premium during this period of low volatility. Without signs of industrial slowdowns it is a good place to park assets while awaiting for some sanity to be restored to the markets.

Although I’ve never been accused of having fashion sense Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) and Michael Kors (KORS) are frequently alluring positions, although always carrying downside risk even when earnings reports are not part of the equation. I have been waiting for Kors to return to the $60 level and it did show some sporadic weakness during the past week, but doggedly stayed above that price.

Abercrombie and Fitch is always a volatile position, but offers some rewarding premiums, as long as the volatility does strike and lead to a prolonged dip. It reports earnings on August 14, 2013 and may also provide some data from European sales and currency impacts prior to that. Kors also reports earnings during the AUgust cycle and ant potential purchases of either of these shares must be prepared for ownership into earnings if weekly call contracts sold on the positions are not assigned.

Finally, it’s hard to find a stock that has performed more poorly than Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF). Although no one has placed blame on its leadership, in fact, they have been lauded for expense controls during demand downturns, it didn’t go unnoticed that shares rallied when the CEO announced his upcoming retirement. It also didn’t go unnoticed that China, despite being in a relative downturn, purchased a large portion of the nickel, a necessary ingredient for steel, available on the London commodity market. For the adventurous, Cliffs reports earnings this week and seems to have found some more friendly confines at the $16 level. The option market expects a 9% move in either direction. A downward move of that amount or less could result in a 1% ROI for the week, if selling put options. I suspect the move will be higher.

Traditional Stocks: Caterpillar, eBay, Intel. Microsoft, Mondelez

Momentum Stocks: Abercrombie and Fitch, Michael Kors

Double Dip Dividend: Fastenal (ex-div 7/24 $0.25)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: Apple (7/23 PM), Cliffs Natural Resources (7/25 PM)

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. Some of the above selections may be sent to Option to Profit subscribers as actionable Trading Alerts, most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts. Alerts are sent in adjustment to and consideration of market movements, in an attempt to create a healthy income stream for the week with reduction of trading risk.

Disclosure: I am long AAPL, FAST, CAT, CLF, INTC. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

 

May192013

Weekend Update – May 19, 2013

Weekend Update

Shades of 1999.

I’m not certain that I understand the chorus of those claiming that our current market reminds them of 1999.

Mind you, I’m as cautious, maybe much more so than the next guy and have been awaiting some kind of a correction for more than 2 months now, but I just don’t see the resemblance.

Much has also been made of the fact that the S&P 500 is now some 12% above its 200 Day Moving Average, which in the past has been an untenable position, other than back when sock puppets were ruling the markets. Back then that metric was breached for years.

Back in 1999 and the years preceding it, the catalyst was known as the “dot com boom” or “dot com bubble” or the “dot com bust,” depending on what point you entered. The catalyst was clear, perhaps best exemplified by the ubiquitous sock puppet and the short lived PSINet Stadium, back then home to the world Champion Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens survived, perhaps even thrived since then, while PSINet was a casualty of the excesses of the era. When it was all said and done you could stuff PSINet’s assets into a sock.

During the height of that era the catalyst was thought to be in endless supply. But in the current market, what is the catalyst? Most would agree that if anything could be identified it would likely be the Federal Reserve’s policy of Quantitative Easing.

But as last week’s rumor of its upcoming end and then an article suggesting that the Federal Reserve already has an exit plan, the catalyst is clearly not thought to be unending. Unless the economy is much worse than we all believe it to be the fuel will be depleted sooner rather than later.

Now if you’re really trying to find a year comparable to this one, look no further than 1995, when the market ended the year 34% higher and never even had anything more than a 2% correction.

If llke me, and you’re selling covered options; let’s hope not.

For me, this Friday marked the end of the May 2013 option cycle. As I had been cautious since the end of February and transitioned into more monthly option contract sales, I am faced with a large number of assignments. Considering that the market has essentially been following a straight line higher having so many assignments isn’t the best of all worlds.

While I now find myself with lots of available cash the prevailing feeling that I have is that there is a need to protect those assets more than before in anticipation of some kind of correction, or at least an opportunity to discover some temporary bargains.

This week I have more than the usual number of potential new positions, however, I’m unlikely to commit wholeheartedly to their purchase, as I would like to maintain about a 40% cash position by the end of next week. I’m also more likely to continue looking at monthly option sales rather than the weekly contracts.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or the “PEE” category (see details). Additionally, although the height of earnings season has passed there may still be some more opportunity to sell well out of the money puts prior to earnings on some reasonably high profile names..

There’s no doubt that the tone for the week was changed by the down to earth utterances of David Tepper, founder of the Appaloosa Hedge Fund. He has a long term enviable record and when he speaks, which isn’t often, people do take notice. Apparently markets do, as well.

However, among the things that he mentioned was that he had lightened up on his position in Apple (AAPL). It didn’t take long for others to chime in and Apple shares fell substantially even when the market was going higher. Although I was waiting for Apple to get back into the $410-420 range, the rebound in share price following news of reduced positions by high profile investors is a good sign and I believe warrants consideration toward the purchase of new shares.

I recently purchased shares of Sunoco Logistics (SXL) in order to capture its generous and reliable dividend. My shares were assigned this past Friday, but I’m willing to repurchase, even at a higher price and even with a monthly option contract to tie me down. In the oil services business it is a lesser known entity and trades with low volume, however, it will share in sector strength, just in a much more low profile manner.

Pfizer (PFE) is another stock that was recently purchased in order to capture it’s dividend and premium and was also assigned this past week. However, it is among the “defensive” stocks that I think would fare relatively well regardless of near term market direction. Like many others that do offer weekly options, my inclination is to consider the selling monthly contracts for the time being.

While healthcare has certainly already had its time in the sun in 2013 and Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) has had its share of that glory, after some recent tumult in its price and most recently its next day reversal of a strong move the previous day, I find the option premium appealing. However, as opposed to Pfizer, which I’m more inclined to consider a monthly option, Bristol Myers has too much downside potential for me to want to commit for longer periods.

Although I already own shares of Petrobras (PBR) and am not a big fan of adding additional shares after such a strong climb higher off of its rapidly achieved lows, Petrobras recently and quietly had quite an achievement. WHile everyone was talking about Apple’s $17 Billion bond offering that had about $50 Billion in bids, Petrobras just closed an $11 Billion offering with more than $40 Billion in bids.

Caterpillar (CAT), which I also currently own, is a perennial member of my portfolio. To a very large degree it has been recently held hostage to rumors of contraction and slowing in the Chinese economy. It has, however, shown great resiliency at the current price level and has been an excellent vehicle upon which to sell call options.

As shown in the table above, I’ve owned shares of Caterpillar on 11 separate occasions in less than a year. While the price has barely moved in that period, the net result of the in and out trades, as a result of share assignments has been a gain in excess of 35%.

The more ambiguity and equivocation there is in understanding the direction of the Chinese economy the better it has been to own Caterpillar as it just bounces around in a fairly well defined price range, making it an ideal situation for covered call strategies.

Continuing the theme of shares that I currently own, but am considering adding more shares, is British Petroleum (BP). With much of its Deepwater Horizon liabilities either behind it or well defined, shares appear to have a floor. However, in the past year, that has already been the case, as my experience with British Petroleum ownership has paralleled that of Caterpillar in both the number of separate times owning shares and in return – only better.

Of course, better than either Caterpillar or British Petroleum has been Chesapeake Energy (CHK). I’ve owned it 18 times in a year. It too has had much of its liability removed as Aubrey McClendon has left the scene and it is already well known that Chesapeake will be selling assets under a degree of duress. With its turnaround on Thursday and dip below $20, I am ready to add even more shares.

I’ve probably not owned Conoco Phillips (COP) as much as I would have imagined over the past year probably As a result of owning British Petroleum and Chesapeake Energy so often. Shares do go ex-dividend this week which always adds to the appeal, particularly when I’m in a defensive mode.

Salesforce.com (CRM) was a recommendation last week. I did make that purchase and subsequently had shares assigned. This week it reports earnings and as many of the earnings related trades that I prefer, it offers what I believe to be a good option premium even in the event of a large downward move. In this case a 1% return for the week may be achieved if share price doesn’t exceed 8%

Sears Holdings (SHLD) always seems like a ghost town when I enter one of its stores, although perhaps a moment of introspection would indicate that I drive shoppers away. I’m aware of other story lines revolving around Sears and its real estate holdings, but tend not to think in terms of what has been playing out a s a very, very long term potential. Instead, I like Sears as a hopefully quick earnings trade.

In a week that saw beautiful price action from Macys (M), Kohls (KSS) and others, perhaps even Sears can pull out good numbers and even provide some positive guidance. However, what appeals to me is a put sale approximately 8% below Friday’s close that could offer a 4% ROI for the month or shorter.

Another retailer, The Gap (GPS), has certainly been an example of the ability to arise from the ashes and how a brand can be revitalized. Along with it, so too can its share price. The Gap reports earnings this week and has already had an impressive price run. As opposed to most other earnings related trades, I’m not looking for a significant downward move and the market isn’t expecting such a move either. Based on some of the strong retail earnings announced this past week I think The Gap may be an outright purchase, but I would be more likely to look at a weekly option sale and hope for quick assignment of shares.

TIVO (TIVO) is one of those technologies that I’ve never adopted. Maybe that’s because I never leave the house and the television is always on and I rarely see a need to change the station. But here, too, I believe TIVO offers a good short term opportunity even if shares go down as much as 20% following Monday’s earnings release. In the event that shares go appreciably higher, it is the ideal kind of earnings trade, in that coming during the first day of a monthly option contract, it could likely be quickly closed out and the money then used for another investment vehicle.

Om the other hand, Dunkin Brands (DNKN) is definitely one of those technologies that I’ve adopted, especially when having lived in New England. Fast forward 20 years and they are now everywhere in the Mid-Atlantic and spreading across the country as their new offerings also spread waists around the country. Going ex-dividend this coming week and offering a nice monthly option premium, I may bite at more than a jelly donut. However, it is trading at the upper end of its recent price range, like all too many other stocks.

Finally, Carnival (CCL) hasn’t exactly been the recipient of much good news lately. Although it’s up from its recent woes and lows. It does report earnings at the end of the June 2013 option cycle, but it also goes ex-dividend in the first week of the cycle, in addition to a offering a reasonable option premium

Traditional Stocks: Bristol Myers, Caterpillar, Pfizer, Sunoco Logistics

Momentum Stocks: Apple, Chesapeake Energy, Petrobras

Double Dip Dividend: Carnival Line (ex-div 5/22), Conoco Phillips (ex-div 5/22), Dunkin Brands (ex-div 5/23)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: Salesforce.com (5/23 PM), Sears Holdings (5/23 AM), The Gap (5/23 PM), TIVO (5/20 PM)

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. Some of the above selections may be sent to Option to Profit subscribers as actionable Trading Alerts, most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts. Alerts are sent in adjustment to and consideration of market movements, in an attempt to create a healthy income stream for the week with reduction of trading risk.

 

 
 

May12013

Shame on you, Apple

Articles

Oh, and congratulations, too.

Shame and congratulations on you for completing the world’s most successful corporate issuance of bonds. $52 Billion in bids clamoring for $17 Billion of product.

Remember when Apple (AAPL) products had that kind of demand?

Remember when its stock had that kind of demand?

Remember, the cynics say that dividends and stock buybacks are the sort of things that you do when you can’t propel the business forward.

A few years ago, in a ruling that will forever remain controversial, the United States Supreme Court essentially ruled, that in at least a narrow definition, corporations were people.

For most purposes that designation is somewhat non-sensical, but for the all important world of campaign financing making corporations animate objects had a great benefit. Namely, the privilege of donating obscene amounts of money to political campaigns.

But along with all of the great privileges of belonging to the human race, there have to be some downsides, as well. Social obligations and the burdens and joys of human emotions come to mind.

Like Adam and Eve in the Garden of Eden, one of the very first human traits that they exhibited after they had done something very wrong and against the “rules” was to feel shame. Ironically, what they did wrong was to have eaten from “The Apple.”

This week, Apple should feel shame.

They borrowed money, as much as 75 basis points above US Treasuries in order to fund a planned $50 Billion buyback and the costs of three years worth of dividend payments.

From a business perspective, Apple should be congratulated, having found a way to satisfy increasingly noisy shareholders and hold the tax man at bay. Although I do wonder why they even had to go 75 basis points above US Treasuries, you can’t argue with the success of the initiative. You would, however, think that Apple was more credit worthy than our own government, but apparently they don’t even measure up to Microsoft (MSFT) in that regard.

While the interest payments are a deductible expense, the real beauty is that Apple is able to put cash directly and perhaps indirectly back in the hands of shareholders without the need to repatriate tons of foreign cash and pay US taxes once having done so. Of course, they also figured out a way to turn down the heat on Tim Cook, just a bit.

Having been an Apple shareholder as recently as last week, I suppose I would have lauded that move by Tim Cook, but now, I find it shameful.

Firstly, not that I expect any devastating news at Apple, but suddenly shareholders have taken a subordinate position to new bond buying stakeholders. The risk to shareholders is certainly small in that regard, but it is also certainly unnecessary.

Secondly, what happened to the ideals?

Although he was a ruthless competitor, the late Steve Jobs had ideals. First and foremost, they related to the products offered by Apple. But they also extended to the financial practices that eschewed capital markets and were ruggedly self-reliant in order to meet its corporate objectives.

While Apple still has exquisite products, among my previous critiques of the company quality of products has never been at issue, they are straying from the founder’s ideals on all counts.

While it can be safely said that the last time Apple ventured into the bond market, it did so to save itself from financial ruination, Steve Jobs had not yet returned to the company. We’ll never know whether Apple under Jobs’ leadership would have been driven to the point of desperation, but we do know that in the 25 subsequent years that source was never tapped again.

Whatever the basis for his ideals, they included a disdain for share buybacks and dividends. As recently as a 2010 shareholder meeting, Jobs stated that Apple needed to keep its cash for growth opportunities and further said that paying a dividend or buying back stock would not change the stock price. You can argue those points, but what you can’t argue is that Jobs’ idealism exchanged the illusory effects of dividends and buybacks for the real effects of stock appreciation.

So here we are. Shares had fallen in excess of $300, the pipeline appears dry and questions regarding TIm Cook’s continuing leadership have popped up.

In response, Apple has gone where the beleaguered go. They have gone the route of buybacks and dividends. Nothing terribly creative, but a step designed to quiet some of the complaints from shareholders and activists.

Yet, they went to the bond markets to get the necessary cash to perform what may in and of itself been unnecessary. By all reports they did so to avoid repatriation of foreign held cash and to avoid paying U.S. taxes upon those funds.

Remember the 2012 elections? Remember candidate Romney and the controversy surrounding his taxes? There was never a question as to whether Romney had broken the law or done anything illegal. It was an issue of his taking advantage of every loophole in the tax code that was imaginable. Not illegal, but most people innately believed that there was just something wrong about navigating a path that no one creating regulation or legislation could have imagined would exist.

Bill Gates and Warren Buffett believe that to be the case. I suppose that’s another way that Apple doesn’t measure up to Microsoft.

On its surface you know that there is something wrong when an individual can have an IRA valued in excess of $100 Million. Not because the amount is so large, but rather because of the annual contribution thresholds. For example, assuming Mr. Romney made a maximum $5,000 contribution each year for 30 years and achieved an annual 35% return, he would still only have $40 million.

Shameful.

Yet here Apple has garnered its own shame. Exploiting the tax code in a way that the average person, perhaps even investors in Apple, intuitively know is wrong. Maintaining a significant cash reserve overseas to avoid paying taxes just doesn’t pass the smell test for most people, despite being legal.

But by so doing, they are also not re-investing any significant portion of their $150 Billion cash reserve into the business, nor are they pursuing meaningful acquisitions. The money sits in a low interest environment.

Given that shameful disregard for shareholders,you could understand why there was a growing chorus for something substantive to be done.

While corporations traditionally did not have social responsibilities, that too is a burden of now joining the human race. Among the social responsibilities is to put their money to work and to pay taxes, without hiding behind the loopholes or the unanticipated escape routes found in existing regulations and legislation.

I’m not really certain whatever happened to Adam and Eve after their banishment from the Garden of Eden. Their expulsion was swift, and perhaps the entire human race paid a steep price for their actions.

I think Apple’s recent action will result in the same steep price for its shareholders as the euphoria around the offering has already disappeared. The future looks less optimistic as Apple settles into a state where they are no different from the rest and beginning to rely on smoke, mirrors and lapses in tax policy to perpetuate their leadership.

In the meantime, without anything substantive in its future, Apple will remain a trading vehicle that may offer risk to those looking at it as a long term value.

While I can’t hold Apple in esteem for their anti-social behavior, and blatant thumbing of its corporate nose at its responsibilities, I do think that if offers some exceptional short term opportunities, especially when coupled with a covered call program.

I look forward to more of those positions as shares come back down in price to the $410-420 range, which I anticipate occurring prior to next week’s ex-dividend date.

As long as they’ve already made a deal with the devil, I may as well get my piece.

 

Apr282013

Weekend Update – April 28, 2013

Weekend Update

Schadenfreude suits me just fine.

Is it really “schadefreude” when you don’t really know or see the people upon whom misfortune has been heaped?

For those that aren’t familiar with the word, “schadenfreude” is the strangely good feeling that some people derive when others fail or are subject to misfortune.

In Talmudic teaching the highest form of charity is when neither the donor nor the recipient are aware of one another’s identity. Complete ignorance raises the act of charity to a higher level.

Of course, we will never be able to answer the question of whether there is really a sound produced when a tree falls in the forest and there is no one present to lay witness. A single degree of separation can completely call into question that which seems patently obvious. Ignorance of an event can be is as if it doesn’t even exist.

Being a covered option seller, I do take some perverse pleasure and satisfaction when the market goes lower, even though I know that the vast majority of investors, especially the individual investor, fares well only when the markets are moving higher.

When I sell longer term call options, such as the monthly variety, I just love seeing the share price exceed my strike level early during the term of the contract, only to watch those gains dissipate as the term nears its end, especially if the end returns right to the strike price.

Somewhere, I just know that someone is asking themselves why they didn’t take their profits when they had the chance.

That’s pretty bad, right? But I never see that person. I’m not really certain that they even exist, except for the fact that I was once that person. To a large degree I believe that I was deeply ignorant back in those days with regard to the discipline of securing profits. These days I’ve simply added ignorance to the fortunes of those on the other end of trades to the list of things unknowable. Additionally, not knowing who they are is the highest form of ignorance.

As this past week was one that I immensely enjoyed and briefly put away my short term pessimism in order to trade at levels that reflect a more bullish tone, I’m now on the fence as to whether the bullish feeling can be sustained given what the past may be revealing.

After hitting market peaks 2 weeks ago and then alternatively going from the worst week of 2013 to one of the best weeks of 2013, I continue to believe that we are replicating the first 5 months of 2012.

So while I’m very happy with the higher tract that stocks took this past week, I’m especially happy to see assignments take place and have the cash settle in my account, to hold or to invest, as the market reveals itself.

Although I would much rather be fully invested, I really do want to see give backs of many gains at this point. Having a sizeable portion in cash and evolving from the use of weekly contracts to monthly ones, or even the occasional June 2013 cycle, makes it easy to make that wish.

If history is a guide, the last correction we experienced lasted just one month and then was completely recovered 2 months after it ended.

I can live with that, at least while cash is on the sidelines. If it happens, and assuming that it’s within tolerable levels, such as 10%, I’ll be reasonably happy, but not in a schadenfreude kind of way, although that kind of admission would certainly get me much more attention. Everyone notices the misanthropic guy and wishing that stock prices retreat may be the highest form of misanthrope, especially if it disproportionately impacts widows and orphans.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or the “PEE” category (see details). Additionally, as in previous weeks there is a greater emphasis on stocks that offer monthly contracts only, eschewing the usual preference for the relatively higher ROI of weekly options for the guarantee of premiums for a longer period in order to ride out any turbulence. Additionally, as with the previous week, we are at the height of earnings season and thus far there have been some surprises, perhaps offering more opportunity to sell well out of the money puts prior to earnings.

I really can’t recall the last time I owned shares of ExxonMobil (XOM). Although it is one of the shares that I consistently follow, it rarely has piqued my short term interest. That may be changing a bit as I look at its upcoming and increased dividend. At a time that I’m expecting to be on the precipice of a market decline that is technically driven, rather than fundamentally, I would be more inclined to limit new investments to more defensive stocks that are likely to outperform a falling market during a period of economic stability or growth.

Although Apple (AAPL) was a potential earnings related trade last week, I ultimately waited for earnings and instead purchased shares the next day. Those were assigned, but if shares open the week near the $410 level, I am interested in establishing a new position and using an out of the money monthly contract in order to have an opportunity to also secure the newly increased dividend. I believe that Apple will out-perform the market in the near term and will offer trading opportunities in addition to appealing option premiums.

With last week’s selection Cisco (CSCO) among those assigned, Oracle (ORCL) also one of last week’s potential picks went unrequited. It also under-performed Cisco as some of the networking companies were depressed following Broadcom’s (BRCM) earnings. I’ll be looking to Oracle as a potential purchase this week as well, as the technology sector may be showing some signs of catching up to the overall market with Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel (INTC) showing strength.

As news related to the Chinese economy seems to wag our own stock market, the heavy machinery titans have been slammed back and forth as what is called “news” is so often re-interpreted or presented in different lights that create an alternation between good economic news and bad economic news on a near daily basis. Very often the sector moves in unison even when the exposure to China is limited. While Joy Global (JOY) has significant exposure, PACCAR (PCAR)certainly has less so. Both have recovered a bit this past week as have Caterpillar (CAT) and Deere (DE). ALl, however, continue to trail the S&P 500 in 2013.

Petrobras (PBR) suspended its regular dividend payment in 2012. I’m somewhat embarrassed to still be holding shares priced in the $19-20 range, purchased just before a slew of bad news. Having held onto shares even as they sank as much as almost 25%, it has been clawing its way back. Among the positive signs are the recent announcement of two special dividends. With the hope for some stability in its share price after bad news regarding pricing and production issues have now been digested, it may be time to restart accumulating shares.

Last week playing earnings related trades was a very timely strategy. I don’t know if the pleasant surprises will continue, but I think there may again be some very reasonable risk-reward propositions available, as long as you don’t mind the possibility of owning shares after it’s all said and done.

Among those reporting is Facebook (FB), which despite having received an IPO allocation and currently owning shares at various price points, has become one of my favorite stocks. The existence of extended weekly options opens up many more opportunities to generate option premiums and mitigate the potential impact of sudden adverse moves in share price. At Friday’s closing price, a weekly put sale at a strike price 12.5% below the close could return a 0.7% ROI. For those more adventurous, a strike price only 9% lower could yield a 1.4% return.

Pfizer (PFE) reports earnings this week and fits into the profile that appeals to me the most when considering an earnings related trade. This past week it sustained a large price drop, which is usually the signal that clears me to sell puts on shares. However, in this case, I more likely to consider an outright purchase on shares, not only for some capital appreciation and option premium income, but also in order to capture the May 8, 2013 dividend payment.

Humana (HUM) has been on a true rollercoaster ride. As often happens with health care stocks the various interpretations of how changing legislation or pricing structure may impact share price sends the shares in irrational and alternating directions. With earnings approaching and shares down almost 10% from its 2 week ago high, it represents a potentially acceptable risk-reward offer. If it falls less than another7% the ROI is approximately 1%. That, however, is for the time remaining on a monthly contract, which makes it a little less appealing to me, but still under consideration.

Finally, I’m not certain how much longer the world needs an independent Open Table (OPEN) but it has the kind of pricing volatility at the time of earnings release to make it worth considering a purchase of shares and the sale of deep in the money calls or simply a sale of deep out of the money puts.

Traditional Stocks: ExxonMobil, Oracle, Paccar, Pfizer

Momentum Stocks: Apple, Joy Global

Double Dip Dividend: Petrobras (ex-div 4/30)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: Facebook (5/1 PM), Humana (5/1 AM), Open Table (5/2 PM)

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. Some of the above selections may be sent to Option to Profit subscribers as actionable Trading Alerts, most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts. Alerts are sent in adjustment to and consideration of market movements, in an attempt to create a healthy income stream for the week with reduction of trading risk.