Lazy or Respectful?






Dobie GrayThere was no reason for me to think that while on a cab ride going through the heart of Downtown Nashville on Tuesday, that Dobie Gray would breathe his last breathes on that same day and in that same city.


But that’s exactly what happened on that cool and damp day as I went past the famous Ryman Auditorium and saw endless pedestrians with cowboy hats and guitar cases probably sharing the same hopes and dreams, but unlikely to ever find their way into the major leagues of obituary pages, The New York Times.


Other than introducing the song “The In Crowd”, which was a bigger hit when Ramsey Lewis covered it, you may know him for his continually popular “Drift Away.”


I don’t really know him from any of his other works, but I found it poignant when after today’s closing bell, where the market dropped an additional 100 points in the last 45 minutes, Bob Pisani on CNBC referred to the market as just having “drifted away.”


Maybe Dobie was on his mind.


I’ve been a Bruce Springsteen fan for nearly 40 years and have seen him in concert a number of times and cities over that time. Along with others, I grieved when the Big Man died, but it was clear at a concert in Baltimore a few years ago that the body was a shell, while the talent and dirve were undying.


Dobie Gray just quietly drifted away.


Springsteen is an original and rarely covers other artists.


When he does it’s an indelible stamp for those that typically need no such approval or recognition.


Bob Dylan, Buddy Holly, Elvis and Pete Seeger, of course come to mind.


And Dobie Gray. 


Covering an artists work can be interpreted in two different ways.


For some, it is a sign of laziness and lack of creativity. The fear of relying on your own talents to please the ultimate judges who decide your professional fate. It is often a sign of low confidence and playing it safely.


Or, performing a cover can be the ultimate sign of respect that one artist can pay to another.


Although the cynics will also say that performing a cover version can also be the ultimate expression of self-importance as someone tries to put their own spin on a classic. It also may be an expression of opportunism, as I doubt that Ramsey Lewis covered The In Crowd as a tribute to a then small player, Dobie Gray.


Sometimes you just know a good thing when it comes along and you have to act.


But I’m not the cynical kind, unless you’re talking about life and the people who populate the environment in which the world exists.


No doubt that in Springsteen’s case he didn’t really need to draw on anyone else’s body of work. But when he did, they were doozies. Always respectful and always faithful to the vision of the artist honored.


As with Dobie Gray.


In much the same vein, I know that my approach to investing and trying to make my portfolio grow is the ultimate in laziness.


I buy the same stocks, over and over again. I call the list of stocks that I choose from my list of “Old Reliables”. No doubt that each of them was at some point put on my radar screen by someone on TV.


In all likelihood, I then followed and watched for cyclicality and the size of the reward for selling options.


In the case of Ricky Nelson, who put out the hit “Garden Party” in response to the booing he received at a concert in Madison Square Garden where he didn’t play the “old reliables” and got booed, I also only have to please myself.


No, I’m not talking about some kind of investing self-gratification, but I am talking about investment and gratification. The singles gratify me, even if they come at the expense of the homers.


I gave up on trying to be creative. Not only do I have a bad voice, but I can only barely play the accordian, so I know that I won’t be filling any auditoria on my own.


I gave also up on trying to pick stocks and certainly gave up on trying to time purchases to maximize profits.


I recognized, before it was too late, that I was never going to be anything but a cover artist.


Like some Elvis impersonator, I make believe that I know what I’m doing, but in reality, I don’t.


I knw that and so do you.


I don’t really understand fundamental analysis and that probably explains why I don’t have the patience to even attempt to learn. I probably am subconsciously avoiding putting myself into the situation where I would have to admit that “I just don’t get it.”


Except for the fact that I’m fully and consciously now aware of that denial and avoidance strategy.


But like that aging Elvis impersonator, you can make a comfortable, maybe even a very comfortable living without ever coming up with a single original thought.


So I just copy what I’ve done before and then hedge those totally creative lacking decisions by, wouldn’t you know it. covering.


I cover myself and my holdings because I know what my audience wants.


Sugar Momma and I are that audience and like that immortalized Garden crowd of a generation ago, we want safety but we don’t want boredom.


There’s not much respectful about what I do. It’s predominantly laziness and trying to sense opportunities.


Most of the time those opportunities are just the taken from the sense that everything you see, at least when it comes to the shares of solid companies are just part of a trip up or down a sine curve.


I say “solid companies” because I don’t like to think about micro-economic or industry specific issues. I certainly don’t want to get involved in company specific issues.


Except….


Except when there’s an opportunity. Oh Ramsey Lewis, how you’ve molded me.


I look at opportuinities as being on the speculative spectrum and with speculation comes undue risk, which more often than not dwarfs the chance of reward.


I prefer probability over possibility.


Most of the time.


But lately, there’s been opportunity whenever a Chinese company gets maligned. At least when the darts are being flung by Muddy Waters.


In those cases, there’s been nice opportunity, such as very recently with Focus Media to take positions after the big price hits have occured and the  s**t has cleared the fan.


Even when the accusations may prove to be acuirate, there seems to be a calming period when there’s opportunity to sell puts or buy shares and write covered calls. Just like Ramsey Lewis did, sometimes you take advantage of a good thing when it comes along.


I’m not proud. I don’t mind saying that I know nothing of Focus Media, did no independent research and have no real strategy. I would be happy to toss it out next week, when the options cycle ends.


In the case of Focus Media, which was up today to $21.50, despite the 200 point plunge, I sold puts at $15 and $16, back when the stock was at $16, barely 10 days ago. Since then, I also picked up shares at $20.71 and sold $20 calls.


Wow. That’s all over the place.


Maybe the lack of coherency is a sign of creativity or maybe it’s just a sign of situational opportunism.


Either way, I’m covered.


Today’s drastic drop in the market was related to a slew of disappointments with regard to reaching financial, fiscal and policy agreements by the members of the EU.


Then, a slew of all new and unrecognizable acronyms hit the same fan that everyone had thought the s**t had  already cleared.


But in the meantime, I’m looking at the possibility of buying back some of those shares that were assigned from me just a few days ago, this coming monday.


The shares that drifted away may be drifting back. Too bad Dobie Gray never found the opportunity to record that obvious follow-up tune.


The best part about all of this is that I did nothing. Talk about laziness. I respect the art of laziness as I spend my day resting in the aptly named La-Z-Boy and let the Dobie Grays of the world do the hard work while leaving a legacy behind for the less talented and knowing, as myself, to avail.


As I listen to someone talking about things “going more pear shaped,” it continues to crystallize.


At this point, I’m even too lazy to Google that expression.


 I increasingly realize that I need to stay lazy and avoid cluttering my mind with confounders. I can’t compete with those that are actually trying to move forward. I’ll just happily thrive in their wake and smile on their way down and again when they bob back up.


I’ll stick with the tried and tested lazy man’s way.


Thank you to the Dobie Grays of the world. You’re appreciated for having paved the way.


And for “The Dobie Gray,” you gave the world one of its most hummable songs, which is just the lazy way for us untalented sorts to make it our own.


 




The Spilled Milk Bounce






 


I grew up in a household where in my early years English was decidedly a second language.


Even as my parents quickly became fluent in speaking and reading the language of their adopted country, one thing that they didn’t adopt was the use of classically American idiomatic expressions.


Although I’m certain that most such expressions have their counterparts in other cultures, our household, at the very least was idiomatically deprived. Adages were never tossed about as part of casual conversation, nor were parables frequently used to teach life lessons.


Well, other than the obvious “Never let a Cossack into your home while your daughters are there alone.”


In fact, while I did quite well on the SAT exams, I’m certain that what kept me from having an asterisk next to my name was the fact that deciphering the meanings of such expressions as part of a multiple choice exam was somehing beyond my naturalized ability.


The exam was just culturally biased against me and probably even against those that did the actual marauding, raping and pillaging. Those poor Cossacks never stood a chance.


Over the years, though, I’ve learned some of the very basics, although I don’t seek to apply them under any circumstances, except maybe to illustrate a point, almost like what an idiom tries to do.


Silver Lining? Got it, every cloud has one.


Don’t s**t where you sleep? Got that one too. Damn good advice.


Spilled MilkBut last week I was following a path opposite that advised by another popular expression: “Don’t cry over spilled milk.”


I suppose that in the affluence of America that certainly holds true, but how could you even think to say that in parts of Bangladhesh? Or how can you even remotely suggest that to someone who’s let stock profits disappear into someone else’s pockets?


For them, it’s the end of the world as they know it.


But I get it. It’s done. It’s over. Move on. Sunk costs, etc.


But there I was last week moaning the losses of some favorite stocks as they closed above the strike prices at which I sold their call contracts.


One, which I only passingly mentioned over the past few days was Halliburton.


Halliburton, like my other favorites is such, because it predictably spins off a nice options premium. Unfortunately, it’s not one of my triple threat stocks because it has only a pathetic dividend.


It has the attractive premium because if you’re the type that worries about paper losses, you’ll need the money for antacids. It’s just a little volatile and reacts to news, rumors and politically shifting winds.


You need to have a bit of extra stomach lining when you own Halliburton. You also have to ignore its close association with lots of bad things over the years that may make you question the morality of investing in such a company.


I don’t have those kind of qualms, so Cheney, I’m talking to you. In fact, as much as I love New Orleans, making it a regular vacation spot, I applaud the Food Industry portion of Halliburton for its much maligned effort to engineer self frying fish in the Gulf of Mexico.


After all, that seemed like the natural extension and transfer of volatility from the stock to the fish.


When it comes to Halliburton, “What you don’t know won’t hurt you.”


There’s an adage for every situation.


While busy moaning, a funny thing happened. In fact, it was the sort of thing that I always count on happening and welcome with open arms.


Like now.


Jut 3 days after losing my Halliburton shares at $35 for a final options premium of only $0.28, bringing the total 3 months’ premium to $4.56 in addition to that pathetic dividend, it was time to stop moaning and do something.


That something was to snap up shares of Halliburton as it had come down to $33.50 from more than $37.


Although I did shed some metaphorical tears deep down I knew that I would never have taken profits with Halliburton at $37. I never would have sold my shares because you can’t completely escape your human nature, despite the discipline that you seek to impose.


That’s reasonably logical to assume and as we all know logic is  “the opium of the people.”


With the need to moan and feel badly about a lost opportunity that was never really lost, only repackaged, it was time to moan about another boring day in the markets.


And it really was a boring trading session for most of the day until the final 20 minutes.


That was when a rumor came out of Japan that the through the efforts of the G-20 the IMF was going to be able to float $600 Billion to the EU as part of a lending facility. Of course that would be done through the ECB.


Got it? G-20, IMF, EU and ECB. Not as catchy an idiom as the others, but still obvious in its intent.


Seeking to dispel the thought that there was even an opportunity to be “looking a gift horse in the mouth”, the IMF then denied the rumor and the market which had added 80 points in a couple of minutes then shed half of those in the final two minutes of trading.


Honestly? I don’t know what a gift horse is and none of this really effected me or my shares.


During the course of the day I did have the opportunity to make a few trades, but they seemed to follow in my recent usual pattern.


That pattern, which is one that I’m not very happy about, is to sell call options literally minutes before the underlying stock takes a sharp move upward.


Why would I do that?


Because I’m an idiot who can’t tell the future, even when its only a minute ahead.


Today, it was my turn to sell weekly calls on Goldman Sachs and the beleagured Netflix.


The same happened last week with Green Mountain, Caterpillar, JP Morgan and Halliburton.


There may have been some others, but my mind is beginning to shut down as it needs to make room for more idioms.


Over the past few years I’ve done pretty well trying to collect small option premiums, that I refer to as crumbs, just a couple of days before expiration.


Now, with the growth of weekly options, I do that sort of thing much more than ever. Although there were always instances in which I might have regretted one of those crumb picking expeditions, by and large its been a good strategy..


That is until the milk starting spilling.


All of this is pretty ironic since the primary site from which I sell the Option to Profit book is called Milking Stocks.


With all of the economic uncertainty in Europe it truly amazes me that markets would go up on Fridays and traders would stay long into the weekend.


But see, that’s where logic is misleading.


The problem is taking the contrarian approach would lead you to believe that Fridays would represent opportunities to sell off, and therefore, good opportunities to sell call contracts in anticipation.


But logic would tell you the same.


The intersection of logic and contrarianism can’t exist and they certainly can’t be the same.


Given a recent factoid that I posted last week regarding the decided overall downward bias on Mondays, over the past 6 months, traders still stay long and instead of my crumb picking sold options expiring worthless on Friday, they’re saying goodbye to my portfolio as they transition into some nameless and faceless portfolio.


But there I go. Moaning again.


You don’t have to be lactose intolerant to know that neither the spilling of the milk nor the crying over it are worthwhile endeavors.


In the meantime, every talking head is once again warning of a melt up in stock prices.


Logic or contrarian approach? Which to apply to the consensus opinion?


I’m going to stick with the contrary approach and will look to sell other holdings into any strength that may pop up on Thursday.


I may not be able to “tell a book by its cover,” but I do know that sooner or later I’m bound to guess right.and maybe start to “milk  it for all it’s worth” once again.


 





Pull the Plug






Pull the PlugI’ve already made my wishes pretty clear.


After seeing the latest George Clooney movie, “The Descendants”, I definitely don’t want the plug to stay in the wall whenever that time comes along, as it most certainly will.


Nor do I want my loved ones tearing me a new one as I helplessly lay comatose in an overpriced hospital room if (when) by chance they discover some dark secret about me that will occur sometime in the distant future.


Or while I was 500 miles away from home today.


It seemed funny in the movie, but I think that would mar the legacy that I’m actively trying to fabricate.


So, in the event that the documents I’ve previously completed in response to the certainty of the former occuring  are misplaced, let today’s blog serve as a legal document as to my intentions.


Pull the plug. Let me go.


But I don’t think that I need to worry about anyone forgetting what my wishes were.


Although letting go is so hard, one of my sons has already given indication that he’s ready to pull as and when needed.


Even going so far as to smother me, if necessary.


On a day like Tuesday when I was up in the air enroute to a meeting, there was very little, if any evidence on Twitter or elsewhere on-line that I was engaged in any cognitive activity. Based on my usual level of activity, Tuesday was if I had flatlined, with only an occasional spasm reminiscent of a neurovascular bundle firing one last time in a headless chicken..


If I neglect to tell my oldest son of such travel plans, he takes my on-line silence as a sign of my death or irreversible incapacity and immediately begins making plans for the reallocation of my portfolio under his watchful eye.


But when the time does come, I know that I’ll be able to count on him, regardless of how difficult or painful the decision may be. However, he is the son that I’ve also had to school of the definition of “terminal illness,” so as no to be confused with a “sinus headache.”


Sometimes it’s not really your time.


This past Friday I wrote about the possibility of taking a loss on my options contracts in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters following the stock’s short term irrational move upward and the looming contract expiration later that same day.


Faced with the crisis of the loss of a loved one, the underlying shares, sometimes you begin to dabble in irrational thoughts that go counter to the rules of nature. After a while, the dignified thing to do is to stop resuscitative efforts and go on.


When it’s your time you keep your option contract premiums and just let the stock go.


But I just didn’t want to lose my shares. I wasn’t ready for the inevitable. I was even willing to take a loss on the option contracts despite knowing that Green Mountain could just as easily choose to succumb to the improper accounting allegations and take me into the crypt along with it.


I thought about the good times I had with Green Mountain in the past, having first bought shares at about $28 probably a year or so ago.


In the meantime we found ourselves frolicking through the lush fields of green that were lined by all of those option premiums. Occasionally we’d lose sight of one another as someone else would come along and exercise their right to take my shares from me, but somehow we always got back together.


And it was always good.


But lately, Green Mountain was becoming unrecognizable to me.


I’d been there before, though. I thought back to some of the other stocks whose plugs I had pulled without even the slightest thought.


Hewlett Packard, Dell Computer and others sharing one predominant characteristic..


In all of the previous cases the decisions weren’t so difficult once I realized that technology stocks and I were never meant to be together. I should have realized that much sooner, as an early venture into the fledgling, but poorly conceived Putnam Information Sciences mutual fund nearly 30 years ago proved to be a poor decision.


“Technology is the next big thing,” or so they said.


With those I never looked back, never thought about sacrificing the options profits for the parent stock.


But I’d professed my love for Green Mountain in front of an audience of dozens.


Or thousands, as I’m not realy certain how many people actually watch Bloomberg Rewind.


I do, but then again, I also anthropromorphize stocks, so maybe I’m not the best one to set an example.


Although I did the right thing, or at least believe I did, the truth is that I couldn’t do without my Green Mountain.


Not the coffee. That’s pretty insipid.


But I repurchased the shares that I’d just lost and proving that I’m incapable of learning from my unfortunate recent journey, went and sold in the money call options on my repurchased shares.


It’s like putting the plug right back in, just to have a chance to pull it again.


Strange, but I could never understand people whose pet had just passed and then immediately went out and got an identical pet as  a replacement for their beloved friend.


Yet, no such thoughts over stocks, despite the tendency to anthropromorphize.


In fact, I’m more than happy to see some shares go with no greater joy than to get them back in the fold as quickly as possible.


Today, while waiting for the plane’s door to be shut at 9:50 AM, I was able to pick up shares of Deere and then do the obligatory thing and sell calls on those shares.


Unfortunately, and yet again, now for the 8th time in about a month, I’ve been aboard a Southwest Airlines jet that wasn’t equipped with Wi-Fi.


But, as it turned out, not too much happened in the 90 minutes that I was cut off from my version of civilization. I really missed nothing other than the chance to not be overly concerned about missing something potentially important.


Upon landing, I picked up some additional shares of Textron, and, you guessed it, sold some call options.


As I think about, my reflexive sale of call options is the ultimate endorsement of pulling the plug.


Most knowledgeable about investor psychology will tell you that the single most difficult thing for an investor to do is to sell shares. Not because it’s so hard to let go, but because greed intervenes and sends the message that whatever profits are available are but a mere pittance of what could be on the table if you only had the cajones.


But by selling calls, especially in the absence of any emotion surrounding their exercise, the decision to sell is made for you as circumstances unfold. It’s the equivalent of Advanced Directives for the investor.


What more of a natural way to see the life of a holding run its course?


No need for controversy, no discussion regarding ethics.


Just a very simpel transaction.


We all know that we’ll all go down that same path, so why not do it in an non-impasioned fashion and maintaining dignity for all?


So for me, there’ll be nor more angst like that which I just went through.


Just as “Ashes to Ashes and dust to dust..” has real meaning, so too should every stock have a life cycle that runs its course without extraordinary intervention.


In the meantimes, believe me, it’s just a sinus headache.


 


 




Rational or Emotional?






EmotionsIt’s so hard to balance the emotional side from the rational side in all aspects of life.


Although I often write and talk about setting aside human tendencies like fear, greed and envy when it comes to investing, it’s so much easier to say than it is to practice.


Life itself is no different.


The other day I posted a comment on James Altucher’s blog. If you haven’t read the Altucher Confidential, you really should take a look. He writes in an entertaining way and addresses universal emotions and trials by recounting his own life experiences.


However, in response to the comment, I received a reply that was interesting, to say the least and was the impetus for today’s theme.


My initial comment was in response to Altucher’s recommendation to author wannabes to consider the route of self-publishing.


Once, self-publishing was only for the wealthy, those not minding to waste their money and the delusional.


These days, it’s a reasonable way to put out a product. Success is limited only by marketing efforts and ingenuity.


Speaking of which, take a look at an 11 year old’s contibution to the theatrical marketing efforts of Option to Profit. We’re still open to suggestions as to who to cast as the protagonist in the film version.


Obviously, having gone that route and increasingly happy with the results, I responded with my own experiences and as is often the case, in an attempt to increase readership of this blog and to spur book sales, I left a link to this site.


Thank you, James.


The response to my comment was:


“Hey AcsMan, just some constructive criticism for your blog. I tried to look around but I couldn’t stand it as it was just too full of google ads and irrelevant tag clouds…”


My initial reaction was, “it’s TheAcsMan. Only my parents call me AcsMan.”


Given that I am a dyed in the wool capitalist, I do use pay per click ads on my blog, but there’s only a single such ad on the home page and two ads on subsequent pages.


Not overly obtrusive or greedy.


Ever since using the ads as a source of revenue, the little waif that I’d taken in for humanitarian purposes, in addition to cheap labor, now gets two helpings of gruel daily.


What caught my attention though was the juxtaposition of the rational offer of constructive criticism together with the emotional comment  “…I couldn’t stand it…”


There was an imbalance in those thoughts that offended the rational portion of my brain and initially made me disinclined to even consider the overall message.


The emotional part of my brain doesn’t take kindly even to constructive criticism, but the essence of the unsolicited observation was correct.


In addition to the Google pay per click ads, a contextual text ad program was loaded a few days prior.


That revenue tool places annoying green underlines all over the text with links to largely irrelevant ads.


He was right. I couldn’t stand it either, but saying so sounded so much more refined coming from me.


It did look cheesey and was very distracting.


My words. Not his.


So the rational part of me removed those links, depite their proven ability to generate revenue and now Little Timmy will die.


As it turned out, the criticism was constructive and I’ve made the bearer an unpaid design consultant. Had the ads remained, I probably would have paid very handsomely.


But that core concept of rational versus emotional carried through to the first trading day of the week.


As writing today’s post, I came across a Tweet from one of my favorites, SellPuts. I’ve mentioned him before. He fits into the category of people that Tweet, yet I have no clue of what is being said, as I know knothing of fundamental chart analysis.


But SellPuts is entertaining and impassioned. I would guess that if you knew anything about technical analysis he would really be worth following, not only on Twitter, but on his website, as well.


Anyway, his 140 space or less piece of rational wisdom was “trade what you see not what you think.”


Perfectly said, although his usual stuff has more emotion attached.


Last week defied rational thought.


This week opened the same, although the rally faded by mid afternoon, as it did on Friday


I was faced with a bundle of cash sitting in my account as 30% of my portfolio was assigned following irrational moves in such holdings as Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Caterpillar and others.


Normally, I can’t sit for more than a few minutes with the cash burning in my pockets.


Despite knowing better I tend to be like a drunken sailor on shore leave and buy everything in sight, even in the face of a rally.


That’s not rational. I know it. I know that there’s a need to “Exercise Restraint to Prevent Premature Speculation,” but again. like all things emotional, it’s harder to do than to say.


Today, though, the rational side seemed to be in place and functioning much better than the portion of me that would be afraid of letting a rally slip away from me.


Remember the dangers of falling prey to the FOMO?”


But I was restrained.


I also tried to defer to my rational side in thinking that despite more talk about a melt up, it wasn’t going to happen this week.


So instead of furtively squandering the money, I sold calls a bit more deep in the money than usual in order to lock up some nice premiums, in anticipation of a fade in the underlying stocks.


The same anticipation that proved to be wrong last week.


Now part of that, though, was based a little on envy, since last month was my best ever for generating options premium income and thus far, after 2 weeks, the December cycle is middling.


Envy is a lot like FOMO, but I was really envious of November’s options premiums.


Along the way, I did find the time to buy shares or add to existing positions, but even those saw me sell deeper in the money calls than usual.


I picked up additional shares of Netflix, Mosaic, Sallie Mae and ProShares UltraSilver ETF and quickly sold calls.


I also opened up a sizeable position in Alcoa, despite today’s negative analyst comments and sold a combination of weekly calls and December 2011 calls. The prospect of a 2% premium for a single week appealed to both the emotional and rational brains.


The truly irrational side of me bought shares in Focus Media, to complement the puts that I had previously sold, as Muddy Waters does nothing to erase doubts about its recent activities.


And of course I sold the calls.


Despite the restraint, there still turned out to be too many trades to recount them all, as if you really cared. But if you do, just go to the Portfolio Transaction page.


Going into the last hour of the trading day, the market’s gains were mostly gone and I still had spending money.


Best of all, silver was beginning to look as if it was ready to give up the Ghost, having turned its early day gain around to a substanial loss.


That followed a disappointing week when silver did nothing but climb and I watched my short leveraged ETF fall.


Even worse, I’d prematurely bought back my calls, thereby returning a portion of the rich premiums.


I decided to be a spectator for the final hour.


At that point actual news began filtering in and was ultimately responsible for the reversal of the market’s fortune. WIth all of the component Euro nations being put on credit watch by Standard and Poors, there was less joy in Mudville, but more joy on my La-Z-Boy.


It wasn’t quite like seeing a roadside deer, but I was happy to relax after churning out 24 trades for the day.


What makes me especially happy, if I can delay jury duty for yet another day, is that there may be some bargains to be had tomorrow and I still have cash.


That almost never happens.


The emotional side of me is chomping at the bit at the prospect of actually timing it like that.


The rational side is beginning to warm to the emotions of the moment and is likely to cede all control if the market takes a breather and then some tomorrow


Hell, we may even be able to make .enough to feed Timmy anyway.


Screw those obnoxious green underlined words. We didn’t need them anyway.


And from both sides of my brain, a special thank you to DannyBoy990. 


 




I Want to Testify






There comes a time in all of our lives when we’ve behaved in one of those really annoying Holier than Thou” kind of ways.


People who do so on a regular basis, and I include myself in that category, come in various shapes, sizes and flavors. The world of faith, that of politics and certainly the world of finance have all seen their fair share of characters espousing the kinds of attitudes that have most people praying for someone to be taken down a notch or two.


Jerry FallwellJerry Fallwell, John Edwards and Bernie Madoff come to mind very quickly.


There are so many more of the one time high flying, but then fallen angels, than I could possibly ever fit into the pages of this blog.


But in America our fallen stars can recover and become rehabilitated so quickly. Probably no  nation in the world practices the concept of foregiveness as well as we do in America.


Either that, or our collective short term memory has taken a really big hit from way too many ganja hits over the years. 


How else do you explain the phenomenon of Newt Gingrich?


Along with the late Henry Hyde (R – Illinois), no two were more vocal and critical of Bill Clinton when his literal and figurative peccaddillloes came to light.


Hyde trumped them all by having a ‘baby momma” hidden from the public’s views for all those years, although Gingrich wasn’t far behind.


Gandhi was reported to have said “I like your Christ, but I do not like your Christians.”


Of course, these days, that quote would be artisitically toyed with a bit by the likes of Jon Stewart to something like “I like Christ, but Christians? Eh, not so much.”


He then would be castigated by someone who shouldn’t be throwing stones from inside a glass broadcast booth (On FOX).


But I stray.


As always, this is about me.


I feel a need to testify as I’ve been moved by the spirit.


At least the spirit in the profits I may have left on the table this past week.


Admittedly, last week didn’t turn out that badly for me. While the S&P 500 was up by 7.4%, I lagged by only 0.2%, having had a good day on Friday, when the market gave all 150 points back.


But it was more of a case of what could have been.


Over the years I’d been fairly immune from making stupid trades. Especially the kind that I describing as picking crumbs, when I try to squeeze out any last bits of option sale related income.


But not this week.


And I feel a need to cleanse myself and confess my sins. By so doing, I also feel a need to testify in the name of profits.


Not prophets.


Profits.


This past week I started by doubting all thouse dismissing Monday’s 300 point run up as nothing more than a “dead cat bounce.” The chorus was too uniform to be true. The devil’s cacophony always overwhelms the sweetly melodius hymns of the angels in the battle for our souls.


As it turns out, I was right about that, but not right about which way to go when the chorus changed its tune.


By mid-week the chorus was calling for a melt-up in stock prices.


Having no faith in the powers of the voices that be, my sinful self opted to go counter to the wave and sold calls on whatever I could that would be expiring on Friday.


Just an example of my personal greed trying to take advantage of the leveraged greed of call option buyers.


By Wednesday I’d sold calls on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Caterpillar, Hallliburton and Freeport McMoRan.


For sake of brevity, I’ll leave out those sales for which I have no regrets.


Actually, if I really wanted to be brief I would have done it the other way around, but the backspace button is such an onerous chore.


Of course, those shares that I mentioned just rode the wave and then some.


As the market decided to go with the good employment numbers on Friday and the market took off, I just knew that the wave would ebb.


I also just knew that the meteoric rise in Silver prices would reverse.


So with the confidence that only a “holier than though” trader could muster, I also sold calls on JP Morgan in the firm knowledge that my own brand of faith, that of the wisdom of TheAcsMan, would prevail.


To top it off, I also bought back all of my calls in the ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF, limiting options premium related profits in the supreme confidence that there were even more and bigger premiums in the world to come in a day or so.


But in a blast of truly divine contra-intervention, JP Morgan shares just took off, while the rest of the market began the fade that I so smugly knew would be happening.


Silver?


Oh yeah. It went up some more and in my case, up is bad.


When it was all said and done for the week and the last day of the trading week, I’d won one the battle, but lost the war. Although I had more right decisions and trades than not, it was the one that was not that sent me into reflection.


JP Morgan Chase.


Now, I’m no Gandhi. Lord knows the extra 2 inches necessary in that pair of pants will testify to that, but at least I could reflect.


Holier than thou? Richer than thou? Richer than the me that could have been?


No, maybe and no.


Among the things that I discuss in Option to Profit are the need to dismiss human emotilons of greed and fear. Since then, I’ve also added the need to banish the fear of mssing out.


The sale of last minute calls hoping to capture some extra crumbs worth of premiums is consistent with not being worried about missing out on the kind of totally unexpected gains that could materialize in just a second.


That’s exactly what happened with JP Morgan.


Earlier in the week itr had also happened with Caterpillar, as it went up more than 7% on a day that the Dow went up by just a bit less than 5%.


Now some in the chorus will chant that Caterpillar was unnecssarily beaten fdown in the days before that 490 point gain and that observation would be correct, but it’s certainly not a reason. It’s just an observation, as there were many stocks that were beaten down, but did not bounce back disproportionately.


Jesus wasn’t the only one crucified.


So I lament the loss of Caterpillar, as well, as the heretics exercise their right to take my shares.


But just as Henry Hyde, Tammy Faye Baker and others, the mighty all seem to fall. So too will Caterpillar.


Remember Ozymandias?


Of course you don’t. He never really existed, but Shelley used the mythical Ozymandias to make a point.


Actually, the reason you don’t remember is that no one reads Shelley and Ozymandias was actually another name for the historical Pharoah, Ramses.


But again, that damn backspace. So much easier to go forward than to linger in the past and try to correct those mistakes.


But just as some whose stars fade and never return, Caterpillar will do so and I’ll be there to welcome it back into the stable.


Of course, what would have been much easier and certainly more satisfying would be to use life’s backspace button and “Give me One More Chance.”


In all likelihood, using that backspace option would do nothing, because I wouldn’t have taken profits in my JP Morgan shares, anyway.


Like most investors, it’s easy to say that you need to banish “Greed.” but to do so is really pretty hard.


Ultimately, that’s what really seperates us from the animals. Our inability to learn from our mitakes is distinctive, as usually our mistakes don’t kill us.


We all seem to share the human tendency of not recognizing when it’s time to sell. Instead of selling JP Morgan shares at their peak, most of us will just watch it go back down as it retraces its ascent downward and will then watch it ascend again.


How sad that we keep making the same mistakes. But at least we live to see another day.


That’s what America is about.


Where else can you make the same mistakes, yet rise again, Newt? (Although I do consider him to be an animal.)


As with every Monday, there’s yet another chance to “Do it One More Time” and see whether the deathbed conversion will actually hold.


I’ve seen my personal Profit and Loss statement and I’ve felt the need to cleanse, but damn it, this is America and I get another shot for redemption, as well as another chance to fall and rise and fall again.


Linday Lohan and all of those who ever sang “Give Me One More Chance” would all be envious.