Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – August 24, 2016 (7:30 AM)

As we approach the middle of the week, all eyes are now on the final 2 days of festivities coming from the beauty of Jackson Hole.

I’ve been there twice, coincidentally at this time of the year, but long before I had any interest in the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s party antics.

The likelihood is that Janet Yellen will say something that supports the notion that an interest rate hike is going to soon by obviously warranted.

The market will probably react positively to those kind of words, but then comes the questions as to what’s next.

What has to come next, in order for the market to move higher is that there is obvious evidence of the consumer againg becoming involved in growing the economy.

At the same time there can’t be too much acceleration in the price of oil, while the dollar has to remain in its current range or get a little weaker.

Of course, it also wouldn’t hurt if the interest rate increase was small and that there wasn’t going to be much talk about another increase in the near future.

With all the good things possibly needing to happen to keep stocks moving higher, one thing that isn’t going to be need is competition from bonds.

I don’t think that there will be much to do for me this week as the single expiring position has already been rolled over, although some of the positions that I’ve been hoping to sell calls upon are looking more likely, so I would be very happy to pull that trigger.

That’s so even if it means putting them into suspended animation for a few months, as the low volatility doesn’t offer much in the way of premiums unless time is added into the equation in a meaningful way.

If in that process there’s also a dividend or two to be had and maybe some capital gains on the shares, as well, it is a little more palatable stretching things out.

Otherwise, not so much.

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Daily Market Update – August 23, 2016 (Close)

There still isn’t too much on tap for this week as some jurisdictions have already started going back to school and the rest of us are trying to squeeze a last few days out of summer.

The market was higher in the pre-opening following a day yesterday that actually had some volatility, albeit in a pretty tight range.

Today it was just about the same range, but without the volatility, although the market did give up most of its early gain when the final bell tolled.

Yesterday was a great reflection of just how undecided everyone happens to be, as we went up and down all through the day with no real news to account for anything.

It really wasn’t too different today. There was still no commitment from anyone.

While we do have some economic news this week and some more, although relatively unimportant earnings to come, the real news will be made in parsing the words coming from the attendees of the Jackson Hole meeting later in the week.

As the GDP is released on Friday, we will undoubtedly focus on what Janet Yellen says, which is expected to echo what Stanley Fischer said.

That is, we are pretty close to having the conditions to increase interest rates.

Will that be in September is the question for now. A strong GDP might make that the case.

Otherwise, we are quickly approaching the one tear anniversary of the first increase in about 9 years.

I did make one rollover trade yesterday and that leaves nothing else on the table.

No dividend positions, no expiring positions.

Nothing.

I either need to make some trades or have the market move some select stocks higher so that they can start making some money.

I didn’t expect to do very much today, but that has been a recurring theme that I’m not thrilled about these days.

At least there was no disappointment.

Maybe that will come tomorrow.

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Daily Market Update – August 232, 2016 (9:00 AM)

There still isn’t too much on tap for this week as some jurisdictions have already started going back to school and the rest of us are trying to squeeze a last few days out of summer.

The market is higher in the pre-opening following a day yesterday that actually had some volatility, albeit in a pretty tight range.

Yesterday was a great reflection of just how undecided everyone happens to be, as we went up and down all through the day with no real news to account for anything.

While we do have some economic news this week and some more, although relatively unimportant earnings to come, the real news will be made in parsing the words coming from the attendees of the Jackson Hole meeting later in the week.

As the GDP is released on Friday, we will undoubtedly focus on what Janet Yellen says, which is expected to echo what Stanley Fischer said.

That is, we are pretty close to having the conditions to increase interest rates.

Will that be in September is the question for now. A strong GDP might make that the case.

Otherwise, we are quickly approaching the one tear anniversary of the first increase in about 9 years.

I did make one rollover trade yesterday and that leaves nothing else on the table.

No dividend positions, no expiring positions.

Nothing.

I either need to make some trades or have the market move some select stocks higher so that they can start making some money.

I don’t expect to do very much today, but that has been a recurring theme that I’m not thrilled about these days.

.

Daily Market Update – August 22, 2016 (Close)

There isn’t too much on tap for this week, what with summer winding down.

Although there will be a GDP release to end the week, the real news may come along with that summer ending tradition in Jackson Hole, Wyoming as the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank holds its annual monetary policy symposium.

I wonder why they don’t hold it in Kansas City? At least the Missouri version.

That means that people will be listening to every word and every nuance to get some idea of when the FOMC may finally decide to raise rates.

If you listened to Stanley Fischer, the Vice-Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he indicated that the FOMC had pretty much all of the data it needed to do so.

In that case many will be looking for words of validation over the 2 days of the meeting which Janet Yellen skipped last year.

That meeting was a yawner, but it may be different this year, as Janet Yellen is scheduled to give a big speech and there may even be some wonder as to whether she is open to another term.

This week looks as if it will be getting off to a quiet start, continuing the pattern of the past few weeks.

Markets are still within easy reach of surpassing the all time high, which itself was more than 2% above the previously recognized high.

That’s something that has only happened 4 times in history, so this really is a pretty remarkable time.

This week may not be so remarkable, though.

I have some more cash available after the expiration of puts and that looked for a very short while as if it might be joined by cash from the assignment of a single lot of calls set to expire this week.

That is until I decided to keep the position alive by rolling it over in the face of a large decline in the shares today.

The trade off was that I was willing to take another 1.8% in income for an additional 2 weeks if the shares fell less than an additional 4% in that time period.

If it falls more, maybe I can keep the position alive even longer.

While I wouldn’t mind having some additional opportunities to generate income, I like the idea of collecting more cash in the event that we realize that there hasn’t been too much of a reason to have gotten to these new highs.

Beyond that, there’s also that pesky “sell on the news” phenomenon.

Still, while collecting more cash, I wouldn’t mind if this week does bring some more strength, if only to have the opportunity to finally sell some calls on positions that have been tantalizingly close the past few weeks and that have been begging for the opportunity to generate some income.

With no ex-dividend positions this week and now no more rollovers, the only prospects for generating cash this week are to either spend down some of the cash reserve or sell calls on uncovered positions.

I’d prefer the latter, but may be willing to take the former, especially if there is some profit taking early in the week.

Otherwise, I do like some of the earnings related positions highlighted this week, but as the caveat in the weekly article pointed out, I’m only likely to bite in the event of some sig
nificant drops after earnings and may be then more inclined to do traditional covered call trades, rather than selling puts, in the event that there is going to be an ex-dividend date near at hand.

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Daily Market Update – August 22, 2016 (8:30 AM)

There isn’t too much on tap for this week, what with summer winding down.

Although there will be a GDP release to end the week, the real news may come along with that summer ending tradition in Jackson Hole, Wyoming as the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank holds its annual monetary policy symposium.

That means that people will be listening to every word and every nuance to get some idea of when the FOMC may finally decide to raise rates.

If you listened to Stanley Fischer, the Vice-Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he indicated that the FOMC had pretty much all of the data it needed to do so.

In that case many will be looking for words of validation over the 2 days of the meeting which Janet Yellen skipped last year.

That meeting was a yawner, but it may be different this year, as Janet Yellen is scheduled to give a big speech and there may even be some wonder as to whether she is open to another term.

This week looks as if it will be getting off to a quiet start, continuing the pattern o0f the past few weeks.

Markets are still within easy reach of surpassing the all time high, which itself was more than 2% above the previously recognized high.

That’s something that has only happened 4 times in history, so this really is a pretty remarkable time.

This week may not be so remarkable, though.

I have some more cash available after the expiration of puts and that looks as if it may be joined by cash from the assignment of a single lot of calls.

While I wouldn’t mind having some additional opportunities to generate income, I like the idea of collecting more cash in the event that we realize that there hasn’t been too much of a reason to have gotten to these new highs.

Beyond that, there’s also that pesky “sell on the news” phenomenon.

Still, while collecting more cash, I wouldn’t mind if this week does bring some more strength, if only to have the opportunity to finally sell some calls on positions that have been tantalizingly close the past few weeks and that have been begging for the opportunity to generate some income.

With no ex-dividend positions this week and no rollovers, the only prospects for generating cash this week are to either spend down some of the cash reserve or sell calls on uncovered positions.

I’d prefer the latter, but may be willing to take the former, especially if there is some profit taking early in the week.

Otherwise, I do like some of the earnings related positions highlighted this week, but as the caveat in the weekly article pointed out, I’m only likely to bite in the event of some significant drops after earnings and may be then more inclined to do traditional covered call trades, rather than selling puts, in the event that there is going to be an ex-dividend date near at hand.

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