Week In Review – June 20 – 24, 2016

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

June 20 – 24, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
1  /  1 1 0 1   /   0 1   /   0 0 2

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

June 20 – 24, 2016


Last week it was hard to understand what had happened.

This week it was easy.

When it was all said and done today’s decline took 2016 negative for the year.

What may be sadder is that it only took a 3.6% loss to do that at this point in the year.

There was a new position opened this week and somehow it managed to stay above water. That position was 3.2% higher, finishing 4.8% higher than both the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500. The basic index ended the week being 1.6% lower, as its good gain for the week was obliterated on Friday.

Existing positions were 0.7% higher than the S&P 500 for the week, however, that meant they still lost 0.9%.

With a single new assignment on the week closed positions in 2016 were 8.0% higher, while the comparable performance for the S&P 500 during the same holding periods has been 1.2% higher. That represents a completely ridiculous 593.8% difference in return on closed positions. That would be much more impressive if there were many more closed positions in 2016, but that just hasn’t been the case.

Even as existing positions lost 0.9% for the week, it wasn’t entirely terrible.

It certainly could have been much, much worse, especially as oil was hit so hard to end the week, as well.

Still, the single new position opened on the week fared well and there were a couple of ex-dividend positions, as well as an assignment.

It also helped to see one uncovered position get some cover, although another position did end up ex[piring.

This week just showed how terrible investors, pollsters and everyone else happens to be.

The confidence exhibited by investors heading into the “Brexit” vote has to be way up there with the biggest mis-reads in the world.

Amazingly markets were driven higher on Thursday ahead of the vote as if there was immunity to disappointment.

That was definitely not the case as everyone get it so terribly wrong.

Politicians, pollsters, bookies and investors.

We will start the week with what look to be lots of bargains.

I will start the week with a little more cash from an assignment, but with about 5 ex-dividend positions on the week I may not feel much uregency to add any new positions.

The manner in which financials were hit to end the week, however, makes them very tempting, but those temptations may abound in other sectors, as well.

Why Macy’s had to feel the blow from Brexit, I may not fully comprehend, but there may be good reason to look critically at lots of things.

For now, though, I’m just going to think about the weekend and how good it is to be in the United States of America, without too much thought of any important state deciding to secede.


This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  CY

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: STX

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  MRO

Calls Expired:  HFC

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions   LVS (6/20 $0.72), JPY (6/20 $0.01)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: CY (6/28 $0.11), DOW (6/28 $0.46), EMC (6/29 $0.11), WFM (6/29 $0.14), GPS (7/1 $0.23)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



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Daily Market Update – June 24, 2016

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Daily Market Update – June 24, 2016 (7:30 AM)


The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM tonight and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  none

Rollovers:  MRO *

Expirations:  HFC

The following were ex-dividend this week:  LVS (6/20 $0.72), JOY (6/20 $0.01)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  CY (6/28 $0.11), DOW (6/28 $0.46), EMC (6/29 $0.11), WFM (6/29 $0.14), GPS (7/1 $0.23)

* With a large decline looming this morning following Great Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, the position in Marathon Oil, is dropping sharply in the pre-opening futures. Rather than seeing it assigned, if it remains above $1`3.50, I may be interested in attempting to roll it over.

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made by 3:30 PM EDT


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Daily Market Update – June 23, 2016 (Close)

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Daily Market Update – June 23, 2016 (Close)


Yesterday was another day of investors being either cautious or unwilling to take sides.

No one was particularly interested in what Janet Yellen was saying during her second day of Congressional testimony. Instead, there was some re-found concern about the possibility that Great Britain could vote to actually leave the European Union.

This morning, with still about 10 hours to go until the polls closed and nearly 18 hours before all the votes were expected to be counted, the mood was pretty optimistic that departure wasn’t in the cards.

Who knows where that overnight confidence could possibly come from, but that was the position of things this morning and that optimism never gave up.

In fact, the market traded in a narrow range, albeit nicely higher, until the final hour.

That’s when the market decided to add on even more, with still about an hour until the polls were actually closed.

With only 2 positions due to expire this week and having sold only one new position, along with only 2 ex-dividend positions this week, I’d really like to see some action on Friday, especially as a follow-up to today.

Whether that’s assignment or rollover doesn’t really matter to me at this point. I’d just like to generate some more revenue and would again consider trying to rollover a well in the money position just to milk the steep premium.

I’ve been trying to do that almost all week and haven’t been able to get my price, still shooting for an additional 1% on the rollover, as a guideline for making that kind of a trade.

Otherwise, while I was expecting that it might be another day of watching things, there was an opportunity to sell some calls on an uncovered position, although it was for 3 months ahead.

After seeing what the market ended up doing on the rumor, tomorrow we may end up seeing how the market subsequently reacts to the news.

If Britain decides to stay, the question then becomes one of “so why is anything different, now? Why did we buy stocks for no real net change in what’s going on all around us?”

So if today was “buy on the rumor,” you might logically expect a “sell on the news,” although there could always be those still cautious who decide to jump in and join the party.

That’s when everyone else leaves you holding the bag.


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Daily Market Update – June 23, 2016

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Daily Market Update – June 23, 2016 (7:30 AM)


Yesterday was another day of investors being either cautious or unwilling to take sides.

No one was particularly interested in what Janet Yellen was saying during her second day of Congressional testimony. Instead, there was some re-found concern about the possibility that Great Britain could vote to actually leave the European Union.

This morning, with still about 10 hours to go until the polls close and nearly 18 hours before all the votes are expected to be counted, the mood is pretty optimistic that departure isn’t in the cards.

Who knows where that overnight confidence could possibly come from, but that’s the position of things this morning.

With only 2 positions due to expire this week and having sold only one new position, along with only 2 ex-dividend positions this week, I’d really like to see some action on Friday.

Whether that’s assignment or rollover doesn’t really matter to me at this point. I’d just like to generate some more revenue and would again consider trying to rollover a well in the money position just to milk the steep premium.

I’ve been trying to do that almost all week and haven’t been able to get my price, still shooting for an additional 1% on the rollover, as a ugideline for making that kind of a trade.

Otherwise, it may be yet another day of watching things and seeing what the rumor ends up doing and then seeing how the market subsequently reacts to the news.

If Britain decides to stay, the question then becomes one of “so why is anything different, now? Why did we buy stocks for no real net change in what’s going on all around us?”

So if today is “buy on the rumor,” you might logically expect a “sell on the news,” although there could always be those still cautious who decide to jump in and join the party.

That’s when everyone else leaves you holding the bag.


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Daily Market Update – June 22, 2016 (Close)

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Daily Market Update – June 22, 2016 (Close)


Yesterday was a day when Janet Yelln basically put markets to sleep.

Today they just stayed asleep as it was very much a repeat of went on yesterday.

At that same time, just as Yellen was saying nothing, after having shown confidence about a “Remain” vote in England, suddenly there was again some concern that an exit might still be a possibility.

Such is the world of polling during what is expected to be a close election.

This morning began as Janet Yellen was to again appear before Congress and we were to be faced with the final polls before the real thing tomorrow.

Maybe, as expected, that’s why  the futures were flat this morning and ended the day ambivalently.

After the vote actually happens there could be some kind of move, presumably higher if England elects to remain in the European Union and then much lower if England votes to exit.

The degree in the difference of the movement could be related to the belief that remaining in the European Union has already been discounted and leaving, which was recently expected to be the outcome, might now be considered as a surprise.

Amazing how quickly things change.

As was the case yesterday, I expect to be on the sidelines today, still hopeful of rollover or assignment opportunities.

Since both of the 2 expiring positions are energy related, I’m also hopeful for some continued strength in oil, and at the same time hopeful that the broader market continues to follow the path of oil, even as the correlation is appropriately weakening.

I didn’t know how closely I’d be listening to Yellen’s closing session this morning and as it worked out, I barely listened at all.

That’s a change, as I used to be glued to the screen when Greenspan, Bernanke and even the Yellen of a month or more ago ever spoke.

But lately, the complete hedging strategy makes it frustrating to even listen.

At least we may have tomorrow to look forward to,

After that, I’m not certain what really comes next, unless there is some blow-out number or revision in GDP or the Employment Situation Report that could set things up for an unexpected outcome at the July FOMC meeting.

That’s not too likely, so it may just be a quiet summer, at least as far as news is concerned.

Those event kind of vacuums in a sideways moving market could lead to their own big surprises, though.


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