Daily Market Update – June 16, 2016

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Daily Market Update – June 16.5, 2016 (7:00 AM)


Yesterday was in sharp contrast to the way the previous day came to its close.

Yesterday, immediately after Janet Yellen’s press conference concluded, the market sold off what modest gains it had made and ended the day lower.

While she spoke, the market pretty much treaded water. It had rallied upon the release of the FOMC Statement, but then really didn’t know what to make of the increasingly dovish tone adopted by Yellen and it just traded in a narrow range through the prepared text and the question and answer period.

But when it all ended came the realization that if the economy wasn’t good enough to support even a 0.25% interest rate increase, maybe it’s not good enough to be a place to park your money.

If your job was to record events, the uptick and the downturn were very easily identifiable as were their causes.

This morning’s futures are just modestly weaker as overseas markets had a rough session and oil is again falling.

Using those as guides, we may have fared quite well yesterday in comparison to others around the world.

With just 2 days remaining in the week, my aspirations are meek.

I would just like to rollover a position or 2 or see an assignment or two.

With a number of losing sessions now being strung together each of those aspirations is getting a little more difficult, but as the market’s weakness drives volatility higher, there may at least be some opportunity to get some relatively larger premiums and look at longer term expiration dates to lock in those premiums while awaiting what is hopefully coming.

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Daily Market Update – June 15, 2016 (Close)

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Daily Market Update – June 15, 2016 (Close)


Yesterday ended much better than it had been looking earlier in the day.

With a reasonably strong loss on Monday, had the losses continued to that degree on Tuesday, there would have been some good chance of getting some kind of relief rally on Wednesday, almost regardless of what would have been contained in the FOMC Statement release.

With some early morning strength, almost enough to offset yesterday’s loss, that could have left markets easily going in either direction at 2 PM and maybe even again afterward, as Janet Yellen was to hold her press conference.

The expectation seems to be that there may be more dove than hawk today both from the statement itself and then during the press conference.

Unless a real shocker were to come and interest rates were raised, there wasn’t too much reason for the market to behave badly.

That is, unless another bombshell were to hit, such as any mention of the word “recession.”

That latter bombshell seemed very unlikely, but it’s the unlikely that gets people’s attention and flames fears or greed.

For today, I would have  just liked to have see something that helped the market move higher.

That’s not the way it worked out, though.

As it was, there wasn’t much chance of me spending any money prior to the FOMC and not much likelihood of doing so after the press conference.

What we saw was the market hit its high point right at the release, although not a really tremendous gain, no matter how you looked at it and then fall to close at its lows beginning immediately after the end of the press conference.

What can we learn from that behavior?

Nothing, except that maybe traders realized that dovishness at this point isn’t reflective of the kind of economy to write home about.

At this point, I’d just like to see this week come to an end and get the July 2016 option cycle going.


Daily Market Update – June 15, 2016

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Daily Market Update – June 15, 2016 (8:00 AM)


Yesterday ended much better than it had been looking earlier in the day.

With a reasonably strong loss on Monday, had the losses continued to that degree on Tuesday, there would have been some good chance of getting some kind of relief rally on Wednesday, almost regardless of what would have been contained in the FOMC Statement release.

With some early morning strength, almost enough to offset yesterday’s loss, that leaves markets easily going in either direction at 2 PM and maybe even again afterward, as Janet Yellen holds her press conference.

The expectation seems to be that there may be more dove than hawk today both from the statement itself and then during the press conference.

Unless a real shocker comes and interest rates are raised, there’s not too much reason for the market to behave badly.

That is, unless another bombshell hits, such as any mention of the word “recession.”

That latter bombshell seems very unlikely, but it’s the unlikely that gets people’s attention and flames fears or greed.

For today, I would just like to see something that helps the market move higher.

There’s not much chance of me spending any money prior to the FOMC and not even likely until after the press conference.

At this point, I’d just like to see this week come to an end and get the July 2016 option cycle going.


Daily Market Update – June 14, 2016 (Close)

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Daily Market Update – June 14, 2016 (Close)


The week looked like it may get off to a weaker start as we awaited Wednesday’s FOMC Statement release.

What wasn’t totally expected was just how weak it would get as the market fell back in line with the price of oil, something it hadn’t really done in the past 2 weeks.

There was also the pressure of very weak global markets and the strength of Treasury Notes, but the connection to oil was inescapable yesterday.

The market was sharply lower, then positive and then finished the day sharply lower.

All of that was in perfect concert with oil’s moves.

Today, in the futures trading, oil was again weak, but the market wasn’t as low as it could be.

For a while it looked as if today might end up being just as weak or even weaker than on Monday, but markets did rally somewhat to just end the day as a mediocre one and not one with anything memorable.

Maybe there was a little more focus on interest rates, but we really won’t get any news until tomorrow.

After that event and Janet Yellen’s press conference, attention can then turn to Great Britain and its vote on whether to remain part of the European Union.

That of course will be quickly forgotten as we then move onto something else, like maybe the upcoming Employment Situation Report and how upward revisions could lead to something substantive coming from July’s FOMC meeting.

But there’s still the rest of this week to deal with.

I added more oil in the hopes of continuing to take advantage of those steep premiums.

Even if the timing proves to be wrong, those premiums make it easier to wait until the timing is no longer an issue.

I don’t think that I’ll be spending any more money this week, but you never know.

I’d be very happy to simply generate some rollover income for the week and as with yesterday’s rollover of a deep in the money position, right now, I’d rather take the premiums than take assignment, even as that would add to cash reserves.

Otherwise, there’s probably not much to watch today and maybe even less to do.

Unless there are some big surprises tomorrow, maybe even if only in the words used to describe the economy, there isn’t much reason for any large moves, although reason is usually not necessary.

Tomorrow may be another day for stocks to try and overcome some resistance, if the news is interpreted as being good.

I think that I will just be a bystander.


Daily Market Update – June 14, 2016

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Daily Market Update – June 14, 2016 (8:15 AM)


The week looked like it may get off to a weaker start as we awaited Wednesday’s FOMC Statement release.

What wasn’t totally expected was just how weak it would get as the market fell back in line with the price of oil, something it hadn’t really done in the past 2 weeks.

There was also the pressure of very weak global markets and the strength of Treasury Notes, but the connection to oil was inescapable yesterday.

The market was sharply lower, then positive and then finished the day sharply lower.

All of that was in perfect concert with oil’s moves.

Today, in the futures trading, oil is again weak, but the market isn’t as low as it could be.

Today, maybe there will be a little more focus on interest rates, but we really won’t get any news until tomorrow.

After that event and Janet Yellen’s press conference, attention can then turn to Great Britain and its vote on whether to remain part of the European Union.

That of course will be quickly forgotten as we then move onto something else, like maybe the upcoming Employment Situation Report and how upward revisions could lead to something substantive coming from July’s FOMC meeting.

But there’s still the rest of this week to deal with.

I added more oil in the hopes of continuing to take advantage of those steep premiums.

Even if the timing proves to be wrong, those premiums make it easier to wait until the timing is no longer an issue.

I don’t think that I’ll be spending any more money this week, but you never know.

I’d be very happy to simply generate some rollover income for the week and as with yesterday’s rollover of a deep in the money position, right now, I’d rather take the premiums than take assignment, even as that would add to cash reserves.

Otherwise, there’s probably not much to watch today and maybe even less to do.

Unless there are some big surprises tomorrow, maybe even if only in the words used to describe the economy, there isn’t much reason for any large moves, although reason is usually not necessary.