Daily Market Update – June 28, 2016

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Daily Market Update – June 28, 2016 (7:45 AM)


The drama will continue today, as the leader of the “Brexit” movement today addressed the European Union and basically urged other countries to do the same as Great Britain, which will likely become a little less great in the coming year.

The bounce I expected to come in the early morning yesterday was pre-empted by David Cameron’s appearance in Parliament and the market really didn’t like what it had heard.

It was basically a reality check that said democracy rules in a democratic society.

Although I thought that it would be a quiet day for me, it may have been the busiest Monday in about 6 or more months, with the opportunity to open 2 new positions and rollover 2 others.

Those rollovers were a bit early and were done in an attempt to keep milking the great income producing machines that the gold related stocks have been over the past year or more.

I fully expect that by December much, if not all of the gains seen in those stocks will be lost, but I do like their ability to generate recurrent income through thick and thin.

While yesterday didn’t bring the rebound, this morning may, as the futures are still showing triple digit gains in the DJIA, although well off their early highs, as the rest of the world had some snap back.

The snap back, although welcome, has still come nowhere close to erasing the declines seen in the past 2 trading sessions.

If today sticks to the script, the expectation shouldn’t be for sustainable gains, as you tend to expect people to bail out as stocks are making back some of their steep losses.

There was, however, some good signs yesterday.

Once again, there really wasn’t any panic and maybe more importantly, there was actually buying heading into the final hour, even as there was a reported large imbalance on the sell side.

Funny how those things seem to work out.

The expectation was for more selling going into the close and precisely the opposite happened.

I doubt that I will be buying anything additional for the rest of the week, but I would definitely take advantage of any opportunity to roll positions over or to sell calls on uncovered positions.

But that isn’t any different from what I would have wanted to have done before “Brexit.”

Maybe, like so many things, the big story of the day means nothing a couple of days later, as something new grabs attention.

Unless some more shoes drop in the European Union, the story may be over until the recession so widely predicted finally happens in Great Britain, although those predictions have a funny way of not working out.


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Daily Market Update – June 27, 2016 (Close)

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Daily Market Update – June 27, 2016 (Close)


One really has to wonder what people were thinking when they voted to leave the European Union.

Reportedly, Great Britain was actually getting a pretty sweet deal.

Relative to what it put into the bowl, it sounds as if Great Britain was the West Virginia of the EU, yet they still gave the European Union the Byrd.

Did no one think to poll Northern Ireland and Scotland?

Given England’s opposition to Scotland leaving the United Kingdom last year and the support to remain in the EU by Scottish citizens, someone should have realized that there was a problem in the making there.

Beyond that, how could people so blatantly overlook their own financial interests?

Xenophobia is a strong motivator, I suppose.

It will be interesting to see how strong voter’s remorse may turn out to be, but the idea and talk of another vote, as more than 4 million signatures have already been collected is pretty wild and probably unprecedented.

This morning’s futures were not showing any bounce to Friday’s 600 point loss.

The usual script would have the loss continue until about 10 AM and then some kind of a meaningful bounce would occur.

That meaningful bounce usually gives way to more pronounced selling that often leaves the market deeper in the hole.

The bounce higher is often a strong lure and not so easy to withstand.

That 10 AM bounce never came though, as that was about the time that outgoing British Prime Minister, and on the wrong side of public opinion on the topic at hand, spoke to Britains and the world.

I liked what I heard, but investors didn’t care for it too much.

We stood 5% below the all time high on the S&P 500 this morning and there was easily some more downside, since we are only a couple of percentage points below the near term high which was hit just a week or two ago.

With 5 ex-dividend positions this week I may already have the income that I want for the week, but am still interested in the possibility of adding some additional positions this week, despite the risk that exists.

With no positions set to expire, I would like to do something more than just listen to everyone offer their opinions and pontificate on the meaning of everything that happened last week and what more can happen down the road.

If we are to believe that the usual mechanism of the market is to discount the future by about 6 months, then the prediction of a recession in Great Britain by early 2017 may be what is driving the market down further this morning.

I was as rapt as I thought I would be during the day, even as the words fell onto deaf ears.

What I wasn’t expecting was to make as many trades as I did and I even had another one or
two that I had tried to make.

Hopefully, I won’t have any regret later in the week, as did many Brexit voters.



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Daily Market Update – June 27, 2016

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Daily Market Update – June 27, 2016 (8:30 AM)


One really has to wonder what people were thinking when they voted to leave the European Union.

Reportedly, Great Britain was actually getting a pretty sweet deal.

Relative to what it put into the bowl, it sounds as if Great Britain was the West Virginia of the EU, yet they still gave tthe European Union the Byrd.

Did no one think to poll Northern Ireland and Scotland?

Given England’s opposition to Scotland leaving the United Kingdom last year and the support to remain in the EU by Scottish citizens, someone should have realized that there was a problem in the making there.

Beyond that, how could people so blatantly overlook their own financial interests?

Xenophobia is a strong motivator, I suppose.

It will be interesting to see how strong voter’s remorse may turn out to be, but the idea and talk of another vote, as more than 2 million signatures have already been collected is pretty wild and probably unprecedented.

This morning’s futures are not showing any bounce to Friday’s 600 point loss.

The usual script would have the loss continue until about 10 AM and then some kind of a meaningful bounce occurs.

That meaningful bounce usually gives way to more pronounced selling that often leaves the market deeper in the hole.

The bounce higher is often a strong lure and not so easy to withstand.

We stand 5% below the all time high on the S&P 500 this morning and there is easily some more downside, since we are only a couple of percentage points below the near term high which was hit just a week or two ago.

With 5 ex-dividend positions this week I may already have the income that I want for the week, but am still interested in the possibility of adding some additional positions this week, despite the risk that exists.

With no positions set to expire, I would like to do something more than just listen to everyone offer their opinions and pontificate on the meaning of everything that happened last week and what more can happen down the road.

If we are to believe that the usual mechanism of the market is to discount the future by about 6 months, then the prediction of a recession in Great Britain by early 2017 may be what is driving the market down further this morning.

I will be rapt this morning, even as the words will fall onto deaf ears.



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Dashboard – June 27 – July 1, 2016

 

 

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:   The futures aren’t indicating any post-“Brexit” bounce and that may make things more interesting as the morning unfolds.

TUESDAY:   This morning may finally have the bounce, which hopefully secures the outcome of the positions opened yesterday and expiring this week.

WEDNESDAY:  Buying into the close on Monday may have been a sign of Tuesday’s bounce and that buying into the close continued on Tuesday, as well. This morning’s futures are again pointing nicely higher, as a result

THURSDAY:  After all of the tumult of the past few days the S&P 500 is down only 2% from where it left off right before the Brexit vote. This morning is trying to whittle down the loss even further

FRIDAY:.  Today may be a much warranted day of rest before a long holiday weekend.

 

 

 



 

                                                                                                                                           

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Weekly Summary

  

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Weekend Update – June 26, 2016

 A week ago, the world was getting ready for what all the polls had been predicting.

Only those willing to book bets seemed to have a different opinion.

Polls indicated that Great Britain was going to vote to leave the European Union, but those willing to put their money where their mouths were, didn’t agree.

Then suddenly there was a shift, perhaps due to the tragic murder of a proponent of keeping the EU intact.

That shift was seen not only in the polls, but in markets.

Suddenly, everyone was of the belief that British voters would do the obviously right thing and vote with their economic health in mind, first and foremost.

The funny thing is that it’s pretty irrational to expect rational behavior.

In a real supreme measure of confidence, just look at the 5 day performance of the S&P 500 leading up to the vote.

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