Daily Market Update – April 25, 2016

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – April 25, 2016 (9:00 AM)


There’s so much going on this week, that it may only make sense that the market may be taking a break to get things underway.

In addition to lots and lots of systemically important earnings reports during the course of the week, there is an FOMC Statement release and the GDP release the following day.

Add to that the continuing creep higher of oil and commodities and there shouldn’t be too much of a shortage of events that could catalyze movements in either direction.

What we know so far from earnings is that it’s alright to have mediocre numbers, as long as those mediocre numbers at least had the decency to meet already lowered expectations.

If there were even worse than what was expected or the company continued to guide lower for the next quarter, there was a whole world of hurt awaiting.

Lots of stocks reporting earnings fell into that latter category last week and there were some really big movers.

What there wasn’t much of were really big movers to the upside, even as the market did finish higher for the week.

This week I do have some cash and am willing to dip into the smaller cash reserve than I would like to have.

With 3 ex-dividend positions and one contract expiring this week there is already some income, but as is usually the case, I’d like more.

There are some uncovered positions that may be ready to finally find some cover. For those, I’m not necessarily looking to make a killing, even as their holding periods may have been far too long.

Mostly, I just want to either add to my cash reserve or have some other opportunity to generate regular income from dead money.

While doing so, I’d at least like it to be the case that the position, once closed lost only in terms of opportunity.

While even that is too much, it’s better than losing in the absolute.

With some big events for the week occurring after we pass the mid-way mark, I’m not too keen on putting more at risk, but some of the earnings related trades have some appeal.

There’s not too much reason, for example, to think that Facebook is going to be even more adversely impacted by the FOMC Statement or the GDP.

You and I might be adversely impacted, and maybe advertisers will cut back a little, but is Twitter or Facebook really that sensitive to the kinds of events that investors try to game?


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Dashboard – April 25 – 29, 2016

 

 

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:   It’s a big week ahead with lots of earnings, an FOMC Statement release and the GDP, but markets look like they may open the day flat

TUESDAY:   Stocks recovered nicely from their lows yesterday to finish fairly flat. This morning’s open looks to be the same, even as most of the days right before the FOMC Statement release for the past few years have been strongly positive.

WEDNESDAY: Last night’s large earnings disappointments seem to be offset by stronger oil prices in the futures trading, as we get ready for the FOMC Statement release in the afternoon

THURSDAY: Last night’s closing bell brought some decent earnings after a no surprise FOMC Statement release. This morning, as oil is flat, the market is trying to give up all of the small gains for the week.

FRIDAY:.  After yesterday’s big Icahn inspired decline, the week looks as if it may come to a quiet end

 

 

 



 

                                                                                                                                           

Today's TradesCash-o-Meter

 

 

 





 “SNEAK PEEK AT NEXT WEEK” APPEARS ON FRIDAYS

Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Summary

  

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Weekend Update – April 24, 2016

Most of us can recall a time when we were embarrassed, unless you need for denial is a stronger than your memory.

It’s probably much worse when there are a lot of people around as witnesses.

It may be even worse if your antics are under embargo, finally being released at 2 PM, say on a Wednesday, and then really called into question the following day with the planned release of the GDP.

There’s nothing like being under the spotlight, especially when purposefully bringing attention to yourself and then somehow messing up.

I imagine, that even as poised and calm as she appears as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, a young Janet Yellen may have been as easily subject to embarrassment as a child as any of us.

Obviously, I also imagine that the hairdo hasn’t changed over the years.

Of course, it could be really helpful to know what the actual GDP statistic will be and having your performance altered to meet the demands of reality.

This coming week has an FOMC Statement release which is followed barely 20 hours later by news of the GDP for the first quarter of 2016.

As the FOMC meeting gets underway on Tuesday, there is no doubt awareness of the consensus calling for lackluster GDP growth and the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s own decreased estimate just a few weeks ago.

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Week In Review – April 18 – 22, 2016

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

APRIL 18 – 22, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
1  /  1 1 1 0   /   0 0   /   1 0 1

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

April 18 – 22, 2016


This was one of the best weeks that I can remember in a long, long time.< /strong>

For the market it was a decent week, but for a change, most everything went well on a personal note.

There was a single new position opened for the week and it out-performed both the adjusted and unnadjusted S&P 500 by 2.1%

That was just pure luck, though.

That position ended the week 2.6% higher, while the S&P 500 was 0.5% higher on the week.

Even better was that existing positions, continuing to find strength in energy, commodities and really all around, ended the week 1.4% higher than the S&P 500.

The only negatives were that there were no assignments and one short position got assigned.

With no assignments, closed positions continue to be 7.8% higher, while the comparable performance for the S&P 500 during the same holding periods has been 2.7% higher. That represents a 189.2% difference in return on closed positions. Unfortunately, though, there are very few closed positions on the year.

I’m not quite certain what the theme was this week.

Sure, there were earnings and sure, oil was higher on the week, but I’m not really certain what made the market do what it did.

Mostly, I find the last two days of the week, when some big names disappointed, to be pretty optimistic.

Up until then, the market had been happy with earnings beating lowered expectations.

But the fact that it could brutally punish some names for not only missing earnings, but continuing to provide lower guidance, yet still close higher, is pretty impressive.

I was just happy to have made a trade and gotten a chance to roll it over, while at the same time being able to sell calls on an uncovered position.

There was only a single ex-dividend position, but all in all, getting some income for the week, while watching asset value continue to climb nicely higher, left me feeling pretty good.

With a little bit of  cash for next week, but less than I thought, as the one possible assignment turned into a rollover, I still am open to the idea of adding some new positions, especially since I have none expiring next week.

While there are 3 ex-dividend positions next week, I’d like to add to the income stream.

Other than earnings next week, which promises to make things busy, maybe an FOMC Statement and the GDP release the following day could shake things up a bit.

I guess that if the FOMC announced a rate hike it would be pretty embarrassing if the GDP was flat, but you never do know.

For now, even as volatility falls, I hope that markets continue this move higher, as the bottom line is really all that matters and I do enjoy watching some recovery in beaten down energy and commodity prices, while it lasts.

I think that those increases can last, I’m just wondering how long the market will follow, but as long as it has already done so, why stop now?

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  M

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: M

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: WY

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: MAT, MRO

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  STX

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions  FAST (4/22 $0.30)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  F (2/27 $0.15), MS (2/27 $0.15), KMI (2/28 $0.125)

For the coming week the existing positio
ns have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



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Daily Market Update – April 22, 2016

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – April 22, 2016 (7:30 AM)


The Weekend Update will be posted by 10 PM tonight and the Week in Review will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: M

Expirations: STX puts**

**I may try to roll STX puts over, if the ex-dividend date is confirmed before today’s close. It is possible that the ex-dividend date could be as early as next week, in which case, I’d rather hold shares and potentially sell calls.

The following were ex-dividend this week:  FAST (4/22 $0.30)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  F (2/27 $0.15), MS (2/27 $0.15), KMI (2/28 $0.125)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT.


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