Daily Market Update – April 18, 2016 (Close)

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – April 18, 2016 (Close


The markets were buoyed last week by rumors that the world’s major oil producers, of course, not including the United States, were going to come to an agreement on reducing production.

That would have the intended result of increasing the price of oil, particularly as the issue seems to be supply related, rather than weak demand.

All of those oil ministers met on Sunday and just as was the case 2 months earlier, when markets exalted in news of a production cut, this one fell through, too.

On the ominous side, reportedly the new Saudi Arabian oil minister is a young and combative guy, who is willing to take great pain in order to inflict great pain.

The great pain he wants to inflict is upon Iran, who is responsible for each of the last two attempts to drop production having fallen through.

Unlike the last time, when the markets really expressed their unwarranted shock, this morning it seemed to be taking it all in stride.

It’s really hard to imagine that anyone really would have believed that Iran, after so many years of being limited in its sale of crude oil, would be now willing to take a cut, just as it is getting use to the flow of cash once again.

Hopefully, if oil continues lower, stocks won’t follow.

With crude oil down about 3% in the early trading, the muted response by stocks is a positive one, as the S&P 500 is, in a stealth sort of way, only about 3% away from its all time high.

Crude eventually recovered and stocks were reasonably healthy all throughout the session. It only took 20 minutes of trading at a loss before stocks turned positive and never looked back.

With a couple of assignments last week, I do have some additional cash to spend. With only one position as a potential rollover for the week and only one ex-dividend position, I wouldn’t have mind supplementing some of that income and was happy to actually make a trade.

With earnings getting underway with greater intensity this week and maybe with oil on the back burner, more emphasis could get placed on fundamentals.

Whether that’s good or bad is up for debate, but for now, the market seems to be accepting of earnings results that are mediocre, but still better than expected.

That’s usually what you do in life when your resolved to failure, but whatever works is fine by me.


Daily Market Update – April 18, 2016

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – April 18, 2016 (8:45 AM)


The markets were buoyed last week by rumpors that the world’s major oil producers, of course, not including the United States, were going to come to an agreement on reducing production.

That would have the intended result of increasing the price of oil, particularly as the issue seems to be supply related, rather than weak demand.

All of those oil ministers met on Sunday and just as was the case 2 months earlier, when markets exalted in news of a production cut, this one fell through, too.

On the oienous side, reportedly the new Saudi Arabian oil minister is a young and combative guy, who is willing to take great pain in order to inflict great pain.

The great pain he wants to inflict is upon Iran, who is responsible for each of the last two attempts to drop production having fallen through.

Unlike the last time, when the markets really expressed their unwarranted shock, this morning seems to be taking it in stride.

It’s really hard to imagine that anyone really would have believed that Iran, after so many years of being limited in its sale of crude oil, would be now willing to take a cut, just as it is getting use to the flow of cash once again.

Hopefully, if oil continues lower, stocks won’t follow.

With crude oil down about 3% in the early trading, the muted response by stocks is a positive one, as the S&P 500 is, in a stealth sort of way, only about 3% away from its all time high.

With a couple of assignments last week, I do have some addittional cash to spend. With only one position as a potential rollover for the week and only one ex-dividend position, I wouldn’t mind supplementing some of that income.

With earnings getting underway with greater intensity this week and maybe with oil on the back burner, more emphasis could get placed on fundamentals.

Whether that’s good or bad is up for debate, but for now, the market seems to be accepting of earnings results that are mediocre, but still better than expected.

That’s usually what you do in life when your resolved to failure, but whatever works is fine by me.


Dashboard – April 18 – 22, 2016

 

 

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:   The week opens with no surprise. Oil producers failed to come to the agreement that was rumored. The real surprise is that markets are cautious in their give backs of last week’s oil inspired gains. Maybe we’ll concentrate on earnings, instead.

TUESDAY:  Another good day appears to be at hand, even as earnings aren’t reflecting anything other than being able to meet or exceed lowered expectations. Meanwhile oil is up strongly again as Doha is all but forgotten

WEDNESDAY: Stocks managed a gain yesterday. This morning it’s being given back, but not by as much as the decline in oil might have ordinarily resulted in. Maybe earnings will keep the illusion going, a the bar to be disappointed is lowered even further.

THURSDAY: Maybe another quiet day awaits, as more earnings pour in, although yesterday the earnings related news wasn’t all bad, The strategy of under promising and then meeting those lowered expectations seems to be working, however, as stocks have been steadily climbing higher, although oil’s ascent can’t be minimized.

FRIDAY:.  Markets followed oil lower yesterday, but started seeing some large earnings related declines during the session and then some more disappointments after the close. Futures this morning, however, are not reflecting overnight damage

 

 

 



 

                                                                                                                                           

Today's TradesCash-o-Meter

 

 

 





 “SNEAK PEEK AT NEXT WEEK” APPEARS ON FRIDAYS

Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Summary

  

Weekend Update – April 17, 2016

I find myself uttering the phrase “Any day now,” more and more, but I know that I’m not alone in doing so.

Over the past few years there have been any number of reasons to believe that whatever predominant theme had the lion’s share of the headlines would soon run its course.

Nothing lasts forever but the earth and sky, so its only reasonable to expect that each passing day brings us closer to the conclusion of whatever current trend we’re mired in. But unlike the prisoner counting the days down, we’re in an open ended system.

The prisoner looks toward a future that he knows, with a great degree of certainty, will come along, pending good behavior. After all, the sentencing judge told him when that day would arrive. On the other hand, those of us who only have the potential to be white collar criminals are reliant on the past repeating itself and we use the past as a guide for forming our expectations.

Lately, that model hasn’t been very good.

Those who have been of the belief that history repeats itself have started taking a long and longer view if they’re still to hold onto their belief that repeating history is inevitable.

For the longest time the refrain was brought up over and over again as we found ourselves waiting for a 10% correction.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha

 

Week in Review – April 11 – 15, 2016

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

APRIL 11 – 15, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
0  /  1 1 1 2   /   0 0   /   0 0 0

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

April 11 – 15, 2016


This was just another in a series of weeks that have characterized 2016. Which is exactly what I said last week, maybe even the week before, as well.< /strong>

Once again, there was absolutely nothing of fundamental value to inspire markets in either direction.

Instead, it continues to be all about oil and rumors about oil.

This week the news was that at the end of the week we would see Saudi Arabia and Russia agree to oil production decreases.

We went through that rumor a couple of months ago and when it didn’t materialize, markets gave back all of their gains.

We’ll see what Monday brings as there are already murmurings about Russia’s cooperation, just as the previous agreement was undone by Iran’s unwillingness to participate in basic economic fundamentals.

In the meantime, there was one new positioned opened for the week and it seriously under-performed the unadjusted S&P 500 by 7.3% and the adjusted S&P 500 by 5.6%

It was 5.7% lower, while the unadjusted S&P 500 finished the week % higher and the adjusted S&P 500 ended the week % lower.

At least existing positions offered some comfort as they beat the performance of the S&P 500 for the week finishing 0.9% better than the overall market and for a change wasn’t a hollow victory, as those positions did manage to move 2.5% higher on the week.

There were also two assignments, adding to the paltry few for 2016.

Those positions are 7.8% higher, while the comparable performance for the S&P 500 during the same holding periods has been 2.7% higher. That represents a 189.2% difference in return on closed positions. Unfortunately, though, there are very few closed positions on the year.

This was just another week of the same old stuff, except that for the most part stocks went higher.

It was all about oil, even as earnings started to trickle out.

With banks beginning to report and at least not stinking the place up, there is some hope that the ensuing weeks could yet bring something positive to bear.

With some of the latest economic data that has been coming through, there isn’t too much reason to believe that the consumer has come to life and that we’ll see evidence of that in the past quarter’s earnings, but after a few years of waiting for exactly that to happen, sooner or later it will have to be the case.

That’s just like having been waiting for the past 2 years for oil to start recovering in price.

That “sooner or later” stuff gets old pretty fast, but it’s hard to walk away from that belief.

With one assignment this week, there’s a little more cash to fuel some purchases, but 2016 has just been so slow, that I’m not terribly convinced that I’ll let go of any cash next week.

With no positions up for rollover and only a single ex-dividend position next week, I’d love to have some additional opportunity to generate some cash, but I’ll be waiting along with others to see what happens with the weekend meeting of the big oil producers.

While stocks and oil weren’t in total lock step this week, a big move in oil in either direction could change that very quickly, although I think that the handwriting is finally on the wall for that association to be coming to its rational end.

But here, too, the sooner or later approach has been much more heavily weighted on the “later” part of the equation.

I’m ready for something in the here and now.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  STX (puts)

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: HPQ

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: STX

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: MAT, MRO

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions  none

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  FAST (4/22 $0.30)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.