Month after month of seeing market gains finally came to an end in August. The streak had started in November 2012 and for those who are prone to remember oddities, we even had a string of 20 consecutive gaining Tuesdays during that span.
Of course we also eclipsed the 2007 Dow Jones and S&P 500 highs and subsequently did so on repeated occasions, all while “Chicken Littles” like me kept waiting for the correction that never came.
The small head fake correction that began near the end of May was barely a blip and was quickly erased as more new highs were established, but the trading patterns of August seemed to indicate that perhaps the rally was getting tired and the market not only began sputtering, but also lost ground as Syrian related tensions were in the air.
Anxious to see a modest correction so that I would finally have something constructive to do with the cash I had been raising, I wasn’t terribly happy with what would come in September, with the first seven trading days having seen gains.
Not only did they make gains, but there were three consecutive triple digit gains. Adding insult to injury was the root cause of those triple digit gains.
While avoiding the use of military force, at least in the near term, is somewhat comforting, the very idea that a Russian proposed plan could avert military action against Syria was about as implausible as anything that occurred in the 20th or 21st centuries, with the possible exception of the Russian President speaking directly to American citizens through an op-ed piece in the New York TImes (NYT).
Russian peace plan? Can those words even possibly all be in a single paragraph?
But with fear centered around uncertainty regarding military action against Syria temporarily tabled, the market ignored August and also ignored the historical nature of Septembers past. By Friday morning, just seconds after the opening bell, all of August’s losses had been recovered.
Somehow, I am neurologically incapable of saying “Thank you, Vladimir.”
Instead, the increasingly nervous part of me wonders what there is that awaits that will continue to send markets higher? Are there unseen catalysts or are there now more opportunities for disappointment, particularly if Russian efforts, inspired by an off the cuff remark by Secretary of State Kerry, prove to be inadequate?
I’ve been asking questions in a similar vein for months now, but the answer has always been in the affirmative, even if the catalysts weren’t always apparent.
Of course, now there’s also the question of the market’s reaction to the expected announcement of the nomination of Lawrence Summers as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. The rumor that such an announcement would come today was denied, but that should come as no surprise, as President Obama had his heart set on doing so by attaching a banner to a Tomahawk missile.
If Syria fails to deliver a market correction and neither fear of the “Taper” nor the nomination of Summers can do so, at least we will have Congress back and fully engaged so that a new round of budget crises can at least allow the market to bounce up and down, which is far more healthy for someone relying on a covered option strategy. If that happens, I can hold my head up high and point to a momentary drop lower and sat “See? That correction.”
As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum and “PEE” categories this week (see details).
I’ve only opened a limited number of new positions in the last few weeks and don’t anticipate seeing that pattern change this week, unless there is a substantive near term correction to last week’s price increases. Those increases, for example, are the reason why I have no Double Dip Dividend selections this coming week, as the risk of experiencing some price pullbacks outweighs the benefits of garnering option premiums and dividends. As it is, instead of the usual number of potential selections, this week’s list contains only 5 names.
Certainly a controversial place to begin looking in the new week is Apple (AAPL). I purchased shares last week following the large drop on Wednesday when disappointment began to settle in for varied reasons. The small recovery that I was expecting never really came, but instead of being disappointed by the inability to quickly close my position, I think that there is simply continued opportunity to pick up additional shares. However, as opposed to the rare instance of having purchased shares and not immediately having sold calls, I do plan to do so this time around if adding shares.
Apple, while not necessarily making significant changes to its product line is making significant changes to the way it conducts its business. From a trade-in program, to less expensive models, to not taking pre-orders on the upcoming iPhone 5S, to dividends and buybacks, they are shaking up their daily approach to existence on all fronts. From my vantage point the short term emphasis is that “cash is king” and that share price matters. I especially like Tim Cook’s philosophy that market share isn’t as important as having enough money to be in control of one’s destiny. The recent product announcements should see to it that the cash keeps pouring in and helps to secure that destiny.
Continuing with the controversial theme is Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF). I had written about the possibility of adding shares recently, but did not do so. Instead, I continued selling calls on a lower priced lot of shares to try and continue to offset substantial paper losses from older lots. That’s a slow process but I think at this current level the process can be speeded up by adding more shares. Highly levered to economic news from China does add to the risk of ownership, but Cliffs has been demonstrating some price stability at this level.
I may as well add to the controversy with Phillip Morris (PM). Whatever your opinions are about ownership of a company that directly results in countless premature deaths, it’s hard to overlook their move to increase the dividend and the reasonably narrow range in which shares trade. Combine those attributes with an appealing option premium and you have a combination that’s hard to resist and doesn’t even require nicotine to keep you hooked.
They say that there’s no such thing as bad publicity, although JP Morgan (JPM) may disagree. However, if you want to see the poster child for resilience you don’t have to look much further than this company. After an avalanche of bad news, having inherited the burden from Goldman Sachs (GS), JP Morgan has somehow been able to keep its share price respectably positioned. This week it announced plans to commit nearly $6 Billion toward legal defenses and compliance. In addition to an option premium that provides some comfort, shares will be ex-dividend during the October 2013 option cycle so I may consider using a longer term option sale and would actually welcome early assignment.
Finally, while earnings season is set to begin again in just a few weeks, Oracle (ORCL) is a laggard and reports this week. With the upcoming report the company will have had six months to make some changes, whether substantive or purely optical, to create a more positively received report. Following two successive negative reports that were not well received by the market, I think that its inconceivable that Larry Ellison would allow his name to be badly tarnished again by anything other than his own words and actions. No doubt that he is unhappy with share performance since that first disappointment.
While I usually like to consider earnings related trades on the basis of selling deep out of the money puts, Oracle may work equally well as an outright purchase and sale of calls. In the event of another price meltdown I would not go out of my way to greet Ellison if you see him in Lanai, although I don’t believe the police department was included with the sale of the island.
Traditional Stocks: JP Morgan Chase, Phillip Morris
Momentum Stocks: Apple, Cliffs Natural Resources
Double Dip Dividend: none
Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: Oracle (9/11 PM)
Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. The above selections may be become actionable, most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts, in adjustment to and consideration of market movements. The over-riding objective is to create a healthy income stream for the week with reduction of trading risk.
Disclosure: I am long AAPL, CLF. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: I may initiate positions, add shares or sell puts in AAPL, CLF, JPM, ORCL and PM
Copyright 2013 TheAcsMan