Daily Market Update – April 14, 2015 (Close)

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – April 14, 2015  (Close)

 

It started this morning with Johnson and Johnson reporting, then followed by JP Morgan and Wells Fargo.

Those three have a combined market capitalization that so large that it’s even about 10% larger than that of Apple.

But the good news is that the first 2 major banks to report did nothing to surprise markets and actually beat on revenues.

Johnson and Johnson, which was the first of this season to report with significant currency considerations did report the effects of the stronger dollar and did reduce forward guidance, but as expected, investors were prepared to hear that kind of news. More importantly, the news wasn’t so bad as to have exceeded those expectations.

That’s a good start for what may still be a challenging few weeks ahead, but at the very least the major banks do very often at least set a tone when they’re not behaving badly and thus far this morning the behavior is unremarkable and restrained.

The market too, during its pre-open futures trading is equally restrained and unremarkable.

Given the 3 options of behavior that existed as earnings season gets underway, the same 3 options that exist every day, being restrained and unremarkable can be a good one, if it’s sustained for a while and if any deviations from restraint are soon brought back into line.

Given a portfolio of holdings, some of which are covered, some of which are longing for cover, you can have different hopes for what trend the broader market will be following.

If I had all positions covered I would love seeing a restrained, unremarkable and flat market with occasional punctuations higher and lower. That would make a nice environment for rollovers. That’s the best of all situations when you just roll over position after position and see the income come in on a regular basis.

But when there are uncovered positions the hope is for the ability to see new cover and that typically requires the kind of high tide that pulls everything along. That usually also leads to assignments and rollovers, as well.

So with all of those uncovered positions a flat and restrained market just won’t do it.

While it’s definitely better than a downward moving market at this moment, I’d still like to see this morning’s earnings reports perhaps be the first among a series of non-disappointing reports, that could perhaps serve as the fuel for a move higher.

Until more positions are covered there’s no reason to want to see a lower move by the market. Those are nice to have when you’re sitting on a pile of cash or had a large portion of your holding suddenly called away by a large move higher.

I don’t think that’s going to be the case, although this week’s expiring positions are still in good shape for assignment if the market can avoid any large move lower.

This morning’s early indications following the earnings releases of Johnson and Johnson, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo at least gave some hope for the prospects of the rest of the week. It was nice to see the market trade
reasonably well for the day, especially continuing some recovery in energy positions after the rough day last Friday.

With Intel releasing its earnings this afternoon and the post-sessions market’s first response being a positive one, there’s at least some hope that currency headwinds won’t be the kind of drag that was feared, although there’s still lots more to go.

 

 

 

 

Click here for reuse options!
Copyright 2015 TheAcsMan

Daily Market Update – April 14, 2015

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – April 14, 2015  (8:30 AM)

 

It started this morning with Johnson and Johnson reporting, then followed by JP Morgan and Wells Fargo.

Those three have a combined market capitalization that so large that it’s even about 10% larger than that of Apple.

But the good news is that the first 2 major banks to report did nothing to surprise markets and actually beat on revenues.

Johnson and Johnson, which was the first of this season to report with significant currency considerations did report the effects of the stronger dollar and did reduce forward guidance, but as expected, investors were prepared to hear that kind of news. More importantly, the news wasn’t so bad as to have exceeded those expectations.

That’s a good start for what may still be a challenging few weeks ahead, but at the very least the major banks do very often at least set a tone when they’re not behaving badly and thus far this morning the behavior is unremarkable and restrained.

The market too, during its pre-open futures trading is equally restrained and unremarkable.

Given the 3 options of behavior that existed as earnings season gets underway, the same 3 options that exist every day, being restrained and unremarkable can be a good one, if it’s sustained for a while and if any deviations from restraint are soon brought back into line.

Given a portfolio of holdings, some of which are covered, some of which are longing for cover, you can have different hopes for what trend the broader market will be following.

If I had all positions covered I would love seeing a restrained, unremarkable and flat market with occasional punctuations higher and lower. That would make a nice environment for rollovers. That’s the best of all situations when you just roll over position after position and see the income come in on a regular basis.

But when there are uncovered positions the hope is for the ability to see new cover and that typically requires the kind of high tide that pulls everything along. That usually also leads to assignments and rollovers, as well.

So with all of those uncovered positions a flat and restrained market just won’t do it.

While it’s definitely better than a downward moving market at this moment, I’d still like to see this morning’s earnings reports perhaps be the first among a series of non-disappointing reports, that could perhaps serve as the fuel for a move higher.

Until more positions are covered there’s no reason to want to see a lower move by the market. Those are nice to have when you’re sitting on a pile of cash or had a large portion of your holding suddenly called away by a large move higher.

I don’t think that’s going to be the case, although this week’s expiring positions are still in good shape for assignment if the market can avoid any large move lower.

This morning’s early indications following the earnings releases of Johnson and Johnson, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo at least give some hope for the prospects of the rest of the week.

&nbs
p;

 

 

 

Click here for reuse options!
Copyright 2015 TheAcsMan

Daily Market Update – April 13, 2015 (Close)

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – April 13, 2015  (Close)

 

While there are some economic reports of interest this week they’re not likely to be anywhere near as important as the real beginning of earnings season this week.

It may have started with Alcoa last week, but tomorrow begins the series of reports from the major money center banks.

While they can do well and not bring the rest of the market higher with it, it’s not to common for those banks to report disappointing earnings and then to see the rest of the market thrive. However, that was the case in the final quarter of 2014, when the relatively disappointing earnings reports from the banks didn’t drag markets lower.

So it could happen.

This time around there aren’t really great expectations for the banks and instead most attention is going to be focused on those companies that may have significant currency exposure, such as Intel, which also reports this week.

We’ve been talking and fretting for so long about currency impact that you would have to think that it would have to be much worse than expected for the actual reports to bring stocks down very much. You might also think that companies with lots of cash overseas and earning lots of money overseas are involved in fairly sophisticated currency hedging that would finally start to pay off.

However, coming off a relatively strong 2 weeks to start April after a really disappointing March, there’s room to give up some of those recent gains. On the other hand, though, April is just an historically strong month for markets and our lowered expectations for earnings may be just the environment necessary for the next phase higher.

Each of those is reasonable and we’ll find out soon enough whether there is enough contained in the upcoming earnings reports to push markets higher, as we’re running out of other reasons to see growth.

At this point it looks as if we’re going back to good old fundamentals, which normally would be a good thing, unless some one comes up with the realization that current levels are just artificially so high and to a degree are based on engineering of EPS data through years of buy backs that have probably now seen their peak.

Just look at the performance of GE today, just a day after its 10% gain following announcement of a $50 Billion buyback that will be funded from selling its non-industrial pieces. Never mind that those pieces were now making money.

That GE buyback may truly have been the peak of the corporate strategy that has been soaking up shares and helping to create an illusion of greater comparative earnings.

GE actually reports earnings this week, too. That could be interesting.

With only a single assignment last week I’m not expecting to be very actively looking for new positions this week, just as last week was restrained.

With a number of positions set to expire this Friday as the monthly cycle comes to its end, I’d be very happy to have a repeat of last week. Being able to get rollovers done and execute the sale of some calls on existed uncovered positions would satisfy my need to generate income for the week.

However, as much as I was happy with last week, this week I would like to see some more emphasis on the assignment side of the equation.

At the moment a number of positions are candidates for assignment but it’s not a done deal until the final closing bell rings on Friday and even then it’s not really a done deal until as much as another 90 minutes passes.

So I won’t be making too many plans with all of that money from assignments that still may not ever become reality until they do.

However, with the likelihood of at least some and with the additional likelihood of at least being able to get some rollovers accomplished, any new positions may equally look at expirations this Friday or in some future weeks.

With volatility getting lower and lower and bringing premiums down, as well, there’s not too much attraction for looking at the extended weekly options unless earnings come into play and help to boost up some premiums.

The market appeared to be getting ready to open the week on a flat note, so the early direction could have then gone anywhere, but it ended up getting progressively weaker as the day wore on, in the complete absence of news.

For whatever there was today the week won’t begin for real until tomorrow morning when JP Morgan and Wells Fargo get it all going.

 

Click here for reuse options!
Copyright 2015 TheAcsMan

Daily Market Update – April 13 – 16, 2005

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – April 13, 2015  (7:30 AM)

 

While there are some economic reports of interest this week they’re not likely to be anywhere near as important as the real beginning of earnings season this week.

It may have started with Alcoa last week, but tomorrow begins the series of reports from the major money center banks.

While they can do well and not bring the rest of the market higher with it, it’s not to common for those banks to report disappointing earnings and then to see the rest of the market thrive. However, that was the case in the final quarter of 2014, when the relatively disappointing earnings reports from the banks didn’t drag markets lower.

So it could happen.

This time around there aren’t really great expectations for the banks and instead most attention is going to be focused on those companies that may have significant currency exposure, such as Intel, which also reports this week.

We’ve been talking and fretting for so long about currency impact that you would have to think that it would have to be much worse than expected for the actual reports to bring stocks down very much. You might also think that companies with lots of cash overseas and earning lots of money overseas are involved in fairly sophisticated currency hedging that would finally start to pay off.

However, coming off a relatively strong 2 weeks to start April after a really disappointing March, there’s room to give up some of those recent gains. On the other hand, though, April is just an historically strong month for markets and our lowered expectations for earnings may be just the environment necessary for the next phase higher.

Each of those is reasonable and we’ll find out soon enough whether there is enough contained in the upcoming earnings reports to push markets higher, as we’re running out of other reasons to see growth.

At this point it looks as if we’re going back to good old fundamentals, which normally would be a good thing, unless some one comes up with the realization that current levels are just artificially so high and to a degree are based on engineering of EPS data through years of buy backs that have probably now seen their peak.

With only a single assignment last week I’m not expecting to be very actively looking for new positions this week, just as last week was restrained.

With a number of positions set to expire this Friday as the monthly cycle comes to its end, I’d be very happy to have a repeat of last week. Being able to get rollovers done and execute the sale of some calls on existed uncovered positions would satisfy my need to generate income for the week.

However, as much as I was happy with last week, this week I would like to see some more emphasis onthe assignment side of the equation.

At the moment a number of positions are candidates for assignment but it’s not a done deal until the fiunal closing bell rings on Friday and even then it’s not really a done deal until as much as another 90 minutes passes.

So I won’t be making too many plans with all
of that money from assignments that still may not ever become reality until they do.

However, with the likelihood of at least some and with the additional likelihood of at least being able to get some rollovers accomplished, any new positions may equally look at expirations this Friday or in some future weeks.

With volatility getting lower and lower and bringing premiums down, as well, there’s not too much attraction for looking at the extended weekly options unless earnings come into play and help to boost up some premiums.

For now, the market appears to be getting ready to open the week on a flat note, so the early direction can be anywhere, as can the opportunities, but the week may not begin for real until tomorrow morning when JP Morgan and Wlls Fargo get it all going.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Click here for reuse options!
Copyright 2015 TheAcsMan

Dashboard – April 13 – 16, 2015

 

 

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:   Retail Sales and Industrial Production reports this week may give some information regarding the strength of the economy, but most eyes will be focused on earnings, especially from major banks and also Intel, to get an idea of what kind of currency impacts can be forthcoming

TUESDAY:    Earnings start for real this morning and both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo are in line, with at least no news to spook markets. Johnson and Johnson, with more on line in terms of currency exchange can make the same claim

WEDNESDAY: Lots more earnings to come and lots of Federal Reserve Governor speches, too. Markets look as if their bias is continuing to the upside as, so far, diminished expectations may be paying off

THURSDAY:  More good numbers from banks and Goldman Sachs, but it doesn’t look like it’s enough to prevent some early profit taking following yesterday’s session. Unfortunately, Netflix isn’t the kind of company that leads markets

FRIDAY: Get ready  to strap on as the monthly cycle comes to an end and futures following Europe sharply lower. Why? Does there really have to be a reason?

 

 

 


 



 

                                                                                                                                           

Today's TradesCash-o-Meter

 

 

 





 “SNEAK PEEK AT NEXT WEEK” APPEARS ON FRIDAYS

Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Summary

  

Click here for reuse options!
Copyright 2015 TheAcsMan