Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – July 5, 2016 (Close)

I used to not like it when the markets were closed on Mondays, but these days I welcome the chance to take a breather, even as I do less trading than in the past 10 years.

That’s not by design, as I would much rather be an active trader than a passive one.

Still, I do enjoy the one day respite from staring at a screen and a ticker crawl, particularly if neither are going to lead to anything worthwhile.

This week opened after a remarkable turnaround following a decline that probably shouldn’t have happened to the extent that it did.

This morning, just as the manner in which the previous week came to its close, it looked as if the market may have been ready to  take a little bit of a breather.

That’s likely a good thing as those all too rapid climbs that are still below resistance levels have a way of not holding up unless some new support levels are established.

A few days of quietude may be just the thing to go and surpass the previous high on the S&P 500.

This week does have a couple of important events, though and as the first day of trading came to its end, those important events come with the need to dig out from some moderate losses, that were less than they could have been.

Tomorrow, we get a release of the FOMC minutes for the last meeting. That was the meeting that we were beginning to expect an interest rate increase, but following the abysmal Employment Situation Report, it was really hard to justify.

Then, as the week comes to an end we have another Employment Situation Report and if it continues to disappoint, I think the market will look at it in the context of predictions for a recession in Great Britain and mindful of JP Morgan economists projections for here in the US.

But, if the numbers are good, especially if there’s a revision in the previous month, it may be off to the races.

Even as traders have in the past looked at the potential for an interest rate increase as being a bad thing, I think anything that says that the economy is healthier than we thought would be a good thing.

With a few assignments last week and only a single ex-dividend position this week and no expiring positions, I would still like to make some trades, even after opening one new position today.

As I did have my eye on some new positions this week, as outlined in the weekly Weekend Update, I was inclined to look at last week’s assignments as possible re-purchases, if they followed the market somewhat lower today.

At least one of those fit the bill and maybe the other will, as well.

As has been the case lately, with what few purchases I’ve been making, I like the idea of getting a high premium for a position that I think is near a bottom.

Those declines make people think that more are forthcoming and that drives up premiums.

While the market was only modestly lower this morning and oil down fairly sharply, I was very willing to part with some money, but will again be looking for short term positions as next week ushers in another earnings season.

The news today was just like old times. 

Weaker oil, a stronger dollar and worries about European banks.

Maybe the first two will be bett
er by tomorrow, but the latter has had a tendency to remain as a weight on the market for more than just a day at a time.

As always, we’ll see.

Daily Market Update – July 5, 2016 (8:00 AM)

I used to not like it when the markets were closed on Mondays, but these days I welcome the chance to take a breather, even as I do less trading than in the past 10 years.

That’s not by design, as I would much rather be an active trader than a passive one.

Still, I do enjoy the one day respite from staring at a screen and a ticker crawl, particularly if neither are going to lead to anything worthwhile.

This week opens after a remarkable turnaround following a decline that probably shouldn’t have happened to the extent that it did.

This morning, just as the manner in which the previous week came to its close, it looks as if the market may be taking a little bit of a breather.

That’s likely a good thing as those all too rapid climbs that are still below resistance levels have a way of not holding up unless some new support levels are established.

A few days of quietude may be just the thing to go and surpass the previous high on the S&P 500.

This week does have a couple of important events, though.

Tomorrow, we get a release of the FOMC minutes for the last meeting. That was the meeting that we were beginning to expect an interest rate increase, but following the abysmal Employment Situation Report, it was really hard to justify.

Then, as the week comes to an end we have another Employment Situation Report and if it continues to disappoint, I think the market will look at it in the context of predictions for a recession in Great Britain and mindful of JP Morgan economists projections for here in the US.

But, if the numbers are good, especially if there’s a revision in the previous month, it may be off to the races.

Even as traders have in the past looked at the potential for an interest rate increase as being a bad thing, I think anything that says that the economy is healthier than we thought would be a good thing.

With a few assignments last week and only a single ex-dividend position this week and no expiring positions, I would like to make some trades.

Even as I do have my eye on some new positions this week, as outlined in the weekly Weekend Update, I would be inclined to look at last week’s assignments as possible re-purchases, if they follow the market somewhat lower today.

AS has been the case lately, with what few purchases I’ve been making, I like the idea of getting a high premium for a position that I think is near a bottom.

Those declines make people think that more are forthcoming and that drives up premiums.

While the market is only modestly lower this morning and oil down fairly sharply, I am very willing to part with some money, but would again be looking for short term positions as next week ushers in another earnings season.

MONDAY:   Happy and safe Fourth of July to all

TUESDAY:   The markets, including oil, may be taking another breather today as the holiday shortened trading week ends with an Employment Situation Report and is interrupted mid-week with FOMC minutes

WEDNESDAY:  Oil was down yesterday, gold higher, interest rates lower and the dollar higher. All made for an environment to send the market lower for the first time in a week. This morning futures are again lower, although the market closed yesterday well off from its lows, but there isn’t much in the early going to give reason to continue yesterday’s relative late strength

THURSDAY:  A nice recovery yesterday afternoon and now the futures are flat, as we await tomorrow’s Employment Situation Report. That could do what it did last time and set off some fireworks or sow some confusion ahead of the next FOMC meeting.

FRIDAY:.  The Employment Situation Report comes this morning and a big bounce from last month is expected. What the reaction to that bounce will be is leading to some tentativeness in the futures this morning







Daily Market Update – July 1, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Monday at Noon.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  EBAY*, MRO*

Rollovers:   none

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:   CY (6/28 $0.11), DOW (6/28 $0.46), EMC (6/29 $0.11), WFM (6/29 $0.14), GPS (7/1 $0.23)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  CSCO (7/5 $0.26)

* In the event that a rollover is possible and able to provide an additionally 1% weekly ROI, I would prefer to rollover those positions, rather than accept assignment.

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT.

Daily Market Update – June 30, 2016 (Close)

After the past 3 days of gains, the pain felt from last Friday and this past Monday is almost erased.

At this point, as the morning’s futures were seeking to reduce the loss even more, the market was only 2% lower from where it left off last Thursday.

After hearing about how the 2 days of losses were the worst of the year, we are now hearing that the past 2 days were the best gains of the year.

Make that 3 days.

Well, at least since February, when Jamie Dimon may have single handedly turned the market around by spending $26 million of his own funds to pick up shares of his own company, that he felt had suddenly become well under-valued.

A couple of days ago that company was close to being back at its February 11th levels, but then broad based buying set in.

While yesterday’s close also had more buying characterize it, those closing gains weren’t as strong as the previous days, but the futures market is still looking to add more.

Today’s close, though, was still moving higher and higher.

With this kind of buying, or selling, for that matter, you never really know what will come first.

Will traders try to capitalize and head in the other direction in the fear that others will beat them to it and leave them holding the bag, or do they pile on for fear of getting left out from the celebrations ahead?

They certainly didn’t head in the other direction today and the buying strength at the close didn’t indicate any reversal for tomorrow, either.

As the market does head higher the technicians also begin exerting their influence and the emotions of fear and greed may take a back seat as traders have to deal with those annoying resistance levels.

Breaking one of those levels isn’t a guarantee of continued climbs higher, particularly as there is often testing of the level, but if the 2137 level is broke, tested and broken again, there may be lots of uncharted territory for further upside.

Those are lots of ifs, but before that point, is the 2112 level of just a week ago.

So it may be interesting to watch the market work its way higher as it ended today less than 1% below that 2012 level.

At this point I wouldn’t mind some consolidation and building a base or a support level and then trying to climb anew from there.

In the meantime, while overall volatility is dropping rapidly, some sectors still remain very attractive, even as their risk seems to be becoming less and less.

That may be where the opportunity awaits and that is where the opportunity has already been.