Daily Market Update – July 5, 2016 (8:00 AM)
I used to not like it when the markets were closed on Mondays, but these days I welcome the chance to take a breather, even as I do less trading than in the past 10 years.
That’s not by design, as I would much rather be an active trader than a passive one.
Still, I do enjoy the one day respite from staring at a screen and a ticker crawl, particularly if neither are going to lead to anything worthwhile.
This week opens after a remarkable turnaround following a decline that probably shouldn’t have happened to the extent that it did.
This morning, just as the manner in which the previous week came to its close, it looks as if the market may be taking a little bit of a breather.
That’s likely a good thing as those all too rapid climbs that are still below resistance levels have a way of not holding up unless some new support levels are established.
A few days of quietude may be just the thing to go and surpass the previous high on the S&P 500.
This week does have a couple of important events, though.
Tomorrow, we get a release of the FOMC minutes for the last meeting. That was the meeting that we were beginning to expect an interest rate increase, but following the abysmal Employment Situation Report, it was really hard to justify.
Then, as the week comes to an end we have another Employment Situation Report and if it continues to disappoint, I think the market will look at it in the context of predictions for a recession in Great Britain and mindful of JP Morgan economists projections for here in the US.
But, if the numbers are good, especially if there’s a revision in the previous month, it may be off to the races.
Even as traders have in the past looked at the potential for an interest rate increase as being a bad thing, I think anything that says that the economy is healthier than we thought would be a good thing.
With a few assignments last week and only a single ex-dividend position this week and no expiring positions, I would like to make some trades.
Even as I do have my eye on some new positions this week, as outlined in the weekly Weekend Update, I would be inclined to look at last week’s assignments as possible re-purchases, if they follow the market somewhat lower today.
AS has been the case lately, with what few purchases I’ve been making, I like the idea of getting a high premium for a position that I think is near a bottom.
Those declines make people think that more are forthcoming and that drives up premiums.
While the market is only modestly lower this morning and oil down fairly sharply, I am very willing to part with some money, but would again be looking for short term positions as next week ushers in another earnings season.