Category Archives: Daily Market Update

Daily Market Update – August 29, 2016 (7:30 AM)

It;s the final week of summer and the confusion about interest rates has now been all cleared up.

That is to say that there should be no confusion about the continuing confusion over the timing of those rate increases and their number during the remainder of 2016.

So that leaves this week’s Employment Situation Report and not much else.

That is, unless oil and stocks re-establish their strange relationship, which they seem to have done over the past week or two.

That doesn’t seem to be the case this morning as the futures are evolving, but this is likely to be a very quiet week on volume traded and some things may get exaggerated on the light volume.

With a little bit of cash to spend, I wouldn’t mind opening some new positions for the week, but would really love to have a repeat of last week.

Last week there were 2 rollovers and the sale of calls on two uncovered positions, in addition to having opened  a new position.

What was missing last week were any ex-dividend positions.

This week already has 4 ex-dividend positions so there is already some income accounted for, but it would be nice to add to those and especially to put more of those uncovered positions to work.

Last week’s single new position came on the last day of trading for the week, which is something that I don’t often do.

This week there is some considerable uncertainty with Friday’s data release, but I would probably execute any new position trades prior to then, especially if there’s a dividend capture in the equation, as well.

Otherwise, it may be a return to the quiet weeks that have been the hallmark of this summer.

This may, again, just be a good week to hang out at the beach.

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Daily Market Update – August 26, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: none

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:   none

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update – August 25, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The only things moving right now are energy and commodities, as stocks are taking a break.

Today, energy and commodities took a break right alongside stocks.

For the most part earnings haven’t really mattered in the broader picture as most everyone is now just waiting for the reality of an interest rate hike.

You would think that when that action finally comes that there would be a realization that the economy and the stocks that represent that economy would be worth an investment or two.

What could be unfortunate is if everyone also comes to the realization that the increasing price of oil is putting a damper on the party that wants to explode.

Otherwise, there really isn’t much to think about for the rest of 2016.

Of course, the totally unexpected can always happen.

A Trump victory, some unpredictable world events, natural calamities and on and on.

Hopefully, the world will be sedate and kind to everyone, including investors.

For the rest of this week we will be listening to whatever is said in public at Jackson Hole and to what is overheard.

Today, there was nothing to take anyone by surprise during the first day of that meeting and the market traded in a really narrow range.

The curiosity will all be over whether that interest rate increase could possibly come as early as next month.

Janet Yellen will speak on Friday and she may send markets to some new highs if she gives reason to not fear the interest rate increase and whatever other ones may await in 2017.

Lately, she hasn’t been much of a market mover, but should could be this time around, especially if she makes some suggestion that she isn’t interested in continuing in the position under whoever becomes our next President.

If she skips that part of the conversation and simply speaks up the hawkish stance most everyone is now pushing, the market will probably move higher.

If that’s the case, we are setting ourselves up for a classic “sell on the news,” but the news may still be months away.

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Daily Market Update – August 25, 2016 (7:30 AM)

The only things moving right now are energy and commodities, as stocks are taking a break.

For the most part earnings haven’t really mattered in the broader picture as most everyone is now just waiting for the reality of an interest rate hike.

You would think that when that action finally comes that there would be a realization that the economy and the stocks that represent that economy would be worth an investment or two.

What could be unfortunate is if everyone also comes to the realization that the increasing price of oil is putting a damper on the party that wants to explode.

Otherwise, there really isn’t much to think about for the rest of 2016.

Of course, the totally unexpected can always happen.

A Trump victory, some unpredictable world events, natural calamities and on and on.

Hopefully, the world will be sedate and kind to everyone, including investors.

For the rest of this week we will be listening to whatever is said in public at Jackson Hole and to what is overheard.

The curiosity will all be over whether that interest rate increase could possibly come as early as next month.

Janet Yellen will speak on Friday and she may send markets to some new highs if she gives reason to not fear the interest rate increase and whatever other ones may await in 2017.

Lately, she hasn’t been much of a market mover, but should could be this time around, especially if she makes some suggestion that she isn’t interested in continuing in the position under whoever becomes our next President.

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Daily Market Update – August 24, 2016 (Close)

As we approach the middle of the week, all eyes are now on the final 2 days of festivities coming from the beauty of Jackson Hole.

I’ve been there twice, coincidentally at this time of the year, but long before I had any interest in the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s party antics.

The likelihood is that Janet Yellen will say something that supports the notion that an interest rate hike is going to soon be obviously warranted.

The market will probably react positively to those kind of words, but then comes the questions as to what’s next.

What has to come next, in order for the market to move higher is that there is obvious evidence of the consumer again becoming involved in growing the economy.

At the same time there can’t be too much acceleration in the price of oil, while the dollar has to remain in its current range or get a little weaker.

Of course, it also wouldn’t hurt if the interest rate increase was small and that there wasn’t going to be much talk about another increase in the near future.

With all the good things possibly needing to happen to keep stocks moving higher, one thing that isn’t going to be need is competition from bonds.

I don’t think that there will be much to do for me this week as the single expiring position has already been rolled over, although some of the positions that I’ve been hoping to sell calls upon are looking more likely, so I would be very happy to pull that trigger.

That’s so even if it means putting them into suspended animation for a few months, as the low volatility doesn’t offer much in the way of premiums unless time is added into the equation in a meaningful way.

If in that process there’s also a dividend or two to be had and maybe some capital gains on the shares, as well, it is a little more palatable stretching things out.

Otherwise, not so much.

What surprised me today, as oil and the markets continued their recent re-discovery of one another, was the opportunity to rollover positions in the Gold Miners ETF following the big fall in gold.

Those positions have been great performers and consistent revenue creators, so I don’t mind seeing the big falls as they make this into a really long term holding that has generated lots of revenue and now will do so for at least one additional month.

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