Jul22016

Weekend Update – July 3, 2016

Weekend Update

We often have an odd way of accepting someone’s decision to change their mind.

A change of mind is frequently thought to be a sign of a poorly conceived conviction or a poorly conceived initial position.

Few politicians change their minds because they know that they will be assailed for weakness or for having caved in, as opposed to having given careful and objective thought to a complex topic.

Of course, then there’s also the issue of a politician changing their mind simply for political expediency or political advantage.

That kind of distasteful behavior, although perhaps pragmatic, just stokes our cynicism.

We sometimes get upset at a child’s frequent changes of mind and want to instill some consistency that ultimately stifles ongoing thought and assessment.

At the same time, as parents, we are often faced with alternating opinions as to whether we need to be consistent in application and formulation of the rules we set or whether there should be some ability to make the rules a living entity that is responsive to events and circumstances.

When I was a child, I attended a “Yeshiva,” which is a Jewish version of a parochial school. We were taught to abide by Biblical laws, include the law regarding Kosher foods.

One day, when I was about 10 years old, I found a package of ham in our refrigerator and confronted my mother about the blatant violation of a sacred rule.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha

Jul12016

Week In Review – June 27 – July 1, 2016

Week in Review

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

June 27 – July 1, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
2  /  2 0 2 2   /   0 0   /   0 0 5

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

June 27 – July 1, 2016


Well, this was an interesting week.

Just when it looked like….

….It turned out not to be that at all.

In fact, it was the best week in 2 years, even with Monday’s big decline.

When it was all said and done, last week’s decline, which had taken the market back into negative territory for the year with its continued loss to open this week, was once again showing a gain on the year.

There were 2 new positions opened this week and along with most everything else, they went higher, just not high enough as the gains were constrained by the sale of call options.

Those positions were 2.2% higher, finishing 1.0% lower than both the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500. The basic index ended the week being 3.2% higher, as those 3 post-Brexit days mid-week changed everything.

With 2 new assignments on the week closed positions in 2016 were 6.8% h
igher, while the comparable performance for the S&P 500 during the same holding periods has been 1.6% higher. That represents a 337.7% difference in return on closed positions. That would be much more impressive if there were many more closed positions in 2016, but that just hasn’t been the case, although the pace has been slowly increasing

This was a good week.

It’s always nice to see asset values rise, but i also like seeing activity.

This week had 2 new positions opened, 2 positions rolled over, 2 positions assigned and 5 ex-dividend positions.

It has been a long time since having that much activity and I enjoyed it immensely.

I also enjoyed seeing the week come to a close on a less effusive note, as it’s always more comforting to see support levels being established, rather than meteoric moves higher.

Those are hard to sustain, especially if there continues to be overhead resistance and there is definitely overhead resistance ahead.

With a couple of assignments this week, I would welcome some more opportunity to add new positions, but with volatility again dropping, it may be difficult to find anything suitable, especially with only 4 days of premium ahead of us next week.

Then again, I didn’t think that there would be much chance of spending money this week and things turned out very differently.

With only a single ex-dividend position next week and no positions set to expire, I might succumb to the desire to generate some additional revenue.

If so, that would mean having to recycle some of the money from this week’s assignments.

As has been the case lately, I wouldn’t mind recycling the money right back into positions that had just gotten assigned if there is any early price weakness as the week gets underway.

That has been a pretty good formula lately, especially in those positions that still had some reasonable volatility associated with them.

Otherwise, it may end up being a quiet week, as has been the case for much of 2016.

I hope that whatever next week brings, it does bring a happy and safe Fourth of July to all.


This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  EBAY, MRO

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  GDX, NEM

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO: STX

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  MRO

Calls Expired:  HFC

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:    CY (6/28 $0.11), DOW (6/28 $0.46), EMC (6/29 $0.11), WFM (6/29 $0.14), GPS (7/1 $0.23)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: CSCO (7/5 $0.26)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Jul12016

Daily Market Update – July 1, 2016

Daily Market Update

Close 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 1, 2016 (7:30 AM)


The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Monday at Noon.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  EBAY*, MRO*

Rollovers:   none

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:   CY (6/28 $0.11), DOW (6/28 $0.46), EMC (6/29 $0.11), WFM (6/29 $0.14), GPS (7/1 $0.23)

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  CSCO (7/5 $0.26)


* In the event that a rollover is possible and able to provide an additionally 1% weekly ROI, I would prefer to rollover those positions, rather than accept assignment.

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT.

Jun302016

Daily Market Update – June 30, 2016 (Close)

Daily Market Update

Close 

 

 

Daily Market Update – June 30, 2016 (Close)


After the past 3 days of gains, the pain felt from last Friday and this past Monday is almost erased.

At this point, as the morning’s futures were seeking to reduce the loss even more, the market was only 2% lower from where it left off last Thursday.

After hearing about how the 2 days of losses were the worst of the year, we are now hearing that the past 2 days were the best gains of the year.

Make that 3 days.

Well, at least since February, when Jamie Dimon may have single handedly turned the market around by spending $26 million of his own funds to pick up shares of his own company, that he felt had suddenly become well under-valued.

A couple of days ago that company was close to being back at its February 11th levels, but then broad based buying set in.

While yesterday’s close also had more buying characterize it, those closing gains weren’t as strong as the previous days, but the futures market is still looking to add more.

Today’s close, though, was still moving higher and higher.

With this kind of buying, or selling, for that matter, you never really know what will come first.

Will traders try to capitalize and head in the other direction in the fear that others will beat them to it and leave them holding the bag, or do they pile on for fear of getting left out from the celebrations ahead?

They certainly didn’t head in the other direction today and the buying strength at the close didn’t indicate any reversal for tomorrow, either.

As the market does head higher the technicians also begin exerting their influence and the emotions of fear and greed may take a back seat as traders have to deal with those annoying resistance levels.

Breaking one of those levels isn’t a guarantee of continued climbs higher, particularly as there is often testing of the level, but if the 2137 level is broke, tested and broken again, there may be lots of uncharted territory for further upside.

Those are lots of ifs, but before that point, is the 2112 level of just a week ago.

So it may be interesting to watch the market work its way higher as it ended today less than 1% below that 2012 level.

At this point I wouldn’t mind some consolidation and building a base or a support level and then trying to climb anew from there.

In the meantime, while overall volatility is dropping rapidly, some sectors still remain very attractive, even as their risk seems to be becoming less and less.

That may be where the opportunity awaits and that is where the opportunity has already been.

Jun302016

Daily Market Update – June 30, 2016

Daily Market Update

Close 

 

 

Daily Market Update – June 30, 2016 (Close)


After the past 3 days of gains, the pain felt from last Friday and this past Monday is almost erased.

At this point, as the morning’s futures are seeking to reduce the loss even more, the market is only 2% lower from where it left off last Thursday.

After hearing about how the 2 days of losses were the worst of the year, we are now hearing that the past 2 days were the best gains of the year.

Well, at least since February, when Jamie Dimon may have single handedly turned the market around by spending $26 million of his own funds to pick up shares of his own company, that he felt had suddenly become well under-valued.

A couple of days ago that company was close to being back at its February 11th levels, but then broad based buying set in.

While yesterday’s close also had more buying characterize it, those closing gains weren’t as strong as the previous days, but the futures market is still looking to add more.

With this kind of buying, or selling, for that matter, you never really know what will come first.

Will traders try to capitalize and head in the other direction in the fear that others will beat them to it and leave them holding the bag, or do they pile on for fear of getting left out from the celebrations ahead?

As the market does head higher the technicians also begin exerting their influence and the emotions of fear and greed may take a back seat as traders have to deal with those annoying resistance levels.

Breaking one of those levels isn’t a guarantee of continued climbs higher, particularly as there is often testing of the level, but if the 2137 level is broke, tested and broken again, there may be lots of uncharted territory for further upside.

Those are lots of ifs, but before that point, is the 2112 level of just a week ago.

So it may be interesting to watch the market work its way higher.

At this point I wouldn’t mind some consolidation and building a base or a support level and then trying to climb anew from there.

In the meantime, while overall volatility is dropping rapidly, some sectors still remain very attractive, even as their risk seems to be becoming less and less.

That may be where the opportunity awaits and that is where the opportunity has already been.