Daily Market Update – August 22, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update – August 22, 2016 (Close)


There isn’t too much on tap for this week, what with summer winding down.

Although there will be a GDP release to end the week, the real news may come along with that summer ending tradition in Jackson Hole, Wyoming as the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank holds its annual monetary policy symposium.

I wonder why they don’t hold it in Kansas City? At least the Missouri version.

That means that people will be listening to every word and every nuance to get some idea of when the FOMC may finally decide to raise rates.

If you listened to Stanley Fischer, the Vice-Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he indicated that the FOMC had pretty much all of the data it needed to do so.

In that case many will be looking for words of validation over the 2 days of the meeting which Janet Yellen skipped last year.

That meeting was a yawner, but it may be different this year, as Janet Yellen is scheduled to give a big speech and there may even be some wonder as to whether she is open to another term.

This week looks as if it will be getting off to a quiet start, continuing the pattern of the past few weeks.

Markets are still within easy reach of surpassing the all time high, which itself was more than 2% above the previously recognized high.

That’s something that has only happened 4 times in history, so this really is a pretty remarkable time.

This week may not be so remarkable, though.

I have some more cash available after the expiration of puts and that looked for a very short while as if it might be joined by cash from the assignment of a single lot of calls set to expire this week.

That is until I decided to keep the position alive by rolling it over in the face of a large decline in the shares today.

The trade off was that I was willing to take another 1.8% in income for an additional 2 weeks if the shares fell less than an additional 4% in that time period.

If it falls more, maybe I can keep the position alive even longer.

While I wouldn’t mind having some additional opportunities to generate income, I like the idea of collecting more cash in the event that we realize that there hasn’t been too much of a reason to have gotten to these new highs.

Beyond that, there’s also that pesky “sell on the news” phenomenon.

Still, while collecting more cash, I wouldn’t mind if this week does bring some more strength, if only to have the opportunity to finally sell some calls on positions that have been tantalizingly close the past few weeks and that have been begging for the opportunity to generate some income.

With no ex-dividend positions this week and now no more rollovers, the only prospects for generating cash this week are to either spend down some of the cash reserve or sell calls on uncovered positions.

I’d prefer the latter, but may be willing to take the former, especially if there is some profit taking early in the week.

Otherwise, I do like some of the earnings related positions highlighted this week, but as the caveat in the weekly article pointed out, I’m only likely to bite in the event of some sig
nificant drops after earnings and may be then more inclined to do traditional covered call trades, rather than selling puts, in the event that there is going to be an ex-dividend date near at hand.

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Daily Market Update – August 22, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update – August 22, 2016 (8:30 AM)


There isn’t too much on tap for this week, what with summer winding down.

Although there will be a GDP release to end the week, the real news may come along with that summer ending tradition in Jackson Hole, Wyoming as the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank holds its annual monetary policy symposium.

That means that people will be listening to every word and every nuance to get some idea of when the FOMC may finally decide to raise rates.

If you listened to Stanley Fischer, the Vice-Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he indicated that the FOMC had pretty much all of the data it needed to do so.

In that case many will be looking for words of validation over the 2 days of the meeting which Janet Yellen skipped last year.

That meeting was a yawner, but it may be different this year, as Janet Yellen is scheduled to give a big speech and there may even be some wonder as to whether she is open to another term.

This week looks as if it will be getting off to a quiet start, continuing the pattern o0f the past few weeks.

Markets are still within easy reach of surpassing the all time high, which itself was more than 2% above the previously recognized high.

That’s something that has only happened 4 times in history, so this really is a pretty remarkable time.

This week may not be so remarkable, though.

I have some more cash available after the expiration of puts and that looks as if it may be joined by cash from the assignment of a single lot of calls.

While I wouldn’t mind having some additional opportunities to generate income, I like the idea of collecting more cash in the event that we realize that there hasn’t been too much of a reason to have gotten to these new highs.

Beyond that, there’s also that pesky “sell on the news” phenomenon.

Still, while collecting more cash, I wouldn’t mind if this week does bring some more strength, if only to have the opportunity to finally sell some calls on positions that have been tantalizingly close the past few weeks and that have been begging for the opportunity to generate some income.

With no ex-dividend positions this week and no rollovers, the only prospects for generating cash this week are to either spend down some of the cash reserve or sell calls on uncovered positions.

I’d prefer the latter, but may be willing to take the former, especially if there is some profit taking early in the week.

Otherwise, I do like some of the earnings related positions highlighted this week, but as the caveat in the weekly article pointed out, I’m only likely to bite in the event of some significant drops after earnings and may be then more inclined to do traditional covered call trades, rather than selling puts, in the event that there is going to be an ex-dividend date near at hand.

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Dashboard – August 22 – 26, 2016

 

 

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:   Earnings are now coming to a trickle and there’s little to move markets other than economic data and FOMC members. The week looks like it will get started on a mildly lower bias, continuing the lack of conviction of the past few weeks.

TUESDAY:   Markets may move higher today, but for all intents and purposes, volatility is still on its summer vacation

WEDNESDAY: It looks like another flat morning as yesterday’s brief gains evaporated.

THURSDAY:  Oil has taken over markets the past couple of days, but for the next two, it may be a focus on whatever is said and overheard in Jackson Hole

FRIDAY:.  Today’s GDP will almost certainly be over shadowed by Janet Yellen speaking from Jackson Hole, as the market is treading water in the futures trading and trending lower for the week.


 

 



 

                                                                                                                                           

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Weekly Summary

  

Weekend Update – August 21, 2016

We are pretty much done with the most systemically important earnings reports for this most current earnings season.

To say that it has been a confusing mix of results and projections would be an understatement.

By the end of the week, we had our fourth consecutive week of almost no net change. Yet the market remained within easy striking distance of its all time closing highs.

Why it’s at those all time closing highs is another question, but for the past 2 months the climb higher, while confounding, hasn’t disappointed too many people even as it’s given no reason to really be hopeful for more to come.

However, technicians might say that the lack of large moves at these levels is a healthy thing as markets may be creating a sustainable support level. 

That is an expression of hope.

Others may say that the clear lack of clarity gives no signal for committed movement in any direction.

That is an expression of avoidance, so as to preclude disappointment with whatever happens next. If you have no great hopes, you can’t really have great disappointment.

I buy into both of those outlooks, but have had an extraordinarily difficult time in believing that there is anything at immediate hand to use whatever support level is being created as a springboard to even more new highs.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha

 

 

Week In Review – August 15 – 19, 2016

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

August 15 – 19, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
0  /  0 0 0 0   /   1 1  /   0 0 2

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

August 15 – 19, 2016

This was yet another in a series of flat weeks, but it was another in which my complaints may fall on deaf ears.

This was another week of no new purchases and so again there wasn’t too much to think or talk about.

The S&P 500 was down 0.3% for the week and other than a little bit of action following the release of FOMC minutes, there was nothing of any interest for the rest of the week.

Still it was a good week.

There were 2 ex-dividend positions and the expiration of those puts that had been serially rolled over, after having gone out on a little bit of a limb by having rolled them over the previous week even though they were going to expire..

On top of that, even as the market was flat, existing positions again beat the S&P 500, this time by an additional 0.4%. even though that meant that the only finished 0.1% higher for the week.

With the expiration of those puts that added one additional position to the paltry list of closed lots for 2016. Those positions closed in 2016 are still 6.8% higher, while the comparable performance for the S&P 500 during the same holding periods has been 1.8% higher. That represents a 279% difference in return on closed positions. Once again,  I’d be much more impressed if there were far more of those closed positions to point toward. With such few closed positions for the year, the differential could just as easily have been in the other direction and of a similar magnitude, yet also signifying little.

With this week’s small advance. it does at least add to the nice performance thus far in 2016.

That’s better than the alternative, although this past week wasn’t one for generating very much in the way of income.

It wasn’t really a week for generating much of anything, including anything of interest.

While there may be some more signs that the FOMC is going to be able to find reason to increase interest rates, no one is really getting excited or getting frightened
.

For the most part earnings season is now over and for the most part is was fairly disappointing.

What may have been most disappointing is that no one seemed to offer anything positive for the rest of 2016.

On the one hand that could set us up for some positive surprises three months from now, but for now it didn’t really offer any kind of catalyst to move higher.

Still, we’re just a hair from those all time closing highs, so something must be going right.

With the expiration of those puts I do have some additional cash that I wouldn’t mind putting to use, although it’s not likely to get any easier next week, just as the past couple of weeks have been difficult to really identify anything with a reward worth the risk.

With no ex-dividend positions next week and the likelihood of the assignment of a short call position, it would be really nice to find something to invest in, but that likely share assignment makes me think that together with the expiration of puts this week, it might e a good time to collect some cash.



This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  none

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:   none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: none

Put contracts expired: MRO

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  none

Calls Expired:  FAST

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions   MRO (8/15 $0.05), HFC (8/19 $0.33)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: none

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.