TheAcsMan

Oct102016

Daily Market Update – October 10, 2016 (Close)

Last week provided some confusing data on the Employment Situation front, but markets were confused all week long.

This week may end up being less confusing, but we may have to wait until Friday to really get any of that clarity.

Friday is the day that the major money center banks release earnings and it will also be the day that the Retail Sales Report is released.

The latter is backward looking, but the former may offer some glimpse into what 2017 may have to offer with regard to economic growth.

After those are all done, then Janet Yellen addresses the Boston Federal Reserve’s conference with a real appropriate topic: "The Elusive Recovery."

We may get to find out on Friday morning how those big banks feel about their own upcoming business prospects.

A real economic recovery can’t have much chance if the banks don’t lead the way, so Friday morning may be an important one.

If the banks see good things ahead, markets may very well take note, but it’s unclear as to how they may take note.

Based on some of the uneasiness whenever it appeared that an interest rate increase was going to happen sooner rather than later, you could easily envision a market sell-off with any perceived economic strength.

If that’s the case, at some point, you would imagine that cooler heads would prevail, much as they did in February and then help to move the markets beyond their all time highs.

I do have some cash to spend this week, even as I don’t have too much interest in doing so. But when I also look at the fact that there are no ex-dividend positions this week and no positions set to expire, I would then like to create my own opportunities.

With the market pointing toward a moderately positive open this morning, once again my preference for the generation of the weekly income I crave would have been through the sale of calls on uncovered positions.

But that didn’t happen today, even as the market almost ended with a triple digit move, after having taken last week off from such moves.

Some sustained moves higher would be very welcome and I would love to recreate last week’s experience.

I should qualify that ad say that I would like to recreate that experience, except without the experience of having opened that speculative new position at precisely the wrong time.

Oct102016

Daily Market Update – October 10, 2016

TheAcsManDaily Market Update

Daily Market Update – October 10, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Last week provided some confusing data on the Employment Situation front, but markets were confused all week long.

This week may end up being less confusing, but we may have to wait until Friday to really get any of that clarity.

Friday is the day that the major money center banks release earnings and it will also be the day that the Retail Sales Report is released.

The latter is backward looking, but the former may offer some glimpse into what 2017 may have to offer with regard to economic growth.

After those are all done, then Janet Yellen addresses the Boston Federal Reserve’s conference with a real appropriate topic: “The Elusive Recovery.”

We may get to find out on Friday morning how those big banks feel about their own upcoming business prospects.

A real economic recovery can’t have much chance if the banks don’t lead the way, so Friday morning may be an important one.

If the banks see good things ahead, markets may very well take note, but it’s unclear as to how they may take note.

If that’s the case, at some point, you would imagine that cooler heads would prevail, much as they did in February and then help to move the markets beyond their all time highs.

With the market pointing toward a moderately positive open this morning, once again my preference for the generation of the weekly income I crave would be through the sale of calls on uncovered positions.

Some sustained moves higher would be very welcome and I would love to recreate last week’s experience.

I should qualify that ad say that I would like to recreate that experience, except without the experience of having opened that speculative new position at precisely the wrong time.

Oct102016

Dashboard – October 10 – 14, 2016

TheAcsManDashboard

MONDAY: Earnings season begins this week, but not for real until Friday, when Retail Sales are also reported. Guidance may be more important than ever as 2016 comes to an end and we still wonder where the interest rate increases we have all been expecting this year are hiding

TUESDAY: Yesterday was a surprisingly strong day, even as some of the gains were lost. Today appears to be getting off to a flat start as we await the end of the week’s earnings, Retail Sales and Janet Yellen

WEDNESDAY: With markets facing an unexpected large loss yesterday, once again following oil, this morning appears to be flat as we gear up for earnings and more.

THURSDAY: It looks as if yesterday’s breather, despite some fairly strong opinion contained in last month’s FOMC meeting minutes about raising interest rates, won’t be holding up as this morning begins. I would have thought that the news in those minutes would have sent markets into a dive, but maybe there’s a delayed reaction this morning, instead.

FRIDAY:. Futures are getting off to a good start as JP Morgan shows that they were healthier than thought with good top line revenue

“SNEAK PEEK AT NEXT WEEK” APPEARS ON FRIDAYS

Oct82016

Weekend Update – October 9, 2016

TheAcsManWeekend Update

About a year ago at this time, we were all waiting for what would turn out to be the first interest rate increase by the FOMC in nearly 9 years.

Once that increase finally arrived at the end of 2015, we were all preparing for what we were led to believe would be a series of small such increases throughout the course of 2016.

The problem, however, that stood in the way of those increases becoming reality was the FOMC’s insistence that their decisions would be data dependent. As we all know, the data to justify an increase in interest rates just hasn’t been there ever since that first increase.

The cynics, with the advantage of hindsight, might suggest that the data wasn’t even there a year ago, but that didn’t stop the FOMC from their action, which in short order took the market to its 2016 lows.

Back when those lows were hit in February, many credit Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase (JPM) for abruptly ending the correction by making a $26 million purchase of his own company’s shares. That wasn’t a terribly large amount of money, but it probably wasn’t a coincidence that the market turned on a dime.

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha

Oct72016

Week in Review – October 3 – 7, 2016

TheAcsManWeek in Review

Option to Profit

Week in Review

October 3 – 7, 2016

NEW POSITIONS/STO	NEW STO	ROLLOVERS	CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED	CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED	CLOSED	EX-DIVIDEND
0 / 1	4	0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	2

Weekly Up to Date Performance

October 3 – 7, 2016

I have no idea what this week was all about, but something is brewing.

I also have no idea whether to be pleased or displeased about this week.

I was definitely displeased with the really poor timing in adding shares of a precious metal ETF.

I knew that there was a likelihood of continuing sharp volatility in that position, but I didn’t think that it would be sustained in a single direction.

That one position was 11.6% lower on the week, while the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500 were 0.7% lower.

Not even close.

What was better was how existing positions performed.

Existing positions were 0.1% lower on the week, but outperformed the S&P 500 by 0.6%.

That was mixed news, at best.

What was good was the opportunity to sell calls on multiple lots of two uncovered positions and doing so to try and capitalize on their healthy dividends and option premiums. Even though those positions were rolled out in time, all the way to January 2017, the opportunities that they presented still looked far better than the questionable alternatives that the market is offering.

There were no new assignments of shares to add to the closed positions in 2016 and, therefore, no new cash to add to the reserves, that i would desperately like to see grow.

What there was, however, was an assignment of the short puts position, which ended up deep in the hole for the week, but if that volatility continues may not be too big of a hole to dig out from under.

It’s really hard to know what comes next after Friday’s ambiguous Employment Situation report.

Stocks were basically all over the place for the week and were all over the place on Fri
day, as well.

Earnings season actually starts next week and that could take our mind off of the re-association between oil and stocks, interest rates, plunging precious metal prices and currency woes in Great Britain.

There is no greater clarity following this past week and unless corporate earnings or the guidance provided can do anything to clear things up, we may just be in store for more of this kind of annoying uncertainty and lack of conviction.

I still have some cash in reserve, but have no positions expiring next week and have no ex-dividend positions, so may very well be on the lookout for some opportunity to generate some income, but am very reluctant to do so with anything other than a quick hit.

However, that’s what I thought I was getting into this past week and those precious metals turned out to be a big, big disappointment.

At this point, I don’t particularly want any more disappointment, but I do want the income.

While we await earnings, we may get some cues from the many Federal Reserve speakers, especially since there is also a release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday.

Before Janet Yellen wraps up the week, there is also a retail Sales Report and that could shed some light on what the consumer is up to, as the evidence may be mounting that the consumer is getting back into action.

Interest rates, anyone?

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):

New Positions Opened: AGQ puts

Puts Closed in order to take profits: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle: none

New STO: DOW, DOW (January 2017), LVS, LVS (January 2017)

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold: none

Calls Assigned: none

Calls Expired: none

Puts Assigned: AGQ

Stock positions Closed to take profits: none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: GPS (10/3 $0.23), BMY (10/5 $0.38)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: none

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts: AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO, CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)

* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.