Dec172016

Weekend Update – December 18, 2016

Weekend Update

 

A long time ago there was a reasonably popular song by a group that itself was reasonably popular  at a time when Disco was dying, Punk Rock had out-grown its shock factor and Heavy Metal and long hair bands were taking root.
 
In that vacuum anything could have become reasonably popular and so it was that everyone was humming the tune of the song that cried out for the need for a new drug.
 
I always wondered why the lyrics didn’t include the requirement for a drug that won’t quit, as that’s the ultimate problem for anyone seeking to be taken to a better place through the modern miracle of chemistry.
 
At some point we develop a kind of tolerance to stimuli, to feelings and even to drugs. That’s why we always keep searching for something new. What was once good, or at least good enough, just quits on us.
 
Even when we may not fall prey to the human desire for more, bigger and better, we at least want to get the same kick at a bare minimum and we can’t possibly tolerate a drug or an emotion that quits on us.
 
This past week we came to a point when the FOMC sort of quit. It really didn’t take us any place new, even as it did finally take some action.
 
  
Continue reading on Seeking Alpha
 
 
 
 
 

Dec162016

Important Announcement

Daily Market Update

After nearly 5 years and almost 1000 closed positions, it’s time to close “Option to Profit.”

At least my part of OTP.

Effective January 2, 2017, Option to Profit will have new owners and I will no longer be involved with it, in whatever new form it may take.

Subscriber lists were not included in the sale, just the rights to the name, web sites and book royalties.

While not part of the deal, I will no longer be posting articles on Seeking Alpha with any regularity, although I am very appreciative to the editors for giving me completely free rein.

I do plan to resurrect an ad supported, non-subscription “www.TheAcsMan.com” and post trades on there, but I just won’t be writing as much.

I would like to also thank all subscribers, especially those who have remained from the inception of what I thought would be a 3 – 4 month long subscription for most people, who I expected would then apply the rules on their own stocks or simply decide this wasn’t for them.

That so many decided to stay through the entire run is still a shock to me, but I’m very grateful for the shared good humor, wisdom and insights through the ups and downs.

While that was a pleasant and really unexpected surprise, what was especially nice was the fact that I never had a single subscriber who was ever less than genuinely friendly. Whatever people may say about the anonymity of the internet, something should be said for those who are consistently polite and constructive, even when their names are unknown.

Believe it or not, I will miss that much more than the money.

Thank you again to everyone. Whether Trading Alerts, Web Access Only or Seeking Alpha subscribers, you were all wonderful.

You made retirement engaging in a way that I never thought it could be.

Best of luck in 2017 and beyond in every meaningful aspect of life.

Dec162016

Week In Review – December 12 – 16, 2016

Week in Review

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review


December 12 – 16, 2016

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
0  /   1  0 2 3   /   0 2   /   0 0 2

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

December 12 – 16, 2016

New Record, new record and more new records.

OK, that wasn’t really the story this week, but after so many new records, it’s quite an achievement just to hold your ground, especially after an FOMC interest rate hike.

There was a single new position opened this week and it was 1.5% higher, while the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500 were both unchanged for the week.

Unfortunately, due to the weakness in commodities on the week, existing positions under-performed the market on the eek. That was only fair because it was those same positions that have helped the existing positions out-perform the market for most of the year.

There were 2 more closed positions, but that still has the year at only 33, a very paltry number for all of the effort..

Ordinarily I would have said tat this was a great week.

There was one new position, were 2 rollovers, 3 assignments, 2 ex-dividend positions.

Those would have ordinarily allowed me to overlook the 2 expired positions.

Unfortunately, existing positions really did poorly this week as commodities let me down, just as they have carried me through most of the year.

What this week did was to add even more to my cash reserve, which I actually do like, even as we continue to set new closing highs.

As much as I think that we are still going higher, I very much like the idea of having some cash to pick up bargains that I believe are going to come, even as there is every reason to think that markets are going higher.

With some more cash in reserve I don’t mind spending some of it in the coming week, even as we may be at near term highs.

That’s the nice thing about having cash. You can take some risks and still be able to bail yourself out.

With the FOMC now having weighed in, in just a few weeks we are all set to start earnings season all over ag
ain.

This time around, it’s reasonable to think that those earnings are going to be better than expected, but those expectations are probably climbing, too.

Still, I think that the coming quarter is going to give markets a reason to move higher, as may the reality of the President-Elect becoming the President.

With a couple of expiring positions next week and cash on hand, along with one dividend position, there’s really not a compelling reason to add any new positions, but the volatility in commodities, as there is almost no volatility elsewhere, continues to be really hard to pass up.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  CLF puts

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:   MRO

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle:  none

New STO: none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: CLF

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  HFC, HPQ, IP

Calls Expired:  AGQ, ANF

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions:    M (12/13 $0.38), BBBY (12/14 $0.125)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: LVS (12/10 $0.72)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Dec162016

Daily Market Update – December 16, 2016

Daily Market Update

 

 

Daily Market Update –  December 16, 2016 (7:30 AM)


The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: HFC, IP

Rollovers: None

Expirations:   AGQ, ANF

The following were ex-dividend this week:    M (12/13 $0.38), BBBY (12/14 $0.125)  

The following are ex-dividend next week:  LVS (12/19 $0.72)


Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

.

Dec152016

Daily Market Update – December 15, 2016 (Close)

Daily Market Update

 

 

Daily Market Update –  December 15, 2016 (Close)


It was the morning after the annual FOMC increase in interest rates and all was calm.

Yesterday the FOMC sowed quite a bit of confusion and it wasn’t helped too much by Janet Yellen during her press conference.

Still, the decline was orderly and fairly inconsequential, especially when you consider the trajectory since the election.

What you can be certain of is that the FOMC and its members didn’t gain any new fans who are going to become our next President.

This morning, though, the futures were fairly flat and there wasn’t too much excitement.

Commodities continued to be weak, as bond yields have moved higher.

After all, why take risk when you can start getting a reasonably good rate of return on paper products?

We’ll see how long that lasts.

Today, what lasted was the return to buying stocks, even though the close was well off of the day’s highs.

I was happy to be able to roll over a couple of positions yesterday and am now hoping to see some assignments tomorrow as we end the December 2016 option cycle.

I still have cash to spend and am stilling willing to do so this week, even tomorrow, but would be stunned if I did, although some of those commodity declines are looking appealing.

What I did do, and that continues a recent trend, has been to finally start putting some of those still well below cost commodity positions to work through the sale of calls.

As I mentioned last week, sometimes a little too much maintenance and watching necessary to recommend to subscribers, but I’ve had a hard time resisting these bounces in commodities.

As good as 2016 has been, I could easily spend 2017 making these kind of very lucrative trades all day long.

.