Monthly Archives: December 2016

Daily Market Update –  December 21, 2016 (Close)

For as quiet of a day as yesterday was, there were certainly plenty of trading opportunities.

Enough so, that I’m not left with any more rollovers for the week, at least not for positions expiring this week.

I even, uncharacteristically rolled over some positions not expiring for another 4 weeks, although both were dividend related rollovers.

This morning seemed as if it was going to get off to a quiet start, but for the most part, that has been the story since the election.

There really haven’t been any days that have telegraphed a large move up or down in the futures.

The market has just kept its steam and moved higher, a little at a time.

That definitely reminds me of 2007.

Back then, it seemed as if each and every day, heading into October of that year, was just one new high after another.

I don’t think that the next chapter is going to be like the one that followed those October 2007 highs, but I do like my cash position now much better than I did back then.

Or even a month ago.

So, for the rest of the week, I will probably be a bystander, although I still wouldn’t mind parting with some money.

Today wasn’t the day to do so, though and it did end up being a really quiet kind of a day.

Maybe even boring.

I almost parted with some money yesterday, with a name that wasn’t on the list this week and gave it another look or two today and maybe again tomorrow.

Otherwise, it could be a snoozer, even as we do have a GDP coming our way tomorrow,

Daily Market Update –  December 21, 2016 (7:30 AM)

For as quiet of a day as yesterday was, there were certainly plenty of trading opportunities.

Enough so, that I’m not left with any more rollovers for the week, at least not for positions expiring this week.

I even, uncharacteristically rolled over some positions not expiring for another 4 weeks, although both were dividend related rollovers.

This morning seems as if it is going to get off to a quiet start, but for the most part, that has been the story since the election.

There really haven’t been any days that have telegraphed a large move up or down in the futures.

The market has just kept its steam and moved higher, a little at a time.

That definitely reminds me of 2007.

Back then, it seemed as if each and every day, heading into October of that year, was just one new high after another.

I don’t think that the next chapter is going to be like the one that followed those October 2007 highs, but I do like my cash position now much better than I did back then.

Or even a month ago.

So, for the rest of the week, I will probably be a bystander, although I still wouldn’t mind parting with some money.

I almost did so yesterday, with a name that wasn’t on the list this week and will give it another look or two today.

Otherwise, it could be a snoozer, even as we do have a GDP coming our way tomorrow,

Daily Market Update –  December 20, 2016 (Close)

Yesterday was a pretty quiet day and it didn’t seem like today, or maybe even the rest of the year would be any different.

At the moment, there are far too many people calling for the market to continue moving higher, but it did anyway, today.

Even though I’ve been one of those people, I’ve been happy to be adding to my cash position, especially since there are so many people thinking that the next stop can only be higher.

One thing that history has taught us is that populism grows old very quickly.

It’s much easier to carp than to govern, so we’ll see just how all of this comes together, although there has to be reason to be hopeful in the near term.

A big part of that, though, has to be related to where we are finally on the economic cycle.

One of the slowest recoveries in history is finally seeming to get some traction and it looks as if we are also finally going to get some fuel added to the mix.

That may make things a little combustible, but it has been a long, long time since all of those cylinders have been firing.

I still may want to dip into my cash pile, but at this point, I would be much happier if I could make whatever I currently hold go to work.

That and getting a couple of rollovers for the week.

For my mouth to someone’s ear, because that’s exactly how today worked out, potentially leaving me nothing to do for the rest of the week.

I did try to make some of those rollover trades early yesterday and did really jump the gun on one that expires at the end of the month, but I was glad to see those trades get made today.

I would be especially glad to have an opportunity to close out the rolled over short put position in the event that Cliffs Natural Resources has another strong day tomorrow.

At this point, I want to accumulate income, income, income. Even if it means tying something down longer.

If that means holding onto something to get an additional 2% per month, I would be more than happy to be doing that ad infinitum.

If only….

That was the case with today’s rollover of Bristol Myers Squibb, which goes ex-dividend shortly after New Year’s and the case with Dow Chemical a few days ago, as it goes ex-dividend on Friday.

With those, I no longer mind if they get called early, as I will have already gotten the dividend in the form of more premium.

I don’t otherwise expect to be doing too much this week, but then again, I didn’t expect the market to be doing too much today and maybe not again in 2016.

Those expectations, though, do have a way of coming back at you.

Today, at least, that came back in a good way.

Daily Market Update –  December 20, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was a pretty quiet day and it doesn’t seem like today, or maybe even the rest of the year will be any different.

At the moment, there are far too many people calling for the market to continue moving higher.

Even though I’ve been one of those people, I’ve been happy to be adding to my cash position, especially since there are so many people thinking that the next stop can only be higher.

One thing that history has taught us is that populism grows old very quickly.

It’s much easier to carp than to govern, so we’ll see just how all of this comes together, although there has to be reason to be hopeful in the near term.

A big part of that, though, has to be related to where we are finally on the economic cycle.

One of the slowest recoveries in history is finally seeming to get some traction and it looks as if we are also finally going to get some fuel added to the mix.

That may make things a little combustible, but it has been a long, long time since all of those cylinders have been firing.

I still may want to dip into my cash pile, but at this point, I would be much happier if I could make whatever I currently hold go to work.

That and getting a couple of rollovers for the week.

I did try to make some of those rollover trades early yesterday and did really jump the gun on one that expires at the end of the month.

At this point, I want to accumulate income, income, income. Even if it means tying something down longer.

If that means holding onto something to get an additional 2% per month, I would be more than happy to be doing that ad infinitum.

If only….

I don’t otherwise expect to be doing too much this week and I don’t expect the market to be doing too much today and maybe not again in 2016.

Those expectations, though, do have a way of coming back at you.

Daily Market Update –  December 19, 2016 (Close)

There isn’t too much going on this week in economic news, but for the first time in a year, it doesn’t really matter.

With the FOMC now having announced an interest rate increase, we all know that somewhere along the line there will be another one and we all know pretty much what those indicators are going to be.

One of those indicators, the GDP, does come this week.

What we will all be looking for is whether or not we get some surprises, like we did last year, when the expectations for growth following the FOMC’s rate hike, just didn’t materialize.

So we kept going back and forth between being elated that the economy wasn’t growing as expected to being disappointed.

I think that this time around there can only be disappointment.

But, it does appear as if the die has been cast.

What we don’t know is whether the words of the President-Elect, with regard to economic expansion through government fueled infra-structure programs is going to be a reality.

If so, then how much fuel will there be and how quickly?

That’s a series of questions for someone else.

This week I have lots of cash, two nice ex-dividend position and 2 expiring positions.

That means that I might not mind putting some money on the line, but do already have some income coming in for the week.

As has been the case for the past few months, I’ll be looking at commodities and perhaps ways to milk some change out of some long dormant positions, as well as generating some income from some new positions.

With markets at such highs, it’s hard to identify any single position or two that could warrant taking risk, but those uber-risky commodities seem to offer me the solace tat run of the mill stocks aren’t offering right now.

Hopefully, that won’t be the case through 2017 as we either approach an inflection point or a launching point in the next month or two.

The one trade that seemed worthwhile was trying to ensure that the Dow Chemical positions going ex-dividend on Friday and currently well in the money had a little more life in them.

Even though the options don’t expire until the end of the January 2017 option cycle, at the current share price there was a pretty good chance that they would get assigned early to capture that $0.46 (3.1%) dividend. By rolling over another month, even if assigned early, the $0.52 additional premium would more than make up for the lost dividend and get the cash from assignment back into my hot little hands in time to re-invest next Tuesday.

If not assigned early, then it’s like getting paid 2% for the month and still being able to withstand a 6% decline.

Not too bad, but I hope to do some more tomorrow, as today was a pretty listless day, otherwise