Daily Market Update – November 17, 2016 (7:30 AM)
Now that the excitement about the election seems to be over, we’ve had a fairly boring week, but at least there haven’t been any attempts to peel back the gains of last week.
Neither has there been any alarm about what is now very likely to happen next month.
With more retail reports coming out this morning that have had more upside surprises and more good cheer to forecast for 2017 and what remains of 2016, it seems pretty obvious that we will finally see an interest rate hike in 2016, a full year after the first in 9 years.
We had been expecting several increases, but small ones.
The only surprise that could come is if the FOMC decides to do more than just institute a small increase and in effect do nothing more than to keep up with market forces that have been driving the interest rate on the Treasury Department’s 10 year note higher and higher.
That might be taken well by investors.
But it seems unlikely that the FOMC would saddle the incoming President with that kind of unexpected move, even as they are supposed to be above politics.
I haven’t heard anyone yet speak of the possibility, but as more and more good news seems to be coming in, someone, somewhere, has to remember and fear the old days and can recall how inflation actually gets started.
Over the next 2 days, I just hope that there continues to be some share inflation so that I can add to my cash reserves and maybe generate a little bit of income for the week.
I’m really not certain whether I want to have lots of cash going into 2017 or not, but I do like the market taking a little breather to consolidate these gains.
Traditionally, that means a step higher, but the past 2 years it hasn’t really worked that way, even as we do reach new highs.
If it’s any consolation, 2017 won’t be any less confusing