Weekend Update – May 22, 2016

If you could really dodge a bullet, magicians from Harry Houdini to Penn and Teller would never have had to perfect the ability to catch them in their teeth.

Yet, we may have dodged a bullet this past week.

Forget about the fact that the stock market still seems to like the idea of higher oil prices. We’ve been dodging the impact of increasing oil prices through most of 2016. At some point, however, that will change. That bullet has been an incredibly slow moving one.

What we dodged was a second week of terrible retail earnings and continued over-reaction to the thought that a June 2016 interest rate hike was back on the table, as  Federal Reserve Governors are sounding increasingly hawkish.

Not that there wasn’t a reaction to the sense that such an increase was becoming more likely, but some decent earnings data coupled with increased inflation projections could have really fueled an exit for the doors.

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Week in Review – May 16 – 20, 2016

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review

 

May 16 – 20, 2016

 

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
0  /  0 0 3 2   /   0 3   /   0 0 1

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

May 16 – 20, 2016


Unbelievable. Two consecutive weeks with some trades.

The market again had no clue of what it wanted this week, but at actually had some decent earnings news and did overcome the stress of the possibility of an interest rate hike in June.

There were no new positions opened this week as the S&P 500 ended the 3 week losing streak with a 0.3% gain.

While the market did gain a little, existing positions had a pretty decent week.

Those positions gained 0.7% on the week.

With 2 assignments on the week those positions closed in 2016 were 8.2% higher, while the comparable performance for the S&P 500 during the same holding periods has been 1.6% higher. That represents a 418.2% difference in return on closed positions. Unfortunately, though, even with 2 assignments this week, there are very few closed positions on the year.

There was again absolutely no theme to the week.

Again.

The market did just what it did last week. It either made no move at all, or really big moves.

Stocks did and didn’t really follow oil and they didn’t nercessarily follow retail earnings.

It seems that they were more concerned with what may be a rising price environment that could offer the FOMC reason to push their own rates higher.

When Friday was all said and done, the week ended a three week losing streak and brought may 2016’s option cycle to an end.

I was reasonably happy for the week, mostly because there were some rollovers, some assignments and one paltry ex-dividend position.

Unfortunately, there were also some positions that expired and aren’t contributing any income beginning on Monday.

With the assignments, though, there may be some more reason and ability to go and spend money.

Still, I’d rather put the laggards to work, even as there may be some bargain looking positions out there.

With no positions expiring next week and only 2 ex-dividend positions, I would definitely like to have an opportunity top generate some income, but I don’t feel like getting reckless.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  none

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  MRO (6/3)

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  CSCO (7/2016), FAST (9/2016)

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned: CY, HPE

Calls Expired:  BBBY, M, STX

Puts Assig
ned
:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions  MRO (5/16 $0.05)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  HFC (5/25 $0.33), IP (5/25 $0.44)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



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Daily Market Update – May 20, 2016

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Daily Market Update – May 20, 2016 (7:30 AM)


The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments:  CY, HPE

Rollovers:  CSCO

Expirations:  BBBY, M, STX

The following were rolled over earleir in the week:  MRO (6/3), BBY (8/19).

Shares likely to be assigned may still be rolled over if forward volatility or a dividend makes that an attractive action.

The following were ex-dividend this week:

The following will be ex-dividend next week:  HFC (5/25 $0.33), IP (5/25 $0.44)

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM


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Daily Market Update – May 19, 2016 (Close)

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Daily Market Update – May 19, 2016 (Close)


After another 2 days of big moves in opposite directions, yesterday ended the day flat, although it did have its moments.

This morning the futures are moderately lower, despite some decent earnings news from 2 of the DJIA members.

The other day when Home Depot reported good numbers and traded up sharply in the pre-opening session, those gains faded very quickly along with the rest of the market.

With that as a recent backdrop and more and more betting that the FOMC may now actually make an interest rate move at their June 2016 meeting, anything can happen.

For my part, I’m not really looking ahead.

I just wanted to be able to get something done today or tomorrow, as I still had a number of positions expiring along with the end of the May 2016 option cycle.

Yesterday, I was actually happy to rollover the Marathon Oil position, even though it was in the money, as I do like getting the elevated premium and would continue to do it over and over again if the opportunities continue to arise.

Today, I was happy being able to rollover the out of the money Fastenal position, even as it required going out to August, continuing a pattern that began in 2015.

While the market was somewhat lower this morning, I was looking at doing the same with some other positions set to expire, as was done with Marathon Oil yesterday,even if there’s a chance for assignment.

Locking in on winners may be an easier approach than looking to select some new ones as uncertainty still reigns.

What we didn’t have today was much in the way of winners, although the market cut its losses in half and actually had some good earnings from 2 DJIA components, which explained its ability to outperform the S&P 500 by 50% on the day.

Despite being so close to market all time highs, very few people are talking as if they’re at or near personal all time highs, so trying to out think or out wit this market has proven fairly fruitless other than for those that have really been at the right place at the right time.

There’s nothing wrong with being lucky and the age old saying about being smart or being lucky may really have application in this market.

I hope there’s some good luck left over tomorrow and some trades or some assignments to go along with that luck.


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Daily Market Update – May 19, 2016

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Daily Market Update – May 19, 2016 (7:30 AM)


After another 2 days of big moves in opposite directions, yesterday ended the day flat, although it did have its moments.

This morning the futures are moderately lower, despite some decent earnings news from 2 of the DJIA members.

The other day when Home Depot reported good numbers and traded up sharply in the pre-opening session, those gains faded very quickly along with the rest of the market.

With that as a recent backdrop and more and more betting that the FOMC may now actually make an interest rate move at their June 2016 meeting, anything can happen.

For my part, I’m not really looking ahead.

I just want to be able to get something done today or tomorrow, as I still have a number of positions expiring along with the end of the May 2016 option cycle.

I was actually happy to rollover the Marathon Oil position, even though it was in the money, as I do like getting the elevated premium and would continue to do it over and over again if the opportunities continue to arise.

While the market is somewhat lower this morning, I may look at doing the same with some other positions set to expire, even if there’s a chance for assignment.

Locking in on winners may be an easier approach than looking to select some new ones as uncertainty still reigns.

Despite being so close to market all time highs, very few people are talking as if they’re at or near personal all time highs, so trying to out think or out wit this market has proven fairly fruitless other than for those that have really been at the right place at the right time.

There’s nothing wrong with being lucky and the age old saying about being smart or being lucky may really have application in this market.


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Copyright 2016 TheAcsMan