Monthly Archives: March 2016

Daily Market Update – March 29, 2016 (7:30 AM)

Yesterday was as quiet a trading day as we may have seen all year.

The trading range in the DJIA was less than 100 points and there was never any real feeling that things would break out in either direction.

While we have to wait until the end of the week for the Employment Situation Report, we may not have to wait that long for things to break out in either direction.

That’s because Janet Yellen speaks today and over the course of the remainder of the week there will be some other opportunities for other members of the Federal reserve to try and capture the spotlight.

Increasingly, those other members try to put their own spin on things and they aren’t always in line with what used to be a single and unified voice.

That has caused some gyrations over the past couple of years and it seems increasingly so  during the Yellen term.

That likely has nothing to do with Yellen, but more to do with circumstances.

During most of Bernanke’s tenure everyone was pretty much in agreement over what needed to be the direction of interest rates and most everyone was singular in their determination to prevent disaster.

It’s a little different now and I would guess that even if Bernanke was still Chairman of the Federal Reserve, we would be hearing more and more personal o[pinions and dissension being expressed.

This morning, ahead of Chairman Yellen’s comments the market is again flat, as was the world overnight.

Oil, too, was fairly subdued yesterday, but the market didn’t follow it’s changing directions and its net change on the day very closely.

As long as oil may head lower, that’s fine, but if there’s a reason for oil to resume some of the strength it had seen in the previous month, i hope that stocks remember to follow along, even if not entirely rational to do so.

With no new purchases yesterday, I still am in the market to do something, but may be increasingly looking at some of those positions that are ex-dividend next Monday.

My preference is still to be able to generate some income from selling calls on uncovered positions and do have some in mind, waiting for appropriate bids.

Otherwise, this week may just be a story of conflicting stories and views of the economy while we await jobs news to end the week.

Ultimately, we’ll all be asking why anyone was afraid of a 0.25% interest rate increase.

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Daily Market Update – March 28, 2016 (Close)

With markets re-opening today after celebration of Good Friday, much of the world’s markets were still closed for Easter Monday.

Last week, there was almost no economic news to have to think about, but instead everyone was focused on the horrible events in Brussels and now we began the week wondering about more tragedy in Pakistan, only to have the afternoon interrupted by a brief scare in the US Capitol.

But through it all, the market barely budged today, taking its cue from last week’s dispassionate trading.

Somehow markets were able to essentially ignore last week’s non-economic news and when faced with the news that the GDP, which was announced on Friday as markets were closed, was better than expected, still refused to act or react in an . overboard fashion.

This week we will have the monthly Employment Situation Report and another good month, especially if coupled with some increasing wage growth, could signal that some of the disparate voices among the Federal Reserve may be right.

What they may be right about is that the economy warrants an increase in interest rates now, rather than later.

That may be somewhat different from the message Janet Yellen had recently sent, as the Federal Reserve Governors are getting less and less reserved about voicing their opinions, even when perceived as counter to the Chairman.

The once unquestioned Chairman.

This week looked as if it would get started where so many recent trading sessions have begun the day.

Flat. And it stayed that way the entire day, trading in less than a 100 point range on the DJIA.

While we do await Friday’s news there will be plenty of opportunities to hear from some of those Federal Reserve people, so we’ll see what they can stir up.

In the meantime, if the Employment Situation Report numbers are strong, we may find out fairly soon whether we’re back to good news being bad and bad news being good.

Also, last week gave some indication that stocks and oil may be easing up their tight association of late, so we’ll see whether the market can continue to withstand any of the recent weakness in oil. Today, some of that disassociation continued.

My goal this week is like most.

I just want to generate some income.

With some ex-dividend positions this week and an expiring position, I wouldn’t mind opening some new positions, but feel less of the need to do so.

As has been the case for what seems like the longest time, I’d love to see some market rally bring some uncovered positions closer to getting some cover and making them contributing members to the portfolio.

With lots of energy positions that has been a difficult goal, but as long as fundamentals don’t seem to matter in the energy sector, there’s always that chance.

For now, I hope that stocks and energy continue traveling together just to have some of those income opportunities spread more broadly, but I expect that this week will end up being a fairly quiet one from a personal trading perspective.

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Daily Market Update – March 28, 2016 (9:00 AM)

With markets re-opening today after celebration of Good Friday, much of the world’s markets are still closed for Easter Monday.

Last week, there was almost no economic news to have to think about, but instead everyone was focused on the horrible events in Brussels and now we begin the week wondering about more tragedy in Pakistan.

Somehow markets were able to essentially ignore last week’s news and were faced with the news that the GDP, which was announced on Friday as markets were closed, was better than expected.

This week we will have the monthly Employment Situation Report and another good month, especially if coupled with some increasing wage growth, could signal that some of the disparate voices among the Federal Reserve may be right.

What they may be right about is that the economy warrants an increase in interest rates now, rather than later.

That may be somewhat different from the message Janet Yellen had recently sent, as the Federal Reserve Governors are getting less and less reserved about voicing their opinions, even when perceived as counter to the Chairman.

The once unquestioned Chairman.

This week looks as if it will get started where so many recent trading sessions have begun the day.

Flat.

While we do await Friday’s news there will be plenty of opportunities to hear from some of those Federal Reserve people, so we’ll see what they can stir up.

In the meantime, if the Employment Situation Report numbers are strong, we may find out fairly soon whether we’re back to good news being bad and bad news being good.

Also, last week gave some indication that stocks and oil may be easing up their tight association of late, so we’ll see whether the market can continue to withstand any of the recent weakness in oil.

My goal this week is like most.

I just want to generate some income.

With some ex-dividend positions this week and an expiring position, I wouldn’t mind opening some new positions, but feel less of the need to do so.

As has been the case for what seems like the longest time, I’d love to see some market rally bring some uncovered positions closer to getting some cover and making them contributing members to the portfolio.

With lots of energy positions that has been a difficult goal, but as long as fundamentals don’t seem to matter in the energy sector, there’s always that chance.

For now, I hope that stocks and energy continue traveling together just to have some of those income opportunities spread more broadly, but I expect that this week will end up being a fairly quiet one from a personal trading perspective.

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MONDAY:   With GDP announced on Good Friday being a little stronger than expected, this week’s Employment Situation Report, if strong, could send the signal that another interest rate hike is going to be upon us. Is that good or bad for stock markets?

TUESDAY:  Janet Yellen speaks today and other Federal reserve Governors follow during the rest of the week leading up to Friday’s Employment Situation report, as the morning looks to continue yesterday’s ennui.

WEDNESDAY: Janet Yellen’s dovish tone yesterday has the rally continuing today in the pre-open, as the futures are also continuing to head its own way, apart from the direction of oil

THURSDAY: After 2 days of Janet Yellen induced optimism, the futures may be signaling a little break as we await tomorrow’s Employment Situation Report to see whether or not the economy is also taking a little break

FRIDAY:.  Just ahead of the Employment Situation Report release, futures are lower, but there’s no telling what a surprising number in either direction will lead to