Daily Market Update – December 27, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  December 27, 2016 (9:00 AM)


The final week of 2016.

For lots of reasons, I can’t wait, but will still be sad to see it go.

It will also be a pretty quiet week on the planned news front, at least as far as economic reports go and earnings are done, at least for another few weeks.

That leaves us with a market where traders may be rolling the dice.

Will there be strategic tax loss selling? Will there be opportunity to take advantage of expected light volume?

Will anything unexpected happen anywhere just from an errant Tweet or fake news story?

Amazing that those latter two are even a thing.

So, regardless of what this week’s trades may or may not bring, it was by far my least busy trading year since I’ve started doing what I’m about to give up doing.

It’s also the slowest trading year since I started trading, with temerity, on my own.

I hope that changes next year, although I hope that the end result and the bottom line continue along the same path.

With still way too much in commodities, I think that 2017 will be another good year, regardless of what happens with the overall market.

I plan on trying to leverage those long dormant positions with every possible opportunity in 2017 and trading more and more, even if not opening as many new positions.

I also plan to going longer term, as I’m getting a little older and not as keen about keeping an eye on news and events day in and day out.

Although I never get bored, all of the above is subject to change if the slightest bit of boredom creeps in.

I do know what I like, but I’m not certain of how I might respond to boredom, so it may be best to be prepared to go back to what I know I like.

This week, I have cash.

I do like that.

I also have some inclination to spend cash.

I like that, too.

I have some ex-dividend positions.

Like.

And a couple of expiring positions.

Like that, too.

So, even as not expecting much on the week, I;m approaching it with a smile and am ready to go, even of only for 4 days.

Hopefully, whatever few days are left will usher in a nice and welcoming 2017 for all of us.

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Dashboard – December 26 – 30, 2016

 

 

 

SELECTIONS

MONDAY:   Happy Boxing Day

TUESDAY:    Looks like maybe another quiet day in what could be a quiet week and maybe even a quiet end to the new year

WEDNESDAY:  More quietude appears to be in store today as the futures are still in bed, not having gotten out of there since sometime a week ago

THURSDAY:  A surprising decline yesterday looks like it will be followed by the more normal slumber, today

FRIDAY:. It looks as if 2016 may go out on the quiet side, bringing a pretty good year to an end. Sorry to see it go, actually in many ways.

I hope that 2017 brings the best for everyone in all of the ways that really matter

 

 

 

 

                                                                                                                                           

Today's TradesCash-o-Meter

 

 

 

 “SNEAK PEEK AT NEXT WEEK” APPEARS ON FRIDAYS

Sneak PeekPie Chart Distribution

Weekly Summary

  

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Week in Review – December 19 – 23, 2016

 

Option to Profit

Week in Review


December 19 – 23, 2016

NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED EX-DIVIDEND
0  /   0 0 4 0   /   0 0   /   0 0 3

 

Weekly Up to Date Performance

December 19 – 23, 2016

One week left to go in 2016 and we are knocking on the door of 20,000 on the DJIA.

Unbelievable.

The market was basically unchanged for the week and there were no new positions opened.

For the most part, I haven’t minded going along for the ride, although the past week was another one where commodities and retail were weak, so I didn’t care for that part of things.

What I did like was the ability to rollover a number of positions and getting my share of dividends, while still keeping cash at a level that gives me lots of options as 2017 arrives.

Even with the weakness in commodities, 2016 continues to have been a great year.

I’m really looking forward to 2017, especially since I don’t think that I was able to say the same thing for each of the past 2 years.

While there’s no volatility in sight, I think that the next year is going to bring lots of opportunity the old fashioned way.

That means no artificially induced buying from low interest rates and no indiscriminate repurchasing of shares to move them higher.

Instead, I think that we are finally getting to that point that corporate earnings are actually going to be good.

Of course, that has to be balanced with what may be an increasingly high interest rate environment, with upward pressure on rates coming faster than may have ever been expected.

That may be what’s in store as we look at the possibility of an already fully employed work force and the possibility of infrastructure projects coming, as promised.

That may be a good combination for the economy, but a quicker rate of upward pressure on wages and prices may not be the best thing for stocks, unless the stocks are materials and commodity centric.

So that’s why I’m excited about 2017 just continuing the overall story of my 2016 experience.

Hopefully, the 2017 experience will also include more trades, more income and a continued ability to beat the S&P 500 at its own game.

We’ll see about that.

But for now, the only thing that matters is that everyone be in a best position as possible to have the Merriest possible Christmas and to have a happy and a healthy New Year.

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as in the summary below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  none

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle:   none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  MRO

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: DOW

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO: none

Put contracts expired: none

Put contracts rolled over: CLF

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  none

Calls Expired:  none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions   LVS (12/19 $0.72), GDX (12/19 $0.055), DOW (12/23 $0.46)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: CY (12/27 $0.11), GPS (12/30 $0.23)

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, ANF, AZN, BBBY, BBY, CHK, CLF, COH, CSCO,  CY, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, GM, GPS, HAL, HFC, HPQ, INTC, IP, JCP, JOY, KMI, KSS, LVS, MCPIQ, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLTGQ, WY (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



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Weekend Update – December 25, 2016

 It’s the end of the world as we know it

…And I feel fine.

Whoever thought that we would live to see the day that the President-Elect would be running a parallel foreign policy?

Whoever thought we would live to see the day that Republicans were cozying up to the Russian government while the Democrats were sounding the siren?

Then again, did anyone really believe that Great Britain would split from the European Union?

Maybe it really is the end of the world as we know it.

The one good thing is that as best as we can project, life in a post-apocalyptic world will probably be characterized by lower tax rates.

That can only add to the feeling fine sensation and I certainly look forward to the little considered benefits of an apocalypse.

While the world may not be ending, 2016 is coming to an end and after a very palpable post-election rally, it’s not very clear where we go next.

I certainly don’t know where I go next.

In less than a month populism meets reality and the direction may become more clear. At the moment, the only thing that really is clear is that populism is a world wide phenomenon, which means that lots of world-wide enemies are being identified to account for all of the ills any particular society may be experiencing.

 

Continue reading on Seeking Alpha

 

 

 

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Daily Market Update – December 23, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  December 23, 2016 (9:00 AM)


The Week in Review will be posted by 10 PM and the Weekend Update will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The following trade outcomes are possible today:

Assignments: none

Rollovers: None

Expirations:   none

The following were ex-dividend this week:    GDX (12/19 $0.055), LVS (12/19 $0.72), DOW (12/23 $0.46)  

The following are ex-dividend next week:  CY (12/27 $0.11), GPS (12/30 $0.23)


Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

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Daily Market Update – December 22, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  December 22, 2016 (7:30 AM)


Was the week before Christmas…..

We all know how the famous poem goes, but there’s not much stirring in these stock markets, either.

That’s how the view is this morning, as well, although we are awaiting a GDP report before the open.

Unless the results are very, very unexpected, there’s probably not too much reason to expect that stocks will do anything but what they’ve been doing all week.

That is, nothing.

That’s fine by be, as I think I’ve made pretty much all of the trades that I need to make, other than for some of those personal DOH trades that I hope to be doing a lot more of in 2017.

If you have the time and the stomach lining to deal with those, they can really be a great example of making lemonade out of lemons, as long as you also have the stocks in sufficient quantity to really make it worthwhile.

The bad news, of course, is that I have those big losers in big enough positions to make it worthwhile.

But when I look at the income stream that they can generate if not minding the hyper-focus and Rolaids necessary, they are the equivalent of a well paying job.

These days, that’s appealing in and of itself and I do believe that 2017 will really be a year of commodity prices, as we look at infrastructure program initiatives in the US and maybe some awakening in China.

Of course, with that may come the fear that will eventually return as we start thinking about multiple interest rate increases, but that’s an issue for another day.

I expect to be doing little today and am looking forward to a couple of holiday shortened trading weeks as I also count my time down.


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Daily Market Update – December 21, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update –  December 21, 2016 (Close)


For as quiet of a day as yesterday was, there were certainly plenty of trading opportunities.

Enough so, that I’m not left with any more rollovers for the week, at least not for positions expiring this week.

I even, uncharacteristically rolled over some positions not expiring for another 4 weeks, although both were dividend related rollovers.

This morning seemed as if it was going to get off to a quiet start, but for the most part, that has been the story since the election.

There really haven’t been any days that have telegraphed a large move up or down in the futures.

The market has just kept its steam and moved higher, a little at a time.

That definitely reminds me of 2007.

Back then, it seemed as if each and every day, heading into October of that year, was just one new high after another.

I don’t think that the next chapter is going to be like the one that followed those October 2007 highs, but I do like my cash position now much better than I did back then.

Or even a month ago.

So, for the rest of the week, I will probably be a bystander, although I still wouldn’t mind parting with some money.

Today wasn’t the day to do so, though and it did end up being a really quiet kind of a day.

Maybe even boring.

I almost parted with some money yesterday, with a name that wasn’t on the list this week and gave it another look or two today and maybe again tomorrow.

Otherwise, it could be a snoozer, even as we do have a GDP coming our way tomorrow,


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Daily Market Update – December 21, 2016

 

 

Daily Market Update –  December 21, 2016 (7:30 AM)


For as quiet of a day as yesterday was, there were certainly plenty of trading opportunities.

Enough so, that I’m not left with any more rollovers for the week, at least not for positions expiring this week.

I even, uncharacteristically rolled over some positions not expiring for another 4 weeks, although both were dividend related rollovers.

This morning seems as if it is going to get off to a quiet start, but for the most part, that has been the story since the election.

There really haven’t been any days that have telegraphed a large move up or down in the futures.

The market has just kept its steam and moved higher, a little at a time.

That definitely reminds me of 2007.

Back then, it seemed as if each and every day, heading into October of that year, was just one new high after another.

I don’t think that the next chapter is going to be like the one that followed those October 2007 highs, but I do like my cash position now much better than I did back then.

Or even a month ago.

So, for the rest of the week, I will probably be a bystander, although I still wouldn’t mind parting with some money.

I almost did so yesterday, with a name that wasn’t on the list this week and will give it another look or two today.

Otherwise, it could be a snoozer, even as we do have a GDP coming our way tomorrow,


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Daily Market Update – December 20, 2016 (Close)

 

 

Daily Market Update –  December 20, 2016 (Close)


Yesterday was a pretty quiet day and it didn’t seem like today, or maybe even the rest of the year would be any different.

At the moment, there are far too many people calling for the market to continue moving higher, but it did anyway, today.

Even though I’ve been one of those people, I’ve been happy to be adding to my cash position, especially since there are so many people thinking that the next stop can only be higher.

One thing that history has taught us is that populism grows old very quickly.

It’s much easier to carp than to govern, so we’ll see just how all of this comes together, although there has to be reason to be hopeful in the near term.

A big part of that, though, has to be related to where we are finally on the economic cycle.

One of the slowest recoveries in history is finally seeming to get some traction and it looks as if we are also finally going to get some fuel added to the mix.

That may make things a little combustible, but it has been a long, long time since all of those cylinders have been firing.

I still may want to dip into my cash pile, but at this point, I would be much happier if I could make whatever I currently hold go to work.

That and getting a couple of rollovers for the week.

For my mouth to someone’s ear, because that’s exactly how today worked out, potentially leaving me nothing to do for the rest of the week.

I did try to make some of those rollover trades early yesterday and did really jump the gun on one that expires at the end of the month, but I was glad to see those trades get made today.

I would be especially glad to have an opportunity to close out the rolled over short put position in the event that Cliffs Natural Resources has another strong day tomorrow.

At this point, I want to accumulate income, income, income. Even if it means tying something down longer.

If that means holding onto something to get an additional 2% per month, I would be more than happy to be doing that ad infinitum.

If only….

That was the case with today’s rollover of Bristol Myers Squibb, which goes ex-dividend shortly after New Year’s and the case with Dow Chemical a few days ago, as it goes ex-dividend on Friday.

With those, I no longer mind if they get called early, as I will have already gotten the dividend in the form of more premium.

I don’t otherwise expect to be doing too much this week, but then again, I didn’t expect the market to be doing too much today and maybe not again in 2016.

Those expectations, though, do have a way of coming back at you.

Today, at least, that came back in a good way.



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