Weekend Update – July 13, 2014

In the past month Janet Yellen has reaffirmed the commitment to keeping stocks the preferred investment vehicle yet after the initial euphoria, skepticism and askance looks greeted any attempts to set even more new record highs.

For stock investors the greatest gift of all was there, delivered on a platter, just waiting to be taken advantage of this past week. But we didn’t do so, maybe having learned a lesson from Greek mythology and avoiding obvious and superficial temptation.

Unfortunately, the application of that lesson may have been misguided as the temptations offered by the Federal Reserve had already run fairly deep, having already been acknowledged to have fueled much of the years long rally in stocks.

Instead of focusing on accepting and making good use of the gifts this past week it didn’t take long to re-ignite talk of the beginning of the long overdue correction after a failed start to the week’s trading.

The week itself was a bizarre one with some fairly odd stories diverting attention from what really mattered.

There was the frivolous news of a wildly successful potato salad Kickstarter campaign, the inconsequential news of the demise of Crumbs (CRMB), the laughably sad news of the sudden appearance of a seemingly phony social media company in Belize with a $5 billion market capitalization while the SEC slept and feel good news of LeBron James taking his talents back to the fine people of Cleveland.

Somewhere in-between was also the news that a Portuguese bank was having some difficulty paying back short term debt obligations.

Talk of an impending correction came before this week’s FOMC statement release, which did much to erase the previous two days of weakness, but it was short lived, as fears related to the European banking system swept through the European markets and made their ways to our shores on Thursday.

This was yet another week when the market wasn’t willing to accept the assurance of continuing gifts from the Federal Reserve after the initial giddiness upon the delivery of its news. While we all know that sooner or later the gifts from the Federal Reserve will slow down and then stop altogether in advance of that time when it actually begins to impede our over-fed avarice, there isn’t too much reason to refuse the gifts that are still there to be given. While perhaps those gifts could be viewed as an entitlement perhaps the additional lesson learned is that we are resilient enough to not allow a natural sense of cautionary behavior to be disarmed.

Somehow, I doubt that’s the case, just as I doubt that Greek mythology has taught very many or lasting lessons to many of us lately.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or “PEE” categories.

Puts I sold on Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY) that I sold a few weeks ago expired this past week, as they were within easy range of assignment or in need of rollover on Friday until murmurings of a leveraged buyout started to lift shares.

Had those murmurings waited until sometime on Monday I might have considered them as a gift, as I wanted to now add shares to my portfolio. However, coming as they did, although securing the ability to see the puts sold expire worthless, may have snatched a gift away, as I rarely want to chase a stock once it has started moving higher. However, on any weakness that see shares trading lower to begin the week, I would be anxious to add shares as I believe Bed Bath and Beyond was already in recovery mode from the strong selling pressure after it reported earnings a few weeks ago.

The Gap (GPS) continues to be one of the dwindling few that report monthly sales statistics. As it does, it regularly has paroxysms of movement when those statistics are released. Rarely does it string together more than two successive months of consistent data, such that its share price bounces quite a bit, despite shares themselves not being terribly volatile in the longer run. Those movements often provide nice option premiums and makes The Gap an attractive buy, although it can also be a frustrating position, as a result. However, it is one that I frequently like as part of my portfolio and currently do own shares. This most recent report on Friday don’t send shares moving as much as in the recent past, however, it did create an opportunity to consider the addition of more shares.

With earnings season beginning to high gear this week there is no shortage of potential candidates. However, unless most weeks when considering earnings related trades I only think in terms of put sales and would prefer not to own shares.

That is certainly the case with SanDisk (SNDK).

The option market believes that there may be a 6.6% movement in either direction next week upon earnings being released. However, a 1.1% ROI can potentially be achieved at a strike level that is outside of the range implied by the option market, making it an appealing trade, if willing to also manage the position in the event that assignment may be likely by attempting to roll over the put sale to a new time period.

On the other hand both Blackstone (BX) and Cypress Semiconductor (CY) are shares that I would want to own
at a lower price and would consider accepting assignment rather than rolling over and trying to stay one step ahead of assignment.

In the case of Cypress Semiconductor, whose products are quietly ubiquitous, since it has only monthly options available, there aren’t good opportunies to try such evasive techniques, so being prepared for ownership is a requisite if selling puts. Shares have traded in an identifiable range, so if assigned and patient there’s liukely to be an escape path while collecting option premiums and perhaps dividends, as well.

Blackstone is off from its recent highs and has been a beneficiary of the rash of IPO offerings of late. While I wouldn’t mind owning shares again at this level, the fact that it offers many expanded weekly options does allow for the possibility of managing the position through rollovers in the event that assignment may be imminent. However, with a generous dividend upcoming there may also be reason to consider ownership if assignment may be likely.

Finally, A stock that I love to own is Fastenal (FAST). To me it represents a snapshot of the US economy. Depending on your perspective when the economy does well, Fastenal does well or when Fastenal is doing well the economy is doing well. While that’s fairly simple and easy to understand, even if not entirely validated, what is always less easy to understand is how a stock responds to its earnings reports. In this case shares of Fastenal tumbled as top line numbers were very good, but margins were decreasing.

While that may not be great news for Fastenal and it certainly wasn’t for its shareholders today, the growth in sales revenues may be a positive sign for the economy. For me, the negative response provides opportunity to once again own shares and to do so as either a potential short term purchase or with a longer term horizon.

While Fastenal trades only monthly options with this being the final week of the July 2014 cycle it could potentially be purchased with the mindset of a weekly option trader. However, in the event that shares aren’t assigned, they do go ex-dividend the following week, so there may be reason to consider immediately considering an August 2014 option in hedging the share purchase.

Traditional Stocks: Bad Bath and Beyond, Fastenal, The Gap

Momentum: none

Double Dip Dividend: none

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: Blackstone, Cypress Semiconductor, SanDisk

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. The above selections may become actionable, most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts, in adjustment to and consideration of market movements. The overriding objective is to create a healthy income stream for the week with reduction of trading risk.

Week in Review – July 7 – 11, 2014

 

Option to Profit Week in Review
July 7 – 11,  2014
 
NEW POSITIONS/STO NEW STO ROLLOVERS CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED CLOSED
3 / 3 2 12 3  / 1 0  / 0 0

    

Weekly Up to Date Performance

July 7 – 11, 2014


New purchases for the week beat the unadjusted S&P 500 by 1.4% and surpassed the adjusted index by 0.9%

The market disappointed for the week just as it did a few weeks ago despite having rallied on Federal Reserve reassurances to close the prior weeks.

For a change the market didn’t set new record upon new record and instead had people talking out loud again about the correction that most rational people believe will becoming, but are still uncertain whether it will be coming in anyone’s natural lifetime.

New positions continued to be minimal in number and they didn’t have to do very well to surpass the performance of the overall market. It was a week when mediocrity was far better than the averages. As always whenever there is a small number of new positions all it takes is a single over or under-performer to diverge from the broad market. This week that wasn’t the case. Instead those new stocks had their performance buoyed by their premiums, which is what it’s all supposed to be about.

New purchases were 0.5% higher during a week that the market lost 0.9% on an unadjusted basis and 0.4% on an adjusted basis.

Performance of positions closed in 2014 didn’t change very much, but they continue to out-perform the S&P 500 performance by 1.4%. They were up 3.4% out-performing the market by 67.1%. 

For the first time in a very long time I actually had a plan and stuck to it.

Usually I have a plan but you never know how that first tick of the week will go and how things unfold. It’s always a good idea to have a Plan B, especially since that is most often the one that becomes the primary approach for the week.

Plan B is what was followed with the second trade in shares of Chesapeake Energy for the week. There was some arbitrage going on and it looked as if there might be an opportunity to buy shares, sell calls expiring the same day, roll them over and then sell next week’s in the money calls in the anticipation of shares being assigned early today to capture the dividend, as shares are trading ex-dividend to open the coming week.

That plan would have delivered almost a week’s worth of ROI in just a single day and without the need for the dividend to contribute to that return.

That remained the plan until the arbitrage interest disappeared as shares started trading below $28.42 and the price started to shrink even more. So plan B just simply rolled those shares over to next week to secure the dividend and start the process all over
again.

I would have been more excited if Plan B wasn’t engaged, but it’s usually preferable to Plan C.

Otherwise, using Plan B wasn’t the case this week, much to my surprise, as it was yet another week where there was absolutely no follow through to the boost provided by Janet Yellen the week earlier. A normal, rational thinking person would have suspected that maybe, just maybe, stocks would rise in continuation of the confidence inspired by the Federal Reserve.

Wrong.

But still, even with some optimism, Plan A was to try and hold off on spending too much and try to make the week’s income by concentrating on existing holdings. That’s been the plan for a while, but this week it seemed to come together better than in past weeks.

The hope that the plan this week would actually come together was more related to the fact that there were many positions due to expire this week and were at risk because of Wednesday’s FOMC release and the potential adverse reaction to the release.

So the plan was not to spend too much money, look for forward week expirations and try to rollover whatever was possible in advance of the FOMC, so as to not get overwhelmed by bad news or frightened investor behavior.

As it turned out the FOMC was benign, but the day after was anything but benign and had absolutely nothing to do with the FOMC.

Just like the script read.

Not really, but it worked out well in a week that didn’t do too much to inspire confidence.

 

 

 





 

     

This week’s details may be seen in the Weekly Performance spreadsheet * or in the PDF file, as well as as in the summary.below

(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):



New Positions Opened:  CHK, CHK, RIG

Puts Closed in order to take profits:  none

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycleBMY, BMY, CHK, HFC, WFM

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle:  DG, EBAY, FDO, FDO, GPS, JPM, KSS

Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle:  none

Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle: none

Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cyclenone

New STO:  EBAY (8/1), KSS (7/25)

Put contracts expiredBBBY

Put contract rolled over: none

Long term call contracts sold:  none

Calls Assigned:  GM, MA, PFE

Calls Expired:   none

Puts Assigned:  none

Stock positions Closed to take profits:  none

Stock positions Closed to take losses: none

Calls Closed to Take Profits: none

Ex-dividend Positions: GPS (7/7 $0.22), < span class="scayt-misspell" data-scayt_word="DRI" data-scaytid="107">DRI (7/8 $0.55), FCX (7/11 $0.31)

Ex-dividend Positions Next Week:  CHK (7/11 $0.09)

 

 

For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts:   AGQ, BMY, C, CLF, COH, EBAY, FCX, HFC, JCP, KSS, LULU, MCP, MOS,  NEM, PFE, PBR , RIG, TGT, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)



* If you don’t have a program to read or modify spreadsheets, you can download the OpenOffice Suite at no cost.



Daily Market Update – July 11, 2014

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – Jul 11, 2014 (9:00 AM)

The Week in Review will be posted by 6 PM and the Week in Review will be posted by Noon on Sunday.

The possible outcomes today include:

Assignments:  General Motors

Rollovers: Pfizer

Expirations: Bed Bath and Beyond (puts)

 

Trades, if any, will be attempted to be made prior to 3:30 PM EDT

 

Daily Market Update – July 10, 2014

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – Jul 10, 2014 (Close)

This morning no one in Europe seemed to like the fact that a Portuguese bank delayed repayment of some short term debt as a result of some auditing problems at its main shareholder’s investment company. That investment company also happens to be owned by the founding family of the bank, so there’s a tangled web.

A few years ago CNBC was looking for their word of the year and selected my suggestion of “Eurosis,” which came at a time when European banks and national economies were in shambles. But that word proved to not really be prescient as the year went on as some good ECB leadership helped to  ease fears amid the strong suggestion that whatever was necessary would be done to support the banking systems of such nations as Spain and Greece.

This morning it’s hard to know whether the Portuguese bank issue is an isolated one or will simply be the first to come to anyone’s attention. For those who like to draw visual kind of parallels someone, maybe me, is bound to say something like “there’s never just one cockroach,” or something like that, to describe the likely situation.

As it turned out a few minutes before the close, Dennis Gartman used that expression during a CNBC interview, so I felt pretty badly about that.

Whenever you wake up in the morning and see precious metals surging and stocks plunging, you know that there’s a big story somewhere. My first thought wasn’t to think about some banking crisis in Portugal, however. My first thought was centered on the Middle East, but I thought it somewhat odd that when tuning into various TV stations this morning there was really no discussion of the weak futures and no discussion of what was its root cause.

If the lessons from 2010 and 2011 are to be heeded, it’s that problems in the European banking system aren’t necessarily the sort of things that support the ability to start a contagion across the Atlantic Ocean.

Back then our own markets would respond in a sympathetic manner and then relatively quickly shrug its shoulders and wonder why we were bothering to slow down.Back then our own markets were on a decidedly upward trajectory and its momentum wasn’t about to be slowed down by much of anything and certainly not for very long. Now the momentum may not be gone, but it is stalled and the only moves higher of late have been related to assuring words from the Federal Reserve rather than from fundamental factors, such as earnings and revenues.

So this morning will be a little bit of a ride with some relief of not having spent too much opening new positions this week and having had some good luck and fortune in rolling over more than the usual number of positions for the week and h
aving done so unusually early in the week.

I should stress the word “luck.”

Had it not been for this week’s release of the FOMC statement there would have been little reason to consider the early rollovers as there was absolutely no reason to suspect a breaking story such as greeted us this morning.

But with the market seeming to slow down, despite all of the new record highs, a little bit of caution probably has made some sense, but as with most everything that caution has to be in balance with the ability to dip a toe in even when it seems chilly.

Today had the potential to offer some opportunity even if taking advantage of any apparent opportunity could also potentially simply be a case of having faith too early. However, if taking advantage of re-purchasing recently assigned positions at lower prices is the outcome, then being too early isn’t the worst thing in the world and simply relieves the burden of some of the intermediate drop in price had shares been part of a buy and hold strategy.

We’ll see. We’ll see.

 

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – July 10, 2014

 

 

 

Daily Market Update – Jul 10, 2014 (9:15 AM)

This morning no one in Europe seemed to like the fact that a Portuguese bank delayed repayment of some short term debt as a result of some auditing problems at its main shareholder’s investment company. That investment company also happens to be owned by the founding family of the bank, so there’s a tangled web.

A few years ago CNBC was looking for their word of the year and selected my suggestion of “Eurosis,” which came at a time when European banks and national economies were in shambles. But that word proved to not really be prescient as the year went on as some good ECB leadership helped to  ease fears amid the strong suggestion that whatever was necessary would be done to support the banking systems of such nations as Spain and Greece.

This morning it’s hard to know whether the Portuguese bank issue is an isolated one or will simply be the first to come to anyone’s attention. For those who like to draw visual kind of parallels someone, maybe me, is bound to say something like “there’s never just one cockroach,” or something like that, to describe the likely situation.

Whenever you wake up in the morning and see precious metals surging and stocks plunging, you know that there’s a big story somewhere. My first thought wasn’t to think about some banking crisis in Portugal, however. My first thought was centered on the Middle East, but I thought it somewhat odd that when tuning into various TV stations this morning there was really no discussion of the weak futures and no discussion of what was its root cause.

If the lessons from 2010 and 2011 are to be heeded, it’s that problems in the European banking system aren’t necessarily the sort of things that short support the ability for it to start a contagion across the Atlantic Ocean.

Back then our own markets would respond in a sympathetic manner and then relatively quickly shrug its shoulders and wonder why we were bothering to slow down.Back then our own markets were on a decidedly upward trajectory and its momentum wasn’t about to be slowed down by much of anything and certainly not for very long. Now the momentum may not be gone, but it is stalled and the only moves higher of late have been related to assuring words from the Federal Reserve rather than from fundamental factors, such as earnings and revenues.

So this morning will be a little bit of a ride with some relief of not having spent too much opening new positions this week and having had some good luck and fortune in rolling over more than the usual number of positions for the week and having done so unusually early in the week.

I should stress the word “luck.”

Had it not been for this week’s release of the FOMC statement there would have been little reason to consider the early rollovers as there was absolutely no reason to suspect a breaking story such as greeted us this morning.

But with the market seeming to slow down, despite all of the new record highs, a little bit of caution probably has made some sense, but as with most everything that caution has to be in balance with the ability to dip a toe in even when it seems chilly.

Today may offer some opportunity even if taking advantage of any apparent opportunity can simply be  a case of being too early. However, if taking advantage of re-purchasing recently assigned positions at lower prices is the outcome being too early isn’t the worst thing in the world and simply relieves the burden of some of the intermediate drop in price had shares been part of a buy and hoid strategy.

We’ll see. We’ll see.