Daily Market Update – October 1,  2015  (9:00 AM)

What the market has given or taken on one day hasn’t necessarily been the way the market acted the next day.

Sometimes that was a good thing and sometimes it wasn’t very good.

Today could have been a victory if the market could simply do as the futures were suggesting and just trade in an ambivalent way, following yesterday’s strong gain that happened to come after a one day breathing spell in the aftermath of Monday’s 300+ point loss.

Instead, it was a tale of two halves. The morning was just horrible, but almost precisely at Noon it turned around and erased almost every single bit of the morning’s loss. That turnaround came at the 1901 level on the S&P 500, which wasn’t really something that was appearing on anyone’s chart, but that’s where it turned on a dime.

That’s just the way things have been going as following the large plunge in August that took the market into correction territory, it’s just been a series of back and forth kind of days with very little net movement when all has been said and done.

Taking a little bit of a break today might also be a good thing considering that there’s not too much reason to want to stick your neck out too much ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation Report and would allow some opportunity to simply digest the gains from yesterday.

The shifting sands created by large moves in alternating directions just give no foundation for predictable movement and create an environment that’s really nothing different from a coin toss.

This week’s Employment SItuation Report may be the kind of data that could create some sort of foundation or break an existing one day. It may be more important than usual this month and could serve as some real fuel if it rekindles expectations of an interest rate hike or it could real dampen hopes for any reason for renewed buying.

Despite yesterday’s gain the S&P 500 is still slightly in correction territory and continues to straddle the line. Once the Employment Situation Report is out of the way next week begins another earnings season, that seems to have snuck up quickly and may begin to give some more tangible evidence of an improving economy and maybe the long awaited evidence of an oil dividend.

With a number of positions expiring tomorrow and none yet for next week, I would be equally happy with assignments or rollovers, but may want to take some pre-emptive measures for any positions that could become out of reach for either of those outcomes in the event of a strong downdraft tomorrow.

As long as volatility is keeping forward week premiums relatively higher than expiring week premiums there may be reason to take those pre-emptive steps and look for rollover opportunities today, rather than taking the risk of being taken out of contention tomorrow.

As is usually the case, it would be nice to have a mix of everything. New positions opened, rollovers, assignments, new call sales and dividends and there is still that chance this week, especially if  there’s some good news forthcoming tomorrow and today doesn’t end up being a day that gives back yesterday’s gains.

Daily Market Update – October 1,  2015  (9:00 AM)

What the market has given or taken on one day hasn’t necessarily been the way the market acted the next day.

Sometimes that was a good thing and sometimes it wasn’t very good.

Today it might be a victory if the market could simply do as the futures are suggesting and just trade in an ambivalent way, following yesterday’s strong gain that happened to come after a one day breathing spell in the aftermath of Monday’s 300+ point loss.

That’s just the way things have been going as following the large plunge in August that took the market into correction territory, it’s just been a series of back and forth kind of days with very little net movement when all has been said and done.

Taking a little bit of a break today might also be a good thing considering that there’s not too much reason to want to stick your neck out too much ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation Report and would allow some opportunity to simply digest the gains from yesterday.

The shifting sands created by large moves in alternating directions just give no foundation for predictable movement and create an environment that’s really nothing different from a coin toss.

This week’s Employment SItuation Report may be the kind of data that could create some sort of foundation or break an existing one day. It may be more important than usual this month and could serve as some real fuel if it rekindles expectations of an interest rate hike or it could real dampen hopes for any reason for renewed buying.

Despite yesterday’s gain the S&P 500 is still slightly in correction territory and continues to straddle the line. Once the Employment Situation Report is out of the way next week begins another earnings season, that seems to have snuck up quickly and may begin to give some more tangible evidence of an improving economy and maybe the long awaited evidence of an oil dividend.

With a number of positions expiring tomorrow and none yet for next week, I would be equally happy with assignments or rollovers, but may want to take some pre-emptive measures for any positions that could become out of reach for either of those outcomes in the event of a strong downdraft tomorrow.

As long as volatility is keeping forward week premiums relatively higher than expiring week premiums there may be reason to take those pre-emptive steps and look for rollover opportunities today, rather than taking the risk of being taken out of contention tomorrow.

As is usually the case, it would be nice to have a mix of everything. New positions opened, rollovers, assignments, new call sales and dividends and there is still that chance this week, especially if  there’s some good news forthcoming tomorrow and today doesn’t end up being a day that gives back yesterday’s gains.

Daily Market Update – September 30,  2015  (Close)

It’s not really clear what accounted for the morning’s futures pointing to an almost 200 point gain.

It could be that Asia was strong overnight, but that has been a very inconsistent indicator for about the last month. While the early part of our market’s decline definitely followed that in Asia, the uncertainty there has seemingly now been factored into our own thinking and largely discounted at this point, although you just never know what may come next from that part of the world, for better or worse.

Whatever it is that created this morning’s early rise, it wasn’t based upon any news, so it’s likely that it’s just more of the same going back and forth that we’ve seen ever since that breakdown between our markets an China, in particular. Since the, which includes the plunge that took us to our first 10% correction in years, there has been a continuing series of waves taking us up and down and in large moves.

Most of those moves have offset one another, although the net result has still had a negative bias and following Monday’s 300+ point decline everyone was running back to their charts to see where the next levels of support happened to be, just in case the next shoe were to drop.

Yesterday was the kind of day that today, by all rights should have been. There’s really not any news to account for any kind of large move, but of course, that didn’t stop Monday from happening and it didn’t stop today from happening either.

With the Employment Situation Report looming on Friday and the prospects that it may offer another in a lengthening series of strong results, comes the idea that maybe the FOMC will finally raise rates. That could have accounted for some of the early enthusiasm this morning just as it likely accounted for the early week strength that was quickly reversed two weeks ago when the FOMC disappointed most everyone by not announcing what had been widely expected.

With both Janet Yellen and Stanley Fischer scheduled to speak this week there may be some hints of what’s to come, but because the FOMC hasn’t been exactly straight forward, those hints will have to be very heavy handed if the market is going to take the bait.

With a couple of recent familiar faces having been this week’s new purchase positions, I was more than happy to see this morning’s strength and hoped that there’s still going to be some more continuation of it, or at least that the market settles in at around these levels as the week will come to its end.

If so, there could at least be some chance to see some assignments or some rollovers.

If so, especially if there are assignments of those same familiar faces, I wouldn’t mind the continuing opportunity to consider purchasing them again and again, which is the definite advantage of having a market of stocks that is really undecided about where it wants to go. As long as the volatility can remain at these or higher levels, there can be lots of advantage in not thinking too creatively, but rather just doing the same thing, and with the very same stocks,  over and over again.

At least today did bring some opportunity to sell some calls on a couple of uncovered positions utilizing some longer term options in the hope that time will bring some more recovery. But if not, or if insufficient, at least some more premiums and dividends are collected along the way to add up and make the waiting period a little bit easier.

With just 2 days remaining for this week, it is like a number of recent previous weeks. There’s no telling where we go from here as the indications are all over the place and still do nothing to instill confidence.

In just 2 weeks earnings start anew and I’m fairly optimistic about earnings this coming quarter, just as I was the last time around.

Hopefully, though, this time around it will work out as planned and won’t be a series of earnings disappointments that coincided with the beginnings of China’s meltdown.

Daily Market Update – September 30,  2015  (8:15 AM)

It’s not really clear what might account for the morning’s futures pointing to an almost 200 point gain.

It could be that Asia was strong overnight, but that has been a very inconsistent indicator for about the last month. While the early part of our market’s decline definitely followed that in Asia, the uncertainty there has seemingly now been factored into our own thinking and largely discounted at this point, although you just never know what may come next from that part of the world, for better or worse.

Whatever it is that’s creating this morning’s early rise, it isn’t based upon any news, so it’s likely that it’s just more of the same going back and forth that we’ve seen ever since that breakdown between our markets an China, in particular. Since the, which includes the plunge that took us to our first 10% correction in years, there has been a continuing series of waves taking us up and down and in large moves.

Most of those moves have offset one another, although the net result has still had a negative bias and following Monday’s 300+ point decline everyone was running back to their charts to see where the next levels of support happened to be, just in case the next shoe were to drop.

Yesterday was the kind of day that today, by all rights should be. There’s really not any news to account for any kind of large move, but of course, that didn’t stop Monday from happening and it may not stop today from happening.

With the Employment Situation Report looming on Friday and the prospects that it may offer another in a lengthening series of strong results, comes the idea that maybe the FOMC will finally raise rates. That could be accounting for some of the early enthusiasm this morning just as it likely accounted for the early week strentgh that was quickly reversed two weeks ago when the FOMC disappointed most everyone by not announcing what had been widely expected.

With both Janet Yellen and Stanley Fischer scheduled to speak this week there may be some hints of what’s to come, but because the FOMC hasn’t been exactly straight forward, those hints will have to be very heavy handed if the market is going to take the bait.

With a couple of recent familiar faces having been this week’s new purchase positions, I’m more than happy to see this morning’s strength and just hope that there’s some continuation of it, or at least that the market settles in at around these levels as the week will come to its end.

If so, there could at least be some chance to see some assignments or some rollovers.

If so, especially if there are assignments of those same familiar faces, I wouldn’t mind the continuing opportunity to consider purchasing them again and again, which is the definite advantage of having a market of stocks that is really undecided about where it wants to go. As long as the volatility can remain at these or higher levels, there can be lots of advantage in not thinking too creatively, but rather just doing the same thing, and with the very same stocks,  over and over again.

Daily Market Update – September 29,  2015  (Close)

If you are a fan of disappointment, your joy of yesterday wasn’t getting any less this morning.

Yesterday’s 300+ point loss didn’t have much of a basis for it, but it was amusing to hear so many talk about how the market was expressing a fear of an upcoming interest rate hike.

It really makes you wonder whether there is a collective deficit in short term memory or maybe those with airtime believe that the audience is either not listening or they are the ones suffering from short term memory issues.

This morning’s feeble attempt at a bounce back from yesterday’s large loss grew even more feeble as the pre-futures were edging closer to the opening bell and they weren’t offering too much encouragement. The day, as it would turn out, did nothing to make you believe that anything would get better tomorrow or the next day.

The decline yesterday took the S&P 500 well below the 10% correction level and once again people are looking at charts to give their predictions of where the market may go next if continuing to test support. Today’s gain did nothing to make things better, other than sneak 0.1% closer to not being in correction.

With the S&P 500 now sitting at 1881 to start the morning, it looks as if there is some support at about 1865 and then again not until 1820. From there, the next real stop is at about 1750.

That 1750 level would not quite represent the 20% decline level which is what is standardly seen in a bear correction.

Putting that in DJIA terms, which my mind still reverts to, those represent levels that are about 110, 480 and 1050 points lower.

WIth a couple of purchases yesterday, I thought that I’d be inclined to just sit and watch today and even if more “bargains” appeared to be popping up. Tomorrow may be no different and it may be a good idea to see just where the market can and will find support. Sometimes you just want to see some proof or some validation before you continue to stick your neck out even more.

Sticking the neck out, however, hasn’t been a very risky thing to do, but the moves have been so sudden on almost everything these days that victory is quickly snatched away. Fortunately, though, it is a little easier to find some rollover opportunities, maybe using longer term options, as long as the decline isn’t too swift and too drastic.

That, however, has definitely not been a given in any sense of the word as many stocks have exhibited some really large moves in the absence of any news.

Of course, as is usually the case, although we won’t see verification until earnings start pouring in, the level of corporate buyback activity has probably fallen as prices have.

That’ the typical perverse nature of things. 

While you and I are more apt to want to buy something when it looks value priced, corporate buyback programs are notorious for being indifferent to price and usually buying shares when they are moving strongly higher.

It doesn’t really matter when it’s other people’s money and your bonus is in part predicated on share performance. Why spend free cash to buy shares to prop up price and create support when it still leaves shares at a net loss and of no value to your bonus situation?

So even with all of that corporate cash still sitting around and set aside for buybacks, there’s much less left because so much was used at much higher levels and there’s no real incentive to use much of it now. Instead, those CEOs will likely wait for a market rebound and start buying again when it appears as if their activity may help to push shares above a certain threshold level that puts more bonus dollars in their own pockets.

What a system. You have to love it.